just like i treasure the emerging information...and form a concept (fundamental) of its probable implications on the company's valuation

Posted by probability > Dec 6, 2019 12:43 PM | Report Abuse X

no amount of reading can equip me to sense the emotions market have with every revelations of new information to the market...if i myself do not have these emotions..testosterone..adrenaline rush...and dopamine outburst...

..

i shall treasure these hormones like my gods

no amount of reading can equip me to sense the emotions market have with every revelations of new information to the market...if i myself do not have these emotions..testosterone..adrenaline rush...and dopamine outburst...

..

i shall treasure these hormones like my gods

Cocaine brain? love it..

im trying to get hooked for a while so that i can understand it better

a brain that understands a cocaine brain may very well be the ultimate investor....(especially for capital below 10 million)

getting hooked on cocaine and getting hooked on books is no different

there are millions of investors who are as hooked into reading like Li-kashing , Munger and Buffet ....who are losers in stock market....as much a the cocaine brains who lost.

stop quoting this successful guys' traits as a causal factor


conclusion:
..........

bookworm and cocaine brain...lets not discriminate between these two in a bias manner

.

on point no.3, it wouldn't take long for them to make new lines provided demand is there...

on demand ..i think its all about capturing new market share..and they have the competitive advantage to do that

however, having such knowledge is definitely an advantage provided one knows when to use and not...

but that skills requires another 1000 page book to read - or just a good 'intuition'

Just look at their phenomenal revenue growth year after year...

Posted by WhiteWolf > Dec 5, 2019 8:10 AM | Report Abuse

Sharing about Master. Their Quadwall patent details below. These fellas are really serious about building cardboard boxes lo

https://patents.google.com/patent/US8652613B2/en
https://patentimages.storage.googleapis.com/83/32/9e/e2ba603db91329/US...

Seems like their patent extends until 2031. Hope this plays out financially for Master

i also love Ricky Yeo.....

this shows humanity is doomed with all the knowledge and intelligence...

its like pets who are constantly provided with food ...until they continuously eat to their death due to obesity.....same thing can happen with knowledge...

the problem occurs when taste of food overtakes the need of energy....thirst of knowledge overtakes need of practical application..

.................

if M (making money) = function of (x, y, z,....etc)...and

y = function (p. q, r, s etc...)

each variable on the right side having an impact to y....and subsequently on M....

the program (the brain) overly spends energy on factoring and evaluating p, q, r, s.....till it neglects the sensitive-significant core factors x, y, z ...into its consideration...and also the factors itself change with time...its such a dynamic equation that..

to learn swimming...one need not calculate buoyancy law..bernoulli's principle , and stokes law ...they just need to jump into the pool and start kicking...

..................

i.e, ineffective & inefficient utilization of the limited brain power for the objective in hand..

Just to demystify on the complexity of the coal fired power plant so that one can have a feel based on their own perception on how long it takes for the commissioning.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal-fired_power_station#/media/File:PowerStation3.svg

anyone having direct experience on the commissioning - please share their opinion.

what was the Private Placement price he bought?

Surely they will be paying their workers overtime like crazy (to work day and night) for an expedited commissioning.

when all the incentives are there, why wouldn't they place in commercial operation much ahead of schedule?

Posted by probability > Dec 4, 2019 1:16 AM | Report Abuse X

EVN is also desperate for electricity for the consumers and also due to such Cheap Coal presently.

JAKS-CEEC would also want to bring it on - as they will be paid based on Capacity Charge too (based on power capacity made available) independent to consumption.

In my opinion, market have still not digested (cant even smell it..nose block perhaps!)....the meaning of the below event.

Its indeed very well possible to place the unit in commercial operation in 2 months.

Commissioning should not take more than 2 months after Site Readiness.

That is like 4 months ahead of schedule.



Posted by VIN3133 > Dec 4, 2019 1:02 AM | Report Abuse

English translation ( google translate) :
Power generation for Unit 2 of Vietnam ’s Hai Duong Coal-Fired Power Plant Project was successful

On December 3, local time, the company's construction of the 2 × 600,000-kilowatt coal-fired power plant project in Hai Duong , Vietnam, power generation for Unit 2 of Vietnam ’s Hai Duong Coal-Fired Power Plant Project was successfully completed.

The Hai Duong Project Department of Vietnam has formulated a thorough plan, organized relevant inspections before receiving electricity for power use in the plant, rectified the closed-loop problems one by one, and all measurement results met the requirements and had the power receiving conditions. With the electrification of the 11kV switch room and the normal operation of all equipment, the power plant of Unit 2 successfully received electricity once and officially entered the commissioning stage.

---------------------------------------------------------
Posted by Ricky Kiat > Dec 4, 2019 12:33 AM | Report Abuse

http://www.apcc2.ceec.net.cn/art/2019/12/3/art_8427_2029661.html
越南海阳燃煤电厂工程二号机组厂用电受电一次成功

Damn, they are really proceeding fast.

EVN is also desperate for electricity for the consumers and also due to such Cheap Coal presently.

JAKS-CEEC would also want to bring it on - as they will be paid based on Capacity Charge too (based on power capacity made available) independent to consumption.

i think you guys should just relocate to Master...such high margin of PPHB (20%) is not sustainable for long...unlike Master's which was contributed by higher Sales arising from foreign subsidiary...

so Ekovest gets nothing then? Looks like Botak shaved off all hairs from our head...

crazy movement...is it because of zahid ongoing case? totally unexpected drop

Jonathan choi buying...

That's bloody fantastic news actually.

http://www.jaks.com.my/ang-lam-poah.php

Ang Lam Poah is the brother to the Director, Ang Lam Aik. Save as disclosed, he does not have any family relationship with any other Director and/or major shareholder of the Company and has no conflict of interest with the Company. He has no convictions for offence within the past five years.

Sarifah, CEO Andy Ang Lam Poah and CFO Ang Si Eeng bukan saudara ke?

powerful article - makes me feel emotional

History of Chin Peng - Koon Yew Yin
Author: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Mon, 2 Dec 2019

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/242849.jsp

im from sitiawan too, my primary school headmaster was chin peng's brother

Ok thanks

yes the Operational costs is in VND, ok thanks.

DK66, would strengthening USD against VND benefit Jaks from the power plant BOT contract? or no difference?

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=VND&view=5Y

i guess volatility in exchange rate also falls on cost pass-through mechanism?

TP = (CC x AC) + (EC x EO) + SC

where, Suppl. Charge (SC) =

- Exchange Difference
- Compensation
- Other services

https://koonyewyin.com/2018/03/16/jaks-why-the-share-price-is-falling/

Extract from uncle' article above - quoted below:
................................

The CEO Andy Ang:

I must say Andy Ang is an exceptionally clever and shroud business man to be able to secure the 1,200 MW power plant contract from the Vietnamese Government and completely sub-contract to the Chinese party who has the technical ability and financial capacity to complete the power plant, which is valued at about Rm 7.76 billion.

The most important consideration is that Jaks does not need to borrow money from banks to finance the project and does not need to lay a brick to construct the huge power plant. In fact, the Chinese Sub-contractor and JV partner pays Jaks Rm 454 million during the 3 years of construction. Now I understand Jaks has already received about one third of the Rm 454 million.

In my 60 years’ experience in the construction contracting industry, I have never seen such a juicy contract as Jaks’ power plant contract. As an independent power producer selling electricity to the Vietnamese Government at a profitable rate for 25 years.

Its a pity Tenaga never took the opportunity back in 2015:

JAKS wooing Tenaga for Vietnam power plant, May 13, 2015

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/jaks-wooing-tenaga-vietnam-power-plant

Sources say the project’s IRR is at least 15% because the power purchase agreement is on a take-or-pay basis, which requires Vietnam Electricity to pay for the power generated whether or not there is demand for it.

The agreement also has cost-pass-through mechanisms, including any volatility in fuel costs and exchange rates. JPHD will be paid in US dollars, which will increase JAKS’ exposure to foreign exchange volatility as it will have to convert the money into dong to pay its operational costs.

Excellent article for reads below...

It gives a clear idea to derive the earnings and why Jaks managed to obtain such a fantastic deal in the first place.

...............


(1) Jaks Resources - Comparison with MFCB Hydro Plant

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/226512.jsp


(2) Jaks Resources - An excellent joint venture deal with CPECC

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/226058.jsp

eh..jangan promote status i...biar captain DK66 yang buat apa2 kesimpulan...i cuma validator...badan pengesahan fakta

ala...icon cuma guna nama saya sebagai alasan utk jual...kan harga jaks naik mendadak terlalu cepat....

i mana sifu...siput la....cuma boleh kaji benda2 yang tentang engineering...

Uncle Koon yang tahu menahu paling mendalam juga tak menafikan kenyataan power plant dalam artikel untuk kutuk Jaks ini :

JAKS: What investors must verify - Koon Yew Yin

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/229240.jsp


aku langsung tak percaya tuduhan dia yang power plant akan mengambil masa seperti dia katakan tu..

Insentif untuk Koon kutuk dengan bohongan terserlah kerana dia jual dengan kerugian dulu..

Post removed.Why?

(1) present COAL price chart: - shows spectacular decline in price

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price

COLUMN-Coal price slump in Asia even as demand grows shows supply is the issue: Russell, JUNE 12, 2019

https://www.reuters.com/article/column-russell-coal-asia-idUSL4N23J199

There are articles that says it will remain depressed as per above for next few years

..........................

(2) Knowing above and going through the below brilliant derivation from DK66, one can see JAKS could indeed be heading for a Jackpot.


Jaks Resources - Earning Forecast of Hai Duong Power Plant based on Government Data

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/228009.jsp

Note DK66 used price derived from February 12, 2019 article at = VND1.74m / 23,350 = US$74.5 per tonne.

Current price is below US$45 per tonne.

Nevertheless, one should note that he had explained the above is only applicable for none BOT - local coal power producers which are not subjected to the BOT contracts.

..........................


What is the fear then?

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/290361547820276005/pdf/133788-WP-OUO-9-Vietnam-Energy-MFD-Report-ENG-for-printing.pdf

Extract from page 33:
....................

The fundamental reason for EVN’s weak financial performance has been the failure to allow end-user electricity tariffs to keep pace with costs. Given EVN’s high level of operational efficiency, it is the relatively low level of end-user power tariffs that are largely to blame for the company’s weak financial performance. EVN’s tariffs have been frozen since 2015, and only in November 2017 increased to an average rate of US$0.076 per kilowatt-hour compared with the full cost of service, estimated at US$0.12 per kilowatt-hour in 2017.

To keep pace with planned investments, it is estimated that tariffs would need to continue to rise toward US$0.14 per kilowatt hour by the early 2020s. Moreover, the present tariff is also below the price at which EVN is expected to purchase electricity from upcoming, new (renewable and thermal) generation. Furthermore, greater reliance on costlier commercial finance and less reliance on sovereign financing through the MOF in the future is likely to increase the costs of electricity production, which will require tariffs to increase to prevent EVN’s financial position from further deteriorating.

.............

(1) Now the numbers above make a lot of sense. The subsidy is about the level i calculated before on 16 Apr 2019: ~

= US$ 0.120 / kwh (full cost )- US$ 0.076 / kwh (EVN tariff)
= US$ 0.04 / kwh
=================

(2) If they EVN is forced to raise the tariff to US$ 0.14/kwh.....

that will make JAKS in a super comfortable position to reap the concession earnings.

..............

With the above, guess the puzzle i had is solved now as expressed and quoted on article below by DK66:


Jaks Resources - The Matrix Behind The Vietnam PPA
Author: DK66 | Publish date: Tue, 16 Apr 2019, 10:03 AM

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/202341.jsp


CONCLUSION:
-----------

SO FAR ALL THE NUMBERS ARE FALLING IN PLACE, CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER

ha ha DK66, thats exactly what i wanted to reply up_down earlier...


i thought of saying, DK66 never fell in love with JAKS, he was only trying to find out if there is anything on her which he can hate!

If you guys have done enough investigation to verify on the expected power plant contribution on earnings. Some even got it from the horse mouth....

should definitely ignore short term price movement (70% rise within a month definitely invites wild volatility)....who pushes up and down does not matter

as then this is truly a ticking JAK-POT bomb.

it is fundamentals that has the final say

true, the great thing about power plant is that it IMMEDIATELY starts delivering profits as soon as placed in operation.

and yes, risk of commissioning delays is also very minimal - its not that complicated (multi-variable dependent)

thanks DK66, OTB

key catalyst question is when is the power plant going to contribute economically?

for short term holders more than 6 months, current price may not be that attractive...

for long terms holders even 9 months could be very attractive.

..............

may be sifu DK66 can enlighten on the above...i am sure he would have done that earlier..but for newbies a refresher would be very helpful

TQ

problem with PPHB and the like BRIGHT packaging is that their margins indicate a spike due to one off events which are not sustainable unlike MASTER PACK

problem with PPHB and the like BRIGHT packaging is that their margins indicate a spike due to one off events which are not sustainable unlike MASTER PACK

what makes difference between a 'pasar malam talk' and 'theory'...nothing except RESULTS on prediction.

Both are 'stories' only...till you have empirical data to support.

Note that 'theory' which has empirical data to support in U.S market...can be a 'pasar malam talk' in Bursa...

we must accept that

I think that is the essence connie555 is trying to convey Ricky.
..............................................................

as a logical man you should be able to grasp the point he is putting across with his limited vocab

uncle panic and open mouth already on Dayang!

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/239723.jsp

u mean next qtr results collapse? No wonder..

investors are very smart nowadays....

scary...all want to trap uncle already...nobody want to buy


Posted by probability > Nov 22, 2019 5:33 PM | Report Abuse X

he wins only if you buy from him on Monday like how he bought from you before the results (being privy of results)....

uncle is great

MIDF and Public Bank TP so much different.. Lol!

tomorrow wont get this cheap

time to whack already....

management too optimistic

koon margin call on dayang

koon margin call on dayang

https://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl3909_t2a.png