Another aspect to be very wary of - something I've done again and again... trying to catch "the bottom". Makes a lot of sense: "Buy at the lowest point, then sell at a big profit when it goes up." Great theory. But there's one very big problem - we don't know where the bottom really is. This one can be very painful too. We think it's already low - "surely, cannot get cheaper!" But they do.

And it's even more painful when we see other counters going up and up... especially those we had refused to buy earlier because "they have already gone up...expensive already." The technical readings are very important. No guarantee, but at least our chances are better than to go with `gut feeling'. Unfortunately, I have yet to find a local technical analyst who has consistently read the charts right. This takes a lot of skill.

@GoldenShares, I've gotten burnt too many times getting into counters based on `research' by various analysts. Not that they were always wrong for some of their analyses did `make sense'. But they tend to be like reporters - writing after the fact, i.e. after something had already happened. Now every analyst keeps harping on "crude oil declining". Jeez, even the man-on-the-street knows this. It would have been more useful had these analysts recognised the trend and made this call a few MONTHS ago (actually one foreign technical analyst did, and people would have made a lot of money betting against crude oil. Or at least avoid adding to his O&G portfolio. Greg Guenther of RudeAwakening, DailyReckoning.com).

I've realised this about the stock market and counters - "the trend" is everything. `Good' or `bad' counter/company is secondary - nowhere near as important as the trend. Makes a lot of sense. Unfortunately, all of us tend to be biased and prejudiced - we would stick to favourites even when the trend is unfavourable. And ignore those on an uptrend... just because we don't like the company or industry. I've been guilt of this so many times (for instance, had refused to buy Malaysia Airports last year. and Takaful a year before because... I didn't like these companies. That was so dumb!)

Anyway, I'm trying very hard not to let emotions put capital at risk. I LOVE these O&G counters, and they certainly look `cheap' now. Good bargain, right? Yes, but only when compared to "previous highs". We should be more concerned about protecting out capital, first and foremost. Then, "increasing probability" of making profits. It's not guaranteed but I believe going with the trend - going with whatever are "the winners"/ "the favourites" / "the darlings" of the month/quarter - gives us better chances in the market.

This is probably one of the best counters to invest in when it comes to "Oil & Gas". Can't see too many faults with it:
(1) It may not be "the biggest" but it's certainly a Malaysian company that is visible and noted in the O&G industry.
(2) Huge order book should see it through the current turmoil. Unless if the contracts are cancelled.
(3) The government will surely favour and protect SKPetro.

This is the kind of company which we the ikan bilis should `tumpang' for the ride.

BUT we must also consider "the trend". O&G aren't exactly being favoured by investors and fund managers at the moment, and it may be painful to go against this trend just because SKPetro is a good company. We have seen this happen again and again: "Low" becomes "Lower".

Let them bottom out and build a new base first. Based on experience, it's much better to only start buying when a counter/sector is showing signs of an uptrend instead of being too early... and suffering while it finds its bottom and new base.

jester, that's a wise thing to do - monitor and observe counters, and hopefully learn something from its coming movements. Make an opinion of how it might go based on fundamentals, charts etc. and see how it really goes. Won't make or lose any real money from doing this, of course. But the more important thing is in the self-education and experience gained which will be very useful in future trades which involve real money.

I've also learned something last month; from monitoring Digi. Based on the charts, had felt confident it had strong support at the 2.60 level (had held a few times), downside risk was limited and it might be worth buying and waiting for although I didn't expect it to suddenly go up so soon. The lesson for me is this: if I can afford to wait, buying counters at proven support levels wouldn't be a bad idea. (In Sendai's case, I don't know what this level is)

If one really doesn't have any other counter to speculate on, might be worth taking a risk with. It has gone down so much and the downside risk is probably very limited. The only concern is that a major shareholder might suddenly unload his shares on the open market (an indication he knows something negative is coming). Based on previous performance, Sendai is known to suddenly come to life and giving the bold speculator an attractive-enough profit margin.

@zero Yeah, the Ukraine issue is bad news for airline companies due to the fuel price factor. If they didn't hedge their prices, the rise will cut very deep. The current quarter doesn't offer much promise to AAX. That's part of the fundamentals. This is compounded by the technical charts which doesn't show a solid support level yet. Wait-and-see appears to be the better option here - wait for something positive to appear first rather than try to catch the bottom.

It has slipped below the 0.50 support level. Quite a significant fall over a week. There might be more purging of weak holders to come. Promising counter but will need to see it form a base first.

Today external events are affecting KLSE, including AA. Ukraine - specifically Russia's likely intervention and the US' and Europe's response - has served to dampen sentiments. Unfortunate for AA since it affects last week's momentum. Will have to watch how this event progresses. If it becomes worse, might be better for us to trim our portfolio. At the same time, it will also provide opportunities.

I agree with the essence of what @BursaBullTrader and @CityTrader wrote. (eh, why your comment kena flag?! Or maybe someone thought the icon is like Facebook's "Like"? Haha!) Although I do look up what business the company is in, EPS etc. the most critical factor is the cycle. Or trend. Buy a super-duper great company when it's on a downtrend and the consequence will be months and years of waiting just to break even. While it's true that we don't know the future, technical analysis does help a lot in improving our chances of making a profit. Plus avoiding/minimisng losses. I like how CityTrader and BursaBullTrader approach it when it comes to the stockmarket. Thanks for sharing.

@LittleBeatle MAS, AirAsia or whatever - sama aje. To me, essentially, it's just a question of trend and bias: upward, downward or sideways (with alternating limited up and down movements). No loyalty with or prejudice against any counter - we, our accounts are the most important. Jump in and join winners, run away when they start losing. Don't stay loyal to losers on a downtrend, else we'll suffer the real pain of seeing our trading account diminishing.

While many people argue about the airline industry, how good or bad AirAsia's management is etc. - if you are a trader, the most important factor to consider is the present trend. It doesn't matter how much debt or cash a company has, or even its profits. These are important only if you're into it for the long term, i.e. people who buy something and then will check the price every other day or once a week. Certainly not six times a day.

As it is, AA is trading at above its 20, 50 and 100-day moving averages. Relative Strength Index is above 70. The rise in the past couple of days is also accompanied by volume. We don't know how it will go next week, of course. But these are all positive indications that say "Price action looks promising". As long as it stays above its previous resistance of 2.45 or so, it's worth holding onto.

-CE: Ex. Price 1.13; Expiry 31/7/14
The last time AAX was there was 21 Oct. 2013. This is a real long shot especially in its present state. But there's time for one more quarter report, coming around May. If there are inklings of an improved performance, AAX may well start to creep up before its announcement. As it is, the price has been really beaten down. But, just like Astro more than a year ago, it later retraced the fall. 0.81 looks to be a strong support but we'll only know for sure from next week of whether the institutions are done with their selling.

I'm interested in the lower, more achievable ex. prices like -CA 0.95. But there's not much time with this one - 23/5/14. -CJ is better: 1.00; 15/12/14. Even if it's more expensive, this is the one I'd buy due to the time factor. However, will have to see the tide turning in AAX's favour first.

If your trades are in smaller amounts, brokers like Malacca Securities help a lot with minimising costs. I'm still with Affin (its trading screen sucks), with a minimum charge of RM28. Malacca Securities is significantly lower. I've been procrastinating for months from going to open an account at its SS2 office. The traffic congestion at Persiaran Surian from Kota Damansara really discourages me from going that side.

This counter hasn't been going anywhere for almost two years. One of the disappointing oil & gas companies price-wise. Something like Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering (MHB). Investors seem to have forgotten about these two while a significantly lesser O&G counters like TH Heavy aka Ramunia have doubled in price. Can't even stay at 4.20 since April 2012. Most of the time, a predictable range of 3.80 - 4.10.

By the way, something encouraging about AAX - it went down to 0.81 earlier but has since recovered. This is good because it shows strong support at that level. Has it finally found its bottom? I don't know but it's something to note.

@taugeh REITS or whatever are "good". But from our experiences, it goes to show how "the trend" is the overriding factor when it comes to the possibility of making profits and reducing losses, right? Especially when one doesn't wish to stay glued to the trading screen most of the time. Investors would have done well had they gone into the better oil & gas counters from mid-2012 onwards - just buy and then wait, checking the price only once a day. SKPetro, Perdana, Petra, Perisai, Uzma, Dayang etc. ... heck, even previous losers like TH Heavy aka Ramunia (I got in at rights price but sold way too early). I'm watching the plantations sector for signs - they have corrected and are more attractive than 2012. When the big institutions start to move back to plantations, we'd want to be in for the ride.

@taugeh Thanks for the very kind words. Have to say that I learned from you too. In fact, there was one very important moment which showed how critical it is to pay attention to the trend rather than anything else. If I'm not wrong, you had favoured UEM Land (now UEMS) but I hesitated. The reason? "Because it had already gone up". That was one of the fundamental reasons which had prevented me profiting consistently from trades. I always wanted to come in at the ground floor "to maximise gain". Big mistake - UEM Land was on an uptrend and went up and up. This happened again and again. I was holding on to losers/non-performances (like TM, Digi, Mudajaya, MRCB, YTL Power, Boustead etc.) when oil and gas counters were clearly on an uptrend.

As with you, I have to do some recovering too. I've had failures but then there were successes too. Have to be honest with ourselves and really learn from the mistakes. And to scrutinise the successes - were these due to some system (which could later be repeated) or just good luck?

@Wendy Low That makes sense. Unfortunately, we are dealing with various people here (institutional investors could be considered as people too since there's always someone who's doing the buying and selling in the organization). We just don't know how they will respond. I've stopped trying to anticipate what other people are going to do - it's just impossible. The best, for me, is to go with the flow. Profit potential wouldn't be as much as "Buy low, sell high" (if you do manage to get that right) but "some profit" is good enough. Much better than having capital stuck in a counter, because selling would mean a realised loss. Repeat "some profit" consistently and one will see an improved account over time. This is all that matters.

By the way, if today's upswing with AirAsia doesn't stick, and if falls back below a certain level, I'll cut out of this trade. That means the breakout is false. No ifs or buts. Even if that means a loss (will be small). No "Let's wait and see what happens. Give it another couple of weeks..." I'll study why my interpretation was not right and how to avoid it in the future. Then move on to the next trade with another counter that fulfills certain criteria (especially if Alex Lu also writes positively about it).

Most of the time, I'm a trader, not an investor. And I mix ordinary shares with call warrants, the latter giving more bang for the buck. But warrants are a two-edged sword, of course - you'll lose more, percentage-wise, when in a wrong trade. As I had mentioned to a few guys here, I'm only now just re-entering the market again. Had sold most of my portfolio just after the general elections. That was too early and I failed to maximise the profits as a result. I'm spending more time following and observing, and will now only buy when I'm reasonably sure something has just gotten off a bottom and may be on an uptrend (Digi earlier in the month, and today AirAsia. Had already sold Digi.). I follow Alex Lu's "NextTrade" blog for ideas - he's more often right than wrong. Plus what some of the people here think.

I fell in love with a few counters in the past, like Mudajaya. It hasn't gone anywhere:-( But at least it didn't slide. Not so with TM - I should have sold and cut losses when it was going down early last year. But didn't, comforting myself that "it will go up". That resulted in a bigger loss. I can't empgasise this enough: "The Trend" - this is all that really matters. Not TP. Not PE. Not DY. Not NTA. Not Management... Not saying these aren't important. But, if making profits (and minimising losses) is one's main goal, first and foremost, don't ever go against the current trend.

Some painful lessons I've learned from investing/speculating in the stockmarket: #1 - Don't fall in love with any company. It's profits we're after (which comes together with minimising losses). Promoting and being cheerleaders for company doesn't help with our trading account balance.

#2 - "Good" or "bad" companies are often just a matter of an individual's perception and interpretation. One analyst may say AAX (or whatever) is a good investment. But I'm pretty sure I can find another analysts who will say it's not. So who is `right' or `wrong'? We wouldn't know for sure until months or years later.

#3 (Most Important) - I've realised that the most crucial factor to consider before buying anything is a counter's current price trend. Buy a GREAT company that is on a downtrend and one will suffer months and probably years of pain, waiting for it to go up again. Buy a STUPID or mediocre company that's on an uptrend and we'll make a profit regardless of its business performance. Making a profit is much, much more important than supporting ANY company.

#4 "Buy low, sell high" - easier said than done. Trying to catch a bottom is a dangerous game. Great when we're successful and we'll feel very proud of ourselves. Feel `clever', and `intuitive' too. But was it just luck or did we really make the buying decision based on something? If it's the latter, then good - it can likely be repeated in the future. Buying higher than the bottom is okay - more expensive price may mean lesser future profit, true. But it's better to ride on a positive trend than to see "cheap" becoming "cheaper". Ask the people here and they will attest to this; of buying something "because it looks so attractive/cheap"... and then seeing it sliding further still.

"Making a profit" MUST be our goal at all times. Not "Backing a good company".

This is one of the oil & gas counters that hasn't really gone up yet. 2.00 seems to be such a solid barrier.

Watch TM. It has been quiet for months, getting no attention from most people. But it has been going up quietly, bit by bit.

Some SW punters were on to something - they were buying C8 at 0.05, and not queuing for 0.045 even when the mother wasn't moving. Still some distance away from the ex. price but now there's hope.

The previously anticipated results are not having much effect on the price either way. Investors aren't shocked or thrilled about anything. Looks like AA is "rightly priced", with the just-announced results already being factored in over the past weeks. It's stuck in the 2.20-2.40 range - much too narrow for traders to be interested in. AA needs to convincingly break past this resistance first. Looks like I'll have to look elsewhere for the time being - no rush to punt its call warrants just yet.

Darn, am wrong with my prediction that AA would go up this morning. But it's still a bit early to say. There's certainly no sell-off as with AAX. Now @greatdreamer tells us about the dividend thing. This is a factor. The market appears confused.

@Hjey As a trader, I don't mind AA buying back its shares and helping to support the price. But is that good for AA in the longer term? Paring down the loans and reducing borrowing costs would indeed help with the profit margin in the future. This would make sense with a capital-intensive business like an airline. Taking heavy loans for equipment is justified - the company simply must have these. But since it now has excess cash (presumably so, since it can afford to buy back shares), this is the time to make itself leaner. Share buyback makes more sense with companies that are cash-rich and with low gearing. AA hardly qualifies as this.

I'm wondering why Tony Fernandes had decided on this? Sure, AA will be able to keep more of the dividends from these shares. But this is only valid when there are dividends (none this time). Or maybe AA is withholding the intended dividend until it obtains those 10% shares first...and then declare something generous? That means shortchanging the present shareholders. TF and the major shareholders would be keen to see AA's price go up - it's in their interest since they can use this as collateral for other business ventures.

But no point in me thinking too much about AA's balance sheet. I'm more concerned about mine:-) I believe the market will respond favourably to this...that investors had already factored in the lower profits, plus aren't too disappointed with the no dividend.

I'd say the results are "fair...moving towards good". (1) The profit may be smaller but this is still respectable. (2) The 10% share buyback is positive for the counter's price. But business-wise, some people will argue against this. Capital should be put to more productive use. (3) Investors may be disappointed there's no dividend. But I doubt they'd sell just because of this. Not at this rather low price. I'm predicting the market will respond favorably tomorrow.

@zack_liza That huge volume must be noted. It's something like the early days when it was first listed. I wonder which institutions these are and how many shares they have left. If they are selling at a loss, that means they no longer consider AAX's prospects as bright. If not, they would hold on for another quarter or so. But the positive side is that "someone else" had bought these shares. This counter needs to be purged of weak and hesitant holders first. This will happen but it takes time.

I agree with @cockroach. What we think as "good management" wouldn't do us any good if the share's price keeps going down. It's what the market says at any given moment that's the most important. Deleum, for instance - nobody talks about its management, whether it's good or bad. But it has gone up and up over the past couple of years. As with most of the oil & gas counters. Momentum and trend are more important. Of course this might change in the future but for the moment AAX doesn't have it. Better not to have our capital getting locked in it.

@pirate99 Yup, long time. Went out way too early last year, and then watched the oil & gas sectors going up and up. But there are always chances in the stock market.

@Hustle Kaunter apa-apa pun, semua macam belut. Tak ada kepastian. Kena guna Law of Probability & "tumpang semangkuk" bila nampak macam uptrend. Lain lah kalau betul-betul nak invest, boleh tunggu.

Looks like you will get the 0.26 selling price. Congratulations!:-)

@trioloo86 Wow, you are really bold. Good luck! I don't dare to try catch the bottom in the hope of a rebound anymore. There have been successes, and satisfying profits, in the past. But there were failures too. Now I've changed strategy - jumping in only when something is going up.

Looks like its put warrant -HA has value. Ex. Price 0.35; Expiry 10/11/14. Now at 0.15.

The lowest-priced call warrants are CR, CS and CV.
CR 0.30; Expiry 22/7/14
CS 0.31; 29/8/14
CV 0.32; 19/1/15

Would be crazy to buy now when we don't know where the bottom is. But it may be worth our while to keep tabs on developments. MAS has been known to see sudden interest based on news and providing opportunities for traders and punters to make good gains from the call warrants. For the time being, however, it's better to just stay at the sidelines.

Based on the volume today, it's obvious some institutional investors aren't pleased with AAX's performance and its immediate prospects. True, things might turn better in the future, business-wise. But I'm more concerned with what the market thinks, and it's negative at the moment. It will take some time before the gloomy and pessimistic sentiments change. The most immediate matter is to see it having a strong support level first. The longer it stays below 1.00, the more difficult it will be to get past this resistance and return to IPO price. It's going to be a long wait.

@jester I'm trying to learn from previous mistakes (and successes) so that I'll be more consistent. Especially with the SWs which, as you know, offer the most bang for the buck. But at the same time, buy into the wrong trade and we'd get mauled. One of the most important lessons is this: "the trend". It doesn't really matter how good or bad a company and its management is. Making profits and avoiding losses - or, maximising profits and minimising losses - must be our priority at all times. Don't get emotional with these counters. We may like something but we'll have to be cold and calculative when buying its shares or warrants. "Opportunistic" - this isn't a bad thing when it concerns protecting and growing *our* money:-)

This is just one approach, of course. May or may not be the best but when in doubt, and to sleep better at night, it's better to be prudent. Having some sort of a hedging strategy helps to limit our potential and real losses. Might result in less profit, of course. But it's better to have "some profit" (even if it's not "maximum profit") than to make big losses.

One of the biggest success using this hedging strategy was with SKPetro, during the early days after the Sapura-Kencana merger in mid-2012. Most people agreed it's a great company with a lot of potential. The adjusted price of the new entity was 2.20. But it was listed at "a wrong time". The price continued to slide, and even went below 2.00. No one knows how low it would go. So what to do here? Buy, but cautiously. At 1.97 or so, use one-third of the capital. The logic is this: if it goes down further, we'd still have two-third of the intended capital and can consider buying more at a lower price (must be significantly lower than 1.97). The important thing is that we still have the cash.

"But what if it goes up after that?" Well, that's a good thing, isn't it?...because we'd make a profit from the one-third of capital used. We also have the option of using the remaining capital to buy more, albeit at a higher price. Of course, in retrospect, putting in all the money at 1.97 would have brought in more profits. But how do we know it would not have gone lower? We don't. We can try to catch the bottom but it's prudent not to put in everything at once... no matter how `cheap' we feel the price is. And it's always better to buy something that's on an uptrend despite the higher price. As it turned out, buying SKPetro at 1.97 (one-third of intended capital when it was going down); 2.20 (one-third, when it was going up) and 2.50 (one-third, when still going up) gave very good profits while lessening the risks.

@Dorky Smart analysis. #2 looks to be a good option. When something is on an uptrend, that's the time to jump in. I can offer a variation to #2 - one can also hedge by selling half while keeping the other. If the results are good, the remaining shares will still bring in the profits. You also have the capital to buy again albeit at a higher price (but it's okay because the price is going up). If the results are bad, your loss has been limited having already sold half.

Thought it had stabilised 10 days ago at around 0.96. I was dead wrong. Fortunately I was just watching, trying to see whether there might be a chance with its SWs. Sharp fall, big volume - looks like it's still trying to find its bottom wherever that might be.

Not much potential with its SWs now. Only two offer some sort of a remote chance:
CA: 0.95 But expiry is 23/5/14
CJ: 1.00 Expiry 15/12/14

The others look very bleak.

Very promising session yesterday...immediately followed by a disappointing one today. But things might change in the afternoon. Sime has shown this before. I wouldn't be surprised if it manages to close unchanged. 12 sen is nothing for a counter like this.

@Airo Chasz You got in at a very good price... 0.025. Now you have a nice buffer. This one definitely has a fighting chance even though Sime is still rather quiet.

@bonescythe With me, it's "The Trend" that's the most important. "Buy low, sell high" - yes, if only we know what the "low" is. In so many cases, "low" has become "lower". After getting burnt a few times, I now look at the trend. If it looks to be on an uptrend, the possibility of making a profit is much greater than in trying the bottom-feeding method.

@kenken85 "u dont see d sellerr. but the price keep going down.."<--- This is why it's a gamble to try catch the bottom. Today, there were times when it looked like the sellers were done with their selling; buyers started to increase at the bidding levels... and suddenly the invisible sellers would just give them what they wanted. We don't know how many lots each of these institutional investors want to unload.

If you're lucky, you might catch the bottom, i.e. the price would then rebound and giving very satisfying profits. But it's very risky because no one is sure whether the bottom has been reached. If you really feel it's "a good long-term investment", why not wait a bit for things to become clearer first? The price may be higher than "the bottom" but at least you are reasonably sure it won't slide further.

With SWs, it's mostly about "time". I don't have any doubts about Kulim hitting 3.80, and more. But within a week... extremely tight.

If one simply jumps in, then yes, it's gambling. But the same goes for ordinary shares. Warrants or shares - these are "calculated risks".

@koyak71 That's how it goes with SWs. I've even lost 100% of the capital in a few counters before. Hopefully I've learned some crucial lessons so that I'll be more consistent. Once you start with SWs, it's difficult to accept the potential profit margins from ordinary shares anymore. Yeah, the risks with SWs are much much higher. But so too are the potential profits. Investors of ordinary shares are already elated with 20% profits. SW speculators look at a minimum of 30%. Sometimes, 500% is possible too. Capital management is the key - there *will* be losses but try to minimise these while trying to maximise the good calls.

There's another `exciting' SW to consider (but will be difficult to sleep at night Heheh!) - Sime-CW. Ex. Price 9.40; Expiry 30/5/14. Sime is still sleeping but if interest in plantations continue, it's not too difficult for this kind of counter to exceed this ex. price. Three months to expiry is reasonable.

This is today's biggest story. I don't know about its business prospects because I haven't been following this counter (hesitated to jump in when it was at 3.00 at the end of 2012...and then saw it going up and up). But be cautious, guys - the technical charts don't look good. A couple of negatives here: (1) the previous support floor of 5.25 or so didn't hold so that means it is searching for a bottom. If it doesn't move up tomorrow, the slide will likely prolong. (2) a drop in price accompanied with a big volume isn't a good thing. Tomorrow will see whether the 4.50 support holds. If it does, then Pos will build a new base around this level. If it doesn't, there will likely be more selling pressure in the coming days.

If they expect prices to go up, they should create more put warrants. This way, they will always make money because these put warrants will be dead for punters at the expiry dates:-) Now, in this kind of market, many of these call warrants tend to be in the money - I wonder how much the IBs lost with SKPetro alone since CA, CB etc. (which have already expired) when all expired way higher than their ex. prices. Come on lah, investment banks - come up with some reasonable put warrants for the current high fliers. This is the only convenient way for us to short.

@member41 Yeah, put warrants are really lacking in BSKL. Only a few counters have put warrants and most of these are very unattractive. It's like the investment banks that issued them are "tak ikhlas", with the ex. price stacked against the investor/speculator. The prices are simply too low and unlikely to be reached. Only one or two offer a chance... like SKPetro-HA; 3.80; 24/10/14. It would take a market crash to be in the money with most of the other put warrants. I hope the IBs would offer more and fairer put warrants to punters.