Tin supplies could dry up if Indonesia executes a rumoured ban on shipping tin ingots
Myanmar’s Wa State has already moved to curb the export of what amounts to around 10% of tin concentrate supply globally
Fitch sees prices 25% higher this year and almost doubling to US$45,000/t by 2032

Tin is about to be a very hot commodity, with one forecaster upping its prediction for the spice(y) metal up a whopping 25% for 2023.

It comes as Indonesia and a semi-autonomous state in Myanmar called Wa, not to be confused with the soon to be former Premier Mark McGowan’s all conquering rock-shipping empire of WA, make cartel style moves that will take a big chunk of supply from the market’s leading exporters out of the market.

Fitch Solutions reckons the tin price could avoid the slump facing other battery metals in 2023 on the back of (unconfirmed) news Indonesia could ban partially refined tin ingots from export from June, and a mining ban in the Wa State that could see 10% of tin concentrate supplies and much of China’s feedstock stay in the ground.

That has prompted its analysts to lift prices from US$20,000/t to US$25,000/t for 2023, a 25% lift.

But unusually for commodities forecasting, its long term price assumptions for tin — based off a looming supply cliff and rising demand from electronics (around half of primary tin supply goes into lead-free solder), EVs and solar panels — are extraordinarily bullish.

2023 forecast tin price 24650. average price up to end of June is 26000.

We project FY22-FY23 net profit estimates of RM152.3m-RM127.3m
(vs. RM118.1m actual net profit in FY21) based on 2022/2023
consensus tin price forecasts of USD31,784/USD24,650 per MT.
Valuations and recommendation. We value MSC at RM3.13
based on DCF (WACC: 8.1%; TG: 2%) which implies FY22E PER of
8.6x. There is no adjustment to fair value based on ESG (3-star ESG
rating as appraised by us).

If fair value of MSC is 3.13 at tin price 24650. What is her fair price should be now?

Firstly, MSC
could raise its mining output by 67% to 15MT/day in FY23 from
9MT/day currently by exploiting the eastern boundary of its existing
tin mine in Perak, which would be made possible with the
acquisition of neighbouring land

With the operation in the Pulau Indah (“PI”) plant, using newer and more efficient technology on
target to achieve higher capacity and full commission in the near future, and with the planned closure
of the old plant at Butterworth, the Group expects higher operational efficiency, lower operational
and manpower costs, while reducing its overall carbon footprint.
For the tin mining segment, the Group continues to focus on improving and increasing daily mining
output and overall mining productivity. Recent acquisition of an adjacent mining landbank allows the
Group to expand its mining activities and potential tin resource within its current mine vicinity.

might hover in range 2.2to 2.4 for this months. flash out contra or weak players

US in correction, Coming state elections , rate hike , both not MSC business. MSC totally drive by tin price. looking for safe heaven to secure profits in this volatile market ? no more 2++ in August

msc is safe heaven now, immune from the state elections as msc will be push up by tin price . After Myanmar ban, Tin price might break 37000 sending msc to 3.20.

27950 3 month high. after Myanmar banned , sky is the limit

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced on July 5 that China's commodity index has risen for two consecutive months, showing that as the domestic economy maintained a recovery and development trend, the demand for commodities continued to recover.

Business activities such as procurement and production were active. In June, both supply and demand in the domestic commodity market were strong". The China Commodity Index was 102.8% in June, up 2.1 percentage points from May.

get what project also useless, is downtrend

cut lose de 被割韭菜了

mrcb will follow

hng33 , this round what is your TP?

27400 bull is warming up for a big rally

"In the case of tin, a restriction from Indonesia, in conjunction with the banning of mining in Myanmar's Wa region, is likely to lead to a surge in global tin prices," Chowdhury said. "We are thus more positive towards foreign investment into the tin sector ... but highlight a slowing global economy and tight credit regulations worldwide that could delay or hamper success.

first TP 2.4
year end TP 3

PETALING JAYA: MyHSR Corporation Sdn Bhd (MyHSR Corp) has appointed Fauzi Abdul Rahman as its new non-executive chairman, effective last Thursday (June 22).
In its statement today, MyHSR Corp said that Fauzi will provide strategic guidance and support to the board, especially in assisting the government to fully privatise the high speed rail project through a private financing initiative.


CEO Ismal Kamal said Fauzi’s long history of astute leadership and unwavering commitment to positive growth will strengthen the group’s resolve in bringing the project to fruition.

Come back in August 2.55

hengyuan operator always press share price down to the fear zone. kills most of the retailers. they do it especially they found hengyuan will deliver good result soon. same tactics as 2020 Oct and April 2022. avoid this stock until it stop bleeding.

https://www.metal.com/Tin/LME_SN_3M?type=1%20Day

https://www.metal.com/Tin/sn2308?type=1%20Day

if Russia crisis turn worst, oil production will drop and lead to a jittery oil market with a likely spike to $90/b

Russia issue if turn worst will rise the oil to 100++

big guy accumulate slowly, next month big show

3.13 broke, 2.55 soon

coming 2.55 and V shape rebound if Q2 turn black

support broke ,heading to 1.33 , 1.15

might fall to 1.33 , good luck

better sink to 2.6 . maybe we should think , after the big dive, where is the ticket goes? in retailers hand? in Banker's hand?

if you are betting on HSR, do not forget ekovest , MRCB and IWCITY as well. the only question is when?

take out the dividend , IJM is trade below 52 weeks low. Guess insider already know IJM failed in MRT3 bid

price movement of IJM and YTL had reflect the MRT3 goes to YTL.

YTL bids at 10.8 B , IJM bids was 11.8 B, Even IJM has strong track record in undertaking MRT projects , but Anwar rahmah style will benefits YTL.

Maybe IJM lose in MRT3 contracts , Insider dump. YTL the winner of CMC302? MRCB get CMC 301? Gamuda CMC303?

If close below 1.52, ijm koyak.

thanks FortuneBull777, Malaysia need more ppl like you !

Saudi Arabia cut the official selling price of oil sent to Asia by 25-cents to +$2.55, according to reports.

Eamonn flagged this earlier, noting that it was expected to be cut by 40-cents (though some saw as much as $1). So that's minorly bullish and comes after three consecutive months of increasing the OSP. Still, a price cut doesn't speak to a market that's undersupplied, nor does the recent price action in crude. It plunged to $63.64 in a blowout early in Asia, though WTIcrude oil is back to $68.17, it's still down 39-cents on the day and 10% on the week

coming

too much retailers

YTLCW55 higher than this MRCB.

2023年下半年随着佤邦暂停锡矿开采且持续时间较长，中长期将导致锡矿供给端收缩，叠加半导体行业在消费需求端触底回升的推动，预期沪锡期货价格将向上突破至25万元/吨以上
means tin future will break 35000 , MSC 2.8

https://www.investing.com/commodities/tin
above USD 26

MRT3

consolidate bottom, waiting to reverse

leader busy about rainbow, toilet, plane take off time, no time for economy issue. RM depreciation , Inflation, development etc all small matters.

crazy stock

Thanks SSlee.
Meaning
Maturity date January 2022 to September 2024 was hedge in 2021
Gross margin per barrel (USD): 8.00 to 12.30

January 2023 to September 2024:
Gross margin per barrel (USD): 9.50 to 36.10
(hedge in 2022 + some hedge in 2021)

no wonder HY lose so much in hedging 2022 Q2.

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2023/06/08/sentral-reit-set-to-acquire-menara-celcom-digi-from-mrcb/

Is already June, If the hedging margin is really in the range of 12-36. Q2 should have very good return in hedging. But there is no data showing the margin is between 8.5-36 in the QR. where you guys get that info?