probability

Probability | Joined since 2014-03-18

Investing Experience Not Disclosed
Risk Profile Moderate

Probability is a measure of 'likeliness' that an event will occur - there are no 100% certainty.

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Stock

2020-01-14 20:00 | Report Abuse

http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/indonesia-population/cities/

City name / 2020 Population
...........................

Jakarta 8,540,121
Surabaya 2,374,658
Medan 1,750,971
Bandung 1,699,719
Bekasi 1,520,119
Palembang 1,441,500
Tangerang 1,372,124
Makassar 1,321,717
Tangerang 1,303,569
Semarang 1,288,084
Depok 1,198,129
Batam 1,164,352
Padang 840,352
Denpasar 834,881
Lampung 800,348
Bogor 800,000
Malang 746,716
Pekanbaru 703,950
Balikpapan 700,000
Yogyakarta 636,660
Situbondo 600,000
Banjarmasin 572,837
Surakarta 555,308
Cimahi 493,698
Pontianak 455,173
Manado 451,893
Balikpapan 433,866
Jambi City 420,323
Ambon 355,596
Samarinda 355,160

TOTAL population of above 30 cities:

36 Million
...........

Stock

2020-01-14 13:34 | Report Abuse

Fantastic! even unit 2 had been installed.

Thanks for the update Ricky Kiat

Stock

2020-01-10 20:19 | Report Abuse

try advertising with full details...may be some others are interested.. me no..even 500 ringgit...no interest:(

Stock

2020-01-10 20:05 | Report Abuse

im lazy alex on survey....please excuse me...TQ

Stock

2020-01-10 20:03 | Report Abuse

not worth it to gamble on the volatility of crackspread for refinery....

go for power plant with recurring cash flow for ages.....25 years

Stock

2020-01-10 20:01 | Report Abuse

stay away from refinery...

Stock

2020-01-10 19:52 | Report Abuse

Yes sifu, how are u doing?

News & Blogs

2020-01-04 11:37 | Report Abuse

when it comes to Koon - especially

News & Blogs

2020-01-04 11:34 | Report Abuse

if Koon can listen to Desa...would it be that hard for him to listen to OTB? If not now (giving the benefit of doubt)....how about when the power gets into the grid?

we always need to see through...beneath what is apparent in i3

Stock

2020-01-04 10:22 | Report Abuse

Pjseow, maths of chemical engineering still not as advanced as electrical engineering maths. I have learnt the fundamentals and practical side of electricity, induction motors and the controls system during working life.

Thank god at least stock market maths is not so complicated..its the business sense like yours which is truly priceless knowledge.

News & Blogs

2020-01-04 09:43 | Report Abuse

Ya...its head or tail guessing game like casino here...
And you make money without any prior guessing from your mind..

Serah kpd takdir allah aje lah...

News & Blogs

2020-01-04 08:53 | Report Abuse

knowing that the date for placing power to the grid is very very close

its absolutely zero risk now in terms of construction completion (not talking about management which is highly subjective) and that there is a minimum guaranteed profit which easily justifies a price above RM 2

News & Blogs

2020-01-04 08:45 | Report Abuse

i am still positive that Koon is flexible and nimble...zero ego...when it comes to stocks...

as such its still very possible that he will buy back JAKS
..........................................................

we just need to enlighten him more on Mong Duong 2 where as per sslee the FCF QTD (3 qtrs) 2019 is about RM 414 Million annualized. This translates to RM 244 Million for JAKS at 30% stakes of the identical power plant it has.

the above is at very low utilization rate, at utilization rate of vinh tan 1 level it would be way much higher

Stock

2020-01-03 21:03 | Report Abuse

Glad you know this human

Posted by human > Jan 3, 2020 8:59 PM | Report Abuse

ya, power plant is simple. processing plant more things to check.

Stock

2020-01-03 20:54 | Report Abuse

No, i am not. Im a chemical engineer and have done commissioning of much more complicated plants. Thermodynamics and electromagnetic principles are quite easy for me to grasp. As i have both process and electrical & automation knowledge

Stock

2020-01-03 20:37 | Report Abuse

by the way, they just updated with more images of the plant on google map (4 hours ago)...keep checking there.

They may also share video of the steam blow test in few days.

Stock

2020-01-03 20:34 | Report Abuse

For the investors who understand why they are investing here, go through the 2 minutes video below to have better understanding and form on your own opinion how fast they will be able to generate power knowing they will be doing steam blow test on 4th Jan.

2 MINUTES VIDEO for you to crack your head:
...................

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh5_7sHyLU4


The power plant consist of:

1) Coal handling section

2) Boiler

3) Turbine

4) Generator

auxiliaries are just circulating water as cooling system on the generator

steam blow test means they are already burning the coal to produce steam and merely bypassing the turbine.

this means section 1 and 2 will be completed by 4th Jan (tomorrow)

Stock

2020-01-03 11:27 | Report Abuse

thanks edkfc, you are the kind of investors we want here at Jaks

to look at it as a business...to me this is what we really mean by 'business sense'.

Stock

2020-01-03 08:31 | Report Abuse

If you see the google map location under photos - latest, where there are two objects under the massive yellow beams ( 2 way hoist presumably), it appears to me they are the turbines.

There are 2 identical units there.

This means (as expected) both the unit 1 and unit 2 x 600 MW turbines are complete and that its just the commissioning done in stages for unit 1 and unit 2.

I see no reason for plant construction (civil, mechanical and electrical) to be done separately.

Further, placement of power to the grid has to be done in stages.
The reason for staggered commissioning appears more due to the need for gradual rise in power consumption at the grid.

Stock

2020-01-02 21:53 | Report Abuse

well, they did say the below in 2018:

https://www.vir.com.vn/vietnam-power-plant-will-drive-jaks-profit-growth-61256.html

“We believe that management will complete the project on time, as it will play a significant role in bolstering Jaks Resources’ chances of securing new power-related projects in Vietnam,”


Posted by elbrutus > Jan 2, 2020 9:49 PM | Report Abuse

CPECC reputation at stake ...how not to complete on time ??? i am pretty sure they are looking forward to more POWER PLANT PROJECTS from d VIET GOVERNMENT...so die die also must habis leh...muka cannot jatuk juga !!!

Stock

2020-01-02 21:45 | Report Abuse

The video is taken on Jan 2020.

From the images, i can firmly say the plant is complete in terms of civil, mechanical (based on claddings) and electrical (based on conduits placed for the cables).

There is absolutely no further material that is needed to be placed in the plant.

........

Its now purely bringing the electricity to operate the automation from DCS-SCADA and start the system, i.e commissioning.

Commissioning means operate and ensure all equipment and components are functioning as intended.

Steam blow test on 4th Jan means - half of the plant is tested.

Stock

2020-01-02 21:20 | Report Abuse

claddings had been made means the lines had been all pressure tested

Stock

2020-01-02 21:18 | Report Abuse

click on the 'latest' section.

News & Blogs

2020-01-02 15:47 | Report Abuse

Fantastic news! Thank god.

Stock

2020-01-02 13:18 | Report Abuse

they blow till they no longer get any particle coming out of the lines....

this is to ensure when they put through the steam via turbine (later), there are no longer particles at high velocity on the line to cause damage on the turbines...

Stock

2020-01-02 13:14 | Report Abuse

The more you know the more you appreciate:

https://www.fourquest.com/services/steam-blowing/

STEAM BLOWING
............

Effective in the removal of construction debris, weld slag, sand, oil, dust, rust and mill scale from critical systems prior to plant start-up.

We optimize our steam blows with quality engineering, and by utilizing the best equipment. Determining pipe sizing and design, pipe routing, steam conditions, noise level, thermal cycling, water quenching, and condensate generation are all factors that—with our proper planning—will ensure a successful steam blow operation.


WHY PERFORM STEAM BLOWING?
..........................

When pipe is fabricated during hot working, a heavy oxide layer forms. This layer is known as mill scale and must be removed from critical systems before putting them into service.

Over time, enhancements have been made in plant start-up techniques to perform engineered steam blows that remove mill scale. During a steam blow, the piping is blown with sufficient boiler pressure to ensure that enough dynamic pressure will be experienced in the pipe to provide adequate cleaning.

During any plant start up, there’s a possibility that particles left in the pipe from the construction phase could break loose and travel downstream. These particles can damage instrumentation and impede other plant operations. Typically, boiler pressures used in steam blowing provide a dynamic pressure throughout the piping that is at least 20% higher than would be experienced in normal operating conditions (CFR ≥ 1.2). Any potentially damaging particles will be blown out of the piping prior to plant operation.

The time taken for an object to travel through the system and be ejected cannot be calculated. Instead, a technique of detecting particles in the emerging steam blow is used. This technique checks the emerging steam for particles impacting on a polished metal plate (commonly known as a target).

Stock

2020-01-02 12:15 | Report Abuse

ask sslee sifu or philip greta sifu from his biomass boiler to power generation commissioning stages...

the principles of the power plant commissioning would not be much different

Stock

2020-01-02 12:09 | Report Abuse

steam blow test is not like a test to pass...its just clearing the lines...

they would have done pressure testing much ahead to ensure there is no leakage on the lines

.......

i would say its more of a first segment of the plant commissioning :

stage 1: coal energy to steam energy

2nd stage would be: steam energy to power (electricity)

rest would be teething problems before placing the power to the grid

Stock

2020-01-02 10:49 | Report Abuse

ok 'smart' ks55...check your postings...its you who used the 'derogatory' word first...learn to use respectful words on others first...

Stock

2020-01-02 10:40 | Report Abuse

fair to declare one as an idiot when one constantly try to demote (independent to how sensible are their arguments)...instead of promoting any stocks (9 demote vs 0 promote) due to sheer jealousy instead of rational thoughts...

Stock

2020-01-02 10:27 | Report Abuse

sslee once attacked koon kow kow...after that he realize he better not make any enemies...

what lectures he give here in i3..on philosophy...and karma bullshits...

his objective is only one thing...make $$...LOL!

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 2, 2020 10:15 AM | Report Abuse

I hope righteous sslee has the gumption to speak up against these misrepresentations, lies and deceptions

what are you waiting for sslee ?

Stock

2020-01-02 09:03 | Report Abuse

They are just 2 months away from power generation (not to the grid)...and 4 months away to the grid (commercial operation) for unit 1.

as earlier they targeted 3rd March (as per above news on 5th Sept).

..................................

Considering the steam blow test date... i would say an improvement of about at least 2 weeks now..

News & Blogs

2020-01-02 09:01 | Report Abuse

They are just 2 months away from power generation (not to the grid)...and 4 months away to the grid (commercial operation) for unit 1.

as earlier they targeted 3rd March (as per above news on 5th Sept).

..................................

Considering the steam blow test date... i would say an improvement of about at least 2 weeks now..

Stock

2020-01-01 21:33 | Report Abuse

For those who are still unaware on the official news earlier in Sept 5, 2019:

https://baohaiduong.vn/chinh-tri/dong-chi-nguyen-manh-hien-lam-viec-voi-chu-dau-tu-du-an-nha-may-nhiet-dien-bot-hai-duong-115554

extract from above translated to english:

At the meeting, the business representative briefed the provincial leaders about the progress of the project. BOT Hai Duong Thermal Power Plant has 2 units, capacity of 600MW. As planned, by March 3.2020, the No. 1 generator began to generate electricity. By May 6.2020, the plant will be completed commissioning, officially generating electricity into the national grid.

.......

since then there has been considerable progress and updates on unit 1 where the steam blow test is now scheduled on 4th Jan

News & Blogs

2020-01-01 21:30 | Report Abuse

For those who are still unaware on the official news earlier in Sept 5, 2019:

https://baohaiduong.vn/chinh-tri/dong-chi-nguyen-manh-hien-lam-viec-voi-chu-dau-tu-du-an-nha-may-nhiet-dien-bot-hai-duong-115554

extract from above translated to english:

At the meeting, the business representative briefed the provincial leaders about the progress of the project. BOT Hai Duong Thermal Power Plant has 2 units, capacity of 600MW. As planned, by March 3.2020, the No. 1 generator began to generate electricity. By May 6.2020, the plant will be completed commissioning, officially generating electricity into the national grid.

.......

since then there has been considerable progress on unit 1 where the steam blow test is now scheduled on 4th Jan

Stock

2020-01-01 09:55 | Report Abuse

Philip Greta is truly a genius in identifying the positive attributes of a business...perfectly sensible, knowledgeable..and he is truly gifted in his ability to compare one business vs another.

But..he always misses on the valuation part (just like in QL)...the other side of the equation...i.e, how he weighs all these positive attributes and justifies the price....its like he only looks at one side of the balance weighing scale and completely discards the other.

Is the current price justified against the potential earnings?
Do you need to see the explosive earnings first before buying?

should the current interest in Jaks only justified at a price of 80 cents? or is it considered undervalued even at RM 3? How did you came to such conclusion?

lets not blindly discard the other side of the equation...the valuation part.


the balance weighing scale has two sides
.........................................


For a clearly proven potential earnings of an exactly identical power plant and with a simple mechanism to explain its earnings in hand...

its such a waste to keep a blind eye and wait for Hai Duong to show the results....when commercial operation is just 5 months away.

News & Blogs

2020-01-01 09:05 | Report Abuse

Next, i hope they will announce in local media after the successful scheduled steam blow test on 4th Jan

This is a major milestone, its as good as ready for generating power

News & Blogs

2020-01-01 08:50 | Report Abuse

The fact that Koon compared to Mudajaya in India 1000s miles away, instead of Hai Duong close neighbours in the same country such as Mong Duong 2 and Vin Tanh1...clearly shows an ulterior motive.

It shows we are all a child deep inside..controlled by jealousy, pride n arrogance etc..

Stock

2019-12-31 15:33 | Report Abuse

Dk66, u dont know about ks55...he is a world class educated idiot..a person with a reputation like u should not even respond/ entertain him

News & Blogs

2019-12-31 11:10 | Report Abuse

I salute paperplane...with his 1.5 in" penis length after 4 yrs..he feels he has a horse' penis..positive thinking...lol!

Stock

2019-12-31 09:33 | Report Abuse

obviously ALP knows...not sure about Merican...he is more concern on adding more wives than shares.

Stock

2019-12-31 09:24 | Report Abuse

we are not in counting business....thats for accountant.

entrepreneurs, businessman sees what no accountants can see

i suggest accountants take a back seat and just count the days as it ticks...

News & Blogs

2019-12-31 08:49 | Report Abuse

Posted by pjseow > Dec 28, 2019 11:35 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Mr Tan KW, my picks are as follows
1.MFCB 30%
2.JAKS 30%
3.MKH 15%
4.Dayang 15%
4.Dpharma 10%

I will resubmit on 31st DEC after 4.30pm

News & Blogs
News & Blogs

2019-12-31 08:46 | Report Abuse

Position/participant/2019 return / 2018 return/ 2017 return/ 2016 return / (Total return 4 years)

62/paperplane/20.79%/-59.20%/8.02%/31.89%/(1.50%)