Ahmad Cendana

cendana287 | Joined since 2012-03-14

Investing Experience Intermediate
Risk Profile Moderate

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General

2012-08-29 14:11 | Report Abuse

I don't know what maybank2u online looks like, But if it's similar to AffinTrade that I use (as with others using the N2N system), it's probably similar to the asterisk (*) found with some counters. In that case, you only need highlight the counter and click on the asterisk to see a list of the titles of the announcements and follow the link. But someone using mayban2u will have to confirm whether it is indeed the same as N2N.

Alternatively, you can check at the BSKL website on a counter's latest announcements: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/ Type the name at "Get Code" and then "Announcements" from the pop-up window.

General

2012-08-29 13:51 | Report Abuse

tony - pirate99 is right and hence my caution. There are people who feel overwhelmed by the market. So many counters; some not going anywhere, some losing, and some with that exiting trait which all of us want - going up and up all the time. "So which one will be the next one to give that thrill?"

Nothing wrong with looking for ideas and answers because that's what we all do. Including me, of course (in fact, the comments here influence my decisions more that those by the investment banks). BUT these comments and theories should be accepted and used only as a part of the individual's selections and decisions. Unfortunately, some might see them as "tips", which they are not. At least not with any of my comments. These are just mere opinions and speculations.

This isn't being modest or humble, but the truth - I have been wrong so many times before (but I've been right too...just like most people). What I'm concerned about is that sometimes my comments sound exuberant and confident and those who are new might be led into thinking these are also "correct". That's why we have to keep reminding the people here to be cautious and not be too influenced by the comments here; not just by me but others too.

General

2012-08-29 12:31 | Report Abuse

SB - a par 50 sen company, but at its current price, it has now turned into something like a warrant:-)

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2012-08-29 12:22 | Report Abuse

Guys, take note that I'm NOT recommending Silver Bird. Definitely not. Especially if one is relatively new in the market. Don't want his experience to turn sour with these high risks investments - no, it's "speculating", but certainly not gambling and lamenting "This is all because I listened to that nut Mat Cendana and his crazy strategies!":-) But I know some people can see my logic, although they might not be confident the speculating will turn out this way.

General

2012-08-29 12:17 | Report Abuse

Ching Yin Carrot Loh - Don't think too much about the dark clouds and roadblocks. It's something that happens/will happen to all of us when we enter the stockmarket. In these situations, try to be objective and see what our `mistakes' or the factors beyond our control are (same with when we made gains - must analyse on how and why we succeeded and try to replicate it).

As always, have patience. Often, this turns losing trades into winning ones - the "time factor". I learn this from my father, who has been in the market since the 70's...and still around when many others have long quitted. I've thought about it and his most crucial strength is his ability to sit and wait. And wait some more, sometimes for years! The magic of time would rescue most of his previously losing counters, with some of them giving high proit margins (this is one person who won't take a mere 10% profit.. unlike me Heheh!)

General

2012-08-29 11:59 | Report Abuse

Silver Bird - What richman says must be considered. However, I'm going to make a high risk calculated investment with it. But please don't follow me if you aren't prepared to (1) wait (2) face the real possibility of losing all of most of your capital.

I have allocated 10% of my capital for this category of counters - the very high risk. But not all 10% are in just one counter though. Due to its nature, the *potential* for profits MUST be at least 50%. Although it looks foolhardy (and I know time might prove *it is*), with Silver Bird I'm betting on this factor: its restructuring. It was recently granted 60 (or is it 90?) days by the High Court to go about this without being harassed too much by its MANY creditors. I know for a fact that the management is busily undertaking this since a few months ago.

Here is thinking and the calculated risk: at 0.08 sen now, what's the worst that could happen? Answer: It gets suspended, delisted and winded up. If all three happens, then my 8 sen is `hangus'.

But what if the restructuring plan is viable and approved by the High Court and market authorities? Will it not go (much?) higher than 8 sen? DEFINITELY. How much higher? I don't know because we'll have to get to that stage first. Only after the restructure, and with a better future than now (not too difficult, because it is now at rock bottom) would the management consider any bids for it.

The second-worse case scenario is this: SB is forced to be sold in a fire sale. In that case, I'll have to salvage what I can - the 8 sen might turn into 2 sen. But I'm prepared to take the loss because I know what I'm getting into.

Let's use this as a project and see what happens. My immediate timeframe is that something should happen by the end of this year (4 months)... and I'm targeting *at least* a 50% gain. If my calculated risk works, even Bernie Madoff will be jealous:-P Let's see how it goes.

General

2012-08-29 11:37 | Report Abuse

Am also thinking about DBE and its warrant. Since the mother is only 3 sen more, why not this one instead of the warrant? For one thing, there won't be any premium to pay. Plus no expiration date, which means I can wait 100 years for it to go to RM7.00:-)

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2012-08-29 11:34 | Report Abuse

Another one of those "If only I had..." - should have bolder and followed Namoyaki at the start. Even if it were to go down, there would be comfort in knowing that even a pro had also gotten it wrong. Too late. Will just have to wait for other opportunities.

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2012-08-29 10:27 | Report Abuse

As always, I don't dare to answer:-) It depends on how satisfied you are with the profit% that you get at this price. This is always the dilemma, ya, when a counter goes back lower an initial high price. One will always be thinking "I should have sold earlier". If you do sell, be prepared for this possibility (happens to all of us) - it then goes back up! So irritating!

But based on some analysts' TP, there seems to be potential for an upswing to 3.70 again. However, "when" is always the question.

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2012-08-29 10:10 | Report Abuse

For me, the regret is in not buying Affin when it was stuck at below 3.00 a few months ago. Should have taken the cue from Bank Islam's rise and rise at that time - sooner or later, Affin and other laggards would tend to follow.

General

2012-08-29 10:07 | Report Abuse

Got my TP for IFCA-WA, thanks to richman's comment some weeks ago. It's not exciting but the number one goal is to make some money:-) Am considering mpay-w now.

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2012-08-29 09:13 | Report Abuse

Too scary for me. I'll just follow JCY:-)

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2012-08-29 09:07 | Report Abuse

Or Greece political party. But the price!...

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2012-08-28 23:29 | Report Abuse

Yup, seems to be on a downtrend at the moment so your strategy is prudent. And the positive sign might come sooner than many would expect. Remember that this is JCY, and its movements (often upwards) in the past had confounded many investors and analysts too. Even when TA charts show it on a downtrend, it would somehow go up! That's the power of traders and speculators on contra mode - they don't care about technicals. Or fundamentals for that matter.

There are positives in the last few sessions, sort of. For one thing, it didn't drop below 1.00 as some had thought. It made two mild rebounds to 1.18 or so but went down again when many took quick profits or cut loss. I think it will be around 1.02-1.20 in the immediate future. Just a speculative guess, without any charts or whatever to show:-)

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2012-08-28 23:03 | Report Abuse

weiboy90 - If you study the various counters in BSKL, or anywhere for that matter, they'd show very noticeable ups and downs over the months and years. High-priced favourites might stay that way for some time. Then they would decline, going lower and lower, and most people forget about them. Often, they would start to rise up again and many would be kicking themselves about not buying when they were much cheaper. This regret happens every day in the market:-)

I don't know about TGOFFS but similar counters should serve as a lesson. TH Heavy, for instance - most people had qualms about buying when it was at 0.40 sen just some weeks ago. But now they are rushing to buy it at... 0.54 sen. Scomi - ignored when it was languishing at 0.22 just two weeks ago... and now people rush to buy at 0.29. But that's how it goes. The best that we can do is to try and anticipate, and be a bit ahead of the crowd when it rises again. Doesn't look like it right now, but its time will come. When and what price, no one knows yet.

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2012-08-28 22:33 | Report Abuse

This is one of the counters worth keeping tabs on. It is finding its equilibrium after the big special dividend and is undergoing a correction. But sooner or later, it will form a base. Things are quiet for the time being, business-wise. However, with oil & gas counters, there are bound to be announcements of this or that contract being won in the near future. For now, watch first for signs of volume.

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2012-08-28 22:19 | Report Abuse

@lawyen - Agree with kcfan. Hopefully we won't have any use for these ourselves. But would be great if `health tourists' were to fully utilise them:-) The "stay healthy" part is wisdom.

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2012-08-28 21:13 | Report Abuse

Yeah, that's one of the minus about IHH right now. But some investors see it this way - it's a good thing that they are using the profits to pay for the expansion organically instead of taking too much debt. Anyway, I think it wouldn't be too long before it is completed. With the added beds, there will be more revenue and hopefully profits.

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2012-08-28 20:33 | Report Abuse

The EPS is within what is expected of a 3.00-plus counter. But in IHH's case, there is a premium to it in that it is a relatively recession-proof (to an extent) company that wouldn't be affected by things like the general election. "Dividends and stability" - this is what it offers to investors (although I'm `just' a trader).

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2012-08-28 19:43 | Report Abuse

The Star's SMS Alert: "IHH Healthcare Q2 earnings jump 426% to RM403.5m from RM76.6m yr ago, revenue up RM230% to RM2.697m. H1 earnings up 195% to RM527.7m".

Very impressive. But will have to see more details on how these numbers came about. Anyway, after setting up a base around 3.11-15 for the past week, hope IHH will start going up.

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2012-08-27 14:03 | Report Abuse

The sub-50 sen oil & gas counters have done well, including Scomi and TH Heavy. Guys, what are the similar counters in this price range that are still quiet? Maybe we should investigate and keep tabs on their movement.

I know of one - SILK at 0.38. It is better known for the toll concession. However, based on its annual reports, it has diversified where two-thirds of its turnover now comes from O&G... through its vessels. The problem with it is its debts, which eat up most of the profits. But having a toll concession - this is attractive. It also doesn't have too many shares outstanding.

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2012-08-27 13:34 | Report Abuse

Yeah, a bit too fast for a 20-something counter and locking in some profit might be prudent. Wouldn't be surprised if there is a bit of correction to it. But then, it was higher than 0.30 before the long slide, so I'm not taking all the money off the table yet.

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2012-08-26 23:37 | Report Abuse

2/8/12 when NEXTNET was at 0.10, TA says "Sell". Guess what happened after that?:-) Ah, these `analysts' - if one follows them 100%, one would either lose money or forsake the chance to make it. Not that we should ignore their reports - please read them but make our own decisions. After all, it's OUR money.

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2012-08-26 20:35 | Report Abuse

@jacklintan - Just because it has the potential to go to 1.40 doesn't mean that it will. Even if it does get to that price, it won't be a straight line. For the moment, it is obviously on a downtrend and it is prudent not to go against this. Even when it looks "cheap". As we have seen with various counters, cheap often becomes cheaper.

All these new analyses by the various investments won't help sentiments either. By the way, it wasn't too long ago that they were praising it to the sky. I think I remember one analyst espousing JCY as "the best counter in the universe" or something to this effect. I'll try to find it and post the link here.

At the same time, don't totally discount it yet. Be cautious but also watch out for signs of a mild rebound. I'll be eyeing the warrants this time. Right now their premiums aren't too high as previously, so there is potential for some money here when there's an upswing momentum. Plus the potential to lose some money too, of course:-)

But whatever, it will be interesting to see how it fares next week. Remember the T+3 which KC Loh mentioned. There might be many lots from Wednesday and Thursday which traders had held on to, hoping for a rebound. But time is running out and their remisiers will do the selling on Monday and Tuesday if these aren't picked up. However, if the price generally holds, then this will be JCY's new support line for a base to form.

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2012-08-24 21:24 | Report Abuse

kcfan - Yeah, that is the dampener and the factor that had started the sharp fall. Investors are led to the logical conclusion: "If the last quarter has reported lower profits, and with demand for HDD parts declining, then the next quarter will be even less profitable. A loss is possible."

Makes a lot of sense and the market is factoring in what it expects of the future quarter. But I feel the market price correction has been too sharp. Then there's the panic selling factor. As such, regardless of the possible lower profits (or even loss), JCY's price is a bit on the low side. This creates the *possibility* the market will rectify the discrepancy in the near future. Okay, 2.00 may no longer be a valid TP. But what about something lower... like 1.40 or so?

And as we have seen in the past few months, JCY is a very popular counter among traders. True, many had lost money due to this fall. But I believe they will still keep tabs on it, and jumping back in when they feel it could be on an upswing again.

Just my opinion and personal speculating without any technical or whatever analysis to show. So don't bet your house on it:-)

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2012-08-24 20:08 | Report Abuse

That's the power of warrants, regardless of Call or Put. They are a great alternative to the mother shares, giving a lot more bang for the buck. In many cases, one can just forget about dividends - if we can make more from dividend-less warrants, then why not? But there has to be balance and some caution must be practised because they can be really painful should the market move against you. And you can't wait it out as with ordinary shares due to the expiry dates.

I'm hoping there will be opportunities to make a few ringgit from the JCY call warrants next week (I think the likelihood of it going up is greater than sliding down. Even if the latter is the case, 1.00 is a very very strong psychological support). The weekend will give us time to do some research and thinking about the various warrants. If there's even a modest rebound to the higher teens or 20's, they should easily add 2 or so sen (for the ones price above 10 sen). 0.005-0.015 for the sub-10 sen. But with warrants, you'll have to be decisive and fast in making buy and sell decisions.

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2012-08-24 18:56 | Report Abuse

@Genius GS - *If only* (one of the oft-repeated phrase among traders in the stock market)... you had made that comment earlier. I had totally forgotten about the HA. But it's also because put options don't seem to be understood by most traders. That was one great opportunity. Would have easily gotten it at 0.06.

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2012-08-24 18:46 | Report Abuse

There's another strategy that I'd like to share here. It's a good idea to have 20% of your capital unused in preparation for "Lehman Moments" or abnormal events and try to capitalise.

These don't have to be too earth-shaking; just events where quality counters (or those with potential) suddenly drop due to market sentiments. The JCY slide qualifies because the steep drop isn't really because of business fundamentals (as far as I know). Did it report a big loss like MAS? No, it only reported a lower profit than the previous exceptional quarter... and the price got hammered! When there's panic selling, it's reasonable to expect the price to recover in the not-too-distant future.

This is where the 20% `emergency use only' capital comes in. By having it, one will have a lot more confident. And the luxury of waiting if things don't immediately go your way. Can't do this if it's a contra trade.

Even if you don't have your own cash, an undertaking from someone who trusts you is good enough - wife, parents, siblings etc... people who won't break your legs or throw red paint at your house should you be a bit late to repay. Make it clear that it is short-term borrowing (of 6 months or so)... and repay within the period because it affects relationships and our spiritual self.

Just to make it fair and sweet for your creditors, give them 20% of whatever profits that you eventually make. That's extremely reasonable because *you* will be taking all the risks while they will get back their original sum, at the very least.

Based on experience and observations, these quality counters will eventually go up. But you will have to force yourself to be brave and buy when most people are selling and fearful.

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2012-08-24 18:26 | Report Abuse

@rookiemy - Actually, you had indirectly helped. Your opinion last night had strengthened my own thinking about JCY. By the way, I still feel a TP of 1.40 is achievable.

So why did I run at 1.17 and not stick to my belief? That's because I have a sort of `Standing Order' - if a counter goes up within the contra period, I take it as a sign to take the profit, small that it may seemingly be (11 sen gross). I've had those moments before where profits slipped away because I was hoping for more. Oh, I'd wait if a counter has been picked up. But not with this particular trade.

My second rule is to try and sell on Fridays whenever there is a profit. The weekend - we don't know what can happen in the duration. Remember the JP Morgan `London Whale' in May? It was on Friday/early Saturday morning Malaysian time, and it affected sentiments everywhere. Another thing - JCY is volatile like a firecracker. I'd rather throw it after seeing the fuse burning than to wait for the last-split-second for the trills.

But to quote "The Terminator": I'll be back... should it slide below 1.10. Or when it's clearly going up. This isn't Cybert - JCY is a profitable company that gives dividends.

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2012-08-24 16:00 | Report Abuse

Goodbye too. Had thought about picking up but since it went up immediately today, I'm not going to push my luck. A small gain is better than getting my capital stuck. But best of luck to all of you - I hope it goes up further so that those who got stuck can unfree themselves. Or at least significantly lessen your losses.

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2012-08-24 15:41 | Report Abuse

Seems to be rebounding. Steady steady... If the momentum starts, it will rise up to a more reasonable level.

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2012-08-24 12:57 | Report Abuse

You'll have to pay a bit of a premium coming in now. But I'd say it's definitely not too late. Buy on weakness...maybe early next week. I think it is building up a base for the next push upwards <--[helping to promote this counter so that it will go up further and give me more profit:-) ]

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2012-08-24 12:07 | Report Abuse

Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to work like that with many investors here. I've seen the HA going up when the mother rises. That's crazy!:-)

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2012-08-24 10:40 | Report Abuse

Obviously on a downtrend after those exciting weeks when it climbed up from 1.55 or so to almost 1.90. Every counter has to undergo this cycle. This is also one of those "political risk" counters. Let it undergo the correction first. Then we buy and wait.

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2012-08-24 10:37 | Report Abuse

Reported at BSKL site yesterday:
From RM799,000 in preceding quarter to RM1,267,000 in last one on better revenue. Earnings per share doubled to 0.4 sen.

Although this isn't spectacular by any standards, it is nonetheless very reasonable and encouraging. This is the "slow and steady" kind of counter which requires patience. But whatever, it deserves to be priced significantly higher than its par of 10 sen. After all, this is a profitable company. The same can't be said of many ACE counters.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1044457

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2012-08-24 09:15 | Report Abuse

Very good volume today. Where's @richman? Are they reporting a better quarter?

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2012-08-24 09:11 | Report Abuse

@richman - The big wheel is turning:-)

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2012-08-24 08:49 | Report Abuse

Steven: Thanks very much. This very information in one screen has helped a lot. Usually, I'd be with a calculator with all those dreary ratios and whatnots.

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2012-08-24 00:26 | Report Abuse

This message comes out: "This content is currently unavailable":-(

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2012-08-23 23:56 | Report Abuse

@rookiemy - Your analysis makes sense. I think JCY is grossly oversold and a rebound, regardless of whether it is mild or better - looks more likely than it sliding down much further. Don't forget that the last quarter didn't report a loss but actually profits. It's just that it wasn't as good as the previous one. Remember, too, that it's a vast improvement of the y-o-y quarter which was a loss. It's possible the next quarter might report even lower profits. But financial year-wise, its balance sheet will still be in the plus.

As for its operations, I'm sure management is already taking steps to ensure that its lines and workforce are efficiently used, taking into account the projected lower demand for HDD parts. I don't think that it will be lower than 1.00... unless if major shareholders dump their shares.

At this level, JCY is worth the risk and I think 1.40 is achievable although I might have to wait until the end of the year or a bit later. Too bad I didn't come in at Namoyaki's price of 1.08. But at least I have the option of first seeing what happens tomorrow:-)

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2012-08-23 23:29 | Report Abuse

prime57 - That's tough to answer and it's also dangerous to give opinions which people might act on... unless if it turn out to be correct:-) Only time will tell with this one. So, remember - this is just my opinion, and I've been wrong so many times before.

If it's of any comfort, I'm actually eyeing the warrants, including CI. I have to check in The Edge tomorrow about its present premium (or discount). One good thing about it is the strike price of 1.25 which isn't that far away. If there's a rebound, that will be easily reached.

But the minus are: 1) expires 17/12/12, which is less than 4 months away. 2) Mother share is in a downtrend 3) Possibility of mother and warrants going down further

Your buy price at 0.21 - perhaps it's a bit late to cut loss. In that case, you will have to try and make the best out of the situation. Sell now and you *will* make a significant loss. But the worst is *probably* over - even if it slides further, it will not be like the panic we have seen today. So, if you hold on, and if there's a rebound, the loss will be significantly less. Consider averaging down by buying at the lower price. BUT - and I emphasise this - do this only when it is going up. If not, you will end up with TWO buys with losses (instead of just one).

This is just my opinion, given in good faith.

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2012-08-23 21:44 | Report Abuse

Some years ago, "buy and hold" might be the better way to go. It still is with some counters - the telcos especially. But the market has become volatile since a few years ago. There are still opportunities but prices now tend to slide back after rising. I've changed my general strategy to this one also - hit and run. When there's a profit, rather than wait for more, I'd tend to take it and move on to the next potential. Or have the capital at the sidelines while waiting for something which I think has the 3:1 Reward-Risk factor.

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2012-08-23 21:37 | Report Abuse

Despite the sharp drop, JCY and Cybert are two different situations. With Cybert, there was absolutely no real reason for it to shoot up from 30-something or so sen to 2.00. It went up with a very shaky base and the drop wasn't really a surprise although the sharpness and swiftness of this were.

JCY's rise over the last few months was justified, especially with that brilliant quarter when it benefited from Thailand's floods. The TP of 2.00 was actually viable... if it could maintain the performance. But it couldn't. Its immediate price will be determined on how investors see its potential for the current quarter. Year-on-Year, JCY is doing better so far. However, the TP has to be changed. I think there will be a rebound - a mild one, until people figure it out.

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2012-08-23 20:01 | Report Abuse

Kenanga's Alex Liu got it right with his "Tipping Point" post which came out on Friday 17/8/2012, just before the long weekend. Although he didn't directly say "Don't buy", the message was clear:
http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2012/08/jcy-crossed-tipping-point.html

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2012-08-23 15:46 | Report Abuse

This is good. It didn't drop as I had thought. Now 0.25 is the new support line while building up the base for another push upwards. Hope so.

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2012-08-23 15:32 | Report Abuse

JCY's call warrants - these should be considered if one is betting the counter will rebound.

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2012-08-23 15:24 | Report Abuse

Most of the other counters seem to have gotten quiet. Everyone is watching JCY it seems.

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2012-08-23 15:16 | Report Abuse

Congrats to Genius Y and those who had bought the HA warrant. Sigh... if only your post had come earlier:-(

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2012-08-23 15:11 | Report Abuse

My gosh! This is panic selling! 1.10-11

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2012-08-23 14:51 | Report Abuse

There's always the possibility. But I feel it is more likely to rebound a bit. It has gone down a bit too much today, in addition to yesterday's loss. The seems to be a `mini-panic' among contra traders and that they are cutting loss and driving the price further down. There is an oversold situation, I think. But if the major shareholders are also dumping their shares, then it will definitely go down further.