Despite the risks, this counter has been on my mind for the past few days. The Ampang Line contract is too big to ignore. Yes, it will take a few years before the earnings kick in; and there's always the possibility of the opposition `kacau daun' enough and have it reviewed. Investors are also uneasy about the looming GE, and GKent is definitely a political risk.

My itch hands - gonna touch the bee's backside. Hopefully the sting will be `syiok' Heheh!

From my understanding, you *must* hold it on that date and time...at least.

By the way, I hope you understand the implications and risks when counters pay exceptional dividends? There's a very strong possibility that "many" (using a vague term because we will never know until the event actually happens) will immediately sell once they have locked in the dividends. It will be a classic supply and demand situation - if shareholders keep giving at the buyers' quotes, the price will fall, of course. The key question is this: What will the price be after the ex date? We can speculate, guess and make various arguments and conjectures right now. However, we will only know for sure on that day itself.

No, that's the par value. Sometimes, some companies might use that as the basis for the dividend; e.g. "20% per share", which will be 0.10 sen. In TGOFFS' dividend, it is mentioning "x sen per share". It doesn't matter what the par value is, nor at what price one buys it at.

It's nowhere near Patimas' problems (yet). However, Hubline ni jenis kaunter LIAT - you will have to sweat blood to extract a 0.005 sen profit!

Erm, yeah; same answer as choonliang1987, plus add some more really bad things:-) But, as with his question: what's the connection of this analogy with the situation concerning GKent's shares?

Just as it says - you will get *at least* 0.35 sen per share. It will be as much as 0.44, depending on how many of its A and B warrants are exercised (or not exercised). The quantum will be announced tomorrow. My guess is the dividend will be 0.39 sen.

The -CC is at a discount. The exercise price of 5.92 - that's quite a long way to go. But then again, a warrant speculator isn't going to wait that long. It's at 0.09 now - I have t0 make a decision fast. Buy now or wait and see tomorrow?

Well, well... it has! richman, what's going on? Is there something we should know about?

Hustle: That's the part that I'm a bit uneasy with. Even with such a huge announcement, the price and volume has dropped from yesterday's, as if nothing has happened! What, then, will be the catalyst for it to go up - that the government has decided to cancel Gamuda-MMC's MRT project and give to George Kent?:-) I can't think of what else will stimulate investors' interest.

FINALLY! This suit was a long time coming. But I guess it's better to be thorough in the preparations than to rush it.

I second that:-) It's rather quiet at the moment but I believe its day will come. I'm banking on it reporting a better second quarter. That should get the price above the 0.10 par, plus see the warrant gaining too. Not worrying too much about the latter - Feb 2016 is still a comfortable buffer.

If that's the case you have pleaded, then the jury's or judge's verdict is a no-brainer.

That means one has to come in early when the price and volume are so-so. But one will have to be a strong holder - just ignore the daily price moves and wait for the next upswing. Those who had bought last week at 1.00 and were quick to sell yesterday had played it well.

It has been awarded the Ampang Line contract but yet there's not much volume today!? Why isn't the market viewing this as something favourable to GKent?

True, PKR especially has made this an issue. But I'd say this alone wouldn't be enough to scuttle the deal. After all, it has been officially announced with the Letter of Intent and all issued. Even in a worst case situation where Prasarana were to cancel this contract, I think GKent will be compensated. At 1.05, that's not too far from its normal previous price. The drop is most likely due to speculators who had jumped in earlier yesterday, cutting loss. I believe the TP of 1.22 might still be valid.

sheridansulik has been right with his info on TH Heavy plus a few other counters before. Even if I didn't take any action on these (although I did on TH heavy), I definitely take note of them; trying to figure out a way to benefit and take advantage of. Some people here (passerby included) are an asset to this group with their information, opinions and wisdom. And that's why I spend more time here than at Facebook nowadays:-)

Noted. Will tread with caution. For now, I will just focus on the warrants and mother of a few selected companies that include SKPetro (been following this since Day One) and IHH. And my TP will mostly be just 0.01 each time. If a profit comes in within the contra period (like this one), I'm just going to take the profit and walk away.

passerby: That's the name I've been searching for - Alan Voon! He used to write weekly articles in a newspaper about warrants some years ago. Thanks very much. There are other experts in warrants, of course, but I'm more interested in those who specialise in BSKL.

It's a newly-issued call warrant.
Reference Price: 2.85
Ratio 4:1
Exercise Price: 3.42
Expiry Date: 29/3/2013
You can get more information here: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/structured-warrants/1022317

-CM closes at 0.085; Mother: 3.15 -- That means the mother must add 0.27 sen to reach the exercise price. So, based on the 4:1 ratio, one will be paying 0.34 sen based on the ratio. Have to confirm it with those who really understand call warrants. But from my own thinking and comparison, I feel the CM is a bit over-priced at this very moment. What do you guys think?

While we wait for things to be better for Alam, there are other oil & gas counters that seem to be more promising. Scomi Marine and Scomi Group, for instance, look better right now.

sugar_crackers: But be prepared to settle and wait a bit. Contra trades might not work with this counter although sometimes you would get lucky. Like today, with its good volume. This is a counter that will reward those who are patient.

By the way, I had just recommended it to my father. Now, he's a lot more experienced than I am - been in the market since the early 1970's and has survived all the bad times. But I have a few advantages over him and one is the information and opinions at this group:-) Among my father's advantages: he has the staying power... can wait for YEARS for a counter to finally go his way.

@weechin53: Don't know why it is sliding. Is it because major shareholders are selling? Technically, it seems to be in a downtrend. It may look "cheap, reasonable" but there's the possibility it might go lower. I think it's better to buy later after this downtrend is checked. Doesn't really matter if it will be a few sen more expensive - if it's going up, then we will still gain.

This successful trade has boosted my confidence in call warrants. From my previous zero interest in warrants (because I didn't really understand them until you, CP Teh etc. had explained in this thread and at BIMB-HA), I'm now allocating a certain percentage of my capital to invest/trade in them.

Doing research on the freshly-minted IHH call warrants now. IHH-CM seems to have the volume. But I feel the current premium is too high. Here are the figures:
Reference Price: 2.85
Ratio 4:1
Exercise Price: 3.42
-CM now at 0.09 Mother: 3.16 -- That means it must add 0.26 sen to reach the mother price. So, based on what you had taught me: 0.09 x 4 = 0.36 sen. That means the CM are rather over-priced, right?

And it's thanks to *you*, alntm. Went in after I understood what this call warrant is; the risks and the potentials.

Looks like the mother share has crossed the -CA's exercise price of 2.48.

Sounds something like the financial accounting irregularities as had happened to Silver Bird. http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/8/1/business/20120801091946&sec=business

I haven't looked at its financials yet so I don't have an idea what its situation is. As richman has said, there's the *possibility* it might be suspended. On the other hand, if it manages to get an extension or whatever concession from BSKL (or is it the Securities Commission), it might see a rebound.

You will have to evaluate the reward-to-risk ratio: if you are comfortable, there might be some money to be made. If not, it's better to stay out. After all, there are HUNDREDS of other companies on BSKL.

That's the problem with India that is holding it back. It has the numbers, with its huge young population, generally educated workers, good working knowledge of English, independent judiciary etc. But their infrastructure is rather poor and there's not much money since most is spent on subsidies.

Then there are the irresponsible politicians who want to project themselves as `people's hero' and `defenders of the people' and instigating others. Previously (and now thankfully dormant) were the religious bigots who had instigated chilling riots and killings. Now many politicians are targeting businesses, like Mudajaya's project. It's like wanting to have your cake and eat it too... wanting power but expecting others to sacrifice for them.

But I believe this matter will be resolved. And it will be thanks to India's educated population. With Mudajaya, this is one of the very few counters that I'm most comfortable with. If it goes lower, then I see it as an opportunity to buy some more. One day, when Mudajaya reaches the level that it should rightly be, we will look back to today and question ourselves: "To think that it was once at 2.50 and below... but I didn't buy!".

Can't. I'm a sucker for that kind of movies and stories... of King Arthur and the days of the European knights.

How to sleep when the *possibility* of making money is so enthralling?:-P This BSKL-centric investors' group is the most vibrant - a lot of opinions (whether they are right or wrong is another matter), information, wisdom. Unlike those pre-internet days, at least now we don't fly blind.

jtpc2006: It seems that only Jupiter has come up with a TP. And Jupiter is; well... Would be good to see other analysts' opinions. But, I don't think the project has been factored in. It would be irresponsible to do so without it being confirmed first. But they probably had factored in "the possibility of winning, and hence the possible positive sentiments towards it". It's a new ball game now that it has actually won the project.

By the way, I'm still looking to jump in. Was disappointed it went up too much at the start. My `penakut' and `kedekut' trait saved me this time:-) But I will come in when the heart says ok.

I don't know about the political angle. Right now I'm just trying to figure out whether I can make a few ringgit from this. Let's see how it goes tomorrow. If the price is right and the sentiments are good (with volume), there might be an opportunity here.

So the request for suspension wasn't to announce something good then? And many had jumped in to buy on the assumption it was going to declare a big contract or something of this nature.

Wow! You are really brave... unlike me. Must salute you for that. There's that saying of "Fortune favours the brave", and it will for you if the counter moves your way. Good luck. I wouldn't really be surprised should you strike it big with this kind of boldness. As for me, I have to stick to my own gameplan and fundamentals-based system - suitable for the `penakut' type:-)

This will create a storm, that's for sure. from what I had read, including as reported in Business Times, it is said that George Kent doesn't have the capability to undertake the project. Even those people in Umno aren't happy with GKent getting it.

Let's just let the storm and accusations come. For us, the more important thing is this: How can we benefit from it? Today, it added just three sen with so-so volume, which means that only a few insiders had bought. So, I believe it will see much heavier volume tomorrow. The question is, at which price should we come in at?

"Prasarana awards EPCC contract for Ampang LRT line to George Kent".

Kartinie: Why menyesal?? If your buys are in that price range, you are still doing okay. I don't know what your strategy is; whether it's contra or to settle. But whatever, I hope you have an exit plan i.e. in selling when it reaches a certain price. Or, are you with the "Let's see how it goes"...? Although some would frown on the latter, you have to admit it *is* a valid strategy. I know of many people who managed to stretch their profits almost to the maximum by not exiting early.

Yes, this helps a lot. Okay, now I understand it better. I've not been interested in warrants before due to their having expiry dates (this beats the case against "buy and hold"). But it's obvious that one can make some serious money if he knows what he's doing. And having a certain percentage of luck too, of course. It also looks like a cheaper way to bet into counters that we feel will go up but which are a bit too costly to buy. However, it's obvious that one must do some homework first with the conversions and all.

pirate99 - I'm keeping an eye on Alam too. And Scomi Group. The worst could be over for them. At their current price, I feel the downside risk is low. But, as always, the key is in timing; and this one is the toughest of all.

This is very encouraging. I think I'm going to focus more on these below 1.00 counters. Better yet those around 0.50 or below. Have to do research on those counters that have been beaten down but which are now improving business-wise. I'm sure there are a few promising ones - counters that have the potential to be like TH Heavy and MK Land. Any suggestions, guys?

Hwa Tai - now this beats my KLK `loss' many times over. But at least you made a 100% gain. In my case, it was for only a miserable 30 sen or so. And guess what? I got discourage with the sideways-trending market and went out... and a few months later the great bull run started. Each time the market set a new high, I would think: "There will be a big correction soon... better to stay out." But it went up and up and up until *eventually* I was `right'. I had totally missed that great bull run.

But at least I didn't come in when it was at its end. As you know, many people did. Those first-timers who were really late suffered the most, coming in at the worst of times. Many who had made big profits earlier on later lost all that - and more. Especially when they tried to average down but only to see the prices going lower and lower still.

Anyway, I hope this time will be different for me. Have to adapt to the current situation. For one thing, "buy and hold" might not be the best strategy with most counters given the tendency towards volatility. For me, it's now "hit and run" - if there's profit, I'm taking it and move on to something else.

By the way, it's also the same with those counters which we did buy, held on for a while and then sold after thinking it's going to be dormant or might go down. And then it shoots up! Yeah, I know that feeling.

Among the worst for me was KLK; sold at around 3.80 or so in the early 90's. And then it went to... 24.00. This really tormented me; hated myself for `being so stupid'. But how was I to know? So, every time this happens to me, I would sit down to psyche myself into accepting it... and letting it go. Only then can I live for today and look to the future.

[KC Loh: "considered miss opportunity! you get plenty of those! move on bro!"] --- Very true. That's how it goes in the stock market. This is unavoidable and will happen to us again and again - those "missed buses" which we had done research on and which we had a good feeling about. BUT WHICH WE DIDN'T BUY; only to see it going up. To make it worse, we had bought something else instead, which turned out to be a dud.

I used to beat myself up previously whenever this happened... feeling angry and disgusted with myself. And what did I get from this? NOTHING!... except heartache and low self-esteem. I decided that it's better to look forward instead of the negative response of dwelling on it. "Tak ada rezeki... it wasn't fated to be for me."

Fact Number 1: We don't know the future... until it happens. There will be other buses coming our way - it's better to look out for these instead of tormenting ourselves with something that we can do nothing about.

kartinie musa: You are a newbie and you've bought... CYBERT!!? Wow! You might well end up with a profit, of course, if things move your way. However, I hope you know what's going on with it? This is a highly volatile counter which speculators and sharks had pushed to 2.00 and then unloaded, resulting in many people getting burnt.

But don't panic after reading what I have said and immediately selling it tomorrow. At least you didn't buy earlier when it was dropping like a rock. It has now somewhat stabilised, so the risk is much lower. There *is* something called "beginner's luck", and for all you know, speculators might jump in to play it and push the price higher... and you will be thrilled:-) Good luck!

And one other question: Since the exercise price is 2.48 (only 4 sen away), I assume the CA will become more valuable (go higher) when the mother's price surpasses that, right?

alantm: Oh, that's how the 2:1 ratio works then. Thanks. So that means SKPetro will have to go up at least another 0.21 sen to reach that price. And that's not including the expenses. So I'm wondering, what's the logic in buying these call warrants? Why not just buy the mother share at 2.44 instead of the CA?

Can someone knowledgeable in call warrants clarify this please? The -CA's exercise price is 2.48, ratio 2, expires 4/3/13. SKPetro's closing price today is 2.44 while the CA is 0.085. So, assuming that the CA remains the same at 0.085, what does the mother's price need to be before one breaks even on the expiry date - is it 2.565?

Its day will come, and I think it might not be too far away. Oil & Gas counters are the performing counters right now. Petra Energy, Perdana, Wah Seong, SK Petro and most recently TH Heavy have seen rises. Alam Maritim is near the year's low so, provided its next quarter report isn't too bad, promises an upswing.

It went up 25 sen last week, with 11 sen on Friday alone. For a 1.00-plus counter, this is a lot. There surely has to be some correction. But despite the fall today, this counter is still promising. For one thing, it is below the IPO price.

Donpazac: I understand your situation very well. If we are in the market long enough, we *will* come across this situation; of the `savvy' practice of cutting loss... and then seeing it bounce back to our buying price and up.

Yes, cutting loss at a certain percentage is sensible, especially if one is a short-term trader. But only time will tell if it's the better decision. The problem is that we don't know the future.

From my experience, the most important thing to do is in analysing the company - if it is good, at a reasonable PE and pays regular dividends, then it's worth *investing* in (as opposed to speculating). I wouldn't sell to cut loss just because it falls. Instead, I would settle, dig in and wait. Sooner rather than later, it will go back up.

My most recent trades of this: YTL Power, bought at 1.72 in April. It went down and down; right until 1.50 or so. If I follow the 10% cut loss rule, I would have sold it at 1.55 and taken a hit of at least RM170 per lot (1,000). But I didn't. Since I'm convinced this is a good company, instead of selling, I not only held on but also bought more lots at this price. And sure enough, it climbed back up. So, instead of making a loss had I followed the cut loss `rule', I made a profit.

This is not to say the rule isn't good - it is. BUT one has to adapt and modify. It might serve us better not to religiously stick to something while ignoring that other `unscientific' asset - our gut feeling.

KC Loh - So you are a fund manager then? No wonder your comments and analysis are deep and thoughtful; like CP Teh and a few other people here. Glad to have you around.

This counter seems to have its share of fans despite the share price sliding over the past few weeks. Interesting. I agree with KC Loh about the worries over this company's financial health over the longer term. However, there might be the chance of making a few ringgit should there be a rebound. I'm going to watch its movements, if only because it has its strong supporters:-)