So far 3 cents down with a volume of 160 lots. Everyone else is waiting for the good news. 3 more days or earlier to the good news that will push the price up to c RM 1.50 immediately and towards RM 2.00 in the mid term.

If the rumour about extension of import duty was just a lie? The support of RM 1.16/1.17 was just tested. Just need to hold for 2 more months for the next QR with EPS of perhaps 10-12 cents where the price will sure go up to at least RM 1.50.

Still seems pretty safe to me.

Yes. Or maybe even 1.5.

Everyone comes back when it's on the rise.

Thanks Albukhary. It's not the 2 year safeguard I was hoping for but this is good news nonetheless. Hope it goes back up to RM 1.35 by next Monday for it to shoot back up to start at RM 1.50-1.55 on Tuesday.

Morning session Goreng first round. Afternoon session for relatives and friends.

See how they play this game?

The buy queue at 8:58AM is crazy. 50 cents also got?

When it was at RM 1.50+ level, everyone was so hyped that it would go RM 1.80 next. Actually the potential is still there, this import duty scare is just to instill fear in us Ikan bilis. Just give it 3 more months and it would be clear.

Hehe. Ok. But what's a reasonable PE? 6? 8? 10? Depends on stability of the profit and whether import duty is remained. PE 6 should be conservative enough so we have margin?

Thanks Yipman for your view. I agree that with everything constant Q3 (CNY and Feb having just 28 days) should see a reduction. The counter argument is the much higher Steel price in Q1'17. I guess a really conservative EPS would be 6 cents each for next 2 quarters? Then we can expect FY EPS of 25 cents. PE 6 would give RM 1.50.

This should be quite conservative. From RM 1.17 there's at least 25% headroom.

Bon bon. There's no better stock. Everyone's risk/reward preference and appetite is different. You can say annjoo is safer (4 quarters in the green with PE 7+). Ssteel is 2 quarters in the green and still -ve PE now. Price climbs very fast when a counter is recognized as out of the red for real. If FY EPS can hit 30 cents, ssteel has quite a big upside opportunity.

Maybe the operator thinks ssteel is easiest to press/pull hence became the target?

Classic scenario of digging a hole to trap ppl.

Wise. There're many reasons or possibilities when a director sells his/her shares. But there's only one reason when one buys in.

Think about it. Is this information concealed from the public? Nope. It's available and known all this while. Why would anyone pull such a great effort to spam a sms/msg to remind/warn so many ppl? The objective is to have a synchronized same day sell down of all steel counters. Why synchronized? So that there's fear and panic sell down.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it's just a kind soul doing community service. When you sell, there's a counter party happily collecting.

I have no doubt that Q1 report will be much better than the previous quarter (EPS 8.67). This is almost guaranteed comparing the Q1-2017 local steel price against the previous quarter. Volume shouldn't be a meaningful risk.

Now the outcome on 10 April is unknown. But a competent investor shouldn't bet on the outcome but instead have plans for either outcome. From what is shared, it seems that the impact of removing the duty is negligible to none in the short term. This is because (1) currently China steel price is already trading at similar level as local steel price; (2) Chinese govt has set goals to curb steel over-production (this should help to keep the China steel price up); and (3) Strengthened/strengthening renminbi will also help to hold this true at least in the short to mid term.

Well. The real risk Lies in the mid-long term (1-2 years ahead) prospect of steel. Coming 6 months should be good, coming 2 QR will wrap the FY2017 with at least EPS = 4.6+8.67+10+8>31. Not sure if I can get any more conservative setting the next EPS at 10. Let's apply a low PE of 6 and that would give us RM 1.86.

Pls share your views. =]

All steel counters (annjoo, masteel, ssteel and lionind) took a big hit. I hope this is them spreading rumors to sell down before collecting more at a low price before Miti announce of the extension. Even if there's no extension to the duty, china rebar price is not really cheaper than the local price now. Hmm...

Er. Broke 1.40?!

No QR released last night wo. Why wanna bluff?

Thanks. I could only compile but you guys are sharing insights. Thank you for sharing. Got so much to learn from you guys. Thumbs up.

Thank you Mr Pauper. You are truly selfless in sharing your compilation of prices. Also thank the other Sifu's who have been contributing from time to time.

Compiling what is shared here so far plus a bit of my thoughts (pls correct me if I got anything wrong):

Known:
1) steel price remains strong at sub- RM 2.3-2.4k level over Q1.

2) the steel price level quoted (sub-RM 2.3-2.4k) is local price hence more reliable than benchmarking against China steel price (I remember mycron failed to charge its customers the international market price - and the same situation is seen here where the local price softened a little when China steel price increased by 20%)

Half-Certain:
3) material cost should not have increased in line with steel price

4) even if we assume material cost increase by same %, the other operating cost is not affected (if everything else remains the same) hence the profit margin will automatically get a boost

5) the volume - should be stable given its position as a main player but cannot entirely rule out the possibility of a reduction as price has increased much from last year.

Unknown:
6) The extension of import duty due next month

7) whether the recent mega projects will somehow source the steel from china


Overall, the prospects seems positive but there are two large unknowns that can potentially spoil the soup.

Falling below the EMA 30 line. >_<

Wow. Being pressed below 90 cents. Interesting.

Alright guys! Thanks for the sharing. Mid-End of April is when this counter will take off then!
But are we certain that import duty will be extended? Has the authority given any hint?

I really hope so. The price has been stagnating at the sub-1.40 level for far too long.

LIONIND up. Ssteel down. What is this.
=|

TP is RM 1.2?

Couldn't hold RM 1.50 ground. =|
Tomorrow try again.

LIONIND rose 20% today. Salivate. Hopefully we don't have to wait so long.

Finally it moved. Let's not go back to 1.4+ level.

It's mostly moving side ways. >_<

I got hit at several counters. Sigh. Severely burnt.

谢谢各位大大的解释。

Low volume driving down the price.

对不起，恕我愚昧，文中好像没有什么提到南钢。大致上比较看好Ann joo 和cscstel, 还是我没有看懂？

How come recently i wait for QR just to also not able to tell if the price would go up or down th next day...? I feel very incompetent...sigh.

A big S 5,000 lots is parked at 90 cents. =\

I checked out some other plantation counters. Generally price trending down in the short term due to CPO price. What's the TP to unload for you guys if QR is as what you expect?

I was hoping for more.

I didn't buy but just have to say I'm really impressed by Hng33 here.

Can't agree more. I also wait until neck long and pain.

Sigh. Kena holland-ed.

75.5 cents is a chun entry price. After the dust has settled I believe it'd climb above 80 cents.

Erm... That was my buddy and he has no interest in buying/selling this counter. He only shared the msg from his RHB broker with me.

I think everyone missed the my question. I'm not seeking advice about whether to listen to others or not. But whether if anyone has more insight into the upcoming QR or some news that was not pinned here.

Some counters ppl got insider news so I wanted to 8 a bit only.... I got limited exposure.

Why does it keep sliding but by bit...? Really need patience with this counter.

Bought too little when it was sub RM 2.3. Didn't expect it to rise so soon.

I bought at 70 cents based on TA.

What's wrong with Notion? I wanted to sell at 86 cents but my friend told me that it might go up to RM 1. Now back to RM 0.81. =\

Top up at 1.44. Okay let's huat together. First TP 1.6!

Opened at 1.44 all the way up to 1.49. Then heavy selling to push the price back to 1.44. Is this how big players play the game? Collect again later so that they get to make the profit in that price range twice?

Gapped up. But seems like a lot of ppl very happy to let go at 1.46-1.48.