BM news, means flood of foreign construction workers soon....thats indeed a mind-boggling sized project

and his tail 'cute Jon'

well said Philip - i sincerely hope Ricky considers your advice

https://www.meti.go.jp/meti_lib/report/H29FY/000594.pdf

chapter 9 - Financial, Economic Analysis, and Prospect of Project Funding

will provide very good information on IRR sensitivity to utilization rate, selling price and fuel costs

Table 9-7: EIRR sensitivity analysis results by power selling price

Table 9-9: EIRR sensitivity analysis results by fuel price

Table 9-10: EIRR sensitivity analysis results by operation hours

......................

Fuel price dropped by just 10%, can increase the IRR from 10% to whopping 20%! Appears to me the current fuel price had actually dropped by 50% from their original estimate.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price

However, for the BOT contract, what matters most is the Table 9-10

These are perfectly inline with DK66 basis of IRR of 12% at about 6500 hrs/yr. The chart says 12.6% at 6600 hrs.

"my salute to DK66 on his meticulous derivations"

https://www.meti.go.jp/meti_lib/report/H29FY/000594.pdf

chapter 9 - Financial, Economic Analysis, and Prospect of Project Funding

will provide very good information on IRR sensitivity to utilization rate, selling price and fuel costs

Table 9-7: EIRR sensitivity analysis results by power selling price

Table 9-9: EIRR sensitivity analysis results by fuel price

Table 9-10: EIRR sensitivity analysis results by operation hours

......................

Fuel price dropped by just 10%, can increase the IRR from 10% to whopping 20%! Appears to me the current fuel price had actually dropped by 50% from their original estimate.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price

However, for the BOT contract, what matters most is the Table 9-10

These are perfectly inline with DK66 basis of IRR of 12% at about 6500 hrs/yr. The chart says 12.6% at 6600 hrs.

"my salute to DK66 on his meticulous derivations"

The license was given to JAKS, they wont be a sohai like stockxxxxxx to get nothing from the Chinese (China Power)

JULY 8, 2011
............

https://www.reuters.com/article/vietnam-energy-jaks/malaysias-jaks-resources-to-build-2-25-bln-power-plant-in-vietnam-idUSL3E7I803820110708

HANOI, July 8 (Reuters) - Malaysia’s Jaks Resources Berhad has secured an investment licence to build a $2.25 billion coal-fired power plant in northern Vietnam, a state-run newspaper reported on Frid


JULY 13, 2015
............

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/07/13/jaks-project-back-on-track

PETALING JAYA: After several false starts, JAKS Resources Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png

’s 1,200MW power plant project in Vietnam is back on track with a bigger joint-venture partner, China Power Engineering Consulting Group.

“We are confident that this partnership will work out. China Power is strong financially. They own power plants in China and have more than 300 power projects worldwide.

“They have US$2.5bil in the bank with another US$3.5bil banking facilities. In addition, their parent company is a Fortune 500 company with assets size of some 200 billion yuan,” JAKS corporate strategy general manager Steven Ang told StarBiz.

Ang added that China Power had obtained all the relevant approvals from its government for overseas investments.

JAKS’ previous proposed joint venture had lapsed and it lost potential partners for the project a couple of times. The potential partners included China-based energy firms Wuhan Kaidi Electric Power Engineering Co and Meiya Power Ltd.

“When we entered into a partnership with Meiya Power, they were a Hong Kong company and subsequently acquired by a Chinese company. Following the acquisition, the company had a different direction and that’s why the deal did not go through.

“Wuhan Kaidi did not have the financial strength to take on the project,” Ang said when explaining the reasons for the fallout with its previous potential partners.

Last week, JAKS announced that it had signed several agreements to set up a joint venture with China Power to develop a RM7.05bil (US$1.87bil) thermal power plant in Hai Duong province, Vietnam.

The power plant, which was granted licence in 2011, is JAKS’ first foray into the Vietnamese power generation industry.

take OTB as a catalyst icon...dk66 is the diamond

Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 10, 2019 12:00 PM | Report Abuse

OTB asked me to follow his TA calls to re enter Jaks after I sold at 140

Little did he know that his presence in jaks is exactly the reason I avoid the counter

its no longer a projection , outcome which is even better than the projection had unfolded

....will reveal itself soon

DK66, thats the reason i mention that as the first point. Most people do not understand the meaning of IRR and especially for a duration of 25 years.

They miss out the duration factor and could not fathom the implications.



Posted by probability > Dec 9, 2019 11:00 PM | Report Abuse X

To appreciate JAKS, one need to do the following basic homework:
.............................................................

1) Understand what an IRR of say 10% means for 25 years with capital invested at 30 - 40% stakes of the equity ownership of the 1200 MW Power plant valued at US 1.87 Billion. Alternatively the meaning of a payback period of 8 years considering the depreciation of the plant over 25 years.

2) What Earnings does the above translate to JAKS for 25 years.

3) If the earnings is too impressive, question the economics of Vietnam government to provide such an attractive offer for BOT contract? How is it economically viable and why they do so?

4) Finally, figure out how in the first place did JAKS managed to obtain such a fantastic lucrative deal?

once you obtain the above answers, you may slowly start to appreciate JAKS. Then you can start verifying with other similar BOT contract power plant performance and earnings.

almost all the answers are available on DK66 articles below:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/blidx.jsp

the more you research and understand, the more you will be able to appreciate the sanctity of all the above.

To appreciate JAKS, one need to do the following basic homework:
.............................................................

1) Understand what an IRR of say 10% means for 25 years with capital invested at 30 - 40% stakes of the equity ownership of the 1200 MW Power plant valued at US 1.87 Billion. Alternatively the meaning of a payback period of 8 years considering the depreciation of the plant over 25 years.

2) What Earnings does the above translate to JAKS for 25 years.

3) If the earnings is too impressive, question the economics of Vietnam government to provide such an attractive offer for BOT contract? How is it economically viable and why they do so?

4) Finally, figure out how in the first place did JAKS managed to obtain such a fantastic lucrative deal?

once you obtain the above answers, you may slowly start to appreciate JAKS. Then you can start verifying with other similar BOT contract power plant performance and earnings.

almost all the answers are available on DK66 articles below:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/blidx.jsp

the more you research and understand, the more you will be able to appreciate the sanctity of all the above.

Posted by DK66 > Dec 9, 2019 7:08 PM | Report Abuse

Nagachan, Thanks for sharing your knowledge. May I ask how do you know the IRR for Jaks is around 15%? Is your project also in Vietnam ?
------------------------
nagachan I am involved in a similar power project of the same size like Jaks (also under construction now). Basically all PPAs in Vietnam have to have the following to be bankable. BOT contract, fuel cost (coal price) passed thru. No IPPs will take fuel risk even in Malaysia. USD fluctuations not a concern as the tariff is index to USD even though is paid in Dong. The last thing is Dong convertibility which is guaranteed by MOF of Vietnam. In essence Jaks is a profitable IPP with project IRR around 15%. The only thing to worry like in any other business is Management credibility.

Posted by nagachan > Dec 9, 2019 8:47 PM | Report Abuse

DK66 my answer to you is Yes

sslee, DK66 was only demonstrating the impact of change in annual utilization hours on earnings. Its for comparison , not for absolute profit derivation.

That is for the local IPP not for foreign BOT.

If you really want to know the money they make now, you should see the below chart:


https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price

That's almost 50% Coal cost reduction compared the 6% due to auxiliary consumption you were stressing.

please put some effort to go through DK66 articles

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/blidx.jsp

make decision based on your own judgement

seek clarification on what you dont understand

do not buy based on what others say or the TP they give


Posted by Mrinvest0r > Dec 9, 2019 8:05 PM | Report Abuse

Can i still enter at this price ? What is OTB & DK66 long term tp ?

stockraider, i suggest you buy JAKS - its really another HENGYUAN in the making...but the price will never retrace - as its 25 years recurring income unlike crack spread

you know me - i never say things which are not true (at least from all the available information i have)

just with 20M investment now, he will recover his lost 64M

all he needs is some patience, 25 years of recurring income cannot be suppressed

i can access from your above link - no issues

I no longer have any doubt on JAKS.

The most important person who should read this is Mr.Koon. He cant go wrong by investing here. In fact he should sell Dayang and buy back JAKS.

you didnt get the point...i treasure amygdala's response to worries too...anxiety...serotonin loss..etc

its a tool

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Dec 6, 2019 12:50 PM | Report Abuse

That's why we are a different species. If you treasure those hormones, because your life is lack of excitement, great for you. = )

if the correlation data shows a minor advantage of the readers...does it matter?

as there is a lot of time invested for readings and researching..it does not come for free

anyway Ricky...there is nothing right and wrong strategy..all your fundamental valuations are highly appreciated...in fact its highly needed in i3...

but its often felt you overlook on the obvious - more influential information (which matters more) - i think thats what everyone is trying to stress

and i really dont like quotes from successful people's trait - thats pure bullshit

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Dec 6, 2019 12:47 PM | Report Abuse

You have my permission to try probability. You're spot on on cocaine brain. That's why the market is full of patsy.

I think you got it wrong on the other point. Sure there are probably many investors that love reading books but are losers in the stock market. But the habit of reading is unlikely to be the causal factor of their losses.

Which one has higher correlation: reading lead to success versus reading lead to losses in market? Your name is probability, you should know this. Maybe you don't.

just like i treasure the emerging information...and form a concept (fundamental) of its probable implications on the company's valuation

Posted by probability > Dec 6, 2019 12:43 PM | Report Abuse X

no amount of reading can equip me to sense the emotions market have with every revelations of new information to the market...if i myself do not have these emotions..testosterone..adrenaline rush...and dopamine outburst...

..

i shall treasure these hormones like my gods

no amount of reading can equip me to sense the emotions market have with every revelations of new information to the market...if i myself do not have these emotions..testosterone..adrenaline rush...and dopamine outburst...

..

i shall treasure these hormones like my gods

Cocaine brain? love it..

im trying to get hooked for a while so that i can understand it better

a brain that understands a cocaine brain may very well be the ultimate investor....(especially for capital below 10 million)

getting hooked on cocaine and getting hooked on books is no different

there are millions of investors who are as hooked into reading like Li-kashing , Munger and Buffet ....who are losers in stock market....as much a the cocaine brains who lost.

stop quoting this successful guys' traits as a causal factor


conclusion:
..........

bookworm and cocaine brain...lets not discriminate between these two in a bias manner

.

on point no.3, it wouldn't take long for them to make new lines provided demand is there...

on demand ..i think its all about capturing new market share..and they have the competitive advantage to do that

however, having such knowledge is definitely an advantage provided one knows when to use and not...

but that skills requires another 1000 page book to read - or just a good 'intuition'

Just look at their phenomenal revenue growth year after year...

Posted by WhiteWolf > Dec 5, 2019 8:10 AM | Report Abuse

Sharing about Master. Their Quadwall patent details below. These fellas are really serious about building cardboard boxes lo

https://patents.google.com/patent/US8652613B2/en
https://patentimages.storage.googleapis.com/83/32/9e/e2ba603db91329/US...

Seems like their patent extends until 2031. Hope this plays out financially for Master

i also love Ricky Yeo.....

this shows humanity is doomed with all the knowledge and intelligence...

its like pets who are constantly provided with food ...until they continuously eat to their death due to obesity.....same thing can happen with knowledge...

the problem occurs when taste of food overtakes the need of energy....thirst of knowledge overtakes need of practical application..

.................

if M (making money) = function of (x, y, z,....etc)...and

y = function (p. q, r, s etc...)

each variable on the right side having an impact to y....and subsequently on M....

the program (the brain) overly spends energy on factoring and evaluating p, q, r, s.....till it neglects the sensitive-significant core factors x, y, z ...into its consideration...and also the factors itself change with time...its such a dynamic equation that..

to learn swimming...one need not calculate buoyancy law..bernoulli's principle , and stokes law ...they just need to jump into the pool and start kicking...

..................

i.e, ineffective & inefficient utilization of the limited brain power for the objective in hand..

Just to demystify on the complexity of the coal fired power plant so that one can have a feel based on their own perception on how long it takes for the commissioning.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal-fired_power_station#/media/File:PowerStation3.svg

anyone having direct experience on the commissioning - please share their opinion.

what was the Private Placement price he bought?

Surely they will be paying their workers overtime like crazy (to work day and night) for an expedited commissioning.

when all the incentives are there, why wouldn't they place in commercial operation much ahead of schedule?

Posted by probability > Dec 4, 2019 1:16 AM | Report Abuse X

EVN is also desperate for electricity for the consumers and also due to such Cheap Coal presently.

JAKS-CEEC would also want to bring it on - as they will be paid based on Capacity Charge too (based on power capacity made available) independent to consumption.

In my opinion, market have still not digested (cant even smell it..nose block perhaps!)....the meaning of the below event.

Its indeed very well possible to place the unit in commercial operation in 2 months.

Commissioning should not take more than 2 months after Site Readiness.

That is like 4 months ahead of schedule.



Posted by VIN3133 > Dec 4, 2019 1:02 AM | Report Abuse

English translation ( google translate) :
Power generation for Unit 2 of Vietnam ’s Hai Duong Coal-Fired Power Plant Project was successful

On December 3, local time, the company's construction of the 2 × 600,000-kilowatt coal-fired power plant project in Hai Duong , Vietnam, power generation for Unit 2 of Vietnam ’s Hai Duong Coal-Fired Power Plant Project was successfully completed.

The Hai Duong Project Department of Vietnam has formulated a thorough plan, organized relevant inspections before receiving electricity for power use in the plant, rectified the closed-loop problems one by one, and all measurement results met the requirements and had the power receiving conditions. With the electrification of the 11kV switch room and the normal operation of all equipment, the power plant of Unit 2 successfully received electricity once and officially entered the commissioning stage.

---------------------------------------------------------
Posted by Ricky Kiat > Dec 4, 2019 12:33 AM | Report Abuse

http://www.apcc2.ceec.net.cn/art/2019/12/3/art_8427_2029661.html
越南海阳燃煤电厂工程二号机组厂用电受电一次成功

Damn, they are really proceeding fast.

EVN is also desperate for electricity for the consumers and also due to such Cheap Coal presently.

JAKS-CEEC would also want to bring it on - as they will be paid based on Capacity Charge too (based on power capacity made available) independent to consumption.

i think you guys should just relocate to Master...such high margin of PPHB (20%) is not sustainable for long...unlike Master's which was contributed by higher Sales arising from foreign subsidiary...

so Ekovest gets nothing then? Looks like Botak shaved off all hairs from our head...

crazy movement...is it because of zahid ongoing case? totally unexpected drop

Jonathan choi buying...

That's bloody fantastic news actually.

http://www.jaks.com.my/ang-lam-poah.php

Ang Lam Poah is the brother to the Director, Ang Lam Aik. Save as disclosed, he does not have any family relationship with any other Director and/or major shareholder of the Company and has no conflict of interest with the Company. He has no convictions for offence within the past five years.

Sarifah, CEO Andy Ang Lam Poah and CFO Ang Si Eeng bukan saudara ke?

powerful article - makes me feel emotional

History of Chin Peng - Koon Yew Yin
Author: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Mon, 2 Dec 2019

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/242849.jsp

im from sitiawan too, my primary school headmaster was chin peng's brother

Ok thanks

yes the Operational costs is in VND, ok thanks.

DK66, would strengthening USD against VND benefit Jaks from the power plant BOT contract? or no difference?

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=VND&view=5Y

i guess volatility in exchange rate also falls on cost pass-through mechanism?

TP = (CC x AC) + (EC x EO) + SC

where, Suppl. Charge (SC) =

- Exchange Difference
- Compensation
- Other services

https://koonyewyin.com/2018/03/16/jaks-why-the-share-price-is-falling/

Extract from uncle' article above - quoted below:
................................

The CEO Andy Ang:

I must say Andy Ang is an exceptionally clever and shroud business man to be able to secure the 1,200 MW power plant contract from the Vietnamese Government and completely sub-contract to the Chinese party who has the technical ability and financial capacity to complete the power plant, which is valued at about Rm 7.76 billion.

The most important consideration is that Jaks does not need to borrow money from banks to finance the project and does not need to lay a brick to construct the huge power plant. In fact, the Chinese Sub-contractor and JV partner pays Jaks Rm 454 million during the 3 years of construction. Now I understand Jaks has already received about one third of the Rm 454 million.

In my 60 years’ experience in the construction contracting industry, I have never seen such a juicy contract as Jaks’ power plant contract. As an independent power producer selling electricity to the Vietnamese Government at a profitable rate for 25 years.

Its a pity Tenaga never took the opportunity back in 2015:

JAKS wooing Tenaga for Vietnam power plant, May 13, 2015

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/jaks-wooing-tenaga-vietnam-power-plant

Sources say the project’s IRR is at least 15% because the power purchase agreement is on a take-or-pay basis, which requires Vietnam Electricity to pay for the power generated whether or not there is demand for it.

The agreement also has cost-pass-through mechanisms, including any volatility in fuel costs and exchange rates. JPHD will be paid in US dollars, which will increase JAKS’ exposure to foreign exchange volatility as it will have to convert the money into dong to pay its operational costs.

Excellent article for reads below...

It gives a clear idea to derive the earnings and why Jaks managed to obtain such a fantastic deal in the first place.

...............


(1) Jaks Resources - Comparison with MFCB Hydro Plant

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/226512.jsp


(2) Jaks Resources - An excellent joint venture deal with CPECC

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/226058.jsp

eh..jangan promote status i...biar captain DK66 yang buat apa2 kesimpulan...i cuma validator...badan pengesahan fakta

ala...icon cuma guna nama saya sebagai alasan utk jual...kan harga jaks naik mendadak terlalu cepat....

i mana sifu...siput la....cuma boleh kaji benda2 yang tentang engineering...

Uncle Koon yang tahu menahu paling mendalam juga tak menafikan kenyataan power plant dalam artikel untuk kutuk Jaks ini :

JAKS: What investors must verify - Koon Yew Yin

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/229240.jsp


aku langsung tak percaya tuduhan dia yang power plant akan mengambil masa seperti dia katakan tu..

Insentif untuk Koon kutuk dengan bohongan terserlah kerana dia jual dengan kerugian dulu..