I miss those days where there're around 5-10 ppl sharing info and exchanging intelligent constructive views.

When a counter gets attention this is inevitable.

Good morning everyone.

RM 4+ mil transacted within half a day. I wonder who the buyers are.

Thank you Edward for the regular update.

RM 1.5 mil transacted by 10 am. Hopefully the gate to price below RM 1.70 is closed for good.

So fast everyone already loaded enough?

谢谢 Albukhary 大大的分享。钱到投资时方知不够。苦恼中...

Thanks for your perspective. It's good to know that I'm not being overly optimistic.

Good morning to all.

Thanks Mr Pauper for your input! I'm in for the long term for sure (2 years + at least to enjoy the full upside).

That's what I've been thinking to myself but just want to check with you guys again. Thanks for reaffirming my belief. Q2 may not be great, but it should be decent with a chance of a small dividend.

I'm secretly imagining the potential upside of Q3. Then I secretly imagine is the price remains high fora few more quarters.... then I imagine the safeguard being extended... XD

I was just moving my money around preparing to buy one more shot. But before I could get my funds in the price went up.... Another 15-20 days to buy. Or shall I wait for Q2 to be released first to be safe just in case there's a short term dip?

Hi bro Zeff Tan. If you don't mind me asking, are you vested in other long steel counters beside ssteel?

I'm only holding ssteel. ^^

That extra 15% profit margin would roughly translate into an EPS of around 16-20 cents for Q3 alone. 0_o'!

If things just continue to maintain for the following quarters after Q3. We're looking at 60-80 cents EPS per year?

That's scary. Doubting my own calculation... PE 8-10 would give us...

XD

Looking at the queue no., it's moving into RM 0.15X range soon. >_<

Dumb dumb hold?

Accumulation phase after the scare.

Good afternoon to you, bro Edward.

Hengyuan is the centre of attention now.

Wait for ssteel AR next month. Even if it's not outstanding, it should bag an annual EPS of no less than 26-27 cents. Hopeful that there'll be a decent dividend too. Price could touch RM 2.00.

It looks like the price here will be stable between 1.65-1.70 for a while.

Based on what I gathered from what leoting and Edward shared on both AnnJoo and Ssteel forum, it seems that ssteel might be doing okay for Q2 2017 but annjoo might fair a bit worse off compare to their Q1 respectively.

Ann Joo may have an advantage in terms of flexibility in raw material. This means the company's margin has been higher than Ssteel.

While this is preferred from an operating risk / absolute profit stability perspective, this also means that the increase in margin will not be as drastic as Ssteel. A simple example is comparing an increase from 10% to 15 %, to another scenario where margin increased from 5% to 10%.

I am hopeful that ssteel will turn out to have much more upward potential in the coming 2 years.

Please don't run first...

Leo大大，多谢分享。又长知识了。InvesTalks里，大部分都是针对ssteel正面的分享。看来很被看好。

接下来这几个星期，有机会我也加码吧。^^

Guys, let's be fair and not ask Edward to reveal sensitive information that will get him into trouble. I think he's been very selfless in sharing a lot of info that, at least I would not be able to get. For that, thank you again Edward.

I'm happy to just have him onboard with me. =]

5 more weeks to annual report right? Neck long d...

Thank you Edward for the info!

OOMMGG, I definitely hope that it can climb to RM 2.08 as you estimated or even higher. I was just simulating a very bad scenario for stress test.

Btw, are we at PE 8 already? Annjoo is at 7 and Masteel is at around 8 I think. So giving ssteel 6.5 iearlier was being conservative.

Finger crossed.

Bro David, please elaborate. Don't drop one phrase without explanation. How can anyone learn like this? Sharing is caring.

For me, still looking at the big picture 2-3 years down the road where TP is at least RM 2.80.

If Edwardljhoo's source is accurate, this coming QR should not be lower than EPS 4.2 cents anyhow. Total EPS 25 cents. PE 6.5 gives RM 1.63.

Don't think the profit can drop more than 40-50% from last quarter and don't think a company that has gotten out of red deserves a PE any lower than 6.5.

That's my bottom line liao.

So sad, keep revising my bottom line downward. But hopefully get a better EPS and market gives it a fairer PE.

It's caused by poor sentiment for steel counters in Q2 I think? If can hold for as short as 2-3 quarters, this price level is a steal.

But holding steel for just another 2-3 quarters will not fully unleash the true value.

It's fine if it's just general sentiment. I plan to hold it for mid-long term. I just want to make sure it not something cooking up but we're being kept in the dark.

Hentara. Quickly cut loss at below RM 1.60 for us to absorb, volume not enough.

The price is being pressed down now. This is likely the last dip before the uptrend leading to QR...

Held on to this through the low (RM 1.16-1.20), now it's just my faith that their final quarter will be better than the previous quarter.

Past 3Q cumulative EPS is 20.8 cents (4.60 + 8.67 + 7.54).

Say this coming QR is bad with EPS 6.2 cents. That'd give FY EPS 27 cents. Apply a low PE ratio of 6.5 (while 7+ is probably fairer), the price would be RM 1.76.

That's my worst case scenario.

Edward, do you have any source for the margin and volume?

There're many factors in play as usual. I'm still hopeful to see a EPS of around 9 cents+ for the next QR, pushing the financial year's EPS to c 30 cents.

Last quarter I had a pretty optimistic view and ppl were less optimistic due to CNY and shorter month (Feb). Anyway, it can only go up from here. It's only how fast and how far that is still unknown. =]

In one month's time, the rolling 4 quarter EPS should be at least 30 cents. Current PE valuation for steel companies is around 7 now.

Hopefully in 2-4 more quarters following the next QR, PE could reach 8-ish and EPS near 40 cents. Then we're talking RM 3.

Dipping below RM 1.20. Really attractive now.

I hear you. We all hope that the price can be higher now. But as a consolation, it's almost guaranteed that it'll hit RM 2.00 as early as 3 months later. Personally I'm looking at a higher TP. Just dumb dumb hold.

Cooling. Your stupidity and illogic is so immense it upsets ppl. Wilson is not alone.

You might think it's funny and harmless to talk rubbish online. But truth is, it'll manifest in other areas in your real life. Keep doing this, and it will form and reinforce this element in your character.

It's your life you're messing with. To us, you're just a passerby that we can easily ignore. You will have to live with your character for life. Now, give it a thought and see if it's still funny.

Where was the gap down you little boys called out so frantically?

Cpteh is the reason I lost so much money in Mycron last time. Followed his advice to cut loss, if I had held on for just another 1-2 weeks I would have made some handsome profit. Follow cpteh all you want.

Wah. Every time when I go for vacation only sales. Buy!

Want to thank leoting, Albukhary, money, probability and MrPauper sifu's. it was your posts and sharing that gave me so much insights and confidence. I never had a single doubt in this ssteel. Thank you guys.

I'm terrible at timing. But I plan to hold for quite a while so I just buy early when the prospects are obvious but not yet bleeding obvious. Everyone plays it differently. =]

Andry, your point was very valid. It addressed the possible and likely decrease in volume (revenue). For a guesstimate, we can refer to the 6 quarters immediately before the most recent quarter. The revenue ranges between 585-620m. There were shorter quarter (Q1) and also quarter just before the trial import duty was put in place. But we also need to have in mind the material cost, and the steel price. And in terms of inventory, the volume of inventory and the impact of recognizing cost by FIFO.

In summary, there is a chance to not have a higher EPS than last quarter, but it is unlikely to be lower than 6 cents. (Assuming margin dropped to 4% on a revenue of c 580m.)

With EPS of 13.27 cents from the first 2 quarters in FY 2017, the next floored at 5-6 cents and the last quarter at least 9 or 10 cents. The lowest full year EPS is 27 cents.

Annjoo is already trading above PE 8. I think the PE of steel company would trend higher going forward with better prospects.

The share price is really about future prospects and less of the past. The past merely serves as an indicator of management strength/drive and as foundations to build future projections. We haven't gone into the track record of the family managing it now. And also not yet touched on the 2 years after 2017.

If the next QR shows a EPS of 6 cents, making the YTD EPS 19 cents with one more quarter to go (which would then be at least 9 cents), I wonder which direction would the market push the price from the current level of RM 1.40.

>_<
He must have used google translate. Big Horse means Malaysia.

SProbability, MrPauper and Albukhary. You guys are really patient here explaining the same things to those who didn't spend time doing homework. I think we just sit tight and let the next QR speaks for it self.

I'm not sure why there's a need to discuss whether it's undervalued or not. The only relevant question is how undervalued it is. EPS 10 not realistic? Fine, use 8 cents. PE 8-9 too high? Fine use 7.

8 x 4 x 7 = 224

Current price is 140. It implies,

7 x 4 x 5 = 140

So it is more realistic to have avg 7 cents EPS and to have this stock valued at PE 5 given a 3-year import duty?

这么笨：不懂你是中英文水平都不理想，或是对自己盲目引用的文句一窍不通，又或者在逻辑思维上有很大的进步空间。

我并未没有要求任何一个指定的人去帮我想或做任何事。这是你逻辑上有毛病或对文句的引用一知半解。我做的是推算，再请任何自愿的人一起推敲和讨论。并没有强求任何一个对这话题没有兴趣的人去给我答复。

无论如何，这么简单不起眼又是不符义论性的问题也能让你那么不高兴。你的回复，反映的不是我的问题有什么毛病，而是你的心胸，和你对人生的态度。

共勉之。

I still do not mind being a friend. But please leave your issues and unhappiness from your life out and make constructive comments.

备注：你的中英翻译真的。。。无语。

Another post from me, Sorry too excited now. 730m revenue last quarter, x 4 to get 3 Bil full year revenue. Apply a margin of 6% to get 180m net profit. That's 10.7 cents EPS per quarter. 43 cents EPS per year.

Above I have assumed no increase in sales volume, and only a 1% improvement in margin (net profit/revenue was 5.0% last quarter).

At least 43 cents EPS in the next 12 months. Apply this with a low PE of 7 already get RM 3.00. Did I get anything wrong? I'm doubting my own simple projection.

I have to say. Leo Ting sifu's blogs are very comprehensive and insightful, I benefited greatly from his sharing. He also considered increased in sales volume in the next 3 years.

Albukhary sifu, thanks for the sharing. I was not aware of ssteel's past glorious days. Last quarter revenue was 731.6m with a net profit of 36.6m. With the mega projects lined up and import duty in place for another 3 years, it'll be sellers'market and ssteel should be able to squeeze out at least 2-3% more margin. That would bring the net profit to no less than the 45m during the glorious days.

Within 6 months (2 more QR will be out), it should hit RM 2.00 (conservative) if not RM 2.40 (more realistic). In 12 -15 months time, RM 3.00 or more. Am I thinking too big? Time will tell. =]

With a 3-year import duty, we'll be looking at a much higher PE ratio. Perhaps 8-12.