kong73-I'm going to play safe and hedge depending on how it goes tomorrow. Have to remember that at 20-something sen, every 1 sen increase is higher percentage-wise than the 50-something counters (like Alam Maritime, TH Heavy etc.) Traders might feel giddy and would then head for the exit. Maybe I'll sell half first and let time decide on the rest. At the very least, I'd lock in *something* regardless of how the counter performs in the near future. If it continues to go up, then great because I'll still have the other half.

@kong73-I'd say it has the potential to be the flavour of the week. Don't know about its present price but at its previous 0.22, what had one to lose?

One investment house had rated it as fully valued a week or so ago. That could be one reason. I don't know about its latest results because I don't follow it closely.

@Knight - Is there a JCY-CC?? I'm eyeing the other warrants but am hesitating on whether to come in right now or to wait a bit more. Come on, come one... DECIDE!

@Jjtrader - I believe 1.30 will be a very strong support. As we have seen with JCY in the past, it doesn't take much to see it rebounding and shooting back up. But, as always, *when* is the best time to come in?

Big slide here. In `normal' times, 1.38 would have been a good chance to buy and wait it out. But now I'm not sure - not after the 2nd quarter report. At the same time, the last performance wasn't bad at all in that JCY had made a profit. It's just that the previous quarter was exceptional. If it goes to the lower 1.30's, maybe it's worth a buy.

Starting to move. It finally went past the 0.22-0.225 level. Alam Maritime has gone up and perhaps it's now time for Scomi to follow.

HAHA! This is the kind of counter where one should just let it be and not follow too closely. It's like a big wheel turning, which requires a lot of time to gather momentum. But when it does, it will run.

Was wrong with my assumption that today will be a slow day for counters like IHH due to the long weekend ahead. You just can't predict what will happen within a very short period in the stockmarket with consistency. However, you might do better over a longer period of time, assuming you have gotten the correct facts and figures to base these on.

Naim ni ada musim dia, tak consistent. Kena sabar tunggu dia start balik.

Yup, I remember PEnergy very well and it was well below 1.60 at that time. But, `kedekut' that I am, had felt "it had already gone up too much". And guess what happened after that?:-( In mitigation, I needed the capital for a few other counters that also looked attractive. It's that same old situation of "no one ever has enough capital"...so many things to buy. Fortunately, what I had bought instead (MRCB and YTL Power) did okay enough:-)

Can't really say what will be next. Had a couple of good ones recently - TH Heavy and MK Land. But I do like Scomi although it seems to be stuck at the 0.215-0.225 for some time already. However, like what we have seen so often, once a counter gets moving... WOW!:-)

By the way, I've added another dimension to my investing/trading - warrants. These are things that, for YEARS, I had shunned. But I've had a change of heart after observing and doing some calculations. Then, a few guys taught me how to understand them better and given some useful tips - especially CP Teh, alntm, Passerby. After a very satisfying success with SKPetro-CA a couple of weeks ago (0.02 sen gain in two days), I've become even more interested.

RM1.00 as with most of the counters under Finance. Its current NTA (as in The Star) is 1.71

Paulina: I have that feeling too although it does look juicy with the financial projections and all. And buy on weakness is perhaps the wiser strategy. I had missed it when it was at 2.00 or so. But having seen it rise to the current level, I'm a bit uneasy about coming in at the moment. However, best of luck to those who do. As for me, I'm looking at other counters that might "do a Mah Sing" (or KNM. or Takaful etc.) in the near future.

To continue with the first part (the non-spiritual factor), based on past experience and observations, I've found the following to be generally true: if you wait "long enough", the counter will make profits. This is subject to the company having a reasonable business plus management, of course. And it doesn't have to be really rock-solid, A-Grade like Digi, Celcom - just "good enough". Plus one didn't buy at or very near its historical high.

This is something that I had seen with my father's method of investing. He has been in the stockmarket since the 70's and has seen it all; the various bulls and bears. And he's still around while many (most?) of generation are long gone after continued losses. One striking thing that I've seen and know of him - HE WAITS..., sometimes for YEARS! As with any investor, he has had counters sliding after he had bought them. But he's the kind who doesn't cut loss. He just let it be. With most of these counters (a few go bust and are delisted), they would inch their way up bit by bit. With some, it was faster. Sometimes, the gains are more than 100%.

So, back to IHH - we don't know what's the bottom for this one. Nor do we know how high it will go to. These are all for the future to decide. All that we can reasonably do is this: if we really feel it has the potential, just buy it... and wait. Wonder how it will fare in the next six months? I'm going to write it and today's price (3.12) in the diary. Six months from now, we'll revisit this comment and see for ourselves and discuss what has happened.

If one's strategy is basically governed by technical analysis, then yes, the newer shares should be avoided on the basis that there is not enough data and info `from the field' to help with the charts. But I'm one of those who are more into fundamentals, although I'd also use TA in order to try and fine-tune the initial opinions and hypotheses formed on counters based on fundamentals. When fundamentals say one thing but TA says another, I'd tend to favour the former.

But there are also other factors - the ones considered as "unscientific". That gut feeling, for instance, where based on your experience, you simply feel something is very likely to happen. I use this one also although it is not perfect (but then, neither are FA and TA or even a combination of both).

Another factor is "luck". This is something that we can't deny exist. We have seen how the best analysts and fundamentalists with all their tools and experience have been wrong on numerous occasions. But yet some seemingly unsophisticated and clueless with what we might call naive opinions make big profits from their buys! And with a few, quite consistently too. How can this be?! It's that luck factor.

To bring in a bit of religion in order to expand this factor, I'd say it's due to "Qada dan Qadar. In simple terms, what we know as "Fate" - when God Decrees something for someone, it WILL happen.

It's only fairly recently that I've been giving more thought to this one: "Wouldn't it be great if God were to aid us in this...?" Seriously. So how to get Him to do so? Well, how about by improving ourselves? For instance, in cleansing ourselves including our motives and intentions. How about if we change from focusing on "what's in it for us? to "how can I help others?" Instead of trying to get money to buy a Merc, a big house at Damansara Heights, a few kilos of gold etc., what would happen if we "try to get money so that some of it will be used to help those more unfortunate"...? Might we not be more successful?

That's a rhetorical question... because I don't know the answer. But I've been thinking about this one on and off for some time. So how would we come to know about what to do? I believe through that gut feeling, especially when our hearts `are right'.

Phew! Some of you might think I've gone weird:-) I don't know - from your straight and simple question, this winding comment just came out.

Based on what I've read from various analysts, plus with my own research too, I feel IHH has the potential to go up. But I might have to wait a while. Three to six months is a reasonable timeframe.

However, it will mean having a certain percentage of my capital being tied up, and there are some other counters that I'd also want to buy. With *anyone* (including people like Warren Buffett and Bill Gates), capital is always limited regardless of how much one has.So how?

One alternative is to buy the warrants. It's true they have an expire date, don't give out dividends and could result in significant losses should things not go one's way. But if one feels strongly about a counter's potential, that it will go up not too far in the future and wants to take a position on his belief so as to benefit when it does, warrants should be considered. With some counters, I'm taking/has taken this route.

From my reading (and I'm a relative newbie), it appears to be going sideways. The Relative Strength Index is still good although the momentum has slowed down a bit from that last upswing. Too hazy to call. I guess we'll have to wait until after Raya to see more action... either way.

Chuchu: I don't dare to answer those questions. That's because I still can't figure out a way to see the future:-P But one thing you must consider - it does look like our market is undergoing a correction, which is rather mild (at the moment). That means there's the possibility IHH might get cheaper in the near future.

Consider too the coming Raya holidays. Tomorrow will likely be quiet, so I don't see IHH and similar quality stocks going up... except maybe a sen or two here and there. The very long weekend - but it's not in Europe, US and most Asian countries. We don't know what might possibly happen during the duration when our market is closed. I'd rather not be holding onto too many positions right now.

As for the price, the one quoted by KC Loh looks great... if one can get it at that. But in my opinion, anything around 3.10 or so looks reasonable. Wait for next week first.

The transaction at 15:44:41 does point to a big fish. But I'd say there is significant retail buying too. Tomorrow - the last session before the Raya break will be interesting.

The 1.55 barrier - it's more than likely. However, it will depend on what OLH announces about OSK's future plans. For everyone's sake, I hope he does that real soon. Have to consider what might happen at the Aug 24 EGM - how will the market react should OSK not get enough votes to approve the sale? "Negatively" is more likely than positively, and I don't want to be holding OSK shares should that happen.

Yup, those two made botak `cool'. It was only later that crew-cut became fashionable, thanks to those US-military movies. And to think that long hair was once the fashion:-) I would now look at the pictures from the 70's and cringe.

At 2.74, Mudajaya is in No Man's Land for me - can neither buy more nor sell at this level. It has to go below 1.60 for me to add, and I'll only sell at more than 1.80. For now, it's just watching; hoping it will make a decisive move either way.

Kojak?

Not to mention you won't ever make a sen from the stockmarket. It's a matter of evaluating and managing risks.

The 3:1 Reward-Risk ratio is a useful and practicable method. For those who have not heard of it: consider the lowest that you think a counter might go. Then, the minimum highest you feel it will go to. The latter MUST BE at least three times the number (in sen) than the possible risk.

For example SKPetro-CA at 0.08 now. In *my opinion*, should it fall, the lowest it will go to is 0.07 (-0.01 sen). Therefore, I must honestly ask myself: Can it go to at least 0.11 sen? If I think it is "Yes", then I'm following the 3:1 Reward-Risk ratio.

Ah, now it is starting to move. Steady, steady... This will give the opportunity for those who want to leave (and making some profit in the process) and also to those who want to come in and bet that OLH will take OSK Holdings to new heights with its RHB Capital shares. A win-win situation for all.

Like you, I'm also into the warrants with momentum and volatility. SKPetro, IHH, FGV - don't have the guts to buy JCY's yet. Just to be safe, I make sure I can settle should they not go up within the contra period. But if they do, I'll gladly take a 0.01-0.015 profit. I'd rather be in a situation where I make smaller profits but having my capital freed.

At the same time, I'm also investing in this kind of warrants which (1) have a long expiry date (2) downside risk is minimal (3) have the potential of future interest and activities (4) reasonable strike price (5) company is not too `teruk' business-wise.

True. And the sellers don't look too desperate. But one can HOPE, can't he?:-) Anyway, I'm also watching it - if those 0.04 lots start disappearing, I'll pay the premium.

Agreed. The downside risk is very minimal. But currently it's not for contra players... yet.

Wilmar most probably has big positions and it hopes investors will help out by supporting the price:-)

At current palm oil prices, these companies aren't going to be able to come up with last year's profits and dividends. Although the results should be okay enough relatively, investors have been spoiled by the performances of the past couple years. They will be disappointed with the reported earnings. Palm oil prices will have to go up; otherwise, these counters will likely go on sliding.

Investors with holding power will have the chance to buy quality counters that give generous dividends. Plantations are cyclical and there will come a time when they will be kings again. But for now the prices will have to come down some more to be attractive enough.

AZRB wins a MRT job and... its price does down?! Weird.

Confectionary isn't a sexy business like oil & gas plus the fact that competition is very stiff. BUT there are parties very interested, especially when they want to add or diversify their existing holdings. And these are national-level companies with the capital. TH's involvement - notice how Ramunia came back from the brink? But it's not just TH in the equation.

Previously, I had ignored this kind of counter since I'm very much into fundamentals (with a touch of technical to try improve the results). But I know from a couple of people who have been in the market since the early 70's. They didn't tell me what exactly is going on. But I do know they have been collecting its shares over stages. They did remind me of one thing though - if you are expecting profits in the next few weeks, you are going to be disappointed. This process will require one to wait a bit.

Time will tell whether they are right. But they are putting their money where their mouths are, so I'm watching SB closely because of that.

Don't be quick too write it off. If you are in the stockmarket long enough, you will see how things turn around for various companies. I've seen `dead' companies coming back to life and then prospering. And also market darlings with seemingly strong positions that come down crashing.

Berjaya has disposed the shares in an off-market deal, which means they are not flooded into it. Guess who the buyer is? And do you think the buyer is dumb enough to put up capital for something "if there's no future plan"?

Silver Bird has also obtained a restraining order from the High Court against any move to wind it down, repossess etc. That will give it time to implement the restructuring.

Yeah, have to think of the "longer term" possibilities. It had gone lower but then 0.035 is still reasonable. The NTA is 0.11 so the mother is selling at a disount. But definitely not for contra players though. Getting to 0.050 is possible due to the warrant's remaining duration. And if there is something like CI or some other party coming in, the warrants will be lifted higher than that, of course. The downside risk appears minimal. Should get some lots and wait it out, just like with IFCA-WA.

How about the oil & gas counters? These are the ones that various analysts are enthusiastic about. SKPetro - should it go below 2.40, I think that's a reasonable buy. Another one of my favourites is Mudajaya, although maybe it should go down a bit if you want to enter. Anything below 2.60 is extremely reasonable.

But this matter about the impending General Elections is definitely not helping the market. People are very cautious and there's the possibility the market might go down when it is announced (or very near to being announced). However, I would see this as an opportunity to buy the quality stocks. Keep a list ready and your gunpowder dry. When one does his homework, is patient and with a bit of luck in the timing, he should do well.

Seller: Please la give to me at 0.085. Only then will I have a fighting chance.

Ex price 1.00, Expire 18/11/12. Mother now 0.48. Nampak macam takde harapan nak strike:-) But at 0.025... if you can get Malaysian Insider to write something like that fake E&O story (maybe like "SKPetro to take over Borneo Oil"), the warrant might shoot up to 0.16.

IHH is a counter worth holding on to. This is something that will be sought after even when the economy is not doing too well. Despite the availability of healthcare by the government, there will always be people who are willing to pay a premium for themselves and their families when it comes to health.

With IHH, it's a question of how much dividend it will pay out the next time. It is undergoing an expansion process and might want to use a big portion of the profits for this purpose. But when this is completed, I'm sure it will be more profitable and in the position to pay out more dividend.

One more positive factor: I think the price hasn't settled down yet. Remember how SKPetro took some time gyrating (with "down" in the early stages). Then it was at the 2.20-2.25 region for a while. And after that it broke through. I feel the same will happen with IHH, although it's in a different industry.

Don't forget the traditional end of the year window-dressing period. That's not too far away. Plus the Chinese New Year, although the latter is some months ahead. Often, we would shake our heads and lament "Why didn't I buy x when it was at y ??". SKPetro was at 1.95...2.00... 2.10... 2.20 (but didn't buy; only doing so when it is above 2.40??) One day real soon, many will likely feel the same: "Why didn't I buy IHH when it was at 3.16?!"

The ex price is 0.10 while the mother is currently 0.07. So, the premium is on the high side. Getting the warrants at 0.03 would be great... 0.035 still acceptable.

But one might have to wait for some time yet. For one thing, it is making a loss. And its business... it's not exactly as sexy as the oil & gas:-) So, there won't be regular news of winning this and that contract. However, if it starts making a profit, there will be interest and a 50% profit TP is definitely achievable. Better yet, if it is successful in making a share placement exercise. Putting this in my KiV folder.

Good idea about DBE-W. The expiry date is March 2016, so that's enough time for things to happen. Good things, hopefully. It has volume too. I'm going to do a bit of basic research on it and the company. Maybe there's a chance for a 50% or more profit within a year if one is patient.

Was as low as 1.65 earlier. But has recovered to 1.76 now. Still - 0.12 sen from yesterday. Is there some bad news to be announced very soon?

The most sensible opinion is CP Teh's. Yup, it's easy to get caught in the hype and excitement and jump in just because it's the flavour of the day. If one is really optimistic about Alam's future business, he should have bought earlier. The best thing to do is what CP Teh says - since so many people want it now, just give it to them:-)

Last week's rise after the ex-date was perhaps the best time to sell. It might not make sense to sell now, at this current price. Since you apparently didn't, maybe it's better to hold on and wait for a rebound. But this is just my opinion, of course, so don't make a decision based on it... because there's always the possibility it might go lower. That's the risk one has to take with any counter that is sliding.

liew: There's an alternative in its warrants where you can "have more". The one disadvantage is that they have an expiry date, of course. But if one strongly feels they are good to have and will likely go up in the near future, he would get more bang for the buck here. Unfortunately, he can't sit it out and wait like with ordinary shares should the the counter go on a downturn.

Should mention that I don't have any E&O shares nor warrants although I did think about whether to buy over the past few months (never did). My `general game plan' saved me from buying. I've made it a principle to never jump in and buy when something isn't on my list or if it has gone up "too much". This being cautious (sometime too cautious) had prevented me from making profits a number of times. But it had also saved me from big losses. I'll be sticking to this.

KC Loh: I have only contempt for those in the media who often ride the high horse, lecturing to others about "justice and fair play" and faking the impression of them being "the people's heroes", "no fear or favour". But it all boils down to personal greed. I'm betting of a few people there who are directly and actively involved in this scheme. Others must continue focusing on this matter and pressure the authorities into taking action.

By the way, should they be questioned, don't be surprised if some of their buddies use organizations like "Reporters sans borders" etc. to make as if the authorities are `cracking down on free speech, freedom of the media' and similar lines. This is how they will try to hide.

That "government sources" as quoted by Malaysian Insider - I wouldn't be surprised if they are just a figment of the imagination; plucked out of thin air.

Some people might say: "Why did these people buy? Did Malaysian Insider force them to? Did anyone put a gun to their heads."

No, Malaysian Insider didn't - It did WORSE. It induced people who trusts it too much into buying based on manipulated news which could have been easily verified first before publishing. It (or a few people inside it) most likely knew that once the volume picks up and the price goes up, momentum is created and becomes unstoppable.

This is market manipulation and Malaysian Insider, due to its failure to verify first and also the timing, is responsible.

This post here has legal details for those who want to know what *might* be pursued against Malaysian Insider:
"The Outing of the Insider Auta"
http://satdthinks.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-outing-of-insider-auta.html

The mother share is at minus 30 sen (1.60); -CA minus 10.5 sen at 0.06. The warrant is toxic but the mother share might be worth buying if it goes down a bit more.

People are anticipating OLH might announce something before the EGM on 24 Aug. A hint of what his future plans are with those RHB Capital shares and cash will be appreciated by shareholders. Going to sleep now and hope tomorrow will be the continuation of an upswing for OSK.

Phew! Quite a number of typos on my part. Sorry - in a hurry to get things for buka puasa and don't want to wait until later to type the comments. Might forget.

Gary: That is definitely worth pondering. As traders, our main focus should be on this: "How do we benefit?" It sounds selfish, but if we don't take care of ourselves and our interests, who will? The SC? Banks? Political parties? Nope - *we* do it and protect ourselves.

Most likely the E&O will duffer a drop next Monday. Until what level? If it is near its previous price of around 1.50 or so, maybe that's a fair price to comer in. That judicial review - it might well turn to the minorities' favour.