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2015-08-26 14:15 | Report Abuse
It has been sliding over the past weeks but today's sharp drop is still a surprise. Some big investor is obviously unloading. Or maybe this is bank-related...forced selling of collateral for some loan.
Parkson is now selling at way off its NTA.
2015-08-26 13:16 | Report Abuse
This afternoon's session will be very important. Over the past few weeks, the sellers tend to appear during this time. Especially 4 pm onwards. So, if the selling is absorbed, and especially if AA manages to finish above 0.85, that would be very encouraging. Contra players will definitely take note of that.
2015-08-26 12:41 | Report Abuse
@Ckfoong67 11:31 That's a prudent strategy. I feel the same way too, i.e. the fall is more of sentiment than fundamental. While it's true that AA's previous quarter is discouraging, it's not "bad" by any means. Must remember that it turned in a profit, not loss.
However, we also have to acknowledge and take adequately consider this factor of sentiment. When it comes to share price, this is the decider. And right now it's decidely negative. Therefore, it's futile to go against the prevailing trend.
But at the same time, being contrarian will likely pay off... if one has the stamina to wait it out. I also intend to buy a few lots very soon - maybe one-third of the intended allocation. But must be reasonably convinced first, that 0.80 is indeed strong support.
2015-08-26 11:59 | Report Abuse
@Amit Khindriya Before this, Boustead had done well as compared to the other investment-grade counters. At least it wasn't giving heart attacks to its investors with unnerving falls. In fact, it had gone up last week. But looks like Amit may be right with his prediction of 3.60.
Boustead's dividends are good but the latest quarter report raises some concerns. Its EPS has undergone a significant reduction, which threatens future dividends.
But the fact remains that Boustead has many valuable assets. I'm hoping the price will become even more attractive. This is one of the counters that I hope to have in my long-term investment portfolio.
2015-08-26 11:28 | Report Abuse
If it's really Wellington that's doing the selling, then it wouldn't be wise to even think about buying yet. There wouldn't be much chance of any sort of technical rebound. Any small rise will see them dumping even more shares.
But why now instead of weeks ago when the AA price and ringgit were higher? I'm also wondering how much did Wellington pay for their shares on average. If they had held on all this while, it's puzzling as to why they'd want to offload at this time.
2015-08-26 11:22 | Report Abuse
@dragonofdark 9:37 Please alert us when this confirmation or whatever notable signal apears, okay? I've been itching to buy AA since a few weeks ago, but didn't dare to. Waiting for some indication that the heavy sustained selling is levelling off. Until this happens, it's too risky to buy yet despite the seemingly attractive price.
2015-08-25 16:28 | Report Abuse
I don't know why some of you are so emotional when it comes to counters. Either for or against. Have to admit it can also be entertaining and worth a few laughs :-) But remember why we're into this in the first place - to try make a profit. Failing which, to minimise our losses the best we can given the circumstances. All I care about is the price action - right now it says AA is 0.875 on heavy sell volume. Tony Fernandes, Kamarudin, Bill Gates etc. -- they aren't important. The price is.
2015-08-25 15:44 | Report Abuse
@rich_ Whatever happens, at least you and others who buy now can comfort yourselves that you've bought at a very reasonable price. Of course it may go lower but I'd fancy my chances for a profit when times get better for the O&G industry. When it does, counters like SKPetro will be way up there. This is among my top choices when I'm reasonably confident the massive selling is over.
2015-08-25 15:19 | Report Abuse
Watching, waiting every day... for the day when I'm reasonably confident it has hit the bottom and levelling out. I don't have too much care about its business. Some people say it's doing fine, others not so. And they have data and arguments to back their respective opinions. So who is right? It's one or the other, but we won't know until after the facts.
With a rather volatile popular counter like this, I feel the better strategy is to see what the technical charts say. What I do know about AA is that, when it goes on an upswing, I would want to be in. Too dangerous to try guess the bottom so I'll just wait and see for now.
2015-08-25 12:15 | Report Abuse
@KAQ4468 Tak apa... Call dengan Put warrants ni pakai main tembak aje. 50-50. Boleh pegang prinsip "Untung sabut..." Cuma kena cepat cut loss atau take profit mengikut keadaan.
2015-08-25 10:08 | Report Abuse
Releasing its quarter report on 28/8. Likely to be bad, but how bad? One thing about this counter though - all the bad news, pessimism appear to have been baked in. Always possible it'd go lower, of course. But in this condition, any sort of good news may get magnified.
It's like someone in ICU - the guy may still be stuck with tubes and with a deathly pall. But the fact that he now can speak already makes the doctors and family pleased. Everyone now knows about Mudajaya's litany of problems. But let's say it announces something good - a new contract somewhere. Doesn't have to be a huge one. And then another...and one power station is operational... The long slide might be nearing it's end.
2015-08-24 23:21 | Report Abuse
@taciturm - Do continue, and write what you know and think. It doesn't matter if anyone disagrees. The way I see it, genuine attempts are made to back the arguments. Really appreciate and respect your kind of comments. They add value to this thread.
2015-08-24 23:13 | Report Abuse
Oh, after reading again... I think he's got the right one. Or at least the one he wants. We misunderstood. Actually his question is... goes without saying lah. Of course will follow down Niagara too.
2015-08-24 23:10 | Report Abuse
Wrong warrant... but he might get lucky. Against most expectations, index rebounds. saschl has a narrow escape and the last laugh :-)
2015-08-21 17:14 | Report Abuse
Got very lucky with this one - buying out of emotions rather than anything else. But ringgit-wise, just a small paper profit because the purchase was small. Interesting development though to see Mudajaya suddenly recover a bit of the losses. Volume isn't big. We'll have to see how it goes next Monday. Would be great if contra players were to turn their attention to this counter.
2015-08-21 15:52 | Report Abuse
The investment bank analysts say "Buy", with a very attractive TP attached. Reasonable call. I will certainly want to have some AA shares in my portfolio. Regardless of what some doomsayers say about it. The critical question is timing - don't want to come in too early and having to suffer the heartache of watching it slipping lower.
Forcing myself to be patient despite the itchy fingers wanting to click on the Buy button. I've been burnt too many times trying to catch the bottom. Occasionally I'd get lucky where the counter immediately rebounds. But most of the time, it'd go down further before finally the slide is checked. With AA, I'll wait for it to at least be priced above the 20-day Moving Average first. Better chance of making a instead of having precious capital stuck.
2015-08-19 17:37 | Report Abuse
It was from reading the comments here by @Eric Fong etc. from some days ago that I started to become interested. Went to check on the technical charts of its previous price movements. There seems to be a pattern of up-down... it'd go from the low 0.30s and to around 0.50 or so. Then it would slide. Late last month, an uptrend had appeared. But this counter couldn't escape the depressed mood after foreign investors started with their heavy selling, and the price went down again. However, it's a good opportunity for new investors to come in.
One good thing about L&G is that it shouldn't be affected by what foreign investors do. True, there are some foreign investment funds among the Top 30 shareholders but their holdings aren't huge. And, as far as I know, they didn't sell.
Incidentally, the latest Annual Report came out a couple of days ago. That offered a great resource to assess this company. At this price level, I believe the risk of a slide is rather minimal. Not impossible (nothing is with the stock market), but I'd fancy my chances regardless of how the market may be right now. I agree with the assessment by Eric Fong and @Hoong Ling, among others, on the potentials. L&G is a risk worth taking.
2015-08-19 17:23 | Report Abuse
The encouraging this is, 0.09 seems to be solid support. It held during the slide a couple of months ago, and continued during this latest turmoil.
2015-08-19 15:40 | Report Abuse
Quite good performance since yesterday. Could this be the long awaited recovery?...or just a simple rebound. After all, it had gone down significantly over the past weeks. Have become very attractive. Those who had dared to buy at its recent bottom already have reasonable profits. Congratulations to them - it takes a lot of courage to buy when something kept dropping every day.
2015-08-18 14:58 | Report Abuse
Based on the previous annual reports, it looks like the company has recovered from the 1998 financial crisis. It used to be one of the most active counters in the late 80s, 90s. I remember the `normal' range was 2.00-plus at a time when the par value was 0.50. Famous as "Wan Azmi Hamzah's company". If I'm not mistaken, he was on Tengku Razaleigh's side during the Umno fight against Mahathir.
Anyway, there was talk about KLIA being located around that area. And we saw how companies like Talam jumped the gun with their massive developments at Bukit Beruntung. And then it was decided Sepang would be the spot. Many speculators got burnt.
Anyway, these are all in the past. It's now and the future that we're interested in. L&G looks to be in good hands - at least better than before. Property is a good business but only if the management executes thing well. So far, based on the performance, I'd say they are doing fine.
2015-08-18 14:05 | Report Abuse
@ramunia No, it works the other way. It's a call warrant - notice the "C" before 3...?
2015-08-18 13:48 | Report Abuse
@Eric Fong - Thanks for the explanation. The ICULS will expire in 2018. But a lot of it has been redeemed already.
The Education division's results are very good: RM5 million profit from RM13 million in revenue. I wonder what they are charging parents at the Sri Bestari school:-) Just a small contribution to the bottomline but any kind of profit is a good thing.
I'm starting to like this company. But I wonder what plans they have for the assets in the Lembah Beringin area. Sad to see all those nice, almost completed houses left just like that. The location may be a bit far from KL but still tolerable I guess...if you don't have to drive to KL every day. I had driven off the Lembah Beringin exit and taken the route to Kerling, past the sentry. If this is part of L&G's assets, then great.
2015-08-18 13:07 | Report Abuse
Oh, forgot to add - a 2 sen dividend.
2015-08-18 12:54 | Report Abuse
Annual Results announced today. Revenue is lower but profit is higher.
EPS at 0.12 is the same as last year. Quite decent actually.
But NTA has gone down from 0.76 to 0.58.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4830965
2015-08-18 11:43 | Report Abuse
Sentiments rule, not business fundamentals. Investors are concerned about the possibility of capital controls, so they sell even at low prices...just to free up their money.
2015-08-18 11:26 | Report Abuse
That was the report which had led to sudden interest and the share price going to 0.175 in one week. Great profits for those who came in early...at around the present price. Not so for those who bought when interest disappeared, almost as suddenly as it started.
But the essence of the report remains. The PN17 status is only due to technical reasons. And having a Khazanah unit on board is reassuring - it means the main shareholder cannot do what he likes. Must keep this counter in mind.
2015-08-18 10:51 | Report Abuse
What is reasonably sure is that the results aren't likely to be good. Just a question of limiting whatever losses had occurredin the last quarter. The main reason for the drop - no new contracts. And those India power plants too, of course. But from what I had read, one will be operational by end of 2015. The other two(?) in early 2016. There will be some recurring income from these.
But it's new contracts that are more important. It is so beaten down right now...just a bit of good news would help create interest again.
I can't stand it anymore - I think I'm going to buy a few lots. Goes against my strategy of only buying into strength. But this price...
2015-08-17 22:02 | Report Abuse
Revenue over the last three financial years weren't too bad. Wouldn't be long before the next one is announced. It will likely be like last year - not excellent, but okay. I guess this sums up MK Land - an okay company, but nothing special.
Traders can make a few ringgit if they come in at its support level - more or less 30 sen or so. And then sell at nearly 40. Decent profit, if the wait is less than a year. But not many would dare to buy with market conditions like now.
By the way, Public Bank IB - the most optimistic in Malaysia! Been insisting on the 0.80 TP since a few years already. :-)
2015-08-17 21:33 | Report Abuse
No matter how one sees it, Najib and the 1MDB fallout are a significant factor in the depressed conditions we're in right now. True, most other currencies had also depreciated against the dollar. And then also affected by China's yuan move. But not as bad as what we're facing. It's not just the fall in oil and other commodities, but the bad name that guy has brought upon us.
Very attractive share prices right now, especially with good companies. But fundamentals don't count for much at the moment. Never fight against the tide because it will be a losing fight. I think the better thing to do is to hunker down and wait it out. Conserve capital, and sanity.
2015-08-17 20:24 | Report Abuse
Nexgram hasn't been doing too badly. From 30/4/09, all its quarters were in the plus. Just so-so though. But that's better than making losses, as with many/most of the below 0.10 counters.
Might be worth a punt. We only have to contend with fellow local speculators. Don't have to worry about foreign investors pulling the rug under our feet.
2015-08-17 20:15 | Report Abuse
This is a very promising company. It had reported good results over the past two financial years. Based on EPS, it should be at 2.00. Looked to be moving towards that. Unfortunately, the market turmoil has affected it too.
Gadang is in my shortlist. But I will wait until it shows signs of stabilising first. The turmoil has affected its momentum so better to wait for it to form a new base before buying.
2015-08-17 19:35 | Report Abuse
@paperplane3 - I'm looking at several property counters too. Like you, I see some very attractive counters at reasonable prices (can't say "cheap", because we only really know what the bottom is in retrospect).
Of course, when the market is like this, even the good companies will get whacked. I'm looking at those which are with attractive dividend yields AND have a record of paying out. Or tend to give bonus as reward. If we have to wait for the price to recover, at least we will have the consolation of receiving some dividend occasionally.
2015-08-17 16:38 | Report Abuse
@ks55 Thank you for your very kind words. I just try to share previous experiences of what worked and what didn't - especially the latter, because there are lessons whenever we make a loss. Or, failed to maximise an uptrend. The latter seems to be one of my weaknesses when trading/investing. After all the hard work of researching, then waiting for the counters to pick up, I'd often sell way too early. Would later shake my head looking at the profits I had left on the table.
We can learn a lot and thereby improve our investing in the stock market. There are ALWAYS opportunities, including and especially when the market is in turmoil. The problem is in spotting what are genuine bargains and what are potential traps. I just hope my strategy will pay off within the next 12 months.
2015-08-17 16:15 | Report Abuse
Darn! Even at the 'cheap' below 0.90 prices, it STILL goes down some more. Looks like we should just watch and do nothing for now. Must see some sort of floor and support first. Too dangerous to try guess the bottom. Better to keep the cash and wait for things to stabilise.
2015-08-17 16:10 | Report Abuse
@tofuman Problem with buying SFX is the hit we'll take when converting currency. If those counters go up, then everything's fine, of course. But basically that's a good idea.
2015-08-17 16:05 | Report Abuse
Counters that have a significant number of foreign investors - the big caps, including Bumi Armada etc. - it's not just the ringgit's decline but also investors' fear of possible capital control. Even though Bank Negara had given assurance this won't be done, investors are still concerned nonetheless. Because this was done before.
Bank Negara might recommend one thing but some bright spark in the government might persuade Najib to compel the central bank to impose capital control. This is what happens when investors are jittery - even though the prices are low, they'd cut loss to pull out their capital. Bank Negara and the government must do more to reassure them, else the heavy selling will continue.
2015-08-17 11:27 | Report Abuse
Looks like there are a few other long-suffering, hardcore Mudajaya fans here to keep me company:-) The next quarter results - maybe we should brace ourselves and just expect not-so-good news. More likely than a miracle...unless if Mudajaya had come into some unexpected revenue.
It's positive updates on that power plant in India that's most important. Been delayed for so many times with various reasons given since a few years ago. Disappointment after disappointment. But I believe it's now very close to operating. Hopefully this will be the catalyst to check Mudajaya's l-o-n-g and painful slide. One or two new contract announcements will definitely add to the interest.
I'm following this every day. Very gloomy right now, but we have seen how things can change. When this counter turns around, I will want to be in.
2015-08-17 11:12 | Report Abuse
@apini - Gadang is one of the counters that's in my shortlist. Now that you've mentioned it here and provided some figures and comparison, I'm upgrading it further. It was previously on an uptrend that was backed by its strong results, with a strong possibility of this continuing into the near future. However, it too could not escape the selling fever.
Looks like a good opportunity to buy. But I'm going to be cautious - will use only one-third of the intended capital for Gadang, in case it gets cheaper in the coming days.
2015-08-16 16:03 | Report Abuse
This is one of the best posts that I've read here. Including this observation: "But we are living in a world of political and economic diversity, and I cannot recall which year we don’t have a lot of problems which would impact the stock markets."
If we look back, even during those good times of a couple of years back, when the O&G and telco counters were minting money for traders, the conditions were not perfect either. There were also local political problems, plus external factors. Admittedly, the factors that we're facing now look more serious. But it's worth holding on to the main point from the quote above.
There are risks (always will be so), but I see the present turmoil and uncertainties as an opportunity. I had sold off way too early a couple of years ago and had left a lot of money on the table. But at the same time, I wasn't around when the O&G sharp decline started, as with the general fall arising from foreign investors selling. Some quality counters are now at attractive dividend yields - consolation for the investor while he waits for the price to recover.
To have a chance to make profits, one has to be in the game. If one is always fearful about prices falling, it's best that he just stays away from the stock market. Buy the Amanah Saham type of investment. But for those with much higher targets, he'll have to risk it with the stock market.
However, I'm approaching this cautiously - using just one-third of my intended capital for each of the selected counters. Whatever happens, I'd still have two-thirds of the cash left. The potential profits will be less, of course, but that's fine. Having cash in hand means having more options. For one thing, I can always opt to average up when the counters show signs of an uptrend (using another one-third of the capital).
Technical Analysis charts may not always produce the right results but at least there's some form of objective data to help with making decisions. Coupled with fundamental analysis, where only promising companies are shortlisted, I believe we have more than a fighting chance to make profits. Regardless of what the market looks like right now.
Do research, decide on what and when to buy, and then just wait. There's no need to start up the online trading app and follow the second-by-second blows. That's for short-term traders and speculators. Would stress us out unnecessarily. Checking the portfolio at noon and the close is more than enough. When it comes to quality counters, they tend to return to mean. It's just a question of how soon or how long. We have seen this before, again and again.
2015-08-16 13:09 | Report Abuse
I agree with both @Eric Fong and @xcu843 - the essence of their comments. This counter is worth following, regardless of the present market conditions, currency, political issues etc. The price is getting more and more attractive. And tempting. But the more prudent thing is to stick to what xcu843 said: "Wait and see".
If one can't stand seeing the attractive price and not doing anything, there's one option - buy, but use only part of the intended capital. Maybe a quarter or a third(?) This way you're covered both ways - if it continues to slide...well, you still have three-quarter of the intended allocation left. If it recovers, at least you do have some position.
There will be good opportunities in uncertain times like this. It's a question of spotting them, being brave enough to buy when the time comes, and then having the stamina to hold on and wait for things to turn around.
2015-08-14 09:46 | Report Abuse
@Ong Lie Chin It "had dropped" significantly. Bad for those who had bought at the IPO or higher price. But is it necessarily the same for those who did so at a lower price?
We know the main reasons for the drop - worry about it being armtwisted by the government to buy 1MDB assets at a sucker's price. The same happened with Tenaga. Then the general across the board drop which affected almost all counters.
Malakoff had bid for some of the 1MDB assets. But it won't pay at a premium. It can always ask for various concessions from the government to make the deal better for it. Like increased selling price for electricity to Tenaga (which will be absorbed either by the government or consumers), subsidised gas and whatever else.
The fact remains that its business model is in a more comfortable position than many others at BSKL.
2015-08-13 17:53 | Report Abuse
To be frank, I don't have any idea on the entry price. I'm more into the trend than the actual price - when I'm reasonably confident interest is returning to FGV, I'm in. Regardless of the price. I've been burnt on a number of occasions trying to guess the bottom of something. And I hate it, becoming a forced investor when the price gets lower.
But we can use a bit of logic here. Despite nobody being impressed by the low top management and how they manage FGV's resources, have to also note that the heavy selling appears to be over. Everyone who sells at this level, including institutions, are doing so at a loss. I believe most of the sellers are long gone...which also means those remaining are strong holders.
All the bad news have been priced in. Even if the coming quarter report shows poor results, it wouldn't create a sell-off. If only because people don't have high expectations of it, and no more sellers either. So, any piece of reasonably good news will be magnified. That's when interest in FGV will pick up, and the price recovering.
The dividend yield has become quite attractive, and I'm sure institutions are aware and watching. But I'll wait for them to actually start coming back again before I plonk down my own precious and limited cash into it. When I do, it's with expectations of at least a 30% profit. Quite reasonable actually - it just need to to 2.00, which I feel it will when moderate interest returns.
2015-08-13 15:25 | Report Abuse
We don't know the future, and the price of crude oil is down and all. But see it this way: the person buying SKPetro right now at this price is getting a much better deal than those who had bought at 4.50. Doesn't mean he will automatically make a profit, but his chances of doing so are extremely reasonable. Especially when he can hold it for some time.
SKPetro has been at this price before, including after the merger. Many/Most were fearful - talking about "will go down to 1.50 etc. And then kicking themselves when it went up and up. Only buying when it is near the peak... and then selling at a loss when it slides. "Buy high, Sell low".
These things are cyclical. Bad times now, yes. But will it always be like this? SKPetro is a big cap, and it's counters like this that fund managers will go for when they return.
2015-08-13 15:17 | Report Abuse
Reread the sentences again and understand first: "Today, considering how the market is, Malakoff is holding up well."
2015-08-13 13:04 | Report Abuse
For speculators and traders, just watch the technical charts. It doesn't matter how good or bad a company's management is. When there's an uptrend, beaten down counters like this will provide the biggest profit margins in the shortest time. That's the reason why I follow its movements.
I'm scornful of the chairman, MD, board of directors and in how they have failed to utilise the resources for better performance. But you have to consider that this company has advantages, especially its huge tracts of land and the fact that the government will always favour it.
Remember why we are in the stock market - to make money for ourselves. I had let many great opportunities slip away in the past simply because I didn't like the companies. For some reason or another, despite the facts indicating an uptrend. And then watched their prices go up and up. Don't want to miss good opportunities anymore. So I'll keep watching, and buy when the tide changes.
2015-08-13 02:02 | Report Abuse
"But when the stars align..."
2015-08-13 02:01 | Report Abuse
By the way, one method to average down while not having to put up too much cash is via the structured warrants. Just be aware of the risks and things like expiry date, premium etc. But this will only work when UMWOG is moving upwards, and there's momentum. Get it wrong and the loss in percentage terms may be significant. But of the stars align, you'll bless these warrants' magical powers :-)
2015-08-13 01:51 | Report Abuse
@Zakhirudin Ehwan If your average price is at 4.18, and especially if you're not too desperate to use the cash, maybe it's better to just let things be and hold on. True, there's always the possibility it might go even lower (as if this isn't already ridiculously low enough!). But then this kind of possibility is also present with any other counter. My thinking is, if you had held on all this while despite the painful slide, why only now? Why not earlier when the realised loss would have been less?
I agree with @onetonneman's main point above. Looks like you are the investor kind, not speculator or trader (like me, most of the time). You had bought due to being convinced by its business and potentials. Unfortunately, the crude oil landscape had changed. But I believe it's cyclical. We have seen this before. The only issue is when things will at least stabilise somewhat.
A lot will depend on how the top management handles things. It's their problem and responsibility. When the share price starts to improve, it's a good idea to average down the 4.18. But only when you are reasonably confident it's on an uptrend. You can ask a few people here to help with this when things are better. In the meantime, no need to follow the price too closely. Certainly not via the trading screen of second-by-second blows. Just live life, and let events happen over time.
2015-08-13 01:17 | Report Abuse
@supernova This "delicious" aspect has gotten me burnt too many times :-) We'd think something "can't possibly go lower"...and it does just that. Critical things like NTA, potentials - even actual business performance - get ignored by the market.
I'm very interested in Alam but don't dare to guess the bottom anymore. At the very least, it must be above the 20-day Moving Average first. There's potential for at least a 50% capital gain with this kind of counter. The problem is, of course, in reading the movements right; to not jump in too early.
Stock: [PARKSON]: PARKSON HOLDINGS BHD
2015-08-26 15:32 | Report Abuse
That is the 'leceh' part about trying to be "a value investor". Both Parkson and AirAsia looked to be very attractively priced. These companies are actually making profits and giving dividends.
Sure, we can comfort ourselves that we're holding these for the long term. Most likely those who have the stamina to wait will likely make profits. And others will be kicking themselves for not buying these counters when they were on sale.
But it's no fun to buy something and then see it slip ever lower...even though we intend to wait it out. Might be better to buy only when we're reasonably sure the bottom has been reached, and there's strong support at a certain level...even though our buying price is higher. Consider that as "premium for safety".
I had planned to buy but the drop from this morning has made me hesitant. Going to wait a bit more.