I think this is correct. derivative loss will offset corresponding high profit when forward contract realised or utilised...

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Posted by probability > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

exactly sslee, their hedging position is in gasoline where the margin is thin for protection

thats why they made huge money in Q2 with the gain in Diesel and Jet Fuel crack


Posted by probability > Aug 31, 2022 9:16 AM | Report Abuse X

The most likely commodity hedging that caused the unrealized derivative loss is the Gasoline.

Note that the crack spread of gasoline jumped from 10 USD/brl to 32 USD/brl from Q4 21 by end of Q2 22

Say they hedged 10 million barrels 'gasoline - brent' crack by end of 2021 (considering the intent to secure relatively good margin in Q4 21' compared to avg of only 7 USD/brl last few years).

They would have bought brent crude at 100 USD and sold gasoline at 110 USD/brl in futures market with maturity of 2 years (end of 2023).

The above means they have a margin swap hedging contract valued at 10 million barrels x 10 USD/brl = USD 100 million expiring by Dec 2023.

Now by end of Q2 , the gasoline margin had expanded to 32 USD/brl.

They would need to mark to market the hedging contract status by end of Q2

This means they will report an unrealized hedging loss of 10 million x 22 USD/brl (crack expansion from their hedging to 32 from 10), which equal 220 million USD.

Now by end of Q3, if the present crack maintains for gasoline, the crack would drop back to 10 USD/brl resulting with zero hedging loss.

They can choose to realize the hedging by this qtr without affecting the P&L at all or they can do it when another opportunity arise before end of 2023 (but they must realize before the maturity).

it seems that i3 does not have qualified accountant who understands hedging...

EPS over RM 2 sen + 10 sen dividend

kyy must be very sad looking henyuan uptrend as he cut loss around RM 5

from the price movement lately and today recovering prior to results, HY results should be very good...

The last PP to raise funds which bring NOSH to over 2b shares for LSS4 is a bad move as LSS4 can only bring less than 10% return, my guess is likely 5% based on estimate by people who in the industry due to increase in commodity costs. With such a hugh NOSH, jaks cannot even make 1 sen EPS quarterly. Local business loss RM 15m. Vietnam Power Plant contributed RM 30m. Net profit RM 15m.

Good results with derivative loss about RM 370m+...

uncle bought around RM 6 and cut loss below RM 5, sure very pain lah like someones here keep bad mouthing...

Let see whether MM chun or not. Will know the results in few days time...

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MoneyMakers

Another bad QR like Q1 (nobody knows HY hedging loss) - sure panic selloff down to rm3 (historical fair value)

47 minutes ago

profit taking is well absorbed... should start second wave up

petron results should be out today or tomo...

Current rally of HY and Petron is pre-result rally. If results good, price will have further to go or vice versa...

petron results should be out today or tomo...

i made hugh profit as i bought big around 4.00-4.20 to average, thanks to MM keep creating fear to bring down price...

haha, people busy making money while MM so free blow water here non stop.

One day MM will be right lah....

there must be a bigger wave latter if results are really good...

i think is not over yet. I sold this morning to take good profit and buy back now in stages...

now everybody happy...

wow, up 10%++

Diesel Profit Margins Soar to 30-Year Seasonal High as Supply Worries Grip the US
Commodities 7 hours ago (Aug 22, 2022 04:09PM ET)

(Bloomberg) -- Diesel is fetching the highest premium to crude oil for this time of year in data going back more than 30 years.

The diesel crack spread, which represents the profit generated by turning a barrel of crude into diesel, approached $70 a barrel on Monday for the first time since June to stand at the highest for this time of year in records going back to 1986. The so-called crack spread was below $20 a barrel the same time last year. Demand is set to grow this winter with the US northeast likely burning more diesel for heating amid soaring natural gas prices.

The strength reflects growing concerns over the security of the nation’s fuel supply heading into peak demand season with national inventories at their lowest level since 2000 for this time of year. US fuelmakers haven’t been able to build up domestic stockpiles with Russian import bans reshuffling global trade patterns.

In New York Harbor, diesel tanks have seasonally never been emptier. Supplies could shrink further in the coming months as Gulf Coast refiners shut units for maintenance.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/us-diesel-margins-soar-to-30-year-record-for-this-time-of-year

henyuan & petron start to uptrend prior to results. It is too early to judge whether win or loss in henyuan and petron....

When petrol price drops, demand surges... US gasoline has yet to find equilibrium yet. That is why we see crack spread increase again lately.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-recover-6-month-lows-after-drop-us-stockpiles-2022-08-17/

In a sign of strong demand, gasoline stocks drew 4.6 million barrels, much higher than the expected 1.1 million barrel draw.

"It was expected to be a friendly report and it was pretty much across the board. Some of those demand destruction concerns that the market was going through seem to be alleviated a little bit," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures group.

at RM 4, the margin of safety is very high...

i bottomed fish at RM 3.99-4.00 just now...

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Diesel-Shortage-Deepens-Global-Dependency-On-US-Fuel.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Diesel-Crisis-Is-Far-From-Over.html

Hope probability is right...

portpolio back to gain over 10% after recent rebound. Stay invested to reap big gain after the bear ended...

toyo is on the way to RM 1....

Jaks still struggling with property and construction loss of RM 40m- 50m per year... despite power plant can bring them RM 150m profit...

The beauty of this power plant is it can run on dual-fuel. The primary fuel being used to power the plant will be coal. In case of shortage of coal the plant will run on Diesel Oil. This is a good power plant and high chance govt will approve. Many Europe gas power plant covered to oil power plant due to shortage of natural gas.

The Song Hau Coal Fired Power Plant II is 2,120MW coal fired power project. It is planned in Hau Giang, Vietnam. The project is currently in permitting stage. It will be developed in multiple phases. The project construction is likely to commence in 2023 and is expected to enter into commercial operation in 2025.

The project is being developed by China Energy Construction Group and Toyo Ink Group. The project is currently owned by Toyo Ink Group.

It is a steam turbine power plant. The power plant can run on dual-fuel. The primary fuel being used to power the plant will be coal. In case of shortage of coal the plant will run on Diesel Oil.

The project cost is expected to be around $3,500m.

Development Status

The project construction is expected to commence from 2023. Subsequent to that it will enter into commercial operation by 2025.

Probably they choose not to announce details coal power plant is very sensitive as coal power plant is very sensitive politically and environmentally (avoid environmental lobby groups from making noise). If i were the mgt, i will choose to be low profile

Toyo did ask for extension of time. Just they keep very low profile esp CEEC, project partner.

With reference to the Company’s announcement made on 29 December 2020 on the execution of the BOT Contract with the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (“MOIT”) and the Government Guarantee (“GGU”) with the Government of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam for the investment and development of “Song Hau 2 Thermal Power Plant Project” in Vietnam (“the Project”), the Board of Directors of TVHB wishes to announce that the Company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Toyo Ink Group Berhad is in the midst of preparation of the relevant documents to meet the financial close which was extended to 24 June 2022 by the MOIT vide their letter dated 21 March 2022. The meeting of the performance of the financial obligations would need MOIT approval.

TVHB will make the necessary announcement on the progress of the Song Hau 2 Thermal Power Plant Project to Bursa Securities in due course.

This announcement is dated 24 June 2022.

i also think chance is very high to get final approval for the financial close esp when their Prime Minister also visited the site lately. Now Euro faced great problem for gas fired power plant. I don't think gas power plant is a good option now.

@hng33, how confidence are you that this financial close will get govt approval? I believe project partner is still CEEC and they want to be very low profile this round.

unless power plant cannot be approved and proceeded, current price is still very very cheap with potential 5x return...

nice. Look like the project will get official approval and announcement soon for this national strategic important project. Vietnam needs a lot of power and gas power plant will not be viable for now.

crack spread is rebounding today, both July and Aug...
USD 15 is a more sustainable than USD 30

i3 is just a blow water forum nowadays, no need to take it so seriously.
If mm so smart can predict oil price to collapse, can make billion by shorting oil futures in US Mkt, where got so much to blow water in i3....

Bought toyoven after achieving financial close while price is still very cheap.

still in early stage of uptrend...Will surely back to at least RM 1

i think RM 1 is not a problem at least...financial close achieved. Such a significant project chances of getting final approval is very high.

achieve financial close... subject to Vietnam govt final approval

nice price...

margin of safety is very high if bottom fish at current price...

current price is lower than last year average price where crack spread below USD 10 and oil at USD 50-70.

about time to bottom fish....

At current price RM 4.20, the crack spread should be USD 10 or below....
No need to keep repeating few times today lah.

Average spread 2021 was USD 7.70. HY price range for year 2021 was around RM 3.90-6.20 average about RM 4.90

Avg crack spread(from SSlee) :
Q12022 - about USD14 ,
2021 -about USD7.78 ,
2020 -aboutUSD1.44

kyy called sell yesterday at 4.10, you bought yesterday you made money...

Agreed...few of them want every one to lost money.

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Don't be surprised that there are a few of these agents here. Repetitively attacking nonstop daily and if you check their profiles, their comments are centred to just condemning only. No liking but wish the stock dead. So happy when the stock price drop, so happy retailers lose. Malaysia bodoh boleh ya. Can you spot the agent provocateurs?

uncle's stand and tone can change very fast also...today say sell, next few days say buy.