One thing I've observed about the stockmarket - the NTA isn't too useful for *traders*. MK Land for instance...it's trading at well below its NTA. Momentum is everything. Getting in and out at the right time - if only we can improve on this. Anyway with MRCB, it seems that the TA charts are reliable most of the time with this particular counter. It's popular with speculators, and if they are in, it will go up and up. Of course the opposite will also be true as seen over the past few months.

I wouldn't be worried about this one. In fact, this is the classic "Buy on dips" counter - its health business especially is very stable and a cash cow for as long as it holds the contract.

Very encouraging performance over the past few trading sessions.

Has this donkey found its bottom and is finally starting to go on an uptrend?

@kcchongnz, I don't have too many CWs or even ordinary shares right now due to this GE Factor thing discouraging me from being more committed. But I did buy a few positions just in case the market springs a surprise and I don't want to go chasing them. The best is AirAsia-CY - didn't expect the mother to go this much in one day. But it did. Gamuda-CX - I actually managed to `makan' this one three times Heheh! MRCB-CN Bought at 0.01, still holding because I'm expecting something to happen. TM-CU average at 0.03 - this one still has seven month left to expiry so one can reasonably expect something to happen in between then. But I have one real loser in my portfolio: Apple-C6. Bought this donkey at 0.04 and it's now 0.005.

For institutions, when a company gives this kind of dividend, they HAVE to buy... especially if they had sold earlier. No signs yet of them coming in like yesterday - maybe they don't want the price to go up too high (and thereby having to pay more). But once the upward momentum starts, TM - like the other telco counters - will go up and up. This is one of those counters which you simply must have regardless of the GE Factor or whatever.

That's great! Hopefully it will go on an upswing and move towards 6.00 again. If it does, there should be enough momentum to make some profit from the warrants... -CU especially.

Congrats to the patient AirAsia investors and warrants kaki, especially those who had bought when it was around 2.60 and waited. This is a good counter for traders with a wide-enough price movement range to make money from. It might consolidate a bit in the next few days but I believe it's now on an uptrend, Malindo or no Malindo.

A promising start but the rally petered out. Investors are cautious due to the GE and it will need the big boys to come in for this counter to really swing up. Will have to wait a while yet before this one turns in a better profit.

It's not just property counters that are undervalued but also construction. They are significantly lagging behind telcos and the oil & gas counters although both of these have come down a bit of late. UOA Development is one counter I'm watching. It has stalled within a tight range at the moment but I believe its time will come again in the near future.

@BC475654, Yeah, that GE matter might be a dampener and people will be cautious. On the other hand, it's also an opportunity. I have a list of counters that I'm watching and hoping will become cheap enough in the knee-jerk response to the GE announcement: These include MRCB, UEM Land, Gamuda, MMC etc. But I suspect the drop won't be too sharp. That's because people already anticipate the announcement - it's not as if they will be "surprised" or "shocked".

The more important angle is in what investors think the GE outcome will be. If they think BN will turn in a poor performance, this will be reflected by the market - from the GE announcement and during the campaigning period, it will probably slide. In such a situation, it might be better to stay at the sidelines. However, if they think BN will put up a better performance than in 2008, we will see these counters going up during the campaigning period. Investors will be jumping the gun and buy in anticipation of a post-GE rally. If we read it right, there's money to be made from this "GE Factor".

The slide over the past couple of months or so was explained by many as due to "General Elections uncertainties and concerns over the outcome" since MRCB is perceived to be a politically-connected company. This makes sense.

But as mentioned by @anbz, many didn't look beyond that and consider what the big fish might be doing to its price. The general opinion was that "investors and funds were selling ahead of the GE", and inferring that they did so because they are worried about the outcome and the effect on MRCB.

But if you'd look at its historical price, something is just not quite right. For one thing, the severity of the slide: the `normal' range was 1.60-1.75... at worse, it might be at 1.50. But it had gone well below that - to just 1.20-something! Every time a technical rebound looked imminent, and when it looked to be on the way up again, the counter gets pulled down. Again and again until traders no longer dared to buy no matter how attractive it looked. Clearly, some parties wanted the price to be low.

Tabung Haji, for instance: it was one of the sellers in late January. This contributed to the slide, of course, and you would have thought that it wanted to pare down its holdings. But early this month, it then bought almost three times what it had sold earlier. Why? One reason may be TH was doing someone a favour by helping to hold down the price. But it knows what the game is (i.e. the Gapurna deal) and having done that, it wants to benefit too, of course. So it bought at the lower prices.

Now the big players have gotten what they want: (1) MRCB gets the land which will be the impetus for future developments (2) Gapurna gets into MRCB by paying a more reasonable price for it i.e. 1.55 instead of anything in between the usual 1.60-1.75. It can increase its 17% stake in the future if it exercises its warrants. I feel the ex. price of 2.30 is fair to everyone - Gapurna won't the extra shares as cheaply as the first 17%. (3) Minority shareholders will get the free warrants too. They also can look forward to MRCB having a big, new project after KL Sentral is completed.

Remember that there are more goodies in the pipeline: the government has yet to decide on how much to compensate it for the EDL in JB. At the very least, the price must be "fair" - MRCB fulfilled its part of the bargain in completing the expressway. But the government, in wanting to be popular, didn't - MRCB couldn't collect toll as was previously agreed. Okay, fine, but MRCB must be adequately compensated for this.

Don't forget the RRI land in Sg. Buloh, which has gotten off the radar the past few months. Whatever some people might say, MRCB will likely be given a big share due to this fact: EPF owns 40% of it and practically every one of us has a stake in EPF. That makes it easier and more justifiable for the government to bring MRCB in as compared with most other companies. Or would we rather have it bring in a private company where only a select few cronies would profit from the land's development?

Tomorrow and the coming days will be interesting. Despite the GE Factor, I think MRCB's price will recover. It has been grossly oversold, and with this new impetus, the only way looks to be up. By how much remains to be seen. My guess is a conservative "above 1.40" from tomorrow.

From The Star's Biz Week today: "MRCB signs deal worth RM729mil with Gapurna’s Salim" http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/2/9/business/12692874&sec=business
The journalist has done the job for us where this item is much easier to understand than in reading the announcement to BSKL.

Another important point concerns the to-be-issued-warrants which most likely will be termed as "MRCB-WA": the ex. price is 2.30. Anyway, the investment banks will likely come up with their analysis in the coming days. There might also be a re-rating of MRCB since this deal is indeed significant.

The only dampener is of course the GE Factor. However, I feel the risks have already been factored in and that the bottom has been reached. This deal should boost MRCB's outlook for the future, and we're not considering how much it will benefit from the Sg. Buloh RRI land yet. Despite the looming GE, I feel MRCB will start moving up to a more reasonable level. 1.26 - this is simply too low. Most likely the slide was purposely brought about by the interested parties who wanted the Gapurna deal to go through. Now it should make up the lost ground.

After weeks of pain, things now look more promising for the MRCB investors and speculators. But don't be too exuberant though. Let's see first what the IB analysts think and, more importantly, how the market reacts next week.

Here's the link to the announcement: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/anpth/885699.jsp
I'm still trying to digest this, and especially the implications and possible response from the market. After all, what the market thinks matters the most to us investors and traders. Investors will surely have more than enough time to analyse given the long holidays.

But my first thoughts are - at the very least, it will serve as an impetus to reverse the slide. If you'd look at the 26/11 item from The Edge, the Gapurna deal, which is beneficial to MRCB, was held back due to the price of the latter's price then which was regarded by Gapurna as "high". But the slide to below 1.30 helps Gapurna in getting what it wants. Most likely "interested parties" had been pushing MRCB's price down to help create the desired situation and get the deal through.

Among other things, the "free warrants" of 1-for-3 for existing shareholders... and we all know how investors love "free". MRCB's share is valued at 1.55, which is a significant distance away from the present 1.26. We'll have to see whether it goes up near this next week... or even possibly exceed it. Or it might not go anywhere. Your guess is as good as mine. But if it does go up, my -CN warrants will too:-) So apt too: "CN" = Chinese New (Year)

@BC475654, That's the problem - I don't know whether the deal is "good" or "bad" for MRCB:-) Will have to see what the market thinks>

I certainly hope so, Tony. I'm also eyeing Bursa-CZ again and hope to get a good buying price. But all these will have to be after CNY. I've gotten into a few positions from bottom fishing, hoping some sort of a rebound would bring in profits. But these are just small positions - am waiting to see how the market responds when the GE is finally announced.

By the way, Happy Chinese New Year to you and everyone here! Here's hoping to a good year ahead.

@limahcai, I wrote something about its CWs a week or so ago. Try reading those. But note that it's just my opinion and evaluation... and I have been wrong so many times before. But generally, CWs are a game of momentum. When there's excitement about the mother, the CWs will go up much higher percentage-wise. As always, it's a question of timing. But with CN, I had decided to take a risk and jump the gun; buying when it was going down. Some punters prefer the other way i.e. wait for it to go up first before jumping in.

It will depend on how much the MRCB shares will be valued at. Was this the reason for the slide?... that some interested party wanted MRCB's shares to be valued as low as possible for this deal? Wondering how the market will respond to the announcement - if it's positive, then my going for broke with the warrants will pay off. If not... well, that's how it goes with punting CWs.

The counters perceived to be politically-linked like MRCB, UEM Land and Gamuda especially will likely be affected by the outcome of the GE. But I don't see why there should be similar worries for counters like Digi, Axiata, Maxis, TM and the likes. However, in a knee-jerk response, they will probably suffer a drop too in reaction to the general market. I feel this will provide a good opportunity for us.

@yfchong - do that... scout around for good counters, do some research of the fundamentals, previous technical readings and decide when you would feel comfortable buying. It appears that the GE Factor is the only thing that's holding down the market at the moment. When this is out of the equation, the buyers will return. I'd like to be there waiting with counters previously bought cheaply when they come. At the moment, we must be cautious BUT we must also be brave enough to pick up the quality counters selectively when opportunities present themselves.

Reading related books... yes, they do help. But it's the baptism of fire, that is in doing the practical of trading and investing, that will be the real teachers. However, our selves must also be right in that we must learn from both profitable and losing trades. The losing trades especially, which are expensive lessons. But if we learn from these, they will definitely help in future investments. No matter how long one has been in the market, there's always something to learn.

For me, among the lessons learned during the past month or so:
1) when prices of some quality counters go down to a certain level, I have to buy regardless of the general gloom and pessimism ... BUT

2) use only one-third or at most half of the capital allocated for a specific counter. Should things not work out my way immediately, I still have two-third or half of the capital left. This provides the option of either averaging down or wait or buy something else. Should the counter go up immediately, there will also be choices in either taking the profit or averaging up by buying more.

3) at times, it might be better to do nothing - neither buying nor selling. And this one is the most difficult of all.

This "GE Factor" - there will be opportunities here. The widely held belief is that the market will fall when it is announced. Possibly. But why shouldn't it rebound after that, if there's clarity on the political situation to follow? And this announcement of the GE - everyone knows it will come and very soon so why should the market suffer a sharp drop when it does happen? I'm waiting for this day to come and see how the market responds. If the quality counters come down to a very attractive level, that looks like a good time to buy.

Is the technical rebound here? The market started very weak earlier but many counters have managed to claw back most of today's losses. Let's see how the afternoon session goes.

18.5 sen! Excellent. Too bad I don't have it.

AK $$, this is one of those CWs which I've not followed. CT: the info I have with me is most likely a bit outdated (yesterday's The Edge - haven't bought today's copy):
Ex. 15.60, Expiry 30/8/13

This one is in the money and with six months left. That means it's a cheaper alternative than buying the mother... if one feels Public Bank is going up. It looks like a `safe' CW (for the moment at least). But I don't really follow the Finance counters, with the exception of MBSB, Bank Islam and OSK on occasions, so I can't say anything more about it except for the above unfortunately.

This will be very risky but I'm going for broke with the CN. Adding more at 0.01 and betting something positive will happen before its expiry at the end of May. If that doesn't happen, well... The possible loss in percentage terms will be big but money-wise it won't wipe me out. Never put in capital that you can't afford to lose. Have to manage the risks and capital properly when it comes to CWs.

Darn, bought it too early... as usual. Fortunately, had been cautious yesterday and bought only half of the planned capital for this one. Now, have to decide whether I'm going to use the other half to buy at 0.03 or wait.

I don't have this one (yet) but I'm surprised to see the price dropping this much over the past few trading sessions. Had felt 0.10 was a strong support considering it's in the money:
Ex. Price 2.50; Ratio 3:1; Expiry 31/7/13

HwangDBS' TP today is 3.56 which says something about its potential. The mother closed at 2.57 today which is just a 1 sen loss. But some punters managed to get the CR at as low as 0.075 today. Looks tempting. Going to watch this one closely.

Might not be a good time to buy with the market like this. But can't help myself with this one. CU actually came back to 0.035! There's more than 7 months left to expiry so I'm in. Now comes the wait and hope institutional buyers will come in for the mother again.

Going lower still. Might be foolhardy but I'm in with the CN at 0.015. If there's a rebound, there will be a 100% profit. If the slide continues, and when time starts to run out, will have to take a 50% loss. Risky, but that's how it goes with a high leverage CW.

Yup, really have to salute these people for their steel nerves. Never expected MBf to go up to this level after already having done so some months ago.

Oh, the SC "will investigate" and threaten "to take firm action"... and then quietly let it pass. It was the same with Malaysian Insider's `news' about Sime having to make a GO for E&O; pushing the mother and CWs up and then trapping those who bought.

Wasn't aware of the new PChem CW. In fact I wasn't even following CP on my trading screen's folder. Have now added these. It would be a good strategy to have it since the mother is followed by many fund managers. We the small fish should try hitch a ride through the CWs and profit when these big fellows come in.

@necro, Despite the slide and not knowing where the bottom is, I think I'm going to jump the gun with MRCB-CN and enter a "Good To Date" of 0.015. At this price level, a half sen move either way might be difficult considering the percentage involved. If the mother were to rebound before I get it at that price, I'll probably give in to the seller's 0.02. I'm also going to enter a GTD for TM-CU at 0.035. This one has a long expiry date so there's the luxury of waiting. As with MRCB, should TM rebound, I'll rush in at 0.04. But these will be cautious buying i.e. not too many lots.

PChem-CO: I hesitated last Thursday when 1,000 lots were offered at 0.02. The mother looks promising today. If the rebound continues tomorrow, that other guy who snapped them up (was it you??) will possibly be able to sell at 0.04 and make 100% profit.

Heavy selling towards the end of the trading session. No one knows what the support is. Technically it is now grossly oversold so there might be a mild technical rebound in the near future. Traders wouldn't dare to buy with the counter behaving like this. Have to see who the sellers are - is it EPF?

Okay, will do... at your own risk. I'm looking at CN and wondering if it might be a good punt. Ex. price of 1.60 looks more than achievable because that was the low end of its previous `normal' range of 1.60-1.75 in 2012. Reach that and the 0.02 now should easily be 0.05. Expiry at the end of May is also reasonable. CO and CP may be better with their longer expiry dates. But the market maker doesn't look serious about selling CP though.

@berid, busy counting your loot from the MISC-CN killing?:-) This is every warrant kaki's dream, that is in getting *that* counter which `meletup'. Ever since I started with CWs eight months ago, I still haven't gotten the killer CW yet. One slipped by, SKPetro-CA - bought at 0.06 and sold much too early. This one would have brought in 400%!

Now I'm looking at MRCB to be one of the killer counters. Sure doesn't look like it right now. In fact, the probability of it sliding further is greater than it going up any time soon. But I'm going to bet on the GLC/politically-linked counters having their day. The question is "When". Don't want to jump in yet though. Will have to watch these counters for indications. If they rebound and rally, and if one has their CWs, 100% and above profits are more than possible.

Mah Sing: I see one of its projects at the Jln. Sg. Buloh-Subang Airport junction every day on the way to my wife's office - Star Avenue. This project is a big risk although I'm sure the people at Mah Sing know what they're doing. There's potential for this area what with the RRI land and all. Mah Sing are the early starters here and they will be very well positioned when the area develops. But that's all in the future and they'll need a lot of cash to stay in the game.

Dialog-CL... this one didn't work out for me. Went in at 0.015 when the mother was at 2.42 or so. I think the decision to take the risk was reasonable since an upswing should have taken it towards and then past the ex. price. It didn't materialise. Instead, the potential upswing petered out and Dialog has been sliding ever since. Decided to cut loss at 0.01. Big percentage loss but ringgit-wise it's tolerable since I didn't have too many lots. Time is running out and the CL looks to be a dead duck... unless if some positive news comes out real soon to push up the mother.

At the rate things are going for MRCB, you might well get it. That's the problem with prices: when the charts are broken - and for MRCB, it *is* broken after the one-year support at 1.52 didn't hold - you don't know how low it will go. Your range of 1.29-1.34 is as good as anyone's guess. Would take a really bold trader to buy at the moment where common wisdom says "Not yet". But I've seen things happen before, that is you simply don't know what will happen until it happens. Either way. But as mentioned previously, even though it looks hopeless at the moment, this is a counter worth watching.

I think tomorrow is a holiday(?) Hari Wilayah and BSKL is closed. That means another long weekend. We'll see how it goes next week. But you could be right. With the market like this, fundamentals are immaterial at the moment. Only the speculators-fuelled counters would see action, including GPRO.

For the warrants kaki: -CL, 2.10, 28/2/13, 3:1 - this one is definitely out for me even at 0.005. You'd need a miracle to strike, which is why you now can't find a buyer.

CM 1.90, 2/4/13, 3:1 - A longshot at 0.01 now. If there's an upswing and momentum, one *might* be able to sell at 0.02 for a 100% profit. But it's too risky for me with just two months left. If it's 0.005, then "maybe".

CN 1.60, 31/5/13, 2.5:1 - This one looks better. Now at 0.02. A bit tight with three months left. But the General Elections should be over by then. Ex. price looks achievable if past records are to go by. If there's momentum, then a 100% profit is more than possible. But if the slide continues, the punter will likely lose 50% i.e. if he cuts loss and sells at 0.01. I'm keeping this in mind if there are indications of an upward movement in the mother.

CO 1.78, 23/9/13, 1.78:1 - Comfortable expiry date. Seller wants 0.055 which I think is a bit expensive considering the current circumstances. No volume but this will follow when the mother recovers. No need to hurry though with MRCB still in the doldrums.

CP 1.70, 17/1/14, 3:1 - I like these, especially the expiry. Good, cheaper alternative than having your capital stuck in the mother. But the market maker doesn't look very serious, offering only small lots... from 0.055 to 0.075, only 100 small lots (x 100 units) for each. So the average price for 500 lots would be 0.065. They will have to make a better offer.

If one uses TA for investment/trading decisions, and if he were to buy MRCB now, he should be shot by a firing squad made up of technical analysts. If one uses FA, the buying time is also "not now" due to the GE Factor. But if one is an opportunistic cowboy with a bit of the gambler's traits, he would keep an eye on this...

MRCB has been beaten down rather bad the past couple of months sliding bit by bit. No one know where the support is. But don't count it out just yet despite its current gloomy situation. If you had followed this counter, you'd know that it's one that attracts traders who will chase it up. This is where the TA charts come in. From previous experience, it tends to perform according to what the charts show and predict. The Moving Average especially - if the blue line points up and intersects, it's worth a bet. Now isn't the time to buy yet definitely. But don't forget to also watch the technical readings.

If one can get back his 0.005 and just lose the brokerage fees, then it's definitely okay. But I'm worried you might not even be able to find a buyer. Ex. Price at 3.40 - not impossible but looks extremely tough. You'll have to bet on a sustained rally which creates attention towards AA. If it moves towards 3.00, some punter might be willing to take over at 0.01 and giving you a 100% profit. If nothing exciting happens with AA, then the punter will get trapped and lose all his capital here.

I think CY might be a better bet: Ex. 2.85; expiry 31/10/13, ratio 4:1. We need some time with this one.

I agree with KC Loh. Looks very tempting if you compare it with its previous high. But it's on a downtrend, which is obvious even without looking at the technical charts. Maybe it's better to wait until a solid support base is formed first. It's better to buy when something is going up even though the price might be more expensive than to buy cheap and then seeing it go lower.

Same with me too. But I'm going to stick with it because I believe it *will* go past 3.00 although it won't be in the near future. Will put my money where my mouth is, but "cheaply" - its call warrants. Am looking at CM: Ex. 2.70; 31/10/13; Ratio 3:1. However, will see how the general market goes first. Confidence is rather fragile due to the GE Factor so it might be better to wait a bit more first. After that, I'm in.

Most other counters are lower but berid got a winner despite the shaky conditions. When you're on a roll, you're on a roll and the second trade is profitable too. Ride it, dude! I'm sticking with the ones that I'm more familiar with, like Gamuda-CX, Tenaga-CW. There might be a chance to come in again very soon. For the moment, I'm watching those that have reached their ex. prices or very close to. Not looking for much... 0.01-0.015 will do.

And the winner is... @berid!
No, I don't dare buy at this level. Certainly won't chase because there will be other buses in the near future. There always will be when it comes to the stock market. Berid can afford to play this one again because the profits from the last trade is more than enough to act as a safety margin:-)

MISC-CN laughing at all of us, the warrants kakis who froze last week. Even though the mother is down 4 sen, the CN is still going for 0.095. A 100%-profit trade sails away and we can only watch and salivate, guys HAHA!

@passerby, yes, was a teacher for 11 years in a few secondary schools in Kelantan until the mid-90's before leaving to work with the media industry. Even got transferred out twice to a rural or different-district school for being too loud in supporting the wrong party:-) The EC doesn't need to book the halls early. With its clout, it can just bulldoze through - previous bookings will be cancelled just like that.