My AA mother and warrants are saved!:-) Now to try and squeeze Wednesday's deadbeats and make the best of the situation and momentum.

This will annoy current SKPetro holders: I'm really hoping it will drop a few sen early tomorrow...so that I can buy:-) Only then will it start going up again. Was so busy with AirAsia and FGV today that I didn't see SKPetro creeping up.

Which part of Pasir Mas and are you there now? I was in Kangkong, 17040 not for a while - from 1982 to 2010. All my children were born there.

Happy Birthday, Jester! May your birthday be a day where you make a 100% gain from some warrant:-)

SKPetro and its warrants are among my top favourites too although I favour the CA. For some reason (psychological perhaps), I tend to lean towards those that are no more than 8 sen, if their premiums are `okay enough'. Am waiting to see a bit more volume. But I sense it has built up a base and an upswing could come very soon. Will definitely jump in at the first sign of that.

Shirley, no choice - I have to stick around and face the battle tomorrow. My -CW warrants are doing swell and I can run away at any time I choose. But the mother is at 3.03 and I also have the -CT at 0.01. The CW already makes more than enough to cover the later two. But I'm targeting these deadbeats to also play their part by at least breaking even. I have faith in this counter although I might have to pay and wait.

Strange and sometimes amazing how things go in our lives. We didn't even know each other before that (she was/is in Kota Damansara, PJ while I was in some backwater...near my ex-wife's house). And things progressed in me marrying the doctor Haha!

KC Loh - This is the logo of my wife's Islamic pharmaceutical and treatment practice. It's in Jawi script art. http://bit.ly/an-nisaa This was already up and running before I knew her. Her products sent to me when I was ill and living alone in Pasir Mas in 2010 had helped me to recover. Long story:-)

Ching Yin, now you're flattering me. I'm make losses too sometimes. Missed the bus NUMEROUS times. Not/Never and `expert'. Only sharing my experience. Had made a lot of mistakes and lost money/failed to make money in the 1990's. Wasn't involved in the market for years until this year due to poverty. Seriously. I'm also learning from the comments at this forum.

Shirley1, Probably. I certainly hope so. The indications are good. 1) Although it finished in the red, the fact that it clawed back from the lowest is encouraging. Unlike yesterday where it seemed to claw back, then slid again and finished at the lowest point.

2) This is a quality counter. Although they are naturally fearful for obvious reasons, many investors (including and especially institutions, local AND foreign) plus traders know the potential of buying this kind of counter. Especially at this price. Once they are reasonably sure it has bottomed and recovering, they will jump in.

Ching Yin, I'm a small fish too...*very*. That by itself isn't necessarily a `bad' thing although there are disadvantages. Like not having enough quality stocks that I would like to. It's in using your capital and learning from mistakes and success that's a lot more important. No point being a big fish and making big losses... and not learning from the experience.

The strategy in buying warrants in the hope a rebound will help to cover the mother's paper loss worked very well. I'm actually in the plus:-) ...and with some of the warrants yet to sell. Syukur, Thank God for this.

I think I'm going to be a bit greedy and hold out for a while yet. The -CW's expiry is... still a long time la - April `12. Last Monday it was at 0.09 - I DEMAND 9 SEN!!:-P

NEXT WEEK come down. Please let me get my 1.5 sen from the warrants first.

@Ching Yin Carrot Loh - SHHH! Don't spook it!...might go down again;-)

[Sorry for the very long comment - feeling a bit philosophical and reflective right now Heheh!] Okay, discussion and learning time while we wait and watch how AirAsia's *shares* (not to be freely replaced or interchanged with its "business perfomance" or the company) - some, like me, with a mixture of nervousness and anticipation (had just bought some -CW warrants which I'm hoping to make a few ringgit from). There are things that we can learn from what is happening to it.

Remember all those positive reviews about AA, Tony Fernandes etc.?... of how great an entrepreneur he is, how AA changed the aviation game in Malaysia and SE Asia, how great an investment it is as compared to MAS due to the capital appreciation, dividends and other positive superlatives? All or most of these are justified - the fact remains that Fernandes *is* a great entrepreneur. But the fact is that, as we now see very clearly, an investor is never guaranteed he will make money just because he invests in a company that is perceived to be great and very well run. On the other hand, he might actually lose a substantial sum!

I'm mentioning this because AirAsia's performance immediately reminds me of what George Soros has expoused in "THE CRASH OF 2008 AND WHAT IT MEANS - THE NEW PARADIGM FOR FINANCIAL MARKETS". Among other things, there are limits to all the technical and fundamental analyses and whatever else scientific methods to predict the market's and individual counter's movements. If anyone says he had foreseen or anticipated AA's current price from last week based on whatever his analyses and methods are, he is most likely an empty braggart or/and a liar.

There is something which Soros calls the "Theory of Reflexivity" which could override these analyses and predictive models, as is happening to AA's price. In short, Soros says there are variables that can't be accurately given values to - the "unknowns" which includes how the thinking and perceptions of various individuals can change and by how much. And especially in how they would respond. Well, we have seen the sharp and sustained drops and how "it doesn't make sense" technically and fundamentally.

In short, we can only do so much with research, analysis etc. but we simply can't be anywhere near certain of what individuals will do.

@Taugeh, I really appreciate your comments and opinions here on AA, UEM Land etc. The points are very thoughtful and useful for traders and investors alike. Whether they come to be correct or not in the future is secondary. Hope you will continue to give your opinions at this forum. They certainly add quality and new perspective.

See how ironic and how unpredictable it is with the stockmarket? Most people have been belittling MAS while praising AA to the sky. But the guy who had bought MAS early this week wouldn't be doing too badly right now. The lesson here is that essentially the counter (whatever counter) is actually secondary - it's in the timing and exit of it that's count above everything else. That's where the money is.

Looks like I will have to become a "forced/very unwilling investor" of AirAsia:-( Alternatively, will have to buy some warrants which will help to make up for the mother's loss (they tend to gain more percentage-wise). But this will only work IF and when they go up. If not, this strategy will result in being stuck with TWO losers instead of one. *If only* we can see one hour into the future:-)

There's also a 5.5 sen dividend payment. Ex-date 20 Sept. This justifies investors buying when the price was low. This factor alone should check the selling pressure although those who got it low might do better in taking the capital gains. After all what is 5.5 sen as compared to 30?... unless if one is in it for the long run. If the price remains at this level (at least), then he will get BOTH.

Omigosh! It is still going down. Better stay out and let the dust settle first.

Yeah, that will mean many people getting stuck at 0.01 and not quite able to sell at 0.015 (which is pretty decent enough). You are right about the over-reacting, and it works both ways in selling and also buying although you can't exactly call it "panic buying". But knee-jerk reactions when people rush to hold positions during a rebound, and feeling "0.02 is still CHEAP!" It has happened again and again in the market.

Just thinking... and that could be dangerous for my own self:-P The -CT warrant is now at 0.01. Expires end Nov. `12. Exercise Price 3.80, which most likely won't be reached in 10 weeks time.

But here's the thought: What if it gets to 0.02? That will be 100% gross profit! Should there be a rebound in the mother share, the momentum will likely push it to that price. The risks - short expiry date, very unlikely to reach ex price. But worse comes to worse, if there's volume (and this one has volume), there are always buyers at 0.05. 50% loss (gross), true, but that's just about it... unless if no one wants to buy which means 100% loss. Looks like a fighting chance to me:-)

I'll just let people shout and scream about EPF and whatever else. There is probably a lot of benefit that I don't know of. My SOLE mission - to make money from the market. 1.5 sen profit from FGV warrants today will do it just fine:-)

Taugeh, that's very possible. The price seemed to have recovered somewhat in the afternoon but those heavy selling towards the end was a real dampener. But then again, that big seller might have finished selling. Again, tomorrow will be interesting. Will the 3.00 support hold? If it doesn't then who knows how low it might go.

Today, RHB comes out with a Trading Buy call with a TP of 3.63. Kenanga and MIDF both have Buy calls of even higher TPs of 4.06 and 4.18 respectively! All the technical indicators show it is grossly oversold. If it goes down further tomorrow, even these analysts will be flabbergasted. For those who have dared to buy - there will be substantial gains if it only gets to last week's level. So tempting to add some more tomorrow but I'm going to be prudent and just stick with what I've picked up.

This matter of AirAsia feels rather odd; that this isn't a normal correction of price or really a response to a challenge to its business. It feels like something isn't quite right...

AA is commonly accepted as a company that is innovative, well run and proven to be able to stand up to adversities in its environment and overcome challenges. Unlike companies like MRCB, UEM Land etc. no one can say that it is "a political risk" or something similar. So why this kind of slide in fall over the past sessions??

From last week, it could be explained that the slide was due to the general market sentiments and the Standard & Poor warning (which is actually on Malaysia, NOT AirAsia). Many other counters had seen falls. Fair enough. But the sharp drop today - just because of this Malindo thing?! AA has taken on other previously more established airlines including from Singapore and did well enough. So why is Malindo seen as such a worrying threat so as to warrant this kind of drop? And this coming after last week's slide.

What other factors are there? Higher fuel prices? Well, it isn't as high as previously. And AA went through that okay enough. There has to be a fundamental threat to its current business to justify this kind of sharp and sustained slide. But everyone is puzzled as to what that might be beyond the Malindo thing. This thing warrants deeper investigation and research. I wonder what the `experts' at the IBs have to say.

Not directly connected to AA but is somewhat relevant. From The Star Alert: "HSBC upgraded Malaysia to Overweight from Neutral, says country will benefit from strong economic growth coupled with low inflation."

HSBC may not be as influential as Standard & Poor etc. but their opinions and evaluations do command some attention. I'm amazed that some Malaysians, for some reason, are so keen to make condescending comments on their own country. Whenever there is good reports about Malaysia coming from oversea sources, these people would be quick to belittle these. And for what?? It seems that people in other countries are more receptive and appreciative of the stable economic situation here than these so-called Malaysians.

By the way, note that those who had gone in at 3.57 - including institutions - are now 22 sen in the plus. EPF contributors would be extremely pleased with this I'd say. Or maybe it's much better had they bought the "non-BN, non-white elephant" AirAsia at 3.48 last Wednesday?? I'm amazed by how some people confidently dare to make such sweeping statements; as if they know something which the rest of us clueless simpletons don't.

It is "a BN white elephant"? Seriously... I mean in that its is "BN" and also a "white elephant"? That means all those analysts and and institutional investors are really `dunggu' uneducated types who don't have a clue in what they're buying. Sorry if I sound harsh but do you really understand what you are writing?

Guys, your counter did very well today:-) See how it pays if one would just wait and not sell when the mood was gloomy.

A very encouraging end to the trading day. It not only defended yesterday's price but also closed at the highest point. Another important point to note is that FGV achieved these despite CPO prices falling to the lowest levels, and that it didn't follow many of the other plantation counters in going down.

Aiseh, it came down again. Closed at the lowest point of the day which means the selling could continue tomorrow.

As @tamasi mentioned, something could be starting. Maybe not takeoff. But it certainly appears to be taxiing for the runway. Has the bottom been reached and will a technical rebound follow? I definitely hope so.

Kc Loh, there's the poor man/cheapskates alternative - call warrants.

Fat Cat, don't la say like that!...makes me jittery;-)

@herbert, that's a good point to ponder. It is natural and logical to expect a new entrance to snatch a piece of the pie. But in this kind of business, there's a very high entry barrier for any newcomer. AA has already gone through that stage and learning curve, coming out with flying colours, no pun intended. They are a proven entity and with experience. It will be something like offering paid TV in Malaysia - can a newcomer be a serious threat to Astro? Between Malindo and AA, I'm betting on the latter to come out ahead in this very tough industry.

Thanks for the post, CP Teh. It's really comforting to know that you have bought... because I did too with AirAsia just now and FGV yesterday. After the sharp falls, I'm banking on some sort of a rebound. But whatever, the prices have become attractive enough. Even if they were to drop further, and I'll cut my hand with the knives, at least I know that these aren't impulse buying. Good luck to us all.

@isaacs, You may be right. And @BullBear has good points too. Some very thoughtful and constructive comments here and I appreciate it. Now it's decision time: The 3.00 support appears to be holding firm. AA has gone down over the past few trading sessions, in addition to today's sharp fall. A rebound of some sort looks more likely than it sliding further (unless if institutional investors are making big sales in stages... which means the price might come down further later). I think I'm going to take the risk, and prepare to pick up and wait if AA doesn't rebound immediately.

Tony Fernandes says Malindo "is not a threat". Maybe he's right, maybe he's not. What I really care is this: what's the likelihood of it rebounding? Most of the IBs have rated it at at least 4.00. Wonder how they view this latest development? If it's like JCY, there's a few ringgit to be made from a rebound... *if* it happens.

To the cowboy traders here: could this sharp drop present an opportunity to "Menaguk di air keruh" with a few brave buys of the call warrants? But only if a rebound is likely. If it continues to slide, then the cowboys with warrants will be in trouble.

Was hoping it would go to the lower 2.50's to buy. Okay, anything below 2.60 and I'm in again. This is one of the most undervalued counters in the world.

"competition is good for consumers! capitalism at work!" -- Fully agree with this. Bring it on! To be fair, the government had better do something about MAS very soon and be firm about it. Then, with the local car industry. Let these be like the telecommunications industry. Remember the bad old days when it was so costly to make an outstation call? Or the various charges in owing a handphone? But thanks to competition, we have all benefited. Nowadays, even primary schoolchildren can own and maintain a handphone!

It's at 1.01, which is okay considering how much the general market has come down. One of my previous comments had compared it with AirAsia, of which most people had reasonably favoured over MAS. But as we can see, that's the nature of the market - had one bought AA then, he would be staring at a significant loss. Not to say it's a Buy (there are better counters to put one's money) but with MAS, it is so down and out that the downside risk appears to be a lot less.

kcfan, however, that doesn't mean it will go up tomorrow:-) But then again, all else being equal, FGV's performance in the afternoon *is* quite encouraging. The fear factor - some people had sold because of this; fearing that the price would slide further. Of course it did!...when they gave to the Buyers' price. But if they have more confidence and assurance, they would hold on and wait. That's why we should always also consider the psychology of it all and not just TA and fundamentals.

Tomorrow will be interesting - if it manages to defend today's close, then the slide could be over. For institutions and long-term investors, there is an attraction to FGV. Its dividends especially where it will distribute at least 50% of its profits. At current price, the yield is maybe at 3.5-4% - nothing to shout about but for some people, that's acceptable enough. Don't also forget the political angle. BN or whatever government - only political idiots would ignore the settlers' wellbeing. For us, why not we also try to `tumpang' by tagging along this politically significant group?:-)

That's what I was thinking too. It went to 4.57 earlier today and my thoughts were "Wonder what will happen if it goes below the IPO? Wouldn't Najib be embarrassed!". I'm pretty sure this would be news worldwide, especially since some people were gloating and laughing about Facebook. The US media would definitely love to serve a come-uppance to us, although FGV would still have some way to go (2.28) before it is at half the current FB equivalent.

Then it went up a bit...then a bit more. I was thinking that if some institution - EPF or whatever - is being pleaded upon or even arm-twisted, rather than complain about it, why not I `tumpang sekaki' and make a few ringgit?:-)

I was looking at FGV's technical charts just now, trying to making something out of these. Previously I had no interest in it. Only became interested after its sharp fall and seeming rebound after lunch today. Anyway reading charts is a bit difficult because I'm still an amateur when it comes to TA. But one thing that I've observed is that the sharp drop from Aug 5 onwards - the daily volumes weren't heavy. Just `normal' for a counter of this size.

One thing encouraging about today is that (1) the volume is higher than the past week (2) it recovered from the day's low to finish very near its highest daily point. Anyone with even minimal knowledge of TA will take notice of this.

One of the reasons for its sharp fall could be due to some foreign investors selling due to news that Standard & Poor *might* downgrade Malaysia. Note that it is a notice or warning but should in no way be taken as "imminent". So, what can we as TRADERS make of all this? I mention traders because there are politicians here who seem to be more concerned about what they perceive as `Umno' or whatever than in making profits! Well, go ahead dudes - with me, my SOLE objective with BSKL is to make money:-)

1) If investors are convinced that FGV's immediate support of 4.62 is strong and that there will be a technical rebound after the sharp fall, guess what they will do in the coming days?

2) If Ben Bernanke announces QE3 - which appears to be very likely due to the dismal numbers in the US - financial institutions there will be flush with cash. These are people with a worldview and will be looking to put it in places that they feel are "safe enough" plus with the potential to bring about dividends and capital appreciation. Malaysia will be one of these places. And the counters they will put money in will be the big caps. Regardless of the current CPO price, FGV will be among the attractions.

3) Since someone mentioned FGV is "an Umno counter" (which isn't correct at all), I'll just go along his line of thinking - wouldn't that mean the government will do its very best to ensure the price is propped up?... that it won't go below its IPO? If that's the case, does it not make sense for TRADERS (maybe not "politicians") to buy at near or a bit above this price in the hope that they will benefit from a rebound?

Perwaja is rumoured to have gotten an iron mining concession in Terengganu. What about Hiaptek? If I'm not mistaken the state government is likely to give this to Hiaptek also. If there's news of this, there will be an upswing to the price,as experienced by Perwaja.

KC Loh, I'd rather have a leader with an iron hand (but with a good heart) than too much talk and `democracy' which bogs down the making of decisions and the implementation of plans.

That's why I'd much prefer China's government than India despite the latter being praised for its democracy and judicial system. Notice how paralysed the latter's government can become? Politicians have approved various subsidies over the decades, which the present and future Indian government will not be able to abolish. This is at the expense of longer-term development. How to build roads and improve the power system when a good part of income is used for subsidies?!

In my opinion, it's much better to uplift the population's financial wellbeing first. As for democracy, free speech and whatever other niceties, this will follow later on when things are better. China might not be where it is now had it been as democratic and soft as India.

It has been rather quiet for the past few months or so. But Benalec has potential. Market sentiments aren't good right now so it too is affected. But once the weak holders leave, it will form a base. I'm going to jump in when that happens.