steam blow test is not like a test to pass...its just clearing the lines...

they would have done pressure testing much ahead to ensure there is no leakage on the lines

.......

i would say its more of a first segment of the plant commissioning :

stage 1: coal energy to steam energy

2nd stage would be: steam energy to power (electricity)

rest would be teething problems before placing the power to the grid

ok 'smart' ks55...check your postings...its you who used the 'derogatory' word first...learn to use respectful words on others first...

fair to declare one as an idiot when one constantly try to demote (independent to how sensible are their arguments)...instead of promoting any stocks (9 demote vs 0 promote) due to sheer jealousy instead of rational thoughts...

sslee once attacked koon kow kow...after that he realize he better not make any enemies...

what lectures he give here in i3..on philosophy...and karma bullshits...

his objective is only one thing...make $$...LOL!

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 2, 2020 10:15 AM | Report Abuse

I hope righteous sslee has the gumption to speak up against these misrepresentations, lies and deceptions

what are you waiting for sslee ?

They are just 2 months away from power generation (not to the grid)...and 4 months away to the grid (commercial operation) for unit 1.

as earlier they targeted 3rd March (as per above news on 5th Sept).

..................................

Considering the steam blow test date... i would say an improvement of about at least 2 weeks now..

They are just 2 months away from power generation (not to the grid)...and 4 months away to the grid (commercial operation) for unit 1.

as earlier they targeted 3rd March (as per above news on 5th Sept).

..................................

Considering the steam blow test date... i would say an improvement of about at least 2 weeks now..

For those who are still unaware on the official news earlier in Sept 5, 2019:

https://baohaiduong.vn/chinh-tri/dong-chi-nguyen-manh-hien-lam-viec-voi-chu-dau-tu-du-an-nha-may-nhiet-dien-bot-hai-duong-115554

extract from above translated to english:

At the meeting, the business representative briefed the provincial leaders about the progress of the project. BOT Hai Duong Thermal Power Plant has 2 units, capacity of 600MW. As planned, by March 3.2020, the No. 1 generator began to generate electricity. By May 6.2020, the plant will be completed commissioning, officially generating electricity into the national grid.

.......

since then there has been considerable progress and updates on unit 1 where the steam blow test is now scheduled on 4th Jan

For those who are still unaware on the official news earlier in Sept 5, 2019:

https://baohaiduong.vn/chinh-tri/dong-chi-nguyen-manh-hien-lam-viec-voi-chu-dau-tu-du-an-nha-may-nhiet-dien-bot-hai-duong-115554

extract from above translated to english:

At the meeting, the business representative briefed the provincial leaders about the progress of the project. BOT Hai Duong Thermal Power Plant has 2 units, capacity of 600MW. As planned, by March 3.2020, the No. 1 generator began to generate electricity. By May 6.2020, the plant will be completed commissioning, officially generating electricity into the national grid.

.......

since then there has been considerable progress on unit 1 where the steam blow test is now scheduled on 4th Jan

Philip Greta is truly a genius in identifying the positive attributes of a business...perfectly sensible, knowledgeable..and he is truly gifted in his ability to compare one business vs another.

But..he always misses on the valuation part (just like in QL)...the other side of the equation...i.e, how he weighs all these positive attributes and justifies the price....its like he only looks at one side of the balance weighing scale and completely discards the other.

Is the current price justified against the potential earnings?
Do you need to see the explosive earnings first before buying?

should the current interest in Jaks only justified at a price of 80 cents? or is it considered undervalued even at RM 3? How did you came to such conclusion?

lets not blindly discard the other side of the equation...the valuation part.


the balance weighing scale has two sides
.........................................


For a clearly proven potential earnings of an exactly identical power plant and with a simple mechanism to explain its earnings in hand...

its such a waste to keep a blind eye and wait for Hai Duong to show the results....when commercial operation is just 5 months away.

Next, i hope they will announce in local media after the successful scheduled steam blow test on 4th Jan

This is a major milestone, its as good as ready for generating power

The fact that Koon compared to Mudajaya in India 1000s miles away, instead of Hai Duong close neighbours in the same country such as Mong Duong 2 and Vin Tanh1...clearly shows an ulterior motive.

It shows we are all a child deep inside..controlled by jealousy, pride n arrogance etc..

Dk66, u dont know about ks55...he is a world class educated idiot..a person with a reputation like u should not even respond/ entertain him

I salute paperplane...with his 1.5 in" penis length after 4 yrs..he feels he has a horse' penis..positive thinking...lol!

obviously ALP knows...not sure about Merican...he is more concern on adding more wives than shares.

we are not in counting business....thats for accountant.

entrepreneurs, businessman sees what no accountants can see

i suggest accountants take a back seat and just count the days as it ticks...

Posted by pjseow > Dec 28, 2019 11:35 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Mr Tan KW, my picks are as follows
1.MFCB 30%
2.JAKS 30%
3.MKH 15%
4.Dayang 15%
4.Dpharma 10%

I will resubmit on 31st DEC after 4.30pm

i suggest he learns from pjseow...cagr of 25% for the last 21 years

Position/participant/2019 return / 2018 return/ 2017 return/ 2016 return / (Total return 4 years)

62/paperplane/20.79%/-59.20%/8.02%/31.89%/(1.50%)

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Hedgefunds/2019-12-19-story-h1481233220-3_years_return_for_i3_competition.jsp

OMG...paperplane 1.5% return after 4 years? 62th position...LOL!

Ha ha..smart quote from up_down

I support people who dare to fail like u...

This time paperplane sure top spot

Myeg, your 2019 pick..despite so much buyback still not moving..strange..dunno still can invest or not

I never participate...still learning for last 4 yrs from all sifus

Me part time investor...full time office

2020 champion will be paperplane...i can feel it

Nope, we are still not as confident as CPECC who has more than 50% stakes on the power plant and painstakingly engineered, procured, constructed the last 4 years and now about to commission it.....

DK66,

cpo just rose by 40% in last 2 months and share price of plantation stocks rose almost by 80% within the same period as if the cpo price will sustain at this level for the next 10 yrs (DCF valuation).

Jaks has a power plant under BOT contract with recurring guaranteed cash flow for next 25 years...but market is still hesitant on its valuation...guess its purely due to 'not so smart' market.

Tips to be patient:

Do not think much about the share price movement, focus on the progress of the power plant...

Keep visualizing the plant generating electricity soon and yourself the owner

This year means 2020.

To all those who bought Jaks and holding it presently....

Note that the steam blow test is scheduled on 4th Jan. Its as good as ready for generating power. The next few months is purely procedural activities for commercial operation.

Letting it go now is the dumbest mistake one can ever make.

At the ultimate worst scenario, it should hit RM 2 at 50% utilization rate. It should touch this TP within this year.

No where u can find an investment with such high certainty.

Good luck and wish everything goes well as planned with Hai Duong power plant.

Walao...very sexy picks from John sifu!

Uncle Koon also can

Philip Greta too...

Goh kim hock, duit etc..

Not forgetting Ricky Yeo and Jon Choivo

I really look forward for all the active i3 sifus recommendation for 2020, whether they underperform or performed well last year..does not matter.

All their ideas will be highly appreciated..

Icon sifu, yistock, tankw, john lu, paperplane, moneykj, updown, intelligent investor, otb, kchongz

Look forward for new participant as per below:

Vip: dk66, pjseow, sslee

Other elusive sifus:

3iii, stockraider, qqq3..kukuman n etc

Exactly as i thought. Thanks DK66!

Thats indeed a very very significant milestone.

DK66, If i understand correctly, steam blowing means the boiler would be generating steam from the heat of the coal combustion and the steam produced is passed through its pathway from boiler steam outlet to the exhaust chimney - only bypassing the turbine to avoid generating power.

Is that your understanding too?

Posted by DK66 > Dec 25, 2019 9:35 PM | Report Abuse

Steam blowing is scheduled to be carried out on 4th Jan 2020

On Pchem, wouldnt touch unless oil price can firmly maintain above 70usd/brl. Other downstream contribution due to RAPID will still take time. Recent rise appears purely due to oil price rise

Merry christmas n Happy new year sslee n all!
Your sensible points are always appreciated to improve i3 quality

i am just trying to work back on the steady stream of earnings for 25 years based on the capital invested for a certain IRR.

for that i need to know when i can consider the full cost of the project is invested and the interval to its first stream of earnings.

as if i am not mistaken, the timing between the full investment and the first stream greatly skews the IRR calculation

DK66, for the project IRR calculation, what is time difference (years) between the full capital invested and the first year of the return from commercial operation.

In other words, what is the NPV they will use "just before" the first year commercial return, such that the 25 years return discount rate to make the NPV zero is the IRR?

forgive me if i had used incorrect phrases as i am from non-finance background

congrats pjseow, thats superb return - more importantly shows how a patient persistent man you are. These characteristics is a great asset.


Posted by pjseow > Dec 19, 2019 11:26 PM | Report Abuse

Tomorrow is Friday . Many are already on holiday mood. With another one week to go , 2019 will end . It is time to take stock of the achievement or failure for 2019.. As for me, 2019 is a good year for me in stock investment. My total return is 26 % ytd. My top 3 investment are Dsyang ,mfcb, mfcb warrant and Jaks.. I had also invested in property and hotel for the past 12 years with fairly good returns but to me stock investment is still the best. My last 21years stock investment give me an average return of 18 to 20 %. I started with RM 170k in 1998 when the KLSE crash to 250 pt. The 18 to 20% annual compounded return will double your investment every 4 years. There are altogether 5 Four years within 20years. The final accumulated number will.be rm 170 x 2 to the power of 5 which is 32. The total is 5.44 million.

damn..i should have added more today

tips: before material you need manpower....foreign labour

Posted by Jokers2020 > Dec 17, 2019 11:53 PM | Report Abuse

beside IWC i think it is time to pick some Steel & piling company stock.For sure this project need them.So my pick will be Pintaras & Masteel..Any suggestion pick

tips: before material you need manpower....foreign labour

Posted by Jokers2020 > Dec 17, 2019 11:53 PM | Report Abuse

beside IWC i think it is time to pick some Steel & piling company stock.For sure this project need them.So my pick will be Pintaras & Masteel..Any suggestion pick

17-Dec-2019 17-Dec-2019 Buyback 1,000,000 1.150 1.150
12-Dec-2019 12-Dec-2019 Buyback 1,000,000 1.090 1.090
10-Dec-2019 10-Dec-2019 Buyback 1,000,000 1.120 1.120
15-Nov-2019 15-Nov-2019 Buyback 1,000,000 1.160 1.160
12-Nov-2019 15-Nov-2019 Buyback 2,000,000 1.160 1.160
12-Nov-2019 12-Nov-2019 Buyback 1,000,000 1.160 1.160
30-Oct-2019 30-Oct-2019 Buyback 500,000 1.080 1.080
29-Oct-2019 30-Oct-2019 Buyback 1,000,000 1.080 1.170
29-Oct-2019 29-Oct-2019 Buyback 500,000 1.170 1.170
25-Oct-2019 25-Oct-2019 Buyback 500,000 1.190 1.190
23-Oct-2019 23-Oct-2019 Buyback 1,500,000 1.190 1.190
22-Oct-2019 25-Oct-2019 Buyback 3,000,000 1.190 1.240
22-Oct-2019 22-Oct-2019 Buyback 1,000,000 1.230 1.240

https://vietnam-business-law.info/blog/2019/10/31/tariff-calculation-for-a-coal-fired-ipp-power-project-in-vietnam

my reasoning says when power output reaches 60% of the rated output, the IRR is in the range of 10-12% (referring to the range given by EVN for National Market participant from the link above as investor would seek that as the minimum return)

when it exceeds that, i.e at higher utilization rate (>60%) the IRR becomes an explosive figure

this explain Mong Duong II's performance

2-3% efficiency difference in terms of fuel consumption for the same energy kwh output. Does not matter when its a fuel cost passed through system. However, the boiler would definitely be costlier (higher capital investment).

I believe Mond Duong 2 is a subcritical coal power plant and its delivering strong earnings.



Posted by wesleylwl > Dec 17, 2019 8:27 PM | Report Abuse

does it being a subcritical coal powerplant make it less efficient in producing electricity and hence lower earnings than the VinhTan 1 supercritical coal powerplant?

Merican has only 15M shares left now

in fact the first beneficiary of BM is myeg...before the construcion companies itself benefits..

for myeg its immediate..for construction companies its like after 3 years via progressive billing...