These IB analysts and their target prices - they've had their share of misses too besides the hits. So do we. Each has his own way of valuing something and trying to predict future movements. No one can really say whether something is `right' or `wrong' until it does happen. Or not happen. With TPs, give enough time and a lot of predictions may come true. But how long will this wait has to be? It's not just with AirAsia but other counters too. Often there are wide differences between one TP and another. One IB may say 2.45, another 3.50 for AirAsia. So who is correct? I agree with yfchong - yes, read these reports but in the final analysis, it's what *we* think that counts the most. After all, it's our money at stake here.

The afternoon action was a surprise. After a very quiet morning session, I had not expected much to happen. Just goes to show AA is unpredictable. If this continues next week, then there's something to look forward to. Could there still be life to C3? I wouldn't dare to buy this one - not with such a short life. But good luck to those who do. The more realistic SWs like C7, C8 and C9 would be in demand again if AA keeps this up.

@yfchong - that is quite possible. Tony Fernandes might decide to be generous and declare something which will create a buzz and boost morale among investors. Even if it's not financially prudent. Doing so will likely result in an immediate spike in its price. Whether it's sustainable or otherwise is another matter. It's in the major shareholders' interests to have AA priced at a higher level.

AirAsia-C3... Ex. Price 2.54; Expiry 28/2/14. It went as high as 0.37. Now at 0.005. The ex. price looks `reasonable': 20 sen off the price now. If things were more positive, there might be a fighting chance. But not now... unless if AA were to announce a surprising 4Q which goes beyond analysts' expectations. Airlines aren't very attractive at the moment and it would need something really special to be in the limelight again. We may need to wait a bit more for sentiments and key circumstances to change. For now, everyone is waiting for 4Q results first before doing anything.

20 to 28 Feb... still so many days to go. It's possible 4QE may be "good" since oil prices were comparatively lower during that period. BUT the US$ was stronger compared to MYR and this might turn out to be a bigger factor when it comes to profits and losses.

I'm still undecided about AA. This is a confirmed favourite counter with short-term traders and speculators. It often provides good opportunities to make a few bucks, especially with the call warrants. But you often have to jump the gun in buying before the crowd comes in (and running when they are chasing up the price). Today the volume is meaningless. Let's see what the insiders/big guys do next week - if they are selling, that means they already know what will be announced... and it's bad.

Anyone knows when the Q4 results will be announced? The newsletters of CIMB investment bank would have a calendar where it would state the dates of these announcements. But I don't receive them from my remisier anymore (not from CIMB). These dates are very useful - at the very least we know when something is coming out and can be ready.

One of the positives about AA is that 2.20 has TWICE been proven as solid support. Often, a counter would reverse a trend and start an upswing when the bottom has been reached. With AA, I believe that Q4/yearly announcement will be crucial - it will either start an upswing OR tumble below 2.20, either way, depending on how good or bad the results and perceived prospects will be. I'm going to bet on the former, because I think the sellers are already out. But I'm also going to hedge and set stops should things not go AA's way. If it goes below 2.20, I'm going to cut loss because it will likely go lower after that.

Some analysts and investors are expecting Q4/2013 figures to be lower. As such I believe the market has already priced in these expectations over the past weeks. When the results are officially announced, would there be a big sell off among investors? I don't think so... because most have already sold. It's not like AA will be announcing a loss - just "lower than expected profits".

But, as a trader, I'm more interested in the technical charts. Price action is everything. Don't know where it's moving though. Looks like everyone is cautious and waiting for the Q4 announcement first. The only `certainty' is that 2.20 is a strong support while 2.40 is a big obstacle. Looks like AA will be trapped within this range until some new impetus emerges.

Seems to be like UMWOG too. Barakah had also started with strong momentum upon listing. It has added 100% since 6 Nov! This is already A LOT if people stop to think about it. Is the price justified? But when something is hot, it's hot. Can't argue with the price action.

It has been quiet since the end of October. But looks to have found its bottom. I'd say downside risk is minimal at its present price. I'm waiting for the speculators to come back again, see more daily volume. From past experience, this counter can be very rewarding.

Well, good luck. It might have better potential. With SKPetro, 5.00 seems to be a huge barrier. Only a 49-sen margin from the current price... if it does go there again. Support is at 4.30 or so. Have to watch this too - if it slips under this floor, it might slide further.

Have to read the analysts' reports to judge which is `better' business-wise. I'm just a trader/speculator so I'm more interested in trends and short-term gain potentials. UMWOG has made significant gains since it was listed. Seems to go up and up. This is good AND bad. Even the later comers have made a profit from the uptrend. Shouldn't there be some form of a correction and consolidation? Or maybe it will just move on to 5.00, leaving those hesitant (including me) regretting? There isn't enough data yet to form technical charts since it is so new. SKPetro, on the other hand, has been around, so things like support etc. are much clearer. Technical charts won't guarantee anything, of course, but at least one won't go in too blindly.

Saw in the newspapers a few investment bank analysts favouring UMWOG too. It's still `new' so maybe there's more upward potential with this one(?) What I've been observing over the past couple of years: "announcements move prices". SKPetro had often benefited from this in the past. It seems that there would be some new project or other every month. UMWOG has started on a good momentum; if the management announces some new contract here and there, this would help with the price. "Make hay while the sun shines" - most everyone seems to favour O&G. We the small fish should try to capitalise on the uptrend.

@iafx, I agree with you about "the wind" - this is THE most important aspect for traders and similar short-term investors. Things like PE, debt, NTA etc. don't really matter for traders. "The trend" is everything. For the moment, it still looks favourable.

Very popular company and covered by some foreign analysts too. But can get a bit scary at times when it dips like that. As long as the oil & gas sector remains a favourite among analysts and institutional buyers, small investors should be okay riding the uptrend.

But, despite talk among some of it aiming for 5.00, it does look a bit pricey at this current level. Remember how high it has gone up since the Sapura-Kencana merger in mid 2012. After the listing of the new entity, it went down as low as 1.90-something. But those who had bought it during that time, and especially its earlier call warrants of CA onwards, would have made significant profits.

Many investors and institutions are still busy with the oil & gas counters. Construction stocks have been taking a back seat over the past three months, including WCT. One good thing about it is that 2.00 appears to be a strong support floor. WCT is seasonal - worth watching for the time when construction counters become the flavour again. 50 sen profit per share is a reasonable target.

I believe plantation stocks will announce better quarter results as compared to their corresponding previous quarter. Palm oil prices are now better than previously and this should be reflected in the last and coming quarters. Since late November 2013, Kulim had shed 65 sen and is now attractively priced. Plantation stocks usually give good dividends and institutional investors will want to add counters like Kulim to their portfolio. Patience will be rewarded.

@alex2012 Yes, that's a reasonable ratio. I like it too over the others. Although the ex. price is 5 sen higher than C7, my logic is this: if it does get to 2.55, what is another 5 sen? And C8 has an extra two months to expiry, which is an attraction for punters. With warrants, it's often just a question of "time" - have enough of this and one will likely strike... if the ex. price isn't exceptionally high. Can't do anything about the 0.07 price - we have to take a position sooner or later. Good luck! Hope to be on the same boat as you in the very near future:-)

Encouraging finish over the past three days. Time to closely follow its call warrants. I lost a great opportunity when Digi moved too fast. But AirAsia has the potential to perform too. I'm looking at the below 3.00 warrants:
C7 2.55 (22/8/14)
C8 2.60 (31/10/14)
C9 2.70 (10/11/14
C10 2.48 (19/1/15)

The warrants kaki here would know the drill - have to jump the gun when buying. Wait too long and they become too expensive. Buy at the wrong time (just when it starts to correct) and we're looking at 20%-plus losses. Going to study which warrants are the best. Any suggestions, guys?

Critical point for MRCB. At least it's holding at the 1.50 level, which is promising. This is the ex. price of -CR (21/3/14). I feel the present premium is a bit high though. If it drops a bit, I'm in.

There's one 900-pound gorilla in the form of an institutional investor - is it PNB? - that keeps selling whenever the price goes to 5.00. Digi would have performed like Axiata and Maxis months ago had this institution not thrown a wet blanket each time the counter goes past 5.00.

Aiseh, -CW sellers asking for 0.03 now. Going to wait next week. If there's still interest in Sime, I'll consider forking out the extra half sen.

1.80 looks to be a very strong support. Not enough interest and volume to push it past 2.00. But UOADev is popular with traders - when these fellows start being interested again, I would want to have a position.

If it closes above 9.00 today, that would be notable. Psychology is very important - it's always difficult for any counter to break past any ".00" level. Stay too long below 9.00 and investors start to accept Sime as a "8 ringgit-something" counter. If it's above RM9 next week, -CW's 9.40 looks viable. A counter like this doesn't require too much to add 50-plus sen over a couple of weeks.

I'll be satisfied if it just closes above 2.30. "strong base" - this is what's required before it can shoot up. When the technical indicators turn positive, traders will come in and help push up the price. Institutional investors who had sold over the past few months will want to come in again.

Painful for Kulim investors right now seeing the counter slide lower and lower over the past two months. As with most of the plantation stocks too. But it will reach its bottom and form a base eventually. Plantation stocks will have its day in the sun again and when that happens, I'm betting on Kulim. This is one of the counters that I'm watching every day.

Encouraging finishes over the past two days with good volume. It has almost gotten to the 20- and 50-day Moving Average. If it goes past 2.30 and stay above that level tomorrow, traders will jump in again. AA looks promising.

Not expecting it to suddenly shoot up, although it's not impossible when it comes to AA based on past performance. For the moment, I'm looking for it to form a base first. That should confirm the 2.20 support is solid. I've gotten burnt too many times coming in too early. Better to buy when indications of an upswing are clearer. The price may be higher but the chance for a profit will be better. For the time being, I would rather have my capital at the sidelines until the Moving Averages and RSI look more promising.

Of course, can buy...f you don't mind losing 100% of your capital at the end of this month Heheh! Only a hardcore cowboy speculator would dare buy it now: CN: Ex. Price 2.70; Expiry 28/2/2014 ...

Now Kulim is at 3.17 (plus 4 sen, very small volume). But if somehow, out of the blue, investors suddenly start to buy the mother, and it shoots to past 2.70, there would be massive 500% or more profits for the cowboy warrants punter. Unlikely. It hasn't even found a support level yet.

Zelan-WA: 0.10 Ex.Price 0.25 (20/1/19). Mother is now 0.20. Better to just buy the mother if you think it will go up. At this price I think the downside risk is minimal. If there's something in the works, it could be like Scomi in 2012. Worth watching.

-CW Ex. 9.40; Expiry 30/5/14 ... Sime at 8.82 now.
For punters, there's a fighting chance here. But the problem is, Sime is on a downtrend since the start of 2014. Have to see it land on a solid floor first. 3.5 months to expiry isn't a long time. But I'm watching this one...

It's on a downtrend since early November `13. Doesn't matter what the NTA or whatever is. The 6.00 support is crucial - if it slips below 6, then we'll have to wait until it does find the support and form a new base. It may be a good company as some say but there's no compelling reason to buy it at the moment.

These are the more recent (2/12/2013) TPs by the investment bank analysts when Sendai was at 1.26 or so:
1.46 (RHB)
1.50 (Maybank)
1.28 (HLG)
1.17 (Alliance)

All are higher than the current price, and would-be investors might be encouraged, i.e. "there's significant upside". And these analysts surely had done some homework. BUT, as we have seen time and again with these counters, the market doesn't care what figures the analysts may compute. It may go up to these TPs but we don't know when that will be. At present, we don't even have a solid support level now that the technical charts are broken.

I think we should wait for some sort of catalyst that will make investors consider it again. Like an announcement about some project or some positive news. That should serve as an impetus for a possible rebound. For the moment, this counter is simply unattractive.

@thundercats, I wouldn't dare to say whether one should buy or not. But one discouraging thing about Sendai - it does look `limp', right? Slow slide, not much volume although it looks like it has found some sort of support. I don't know lah...maybe it's better to put your money elsewhere for the time being.

@Duitbesar, volume kira okay hari ni. Nak kena follow esok-lusa camana. Kalau volume sustain, tak ramai yang dok sibuk nak sell, nampak peluang cerah AA ni. Yang tak berapa seronok, hal pelabur asing dok cakap hal "emerging market turmoil". Kalau foreign institutional investors sell, AA ni tentu akan sakit.

@yfchong: Hi:-) Been some time since I was last here. Sold out waaay too soon after the General Elections... and then saw most of the counters going up. Sigh, poor timing. Now that the international media is talking about "turmoil in emerging markets", I'm back. Could be a case of double bad timing for me. Hope not Heheh!

2.20 appears to be a strong support. But going to wait and see it forming a base first; let it go above its 100-day moving average. This is one the speculators' favourite counters. Have to wait for these fellows to be interested again before I jump in.

@karipap, mind sharing your new strategy? I have one too: now I'm buying only those that appear to be on an upswing, even if they have "already gone up". OR those that appear to have found solid support and with a history of going up after that. Like AirAsia, although I need to see sustained interest first before going in. With Sendai, I'm just following...just looking and observing.

@maps, based on the technical charts, Sendai looks broken. "Maybe" it has reached its bottom. But it's hard to say because no one knows where the next support is. It's way off its 100, 50 and 20-day moving average. This is new territory, the counter is still searching for its support. Yeah, it certainly looks `cheap' but that's no guarantee investors will start buying. One positive aspect is that most sellers are already gone. I think it's better to wait and see - let there be some sort of strong support first.

I lost a significant amount when I speculated on its call warrants at BSKL. The investors in the US were not pleased with its quarter results despite the big profits and Apple saw a big selloff. Just my bad luck:-( Would have made money had I bought any other well-known US company's CW: Google and Facebook especially.

Digi CN & IJMPlant CC & MHB-CO... I'll look into these and see. Digi-CN: Just another one month until expiry although that's relatively okay since the mother is now above the ex. price of 4.88. But the ratio is so unattractive - 12!

I had this once. It is usually quiet and ignored most of the time but it will have its seasons and moments. There was a sudden spike late last year after I had held it for some months. Took the oportunity to sell off. That was fortunate because it immediately went down in the following days:-(

Yes, I agree about the present management - they are doing their best to mitigate the troubles brought by Jackson Tan & Co. before their dismissal. But this is a tough, low-margin business with competitors front, right and centre. With many people, their cheap local "roti dakwah" (made and sold by the missionary type - you have this in EVERY district, it seeems) is more than good enough. They aren't likely to fork out the extra ringgit for premium roti from SilverBird, Gardenia, Massimo etc. The former was what I had lived on for years when in Pasir Mas. After remarrying and moving here (Kota Damansara), I was surprised to see my wife buying the SilverBird bread (RM3.20, if I'm not mistaken). "There are much cheaper roti...", I helpfully informed her. "Yeah, but their content is not as good"... Oh, okay. Guess I'll just fork out the extra RM1.00 then.

Anyway, one thing I've observed about counters and their prices - we can argue until the cows come home about which are the "better" companies and "with more potential". We can also talk about their business, markets and management. But all these are nowhere near as important as "price action". Nowadays, I try to spot support and momentum building up, and counters making key breaks past their resistance. Price action offers a much better chance to make money, plus providing the indications as to when to take the profit and run or to swallow your pride, cut loss and look for another opportunity.

@koyak71, Congratulations on your performances so far. Betul tu - kalau saya ada modal yang "berpatutan", lebih baik beli ordinary shares dan tunggu. This is what my father, a share-market veteran who had gone through the various ups and downs - plus crashes - since the early 1970s and is still around. He doesn't know too much about the technical stuff but he has one critical trait which many others don't - he can and will wait, sometimes for years. Ah, the man's stubborness! A few of his counters were delisted and wiped out. But often, there would be "something" at the end for those who have the stamina and resources to wait...

Unfortunately, I'm not him. My modal is just "pocket change" compared to his Heheh! So it has to be with call warrants. RM5,000 can only get me 1,000 units of Digi ordinary shares. "Much safer" but I have the stomach to take on higher risks. But have to always remember this when it comes to warrants - we aren't "investors" but "punters and speculators"... cowboys. And sometimes cowboys shoot their own foot, as I have:-)

Phew, I am saved. Thank God. Bought it for 0.05 in April and had been suffering ever since. Huge disappointment where it was one of the counters which didn't participate in the post-GE rally. The CL came down to as low as 0.005 a few weeks ago with time running out (expires 29 Sept. 2013). Fortunately, the start of September saw renewed interest in the mother - once it went past the ex. price (4.80), punters are interested. I'm still at a loss but it isn't crippling.

Lessons learned: Price doesn't really matter - should buy into strength, not what we perceive as "cheap". Something might be more expensive than previously but if it has strength and momentum and is going up, then it's okay. This is better than buying "cheap" and seeing it become cheaper still. Those who studied its technical charts would have seen the strength forming around early September - that was the time to buy at 0.01 and rake in a 350% profit margin today.

Another lesson is in cutting loss early. I should have gone out much earlier when the mother didn't perform and taken the 1-sen or so loss. But I procrastinated:-(

@iafx, So very true. Looking back at my investing record over the past 16 months or so, there were indeed times when I got it "just right" - the counter going up immediately after I bought. To make it perfect, it went down after I sold. But many times, it wasn't like that. The profits I made recently were from counters where I had to wait and suffer first, like MRCB and Wah Seong.

There's some correction today. Not just MRCB but broad-based. This is actually good (although those who bought very recently won't think so). But BSKL can't go up and up like the past few days. The question is, how will it be - mild or severe?

@Feimaw, your guess is as good as mine. There's just no way of knowing how it will play out in the coming days and weeks. Technical analysis charts plus some fundamental analysis do help. But in the end, it is we who have to make the decision. And this is ALWAYS a dilemma - Buy and risk seeing a counter going down. Don't buy and risk seeing it rising and us missing the boat HAHA!

But there seems to be sort of a trend with MRCB. For one thing, it is rather volatile - can change either way in an instance. That's because it's one of the speculators' favourite counters, and these fellows can either chase the price up or make it slide fast when they panic. The current price - it has gone up quite a bit from the lows of below 1.40 before the GE. Heck, I remember it was around 1.20-something a couple of months ago! Some sort of correction is always possible. But on the other hand, based on some analysts' reports, there is still upside potential.

So where do I stand? "If a counter is on an uptrend, the price doesn't really matter". A mild correction would be good. It will weed out the weak holders and offer new investors a chance to jump in.

2.00 might look far away. But remember that MRCB's "normal" price range before March 2012 when it began the slide was above 2.00. It spiralled down due to perceptions of it being a "political risk". Now that the GE is over, I believe it should slowly climb back towards 2.00. But it won't be a straight line. As usual, there will also be the "down days".

I think I'm going to cash out on my remaining -CN warrants rather than wait it out. Next week will be the last to trade before the CN is suspended (Expires 31/5/13). Sell now and I can sleep better at night. Will buy another CW or the mother if it undergoes a correction.

Heheh! I think the -CN should be "safe". Will most likely finish in the money when it expires. Dramatic turn of fortunes from "almost dead" just before the GE to a winner a week later.

There is still life yet for the CN apparently! The mother rebounded :-)