Ahmad Cendana

cendana287 | Joined since 2012-03-14

Investing Experience Intermediate
Risk Profile Moderate

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Stock

2015-12-08 16:19 | Report Abuse

I had read that item earlier. This drop today most likely is due to that warning by the CEO, and especially the last quarter's results. But I believe the market has now priced those in. More important is the support - if it holds, then this counter will build a new base at around this level.

The fact that it's a dividend-paying counter is an attraction. Especially if the price doesn't go south, and thereby discouraging the genuine investors (as opposed to "traders"). And the selling volume isn't too heavy today. But let's see how it goes tomorrow. There's still time to observe and make sure of the support level. Don't want to get a 6-sen dividend but with the counter dropping 0.15.

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2015-12-08 14:49 | Report Abuse

I'm going to take a calculated risk with Signature. It's now near a major support, which should hold (if it doesn't, I'm cutting loss). There's a 6 sen dividend on 16 Dec.

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2015-12-08 13:32 | Report Abuse

The main problems with SILK is loan-servicing. For instance, the vessels it had bought for the oil & gas division. Capital outlay is heavy. The highway concession brings in much-needed revenue, but a big part of that goes to loan servicing. But it *is* a good asset. One possibility for SILK - some cash-rich entity like EPF etc. makes an offer for the expressway. We can only hope for capital appreciation. No chance of a dividend ever being announced.

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2015-12-07 12:32 | Report Abuse

Thanks @hng33. Appreciate the analysis and assessment. Things like this helps with making an informed decision. May or may not work out. But at least we do a bit of homework first rather than simply jumping in.

News & Blogs

2015-12-07 12:10 | Report Abuse

It does look interesting to hold as an investment. Even though sales of new cars are not as good right now, the ones already on the road do need replacement parts now and then. But just watch out for the support level. If it slips, then cutting loss here and now is called for.

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2015-12-07 12:02 | Report Abuse

I don't know. Am driving a European car. Older model...16 years old Heheh! One more about MBMR - quite regular dividends. If this support is strong, then it may be worth taking the risk. There's potential for a 15-sen profit until it meets the very strong resistance. But this is assuming the support holds.

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2015-12-07 11:55 | Report Abuse

MBMR - only one 'attraction', if one wants to call it that...it's now at a critical support level. That could possibly be the bottom, which means one is getting at the ground floor. But if it slips below this level, better have the discipline to make a cut loss instead of waiting and hoping.

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2015-12-04 19:11 | Report Abuse

@Ring Might lead to something if you do write to him. But this is a GLC - people are too comfortable to do anything. And what do they care? It's not their money on the line here.

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2015-12-04 15:57 | Report Abuse

A couple of days ago, UK-based investment company, Polo had taken up a stake. Did they know about this latest deal via Lime? Most likely they did. The fund manager surely had done some research, and contacted the right people before he plonked down the investment. He must have seen future potential in Hibiscus. Anyway, the share price has gotten so beaten down.

News & Blogs

2015-11-28 01:53 | Report Abuse

Reasonable analysis here. Much better than The Edge's and the media's interpretation of the results.

Stock

2015-11-25 12:11 | Report Abuse

@fengtzekai 9:41 -- "If you care to check, the CEO of JTB disposed 326k warrant at 0.841 per warrant on 19/11/2015."

Sharp observation here. The CEO surely had known in advance about coming results and announcements. Especially of the likely (now realised) fall. Doesn't this disposal constitute insider trading?

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2015-11-23 15:39 | Report Abuse

FINALLY, after several months, it has cleared 0.03.

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2015-11-20 10:58 | Report Abuse

At least a couple of things have been established: 0.085 is very strong support while 0.10 the most immediate resistance. Will need contra players to pile in to create enough momentum to liftoff and clear the latter.

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2015-11-20 10:55 | Report Abuse

How disappointing. Suddenly quiet again after just one day. High volume yesterday - if contra players had jumped on, we'll be seeing significant selling next week.

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2015-11-19 21:23 | Report Abuse

Discouraging news on all fronts. Instead of some sort of turnaround possibility, the business aspect indicate things might get worse. Technically, 1.00 will be very critical support. If it slips through, becomes penny stock category and fails to immediately rebound, the slide will continue. In this case, the technical charts are considered as broken and couldn't be relied on for an sort of guidance. Traders must stay clear until it forms a bottom AND indicates a possible upturn. Have to put in deep freeze for now and use the intended capital elsewhere.

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2015-11-19 11:12 | Report Abuse

@Parkson, as I mentioned earlier, with Parkson, I'm not looking at the business side. It may turn around, it may not. I'm sure WC will try. But at the same time, must also accept that he will be looking after *his* and family's interests first and foremost. Minority shareholders are just there for the ride. As with other public-listed counters. We will always be the "timun" while the major shareholders are the durian. Be on the wrong side, wrong time and we get spiked.

But having said that, I see potential in Parkson as a trading, swing trade... when it does turn. It has come off so much from its peak. $$$ to be made if it recovers to only a third of that. Can't follow all the counters at BSKL - too many. But I've added Parkson to the potential trading list. However, have to see some positive movements first.

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2015-11-19 11:02 | Report Abuse

Ah, encouraging signs of waking up. I'm hoping the contra players would rotate from XOX etc. and come in for Amedia. Would help give me my "BSKL BR1M Payment" :-)

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2015-11-18 17:09 | Report Abuse

No problem with me. Your hentam is backed by strong points and helps to place the spotlight on its business issues. I agree with your assessment - the prospects don't look good for Parkson's operations. And most probably you will be proven right about the coming quarterly results. The fall today, from an already low price - selling by someone who knows what the figures are...?

I had read WC's 26-year-old daughter has been promoted to a very high position. Well, she may prove to be capable, but it does raise murmurs. A 26-year-old running critical things... It's like Parkson can't find anyone else.

But I'm not going to give myself a headache analysing Parkson's business aspects. Will just take the easy route by reading what analysts like you think :-) With Parkson, I'm only exploring trading opportunities. If the set-up looks right, and there's the potential for some quick profit, I'm in.

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2015-11-18 16:40 | Report Abuse

@ks55 Pasar Malam... Haha! Yeah, it's now in the dumps. But I'm still following it. There will come the day when all those who are discouraged by its performance will finally dump it. That leaves only the strong holders who won't be selling at this level. I believe there will be very satisfying upside for this counter. But the time to put in the money isn't here yet. Will continue to watch and watch...

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2015-11-18 16:24 | Report Abuse

It didn't go down that low. 0.085 was the lowest if I'm not wrong. Will have to check the transactions, but I don't think we would have gotten. Unless we were high up in the queue. Anyway no use regretting because nobody can foresee the future. The best is to make an educated guess. But the technical indicators weren't too encouraging although they showed it was oversold.

I'll see how it goes, especially after seeing the results. Keeping my options open to add more if things look favourable. By the way, unless if someone had cooked the accounts, this company looks to be on a sound footing. Selling at below it's NTA.

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2015-11-18 16:08 | Report Abuse

@eftee, hope you're right. I had bought at 0.10 a couple of weeks ago thinking it was the bottom. It wasn't. Was dismayed it went to 0.085. Collected because I felt it had overshot due to contra players panicking, plus forced selling...not due to business reasons.

It's performance today is encouraging. If the quarter results are better than the previous one, that might be the catalyst for an uptrend. Going to 0.15 in the coming weeks would be sweet.

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2015-11-03 14:36 | Report Abuse

Yup, @hng33 is on a roll with this one. He's been making the right calls and raking in the money. Too bad I was late to see this in the morning.

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2015-11-03 14:35 | Report Abuse

PN17 - I think this is a bit too far ahead. A possibility though. For the fundamental, value investor, would be prudent to check what's going on with the business aspects and balance sheet. A few people seem to know something - notice the steep fall yesterday on rather small volume. They were selling at whatever price the buyer wanted. Then the deluge today. It might be some genuine business trouble that has yet to be announced, OR some syndicate is manipulating to buy on the cheap.

But I'm just a speculator, trying to make a few ringgit from momentum and rebound. Like @hng33 etc. Will have to put a cut loss though should it go below a certain price.

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2015-11-03 14:23 | Report Abuse

Exactly 2 months ago, from RHB-OSK when Hibiscus was at 0.75:
"TP 0.80... Buy".

From previous experience, I'd much sooner isten to and follow the opinions of several people here at this forum. Not the IB analysts. If they are really very good, they wouldn't be 'makan gaji' but running their own investment funds. But some of the people at this forum...they are much knowledgeable and wise.

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2015-11-03 13:18 | Report Abuse

@hng33 Am late to see this. What do you think based on your assessment - is there still an opportunity at 0.32? Or would it be better to do nothing for now?

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2015-10-07 12:04 | Report Abuse

The more important thing is for SKPetro to finish and stay above 2.00. This was a very strong resistance point psychologically. If it does so, then it will continue retracing to where it was before the panic in August.

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2015-09-23 13:46 | Report Abuse

@KAQ4468 Tak nak push my luck. Dah banyak tu AA bagi, khususnya kepada yang enter pada very low point 0.80 - 1.00. Bagi dia rest, consolidate dulu. Lagipun, tak tahu apa benda akan jadi di overseas market. Kalau good news, minggu depan boleh beli semula. Harga mahal sedikit, tak apa. Yang bimbangnya, kalau Europe, US markets buat leceh... jadi berjangkit ke BSKL. Buat serabut perut pulak weekend kita.

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2015-09-23 12:47 | Report Abuse

It's always very tough to break past a major psychological point - round numbers. But when SKPetro goes past 2.00 convincingly, that will be the next phase of an uptrend. Don't be too influenced by crude oil prices. It's Price Action that matters most.

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2015-09-23 12:41 | Report Abuse

I'm going to say goodbye to AA for the time being. Main reason is the weekend. Don't want to have too many things on my mind. But I'll definitely be back with AA. Wait for it to consolidate the gains, build a new base and then go on the next upturn.

News & Blogs

2015-09-11 18:47 | Report Abuse

@ks55 Sound advice there on REIT. I will indeed put some of my capital inside this 'unexciting' class of shares for my own retirement fund. Especially when I'm eligible to withdraw my EPF savings, which is in the very near future.

But for now, I have to make enough capital first so as to ensure the dividends will be meaningful. Have a lot of catching up to do though. Due to some problems over the past years, including a few that were self-inflicted/failure to quickly mitigate, only now am I able to set towards this goal again.

I have to take more risks than you to achieve my goals. Thanks to some non-crippling losses (plus profits too) over the last few years, valuable lessons were learnt. These were augmented by the various tips and information from several people here - precious insights which have contributed a lot towards investing, trading and protecting one's capital (like this post and the comments).

There are always opportunities in the stock market. Including during the heavy sell-off recently that provided me with what I think is enough safety margin. But I didn't go in fully - must always remember to properly allocate capital and not put everything in just one asset class. Since last month, I had also put some of the capital into currencies - Singapore and Hong Kong dollars - as sort of "small-timer's hedge". Not Forex, which I don't dare to touch, but physical currency. Unexpectedly, there has been some profit from this! It's always good to have some of our capital in cash...and this cash should not be exclusively in ringgit.

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2015-09-11 11:54 | Report Abuse

@rishi - Based on observations over the past years, I fully agree with @viper88. Fundamentals are important, no doubt. But "sentiments" override this. If it's trading instead of "investing", watch out for the underlying trend - whether the bias is towards the upside or downside. If something is on a downtrend, it doesn't matter how much its profits are - traders will see a reduction in their capital (as per the share price) if they insist on buying. When there's upward momentum, things like crude oil prices, contracts, EPS, dividend become irrelevant.

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2015-09-11 10:27 | Report Abuse

FINALLY. The long awaited rebound.
0.20 is very strong resistance. The fact that THHeavy had managed to get to here from 0.13 is significant. This looks extremely promising.

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2015-09-10 15:43 | Report Abuse

Steady, steady...
Don't have to be eye-catching like AirAsia. Just keep adding half a sen every other day and defend. That would be good enough.

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2015-09-08 16:17 | Report Abuse

It's not really 'cheap' as per the premium. However, HK has gotten to a more reasonable price as compared to previously.

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2015-09-03 12:50 | Report Abuse

Have to see the afternoon session, especially from 4 PM. As long as it stays above 0.90, that should be good enough. Step-by-step, and defend critical levels. Only after that can we hope for good times again. Have to consider the environment and situations we're in right now. Especially after AA's long and painful drop over the past weeks. Can't be too ambitious.

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2015-09-03 12:43 | Report Abuse

0.40 or 0.50 isn't impossible. But at this juncture, it will be a mere guess. Most likely it *will* get to 0.50. The question, as always, is "when". It won't be a straight line up, that's for sure. I'm more concerned about the near term... of whether this is the start to an upswing or just a technical rebound. If it's the former, then I'm holding on. If not, then to just take the profit.

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2015-09-03 11:41 | Report Abuse

Yaay! Moving today! Thought I had made a mistake earlier when it came to timing. But I was confident, no matter what, 0.30 would hold as the support. With the market sometimes very shaky, this is extremely important. You wouldn't feel as nervous as holding some other counters.

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2015-09-02 16:56 | Report Abuse

At last, after months of the share price slowly bleeding.
The previous quarter's results definitely weren't good. But that's secondary when it comes to share price. For every counter, there will be the point of capitulation when most everyone gives up and sell. That leaves only those who are strong holders.

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2015-09-01 16:27 | Report Abuse

This is so sudden. Does it mean foreign investors are continuing to sell again? Or maybe it's just panicky contra players.

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2015-08-28 17:22 | Report Abuse

Next Tuesday, let's see whether 0.85 holds. If it does, that could mean the bottom to AA's long slide has been found. Can consider buying some lots and wait. If not, better to keep staying at the sidelines.

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2015-08-28 16:03 | Report Abuse

@richkid I believe that's the general opinion of many investors. Long weekend ahead and they'd rather not have too many positions. We don't know what may be in store in the next 3 days, locally and at the international level. If things are fine, there will be the opportunities to buy early on Tuesday. A bit higher price than right now is considered okay.

If AA manages to close higher or even the same as yesterday, that should already be considered as good. Have to look at the bigger picture.

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2015-08-28 11:38 | Report Abuse

@hng33 I think I'm going to risk it too. Been observing it again lately, especially in how it responds to the general market. It went down like most others. But the most notable thing is that 0.30 looks to be VERY strong support. We don't know the future, but I agree downside risk looks limited. This is very important considering the general depressed conditions.

Looks like there's potential for short-term trading. Something like selling at 0.36 is achievable. Please tell us when you're bailing out, okay?

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2015-08-28 11:25 | Report Abuse

Do that, guys. This company has a lot of potential due to its assets and political connections. But these aren't being maximised. If there's a change in the top management, there will be an immediate dramatic reaction to its share price. Getting fed-up of it being only in the 0.30s...occasionally going a bit above 0.40. Not good enough with all those assets.

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2015-08-28 09:41 | Report Abuse

Daya in Top 10 of Most Active counters... Haven't seen this in many weeks.

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2015-08-28 09:37 | Report Abuse

Kimlun, yes. There's a lot of potential in this company. The recent slide has provided a great opportunity for those wanting to come in. It's never in the spotlight but tend to rise quietly. A 30% capital gain within a year from this price level would be a very reasonable target.

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2015-08-27 12:27 | Report Abuse

@voonyoke 11:01 AM Noted, and thanks.
This is a very good instrument in hedging/profiting from a drop in BSKL. I'm also considering it as insurance. However, the price must also be "right". Based on your calculations, there's a rather high premium. Nothing unusual about a high premium because that's how structured warrants work. However, must guard against the possibility of speculators panicking and cutting loss, creating a chain reaction and taking the price to its proper level.

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2015-08-27 11:12 | Report Abuse

Encouraging session. But I'm going to watch the afternoon show first to see whether the selling can be absorbed. Don't want to be too hasty, risking precious capital for the possibility of a 5-sen gain. But this counter is very good for traders with a very short holding span who are willing to risk it.

Stock

2015-08-26 16:39 | Report Abuse

Just when there appeared a glimmer of hope in the morning session. Wellington likely is still reducing its holdings, so it wouldn't be a good idea to buy just yet.

I suspect a lot of the selling is also bank-related. Many of the significant shareholders have used AA shares as collateral for various reasons. That was when these were valued at at least 2.00. The fall results in a cascade of events to individuals which are unknown to us, but with AA shares being a factor. These are then liquidated, adding further pressure to the price factor.

Well, yet another day of the seemingly never ending slide.

News & Blogs

2015-08-26 16:24 | Report Abuse

@ks55 That's what I'm trying very hard to stick to despite the very tempting prices we see everywhere. Can't stay totally at the sidelines, of course - if we want to try make a profit, we must be in the game first. However, based on environment right now, I'm also being cautious. Protecting one's capital is called given the possibilities we're facing now.

For those with significant holdings in the stock market, it may be a good idea to buy some insurance "just in case". Specifically, put warrants. Should something happen, at least there will be some consolation. One will also sleep better at night knowing he is somewhat covered and not totally exposed and hapless in a sudden crash. The problem is, our local put warrants have become overpriced.

News & Blogs

2015-08-26 16:11 | Report Abuse

Very informative post which explains the difference between Apollo and LB. I guess I'll just delete LB from my list. Previously, I had thought it would be a good idea due to the perceived 'value'. Not so, as this post shows.

I'll also be paying more attention to ROE. Admittedly, all this while I'm a lot more focused on EPS. Still will be, but with ROE also taken into the mix.