without over valued story, retailers wont sell their tickets at discount price.

Most retailers and local analysts see overvalued. while Foreign Fund Manager see under valued. Local analysts basic salary RM 4k. FF basic salary in Arbdn 20K pound = RM 120K /month. why Arbdn capable to pay such salary?

0.46 big wall very hard to break

EPF & Foreign Fund keep buying , retailers keep selling.

break new high

arbdn bough kossan at March, 2 months later kossan up 60%. today still gain 30% much better than 7113 and supermx

1.3 today or next week?

till Nov, no more tin from Myanmar. inventory had reach the peak. demand will suddenly spike. tech product ez to broke , wear and tear, upgrade , what ever reason, nothing can hold the trends, except WW3

If you think solar/EV/AI is good to invest. they all need tin.

tin price have to be USD 24000 to match MSC current price.

hng33 , we should use MA 25 as reference for Q3. Tin above 25000 should bring MSC to 3.1 +. current price 2.26 is fair to tin below USD 23500. MSC just need tin about 16000 to break even.

3-3 bull
4-2 big bull
if PN win 4-2 KLSE waterfall

Mining revenues is directly proportional to tin price , Q3 we may anticipated PBT 29 m++ from the mining segment.
For the smelting segment. Q2 is really affected by the planned annual shutdown and maintenance.(Q1 33.2 m , Q2 21.6m) Q3 should see at least PBT 35 m from the smelting segment. ** assume average tin price in Q3 is about USD 27800.

bullrun2025

Why Q3 2022 suffered lost 33 mil

2022 Q3 lost is due to unexpected furnace outage at Pulau Indah plant and furnace re-bricking costs.
They have taken preventive action to ensure no more similar disruption in future

The tin smelting segment recorded a profit before tax of RM21.6 million in 2Q 2023 as compared
with RM33.2 million in 1Q 2023. This was mainly due to lower sales quantity of refined tin in 2Q 2023
as a result of the planned annual shutdown and maintenance of the TSL furnace at Pulau Indah that
commenced beginning of June 2023.

The tin mining segment recorded a profit before tax of RM23.2 million in 2Q 2023 as compared with
RM23.7 million in 1Q 2023. This was mainly due to lower quantity of tin production in 2Q 2023
because of inclement weather, the Ramadan period and its extended Raya holidays. (special holiday really hurt mining)

2022 Q1 /Q2 was affected by covid, otherwise PAT will be much higher.
Looking Forward , Q3 &Q4 >> assume smooth production , higher tin price means higher profit.
1st half PAT already 63 m , 2nd half 80 m is reasonable . EPS 0.32-0.34 , share price should be ??

FYI Average Tin price in Q2 is USD 25700 (RM 116500). While Q3 up to date is USD 28340 (RM 130000 )
2022 VS 2023
Q1 USD 43104 PAT 64 m
Q1 USD 25460 PAT 35 m

Q2 USD 35705 PAT 39 m
Q2 USD 25700 PAT 28 m

Q3 USD 23425 (Production down) PAT -31 m
Q3 USD 28340 * PAT ??

Q4 USD 21512 PAT 25 m
Q4 ??

2022PAT 87M
2023PAT 35 + 28 + Q3 + Q4 = ??

KClow

Lol.jokers la u.
Profit down tin.down.compared to then.
So next qr will be 1000%increase in profits..lol..how.

KClow , 1000 % increase is for sure . 2023 EPS should be around 0.32-0.34
35+28+40+40 = 143 m , based on current environment. 143 m is not difficult as Tin price surely higher than 1st half.

kebling you are right. what next?

kebling98

Next Friday 2Q profit maybe just around 25-30m
But 3Q 45m no problem lah
Hold MSc until next year loh 3.5-5 no problem lah

缅矿初始严控 锡价扎稳根基
供应端，云锡7月中旬减产影响当月锡锭产出，SMM认为上月国内锡产出11395吨，预计8月进一步减至9360吨。常规检修外，市场积极评估缅矿扰动，目前矿洞生产、选矿、物流都已停工，口岸部分精矿还在清关，普遍认为7月缅矿进口可能提升到2.5万实物吨，折合约5000金属吨，8月下旬缅矿供应相对停滞。佤邦此次限矿初步政策执行的力度很大，但仍缺少管制目标、复产达标、督导持续性的准确消息，具体信息仍很模糊。若本次禁矿持续2—3个月，将影响四季度国内锡炼厂生产，下半年国内锡锭月均产量将明显低于上半年。当前受缅矿扰动负面区间预期值较宽，预计影响4000—8000金属吨供应。

physical tin supply shortage will be hot issue once Myanmar fully stop delivery tin.

china tin stocks all up this morning.

豫光金铅 8.01 10.03%
电工合金 11.22 3.03%
盛达资源 13.84 2.44%
金徽股份 14.40 1.77%
光智科技 21.15 1.68%
华钰矿业 9.76 1.56%
福达合金 16.43 1.36%
白银有色 3.03 1.34%
悦安新材 44.57 1.32%
中色股份 5.17 0.98%

Myanmar and Indonesia keen to protect non-renewable resources. minimize the wasting and maximize the profits.

Exempted from the country's ban on raw mineral exports, Freeport Indonesia was granted an export license on July 24 for 1.7 million metric tons of copper concentrate, the company said in a US SEC filing on Thursday.

Indonesia in June banned outbound shipments of raw minerals to attract investment into its metals processing industry and boost revenue, but said it would allow several companies including Freeport to continue exporting until mid-2024 to give them time to finish building smelters.

But the government imposed new duties on products shipped by these companies, which Freeport Indonesia might contest, according to the filing.


It said that under Freeport Indonesia's 2018 special mining license, no duties are required after its smelter is at least half-complete.

A finance ministry regulation issued last month stated that exports of copper concentrate would continue to incur duties at 5% to 10% rates, even if companies' smelter construction was beyond 50%. - Reuters

washed few round already, time to fly

Myanmar banned already. How about Indonesia ?

Tin price will stay above 28000 for very long times. MSC profit will always break 140 m / year. EPS minimum 0.333.
P/E 10 = 3.33

In a resolute move, the Wa State Government has firmly enforced the suspension of all mining activities, according to the “Wa Jing Zi No. 2023-06” notice issued by the Central Economic Commission on April 15 and the subsequent “Notice on the Implementation of ‘Suspension of All Mineral Resources Exploitation'” on May 20. Effective from August 1, 2023, all mines and processing plants, regardless of size, have ceased production. The majority of local workers have been temporarily dismissed, and ore transport vehicles are prohibited from operation to prevent any raw ore transportation. A working group will enforce the suspension with mine inspections.

Top leaders of Wa State convened to discuss the mining ban although no formal statement has yet been released.

Currently, it is reported that the Wa State government has approximately two million physical tons of mined raw ore stocks, with an estimated benefication potential of 5,000-6,000 metal tons of tin concentrate. However, due to the shutdown of the dressing plant, benefication and sales of concentrate products have been halted. Additionally, around 1,500 metal tons of tin ore are awaiting clearance at the Meng’a Port, potentially leading to a period of stagnation in exports after August 10.

The market’s previous expectations of one to three months for the suspension now seem overly optimistic, as the Wa State Government is clearly committed to policy enforcement. An expectation that processing of stockpiles could still go ahead appears to have been quashed by the ban on ore transport. Reopening of mines may also now take longer.

July exports from Wa State were significantly up as local traders cashed in inventories ahead of the ban. Until Wa State resumes normal production, China smelting raw material supply is expected to gradually decrease, making it challenging to return to the production levels experienced in the first half of this year.

CIMB willing to buy back CW at high premium . this CI expired date 30/8. this happen when MM afraid of limit up could take place before the expired date.

The high cash premium has drawn in metal at multiple LME warehouse locations.

Deliveries have been concentrated at Malaysia's Port Klang and Singapore, but tin has also been warranted in Rotterdam, Antwerp, the Italian ports of Genoa and Trieste, the Spanish port of Bilbao and the U.S.

guess who busy delivery physical tin in port klang and make huge profits?

Myanmar Wa region department , or The Ministry of Finance and the Bureau of Industry and Mining does not made any announcement yet. LME Tin price hover around 27800 awaiting news to find direction

good closing ,next 1.3

Hot money from Nasdaq is one the way to BURSA. just hold and enjoy the show

every usd 2000/mt changes will affect MSC earning by 10%/year.

Strong ESG integration in producing greener tin. MSC is well-placed to reap the positive
spillover effect of structural demand for environmentally-friendly commodities. MSC is
doubling its efforts to integrate ESG practices across its businesses, especially through the
new plant. The plant uses 1.26MWp solar PV panels and a waste heat recovery function that
will harness thermal energy from the furnace’s flue gas to generate power. The use of
natural gas and the new TSL furnace will help raise efficiency and reduce carbon emissions
by at least 1,000mt/year, which means MSC’s smelter will have one of the lowest carbon
footprints globally. Its RHT mine is the only tin mine in Malaysia that operates using two of its
own mini hydropower stations. These practices could result in MSC becoming the preferred
ESG investing target, besides benefitting from growing demand for eco-friendly tin products

selling pressure from contra player getting less.

If break 118 , confirm big uptrend

some insider buy before the QR ?

agree with hng33 and kebling, the inventory have cushion for the supply disruption, Tin price might not spike at this moment , but 28000 good enough to send MSC to above 3.50. The future is Tech, Tech need more and more Tin

5. A smooth demobilisation process for mine workers, inclusive of water and electricity safety provisions, is stipulated.

this request show the suspension could take few months

The Ministry of Finance and the Bureau of Industry and Mining, in accordance with “Wa Jing Zi No. 2023-06”, detailed the upcoming changes:

1. All mines within the mining area of Wa must gear up for the cessation of production from August 1. Preservation of existing facilities and infrastructures is mandated, with stringent penalties for intentional destruction or safety violations.

2. The state’s mines, open-pit mining areas, and concentrators are to enhance safety measures in slag piles, tailings, roads, and rivers prior to the rainy season to prevent safety hazards related to the mining halt.

3. Pumping operations will be permitted to avert mine collapse and minor damages, but any form of exploration or mining will remain prohibited.

4. Mining companies are instructed to collaborate with the Bureau of Industry and Mining’s Man Maw Inspection Section to settle wage disputes and trade debts for mining workers, precluding potential large-scale safety incidents.

5. A smooth demobilisation process for mine workers, inclusive of water and electricity safety provisions, is stipulated.

The unyielding stance exhibited by the Wa State government in its latest correspondence to mining firms demonstrates its serious intent to proceed with the mining suspension. It is positioned as a strong message to the mining sector about the government’s unwavering commitment to promote sustainable mining practices, protect the environment, and safeguard the welfare of mine workers. Companies failing to adhere to these guidelines risk facing severe economic and criminal repercussions.


Our free fortnightly email newsletter providing a summary of the latest tin industry developments as well International Tin Association news.

always remember, Msc fair price is 3.13 for Tin 24500 , but now above 28000 for sometimes already. Not like glove , no one can simply build a tin mining business. it is limited , non-renewable resources.

soon will have PT , is Friday, hope can close above 2.28 , than next week 2.4 /2.8 is promising

https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/perus-corani-romina-mine-projects-postponed-to-2024

Activists plan demonstrations across Peru July 27-29 to denounce Boluarte government. Heightened security likely.

must break 2.28 to move higher

some bet on myanmar ban on August
some bet myanmar will not ban
some wait and see
If August 1 , No ban , the first one will sell, the third one will collect >>> back to 1.9-2.0?
If Myanmar ban, all panic buy>>> limit up? 3++

Tin 29750#

tin is heading to 30000

someone draw a sell signal , guess later many will sell down for that artist

Good analyst
8dragon

Come back end of the year, I'm pretty sure the share price still stay @ 2.0-2.2 level..

8dragon

@ 2.22 considered over value for this stock....

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/peru-police-clash-with-protesters-demanding-president-step-down/article67113633.ece