Ahmad Cendana

cendana287 | Joined since 2012-03-14

Investing Experience Intermediate
Risk Profile Moderate

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Stock

2012-09-04 15:27 | Report Abuse

This is another one of my regrets (that include Takaful, DiGi, TM, Affin etc.) One helpful guy here suggested it to me a few months ago due to my interest in counters with the strong fundamentals of good EPS and also paying dividends. But I didn't buy immediately and instead went for another counter which was active. Made money with that one but could have made more with Hua Yang.

Stock

2012-09-04 10:12 | Report Abuse

One-day wonder. Good volume last Thursday and it petered out this week. But if it goes down a bit lower than this, I'll buy and wait. This is one of the oil & gas counters that haven't gone up yet. Business-wise, I feel it is better than TH Heavy.

Stock

2012-09-04 10:10 | Report Abuse

See it this way - the fact that it has gone up from 0.40 to 0.60-plus in just a few weeks AND is managing to sustain this price level are great achievements by themselves.

Stock

2012-09-04 09:04 | Report Abuse

From 0.05 to 0.275 with big volume!! What's going on?

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2012-09-04 08:59 | Report Abuse

The present price is attractive enough but the technical charts seems to say "Wait". This has got me hesitant although I may use my gut feeling and just buy. Its NTA is well above 0.80. I'd say a 30% TP is reasonable.

Stock

2012-09-04 08:44 | Report Abuse

The psychological factor is so great. Despite all the positive news and developments, Perisai is still below 1.00. But if it gets past that, I don't think it will see sub-1.00 as now again. This is rated by many analysts as the best mid-cap oil & gas company.

Stock

2012-09-04 08:41 | Report Abuse

Isn't/Wasn't Khairy Jamaludin indirectly connected to Scomi? It was a high flyer once during Badawi's time as PM. This should explain why it's not getting contracts locally. The contempt against him seems to run so deeply. Khairy doesn't even get a Datuk when even monkeys can.

Stock

2012-09-03 17:27 | Report Abuse

Added 6 sen today. I'm out though - had taken the opportunity to jump ship when it went to 1.55 two weeks ago. But best of luck to OSK shareholders. Your patience with the sale to RHB might be rewarded in the near future.

Stock

2012-09-03 16:37 | Report Abuse

rizal Prk - Apparently it's this one about the government purchasing its EDL in JB:
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v6/newsbusiness.php?id=691548

Stock

2012-09-03 15:55 | Report Abuse

MK Land has come down from its recent above 40 sen. This offers a chance for those who had missed that last upswing. Its biggest attraction are its assets especially its land bank in such prime locations. Don't know how low it will go but I'm definitely looking to get in at the "right time", whenever that may be.

Stock

2012-09-03 15:32 | Report Abuse

How could I have missed that explanation!? Sheepish to admit that I had only looked at the main page and didn't click to see the others. Thanks. Now it's a lot clearer although we don't know the exact algorithm used, i.e. how much weightage is given to the factors.

Stock

2012-09-03 14:44 | Report Abuse

I'm having second thoughts about Fajar after reading Alex Lu's blog http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2012/08/fajar-hit-by-double-whammy.html And the fact that one of its major shareholders Datuk Ir. Low Keng Kok had sold 1 million units on Aug 17 hasn't helped to boost confidence in it either. Looks like it will have to go down some more before Fajar becomes attractive enough to be worth a risk.

Stock

2012-09-03 14:15 | Report Abuse

This counter could be the new dark horse. It has been very quiet for the past few months but there's a possibility of renewed interest. Quite a number of investment houses have come up with new and increased TPs with the lowest being 1.90 by Kenanga. But all the others have put this at above 2.00:
HLG - 2.00
RHB - 2.14
Maybank - 2.17
Affin - 2.24

Eversendai is definitely worth watching.

Stock

2012-09-03 13:21 | Report Abuse

The "Trending Now - Hot Stocks Today" at the right side on i3investor's landing page - are these figures accurate? I wonder how they are computed. It shows IHH with a green arrow, which is baffling because the price and volume are lower.

News & Blogs

2012-09-03 13:18 | Report Abuse

That presents a good chance to come in. But one would have to wait a bit for analysts and the market to realise this. Naim is a counter that has its seasons, blowing hot and cold. At the first sign of volume building up, that's the cue to jump in.

Stock

2012-09-03 13:06 | Report Abuse

Good observation, Steve; which is something that I should have also mentioned in the previous comment. If one were to look at the individual transactions, these appear to be traders with small lots who panicked or were discouraged by the articles and are selling to cut loss. It's a good thing for the longer-term investors because there will be a new base, minus the weak holders, from which the next upswing will come from.

Last Thursday the volume was 16.3 mil. Before that were 9.6, 9.5, 7.9, 6.2, 9.3, 17.2, 18.9... Today the price went down with just 2.5 mil at noon. I think it wouldn't take much for the price to spring back to 3.20. By the way, the -CM warrant is holding up well. I'm also eyeing to get in on this one and try to make a few ringgit in the next upswing.

Stock

2012-09-03 12:29 | Report Abuse

I don't know about whether there is any good news. But I think it's a technical rebound after the price had gone down sharply since the Raya holidays. There was a correction going on, which was compounded by news of its EDL-related sukuk loans being downgraded. As usual, traders had over-reacted and cut losses, leading to the slide. 1.62 last week was a great chance to get in but I didn't. Excuse me while I go and kick myself.

Stock

2012-09-03 10:25 | Report Abuse

See how the price is affected by the news reports? This is to be expected because many people are too quick to respond without taking the trouble to really think and consider. The article in The Edge - again, "phantom quotes" are used, i.e. `analysts' with no names. Why are they anonymous??

But if one has done his homework and given IHH the thought and consideration before buying, he wouldn't be perturbed by this one. Conviction is needed with counters like this, unless something fundamental changes (and this currency matter isn't a fundamental issue... just a quarter-to-quarter problem). After the weak holders have been flushed out, the price will go up again.

Stock

2012-09-03 10:16 | Report Abuse

SILK Highway itself. There aren't too many already-built highways available. PLUS was /is the greatest but EPF has now bought and privatised it.

Traffic using SILK has risen steadily over the past few years. But for the company, its borrowings are a burden and a good part of earnings have to go towards paying it. That's to be expected though because building a highway takes LOTS of capital. I'm thinking along this line - wouldn't EPF/PLUS and other cash-rich organizations looking for stable income not be interested in owing a toll concession? It's only a question of the price.

Stock

2012-09-02 22:48 | Report Abuse

tand3 - I haven't really read the financial report in full detail. But I've read the piece in The Edge weekly of "IHH's US$500 mil forex risk".

It's a thorn for IHH but at the same time, I feel the title could be a bit too dramatic. If one doesn't read it fully, the conclusion might likely be "IHH could stand to lose US$500 mil", which isn't the case at all. It's just refers to the unhedged cross-currency loan of US$460.7 mil which its Turkish arm Acibadem had taken where the loss was due to the strong US dollar versus the Turkish lira.

The US$ had gained against most currencies in the last quarter due to investors' fears about the Euro zone, and that included against Malaysia too. But it has come down a bit this quarter - in fact, if talks of QE3 by the Federal Reserve continues to gain traction, it might come down further. So, the currency matter will then become less of an issue.

Currency appreciations and fluctuations are part and parcel of international trade and finance, and I believe companies that have businesses in various countries are well aware of the risks (which could also turn to "rewards") and have made provisions on the matter. News like this might affect its price somewhat. But I don't think it will linger on for long. After all, there aren't too many counters like IHH being listed and it won't lose the perception of being "stable" just because of this currency matter (which is faced by other cross-border companies too). IHH investors (inclusing and especially institutions) are those who look at the longer term and not at what the daily and weekly prices are. It's not a counter for traders but for those who can sit and wait.

Stock

2012-09-02 21:17 | Report Abuse

There's another one that I'm keeping an eye on - SILK. It has been very quiet for quite a few months. Recently, there was some interest in this counter but it quickly petered out. Last Thursday and Wednesday have seen the interest coming back - if this continues from tomorrow onwards, we might have "a new TH Heavy".

SILK is better known for its highway but it is also an oil & gas company. In fact, two-thirds of its revenue come from O&G. It has substantial debts which prevent it from registering good profits. But its assets - I feel these might attract other companies.

Stock

2012-09-02 13:21 | Report Abuse

I'm now staying in Kota Damansara and it's really great when sending or picking up someone at Subang instead of Sepang. But Firefly can't quite compete with AirAsia when it comes to low-cost. For one thing, MAS doesn't have enough planes for this category. Then there's the cost - if it's just slightly more than AA's fare, I'd much prefer Firefly. Subang is the attraction for me.

MAS will have to undergo serious restructuring to get out of this mess. JAL has shown the way. But this will have to wait until after the General Elections because the unions and various parties will use whatever plans as an issue to promote discontent.

Stock

2012-09-02 13:06 | Report Abuse

roof most probably means IHH. I remember reading something about the forex exposure too - the operations in Turkey etc. But it's a double-edged sword which can work the other way too. If the other currencies appreciate, then this will translate into more gains when concerted to MYR. Anyway, I don't think forex will be too significant either way.

Stock

2012-09-02 13:01 | Report Abuse

dr_mie - *Many* potential counters as always. The most tricky part is when to get in (and also when to get out rather than push one's luck when something goes up). With traders, these are the usual suspects - JCY (despite its sharp fall, I feel there is still life to it); SKPetro too, which has gone below 2.40. MRCB will be interesting next week - will the rebound last Thursday last or will it come down again? I was hesitant to buy anything last week due to the long weekend. Hopefully, there will be clearer signs from tomorrow. I've just bought The Edge weekly and will be thinking about the various counters today... plus read the opinions here for ideas.

Stock

2012-09-01 23:21 | Report Abuse

Glomac - yes. I'm very interested in it and have been following its developments and price movements since a few months ago. I have a good feeling about it, like *something* will happen. Just waiting for the right time to get on board.

Stock

2012-09-01 23:17 | Report Abuse

I wouldn't be surprised. It was the same with Ramunia/TH Heavy, no?:-) People had shunned it when it was at 0.40 and in less than 2 months, it is at 0.60. A very handsome capital gain indeed for such a short duration. With MAS, all it needs is some positive development - regardless of the big losses, it will be the impetus to push the price up.

It's gloomy right now but do keep an eye on its movements and volume and then decide whether the 3:1 Reward-Risk ration justifies jumping in. There might be a chance to make some quick money when that happens.

Stock

2012-09-01 22:40 | Report Abuse

This is the conventional wisdom: "MAS has been losing money with the immediate future being bleak. Without profits, it can't pay dividends which makes it even more unattractive." *Investors* definitely won't buy this counter because there are many other much better companies on BSKL.

But I'm thinking about the higher-risk *speculating* which is more art than the science of economics. MAS vs AirAsia - which one is a better investment? This is a no brainer because the one that is turning in profits is certainly the choice.

But as one moves to "Return on Investment", that is how much one might possibly get over one or two years (or whatever time period) in terms of dividends and capital appreciation. With MAS, I doubt one will get even a single sen in dividend this year. Nor in 2013, and most likely not in 2014 too. Whatever profits they might make will go into paying down its massive debts and as operating expenditure.

So, the only attraction to buy MAS is the possibility of its shares going up. It doesn't look like this is going to happen in the immediate future. But what about a bit later? Although conventional wisdom seems to point more towards it sliding down further (to less than par 1.00 - possible since its NTA is only 32 sen), speculators are also aware that the price going UP is not an impossibility.

"But how and why would the price go up if things are like this for MAS??" Well, as we have seen in the market so often, companies that make LOSSES or just tiny profits have rallied and gone up! Why is that? Because people buy and chase up its price - some news, events or even unconfirmed rumours are enough to turn losers into shooting stars. Cybert, GPRO etc. among recent examples. Is there absolutely no possibility that *something* might come up about MAS that would start this upswing? Remember, this is a company which the government (regardless of BN or Pakatan Rakyat) will NEVER allow to go down the drain.

Percentage-wise when it comes to capital return on investment: MAS at its current 1.05 - let's ignore the sentiments about it right now but just try to imagine... Can anyone really say it is "totally impossible" for MAS to ever be at 1.40? Its 52-week high is 1.74 so who is to say it can't ever get there again? In this situation, the return on capital will be 33%.

AirAsia is now at 3.45 - to get a similar return, the price will have to go to 4.58. Again, this is not impossible. At the same time, it is also possible it might go lower than 3.00 (with the investor/speculator losing 13% should that happen).

Now, I'm not trying to irritate AirAsia investors or to promote MAS here:-) I don't have any shares in either and will likely not in the near future. What I'm doing here is to just try and contribute to the questions asked and the comments here. After all, it's stimulating to talk about ways on how to make some money from the stockmarket, regardless of whatever the counter is.

General

2012-08-31 21:10 | Report Abuse

I didn't know about this mobile app. It would be very useful to have access to i3investor even when I'm away from the laptop. Looks like this is a valid reason to replace my Blackberry with any of the Android phones. Or maybe getting an Android tablet while sticking with the BB.

Stock

2012-08-31 19:42 | Report Abuse

Good volume yesterday but will it hold? This is another one of those undervalued counters like Msports. But I think Xinquan has more potential for capital gains, if only because its volume and interest are generally much better. Let's see whether there is still interest in it next week.

Stock

2012-08-31 18:59 | Report Abuse

But then again, it's quite reasonable at its current price 0.455 (par 1.00). Turnover of RM103 mil in last quarter shows that it is a significant player in its field. Its future depends on winning and implementing transportation projects especially - if it can do these, then the quarter losses will easily turn to black.

Have to do more research on this company. It's now rather gloomy but I won't be too surprised if it fortunes start to pick up in the medium term. However, buying now would likely mean one will have to wait a while for the price to start moving up.

Stock

2012-08-31 18:47 | Report Abuse

Quite strange that this counter is so quiet. Second quarter EPS is 6.38 sen from revenue of RM24 mil and RM5.7 mil profit which are decent enough. And to think that many people had chased counters like GPRO (revenue RM784,000; loss RM2.1 mil or minus 0.83 sen) - a 10 sen par company to 30 sen a few weeks ago!

Stock

2012-08-31 17:48 | Report Abuse

Scomien second quarter reported yesterday: loss of RM7.9 million or -2.36 sen per share. Revenue RM102.9 mil.

Stock

2012-08-30 23:01 | Report Abuse

I bought it last June despite reports of its losses and discouraging comments by most analysts and some of the people here. Had felt it had gone down a lot already and there should be some sort of a rebound.

Then it reported another loss. But it was significantly smaller than the previous quarter. The price slide appeared to be checked and the volume was very good. That's why I went in at 1.06, planning to pick up and wait because I feel it might go back to above 1.20 in 3 months or so. It closed at 1.08 that day, which was very encouraging because I already broke even. The next day it went up - rather than pick up, I felt an 11 sen gain in one day should be good enough and I sold it at 1.17 (it went up a bit more. but that's okay with me).

What kkbee says might be contrary to `common sense' and many might quote the analysts' reports (some of the TP are below 1.00) to stay away. I'm not saying MAS will go up (or down for that matter), but the fact is that we don't know how it will go in the near future, as seen in its performance in June. However, if one is thinking of buying, maybe it's better to wait for the volume to pick up first. And if the technical readings look positive, then there could be a chance.

Stock

2012-08-30 22:37 | Report Abuse

If only we *really* know what's the right price and when to buy. "When" especially. Get this magical skill right and one can be very, very rich in a short time. I don't know of anyone who can do this consistently, and that includes Warren Buffet too for he's had his share of wrong timings.

Technical charts can help but they aren't perfect enough. And one needs to undergo a learning curve first before he can interpret them correctly. Even the pros can get it wrong. That's because the are other elements involved in influencing the movement of prices. George Soros includes this in the "Reflexivity Theory" http://www.forexcrunch.com/george-soros-theory-of-reflexivity/

With IHH there's another problem - it has been listed rather recently and there isn't too much data for TA to give more comprehensive and broader readings. But from what I see at ChartNexus.com, it has looked positive since a couple of days ago.

I don't know how it will fare in the immediate future, of course. As weiboy90 says, the last few sessions would have given the investor a better price - it could have easily been gotten at 3.11 last week. Those who bought it then are now have a margin buffer to feel more comfortable with the daily ups and downs.

I think this is the lesson for this kind of counter: when you have convinced yourself that a counter is indeed of quality and that there is potential of it going up, the time to buy is "on weakness". IHH had undergone this after that last short upswing when it went to 3.24 or so. That means buying at 3.11-15 wouldn't have been "a sucker's price" by any means... even if it were to go down from that range. That's because one doesn't know what the bottom price will be until the event happens.

The 3.20 now is 9 sen more expensive than last week. But for some, that's not the issue. They are more interested in momentum - if a counter is going up, then that's a good thing and it doesn't matter too much if it's now 9 sen more expensive. Should it go to 3.40 or more, those who feel it is "too high" at 3.20 will regret their not buying... as those who didn't when it was at 3.11 previously:-) That's how it goes with all the investors and counters in the stockmarket and it happens every day (with me today and also yesterday, it's with PasukGB).

Stock

2012-08-30 18:55 | Report Abuse

I'm puzzled about those lots transacted at 14:50:04 -- how did those very small and continuous lots that ended in several "1's"come about? By the way, it might well be a local institution (EPF most likely) but I'm also wondering whether this buyer (could be more but I think it's just one) is from overseas. The time - it's about 2 hours after the start of European markets. IHH, after all, is international-class and there aren't too many health-centred counters of this size listed in the markets. This would be a great thing for IHH's share price.

Stock

2012-08-30 17:06 | Report Abuse

Wow! Some big buyer came in towards the end of the trading session and scooped up all the lots until 3.20! Is this the start to an upswing for IHH? Too bad tomorrow is a holiday. Hope this buyer returns next week:-)

Stock

2012-08-30 15:32 | Report Abuse

This is interesting. Volume has increased and so has the price. But have to consider the long weekend which might affect the sentiments and momentum. I'll wait for next Monday before coming in.

Stock

2012-08-30 12:23 | Report Abuse

Small volume but since you are interested in it, there could be something here. I'm going to keep an eye on this one too and jump in when the volume starts to pick up.

Stock

2012-08-30 09:39 | Report Abuse

When a counter is on an uptrend, it's okay to buy it at a price that's higher than previously. But there's this something inside me that holds me back. Just can't buy back something that I had already sold. Maybe it's `kedekut'? Heheh! That's how I am, and I have missed potential profits in the past due to this.

afifi - Masa dia 20-something pun tak beli. Sekarang lagi takut:-)

Stock

2012-08-30 08:57 | Report Abuse

I had come in early with TH Heavy - at 0.415. After reading the various reports, had felt it had a lot of potential. At the very least, the downside risk was minimal (I have the "Safety first" philosophy). I was right. Unfortunately, I had sold off too early. Am amazed it has come this high so soon! Congrats to those who had held on.

Stock

2012-08-30 08:54 | Report Abuse

Yeah, and it didn't even cross my mind to come in. In fact, I didn't even know that it was going to be listed yesterday. Congratulations to those who had benefited - Namoyaki, especially.

But now this counter has raised expectations about new listings. People who had missed this one would be eager to make up the next time. However, the next one might turn out to be a dud where those who jump in will get trapped. We'll see how it goes when the time comes.

General

2012-08-29 14:11 | Report Abuse

I don't know what maybank2u online looks like, But if it's similar to AffinTrade that I use (as with others using the N2N system), it's probably similar to the asterisk (*) found with some counters. In that case, you only need highlight the counter and click on the asterisk to see a list of the titles of the announcements and follow the link. But someone using mayban2u will have to confirm whether it is indeed the same as N2N.

Alternatively, you can check at the BSKL website on a counter's latest announcements: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/ Type the name at "Get Code" and then "Announcements" from the pop-up window.

General

2012-08-29 13:51 | Report Abuse

tony - pirate99 is right and hence my caution. There are people who feel overwhelmed by the market. So many counters; some not going anywhere, some losing, and some with that exiting trait which all of us want - going up and up all the time. "So which one will be the next one to give that thrill?"

Nothing wrong with looking for ideas and answers because that's what we all do. Including me, of course (in fact, the comments here influence my decisions more that those by the investment banks). BUT these comments and theories should be accepted and used only as a part of the individual's selections and decisions. Unfortunately, some might see them as "tips", which they are not. At least not with any of my comments. These are just mere opinions and speculations.

This isn't being modest or humble, but the truth - I have been wrong so many times before (but I've been right too...just like most people). What I'm concerned about is that sometimes my comments sound exuberant and confident and those who are new might be led into thinking these are also "correct". That's why we have to keep reminding the people here to be cautious and not be too influenced by the comments here; not just by me but others too.

General

2012-08-29 12:31 | Report Abuse

SB - a par 50 sen company, but at its current price, it has now turned into something like a warrant:-)

General

2012-08-29 12:22 | Report Abuse

Guys, take note that I'm NOT recommending Silver Bird. Definitely not. Especially if one is relatively new in the market. Don't want his experience to turn sour with these high risks investments - no, it's "speculating", but certainly not gambling and lamenting "This is all because I listened to that nut Mat Cendana and his crazy strategies!":-) But I know some people can see my logic, although they might not be confident the speculating will turn out this way.

General

2012-08-29 12:17 | Report Abuse

Ching Yin Carrot Loh - Don't think too much about the dark clouds and roadblocks. It's something that happens/will happen to all of us when we enter the stockmarket. In these situations, try to be objective and see what our `mistakes' or the factors beyond our control are (same with when we made gains - must analyse on how and why we succeeded and try to replicate it).

As always, have patience. Often, this turns losing trades into winning ones - the "time factor". I learn this from my father, who has been in the market since the 70's...and still around when many others have long quitted. I've thought about it and his most crucial strength is his ability to sit and wait. And wait some more, sometimes for years! The magic of time would rescue most of his previously losing counters, with some of them giving high proit margins (this is one person who won't take a mere 10% profit.. unlike me Heheh!)

General

2012-08-29 11:59 | Report Abuse

Silver Bird - What richman says must be considered. However, I'm going to make a high risk calculated investment with it. But please don't follow me if you aren't prepared to (1) wait (2) face the real possibility of losing all of most of your capital.

I have allocated 10% of my capital for this category of counters - the very high risk. But not all 10% are in just one counter though. Due to its nature, the *potential* for profits MUST be at least 50%. Although it looks foolhardy (and I know time might prove *it is*), with Silver Bird I'm betting on this factor: its restructuring. It was recently granted 60 (or is it 90?) days by the High Court to go about this without being harassed too much by its MANY creditors. I know for a fact that the management is busily undertaking this since a few months ago.

Here is thinking and the calculated risk: at 0.08 sen now, what's the worst that could happen? Answer: It gets suspended, delisted and winded up. If all three happens, then my 8 sen is `hangus'.

But what if the restructuring plan is viable and approved by the High Court and market authorities? Will it not go (much?) higher than 8 sen? DEFINITELY. How much higher? I don't know because we'll have to get to that stage first. Only after the restructure, and with a better future than now (not too difficult, because it is now at rock bottom) would the management consider any bids for it.

The second-worse case scenario is this: SB is forced to be sold in a fire sale. In that case, I'll have to salvage what I can - the 8 sen might turn into 2 sen. But I'm prepared to take the loss because I know what I'm getting into.

Let's use this as a project and see what happens. My immediate timeframe is that something should happen by the end of this year (4 months)... and I'm targeting *at least* a 50% gain. If my calculated risk works, even Bernie Madoff will be jealous:-P Let's see how it goes.

General

2012-08-29 11:37 | Report Abuse

Am also thinking about DBE and its warrant. Since the mother is only 3 sen more, why not this one instead of the warrant? For one thing, there won't be any premium to pay. Plus no expiration date, which means I can wait 100 years for it to go to RM7.00:-)

Stock

2012-08-29 11:34 | Report Abuse

Another one of those "If only I had..." - should have bolder and followed Namoyaki at the start. Even if it were to go down, there would be comfort in knowing that even a pro had also gotten it wrong. Too late. Will just have to wait for other opportunities.

Stock

2012-08-29 10:27 | Report Abuse

As always, I don't dare to answer:-) It depends on how satisfied you are with the profit% that you get at this price. This is always the dilemma, ya, when a counter goes back lower an initial high price. One will always be thinking "I should have sold earlier". If you do sell, be prepared for this possibility (happens to all of us) - it then goes back up! So irritating!

But based on some analysts' TP, there seems to be potential for an upswing to 3.70 again. However, "when" is always the question.