Val-Elta

eltaria | Joined since 2011-03-18

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Stock

2 days ago | Report Abuse

Market a bit irrational, take Hua Yang for example, 4 quarter EPS 1.6 cents, revenue 191 million, net profit 6 million, but share price can be 42 cents as of now.

Maybe due to Avaland's previous times when a lot sold around 23 cents, so it's still a good exit point for those who still holding since then.

Will need a period of above 35 cents for a 2, 3 months to increase average shareholder entry price/allow those who hold the shares < 25 cents to exit fully before it can normalize back to market.

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3 days ago | Report Abuse

Also, take note during the RHB 20 jewels report,

It's stated that
Sales guidance of MYR700-800m represents almost 30% YoY growth

211m sales in the 1st quarter is already
30% of 700m full year forecast
26.3% of 800m full year forecast

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3 days ago | Report Abuse

Mmmm, overall I'll say it's a slightly positive result, I was hoping an EPS of 1.8 cents personally.

However, besides just looking at the PAT, there is additional information that can be deduced to aid your investment outlook.

Good
1st Q total property sales of RM 211 million, if sustainable, that'll be RM 800 million of property sales in a year.
Unbilled sales RM 852m is still very high, now transitioning to Alora and Amika which have not yet entered high progress billing stage.
Aetas seputeh 50% booking (soft launch) seems to be still 'unbilled' yet as of now, depending on if APDL is approved by end of June, there's a potential of up 250m in unbilled sales just from Aetas Seputeh added in next quarter.
Direct Operating and General Admin Expense have dropped quite significantly QoQ from 13% of revenue to 10% of revenue.
Selling and marketing expenses drop from 4% to 3% of revenue
Cash flow from Operations positive
Still trading around 6.53 PER, vs other property stocks trading at PER of 8.11 (LBS), 16.76 (SIMEPROP), 22.8 (SPSETIA), 21.37 (IOIPG), 22.74 (ECOWORLD), 17.48 (MAHSING), 18.36 (GUOCO)


Bad
Gross profit margin dropped from 34.6% to 31%
income tax on profit increase to 32% (But should be one off)
Revenue may only peak up again in 2nd to 3rd Q as Amika and Alora enters the billable progress stages

The Good points, unfortunately will still require patience to be realized, and this will expose the share to short term weakness potentially.

Let's see how the market (especially the funds) reacts then, will they buy on weakness and sustain the share price around 36 cents until next QR release.

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6 days ago | Report Abuse

So far, looks ok, we've past T3 and share price still around 39 cents.
Quarter result announcement coming up this week too.

Lets see if can reach 45 cents or not by end of the month.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Nemesis, I won't be so optimistic about RM 1 yet at this moment, too far off, and it'll need EPS of 10-15 cents per annum to fundamentally support that share price.

I'll take it QoQ and see how it goes. If they keep meet my expectations, and there's no better shares to buy, I'll stay on.

But finally after so many years, it's getting the widespread attention it deserves with calls from RHB, AMINVEST that got published in major newspapers too.

IF this is supported by an outperform/better QoQ EPS announcement next week, then it'll be the most optimum scenario.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

As spoken before also, in April, don't let short term fear force you into sales, and you ignored the long term positive risks.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

I'm still here, if able to maintain 36-38 cents for this next 5 trading days + supported by good quarter result announcement, it will break 42 cents by end of the month

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3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Annual report review.

Another forumer from klse screener say 'cold eye' Fong Si Ling became top 30 Avaland shareholder in the latest AR.

There is a Fong SiLing with 20 million Avaland shares in the top 30, but not really sure if it's really him or someone else with similar name.

Besides him, if you review the top 30 shareholders, also can see a lot more funds in there as well.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

Lim Kok Boon stop being related to MCT in 2018/2019 already. So Haziqaz, maybe your intention is good, but if you read it properly and summarized/understand in full, you will know it's not worth to mention ya.. appreciate your intention, but your post don't add value unfortunately

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

this Lim Kok Boon case is in 2012 one, if you read the news in full detail. When MCT is GW Plastics, also Lim Kok Boon do not hold senior management/directorship in Avaland/MCT/or even top 30 shareholders for a long time d..

So actually this news no relevance at all ya.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

As long as quarterly EPS of 2 cents per share is maintained, and can be sustained for the next 2 quarters, long term outlook is still there for this share, people who de-risk now, would provide a good entry point for others, provided your trading plan revolve around at least quarterly basis.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

While taking into account the short term negative risks, don't forget your long term positive risks also ya. The recent property index ballooned a lot of other property counters share price too, however, most of them are not supported by EPS. Which naturally should come down, however Avaland has fundamental support.

Key mid term positive risks
Next week - Annual Report published, may give insight to sales of their projects, additional plans for the year.
Next month - Quarterly result announcement, if a 2 cent EPS can be maintained, (which is expected, because their ongoing billable projects is still not in tail end, can say at peak billable state actually for the upcoming 1, 2 more quarters), you'll still have a company that'll give EPS of 8 cents per year. PE 5 even at 40 cent share price.
Amika sales - From official sources APDL just released in March and Avaland finalizing the SPA from bookings in March, from unofficial channels, sales already reach 50+% level. If these sales were not booked into unbilled sales before (due to SPA and APDL not ready), there could be an additional of unbilled sales over 200m just from Amika alone for the upcoming quarter announcement. However, it's also possible that Avaland have booked these sales also, and this event will not add too much to unbilled sales

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

:D stay on xuxu, sama sama ride. Today volume is exceptional, first hour already about 50% of the volume on Thursday.

Seems like all who want to take quick profit, T+2,3 have been fully bought out already.

As mentioned before, this is a fundamental shift, that totally invalidates all prior trading pattern/technical support/resistance.

Share price is like 2.5 years high, earnings is like 4-5 years high??

Would be good if it can close at 30.5 cents by end of today, and stay within 29.5 to 30.5 for this week to confirm all the T+7 trader exit.

Unless some research house initiate coverage/news interview coming, won't have much more news/guidance until their AGM in April I guess. I'll share more by then if have noteworthy items.

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2024-02-23 10:41 | Report Abuse

Anyway, can't rush la, maybe too many ppl sold at 20 - 25 cent, so now have opportunity for a lot to unload/take quick profit at 29c.

Give it a week, those T2/T7 traders will exit, and we'll see if a new support can be formed around 29 cents. If yes, this price will be the average price paid for most recent existing shareholders already, supporting a new uptrend potentially to 40 cents by May.

Signing off now, hope to see you guys in the AGM or in May again as we review their next QR performance.

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2024-02-22 10:42 | Report Abuse

sometimes don't feel like commenting too much also. you can see some traders who proudly announced they exited at 29 cents in other forums. As a fundamental investor, if you are able to buy avaland shares at 29 cent, giving you 8 (27% earning to share price) to 10(34% earning to share price) cents EPS for the next 1 year, why would you sell?

Xuxu is also another trader who jumped on the boat, and will probably take profit at 10, 15% or cut loss in the next 1 week and won't be around anymore.

Short term, the share price will be under certain trader influence, as they'll probably use margin/or T+2/T+7 trading facility to 'bet' with no intention of picking up the shares, resulting in cut loss/selling later in the next few days.

i myself like most 'investors' started of my journey long time ago, doing exactly the same things i keep seeing happening, taking short profit, cutting losses, jumping around from one share to the next, but overtime, from personal experience these type of trading mentality will lose you more money than you will gain.

Example, if you sell Avaland now, what other shares that fundamentally can give u 27%+ EPS per year in the entire Bursa?

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2024-02-22 08:55 | Report Abuse

Let's not talk about RM 1+ so soon la, Nemesis.
A lot still depend on the profile of our fellow existing shareholders.

Avaland have already done what they can do in terms of improving and turning the company around at this moment.

Now how far/how fast the share price for Avaland can rise depends also largely on our shareholders holding power.

All along, Avaland shareholders do not have good holding power... Maybe we have a high % of traders/speculators active.

But over time, hopefully the new shareholders are able to value the company accordingly and have patience to see it out.

If Avaland can maintain such profit record for 3 more quarters, it's possible to talk about some dividends in the 4th or 5th upcoming quarter.
That will be the next major fundamental shift event that will happen.

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2024-02-21 18:39 | Report Abuse

You can compare Avaland EPS vs EPS of IOIPG, ECOWORLD, UEM Sunrise, UOADev
These are TOP TOP branded property developers share price over RM1, over RM1.50, over RM2.00, their Q EPS some is actually lower than Avaland's now!

Let's say their next Q EPS drops by 30% la, it's still 1.8cents EPS, again a quarterly EPS that's comparable with top 10 listed property developers in Malaysia.

Trading at shareprice of 30, 40, 50 cents vs RM1, RM 1.80, RM 2.20!

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2024-02-21 18:31 | Report Abuse

in share trading, i have a term 'fundament shift' for events that's so major, that it totally shifts and invalidates all prior technical support/resistance.

Even as an Avaland believer, long term investor, I was only cautiously optimistic for a consistent 1.25 cent eps x 4 x 10 for a 50 cent max TP.

But if you look at two of these items QoQ
1) Unbilled sales in Q3 vs Q4 867m vs 863m. Yes the unbilled sales dropped a bit, BUT the billed portion for this quarter is 261 million !!!
867m - 261m, if 0 new sales in the quarter = 606m unbilled sales.
863m - 606m = 257m NEW unbilled sales portion for this quarter ALONE. If you add in the fact that some of this quarter sales is actually billable within the same quarter, their quarterly sales maybe 300m.

2) Net cash from operations. Last year -126m vs this year 49m positive cash flow.
A net change in operation cashflow of 175m year over year.

I hope existing shareholders can keep holding on til the next quarter and see where it goes, don't take profit too soon.

Even at 33 cents, if u divide it by the yearly EPS, of lets say 6 cents la, its like PER 5x only!


It's hard to evaluate how much TP to give it when your past comparisons/or past support/resistance values have been based around quarterly EPS of 1 cents

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2024-02-21 17:30 | Report Abuse

QR announced, 2.58 EPS THIS QUARTER ALONE!
Cumulative EPS this year 4.53 cents

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2024-02-18 10:50 | Report Abuse

Avaland will announce quarter result this week, things to lookout for.

1) Can revenue still increase quarter over quarter. I'll estimate have 60% chance that this may still be possible, maybe 10% q over q.

2) Avaland became net cash flow from operations positive in the previous quarter, I expect this to continue, and we start to see stronger balance sheet, with higher cash in hand and higher income from interest/ or lower debt / interest cost if the extra cash flow goes into pairing down debts.

3) % of sales of recent launches reporting, alora, amika, casa embun phase 2, especially those for alora will be an important figure as it'll indicate demand and how soon avaland can launch their next 4 phases in usj 25. 45% ++ is excellent figures.

4) EPS is expected to be around 1.25 cents.

Overall, this quarter result will fundamentally change the company and puts it into a strong footing of consistently earning 4cents++ EPS per year moving ahead.

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2024-02-04 16:10 | Report Abuse

Have recent changes in the top 4th to 8th largest shareholders it seems.

On 16th Jan there're 8.7 million shares sold via direct business transactions at 26.5 cents.
Top 1st 3 shareholders is Ayalaland.
Only the top 4th to 8th largest shareholders have shares exceeding this amount, but less than 5% threshold.

On that day itself also, trade volume in the open market is also quite significant.
If the buyer is the same person, it could indicate potentially a fund/funds is taking position in Avaland. Maybe forming a strong support at 25-26 cents range.

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2024-01-17 17:07 | Report Abuse

I'm more of a longer term investor, contrary to what I see happening now where everyone wants to buy at bottom, if few days don't increase, they panic and will cut loss or sell at no profit (but lose trading fees), I hope to promote a more long term mindset to other investors, try to avoid too many buy and sells, imagine each buy and sell transaction you have to pay like 0.x% to brokerage, stamp duty, sst etc...

Avoid taking profit early too, imagine you gain 5% but you may pay 0.8% out of it to all these fees, over time all of them adds up very fast.

Do your homework properly before buying a share, and if other ppl cut loss to push the share price down (for whatever reasons they have to sell at a loss) then their loss is your gain as you'll be comfortable to average down.

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2024-01-17 16:51 | Report Abuse

I've been with avaland for so many years. lol.... my posts here goes back, 2, 3 years ago? I'm still here.

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2024-01-17 16:49 | Report Abuse

Avaland on track for average of 1 cent+ EPS per quarter moving on, cash flow from operations have also just turned to positive +30m per quarter.

In just 2, 3 quarters, the entire balance sheet can turnaround to higher net cash very fast.

If you value 9x EPS, avaland is worth 36 cents.
If you value it based on 60% discount to NAPS, it's also worth 36 cents.

The above is very moderate valuation methods.

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2024-01-02 11:38 | Report Abuse

Happy new year everyone, continue from my last posting, last time able to read a bit only, but today The Star post a more detailed information for the RHB buy call, got say TP of 40 cents.

But I'm not able to find the full RHB Invest analyst report though in I3. 40 cents TP, to me is a fair starting price target, based on their EPS per year of 4cents + (PER 10x) and NAPS of 60 cents.

We can expect a revision of TP as Avaland posts QRs that beat expectation.

RHB Research has put a fair value of 40 sen per share on Avaland with the valuation based on a 60% discount to its restated net asset value.


https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/01/02/avaland-in-for-stronger-earnings-momentum

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2023-12-28 15:48 | Report Abuse

Saw this news yesterday

Seems like RHB did some coverage on Avaland, but I'm not too sure if it's an actual Buy call with what TP.

"Strong earnings momentum ahead. The house expects Avaland to reach about MYR500m and MYR700m in property sales in FY23F-24F."

https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2023/12/27/avaland-what-changed-and-why-the-upbeat/

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2023-12-15 15:19 | Report Abuse

Bursa Malaysia Bhd on Thursday announced 11 new additions to the constituents of the FTSE4Good Bursa Malaysia (F4GBM) Index and 11 new additions to the constituents of the FTSE4Good Bursa Malaysia Shariah (F4GBMS) Index following the latest semi-annual review of the indices.

The bourse said the new constituents of both indices are Advanced Synergy, Avaland, Classic Scenic, Datasonic Group, Gamuda, Kawan Food, Kinergy Advancement, Kossan Rubber, MSM Malaysia Holdings, OCK Group and TDM.

Addition of Avaland into FTSE4Good Bursa Malaysia (F4GBM) Index by Bursa Malaysia is a good recognition of its fundamentals

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1248799

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2023-12-14 12:54 | Report Abuse

Not promoting anything, small fish here also, just sharing the actual numbers, you can make your own informed decisions. Investor/trader mindset is more and more short term now, so have a lot of cut loss if not profitable in few days, or weeks.

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2023-12-13 17:21 | Report Abuse

no choice one la, have to wait til next q result, avaland also just turned from profitable but negative cash flow from operation, to positive cash flow of 30m from operations in this quarter. the share is cold, so those buying would need some holding power.

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2023-12-12 20:12 | Report Abuse

Teladan setia for example another property developer.

Share price RM1.02
Last 4 quarters EPS 2.92, PER 34.71
NAPS 0.64

Avaland share price 0.225
Last 4 quarters EPS 2.97, PER 7.58
NAPS 0.62

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2023-12-12 19:21 | Report Abuse

If your sort by PE Ratio and filter out PTBV more than 0.4, Avaland actually top 4 or 5!

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2023-12-12 19:14 | Report Abuse

fundamentally it's a good share.

Go to klsescreener, stock screener, main board > property, sort by PE RATIO
Avaland is actually number 15

Klse screener, main board > property, sort by PTBV (Price to book value)
Avaland is actually number 13

Most importantly the revenue is sustainable with high unbilled sales, not one off earnings, that other companies who rank better may have.

Just that maybe property not in play at the moment, and avaland since mct times always seems like shareholder lack holding power/high % of active traders who easily cut loss/take quick profit??

Not much can be done now, existing shareholders shld hold, and only sell at a profit. Don't cut loss on a profitable and fundamentally strong company if you can! That doesn't make sense.

Others selling, could be due to certain reasons, or their entry price may have been low, it's actually a good time to buy more now, but some holding power is required 3-6 months, wait for their QR announcement as catalyst, or wait for property play as catalyst.

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2023-11-22 18:28 | Report Abuse

But to be honest, that's also the market la, can't really avoid the traders or speculators.

Hopefully, with much improved fundamentals AND Avaland turning operational cash flow positive, there will be higher percentages of investors that values it properly, which will support a good share price.

I think they just need to get some of those 'analysts' to cover the stock and bring it to attention more and it'll be properly valued.

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2023-11-22 17:59 | Report Abuse

Fundamentally Avaland is there. 1.18 EPS x 4, 4.72 annual eps.

Current share price, is just 5.4 PER
Not to mention NAPS of 62 cents.
Unbilled sales is reported at 867million so current EPS is maintainable


But generally in bursa, investors quite short term mindset, take early profit or cut loss.

If you ask me, why would anyone sell the share at more than 50% discount to NAPS and trading at 5.4x PER

Problem with the share price is more towards current shareholders that's selling easily, or want quick in quick out to be honest

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2023-08-24 09:54 | Report Abuse

forming new support at 24, 23.5
Still have a lot of shareholders who able to buy at 13 to 20 cents exiting I guess.

Fundamentally, it's looking good and certainly the next Q result should be better, but we do have a lot of traders that is able to unload in between. May take few days to break 24 and form a new average shareholder price of 24 cent to support new uptrend.

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2023-08-16 10:56 | Report Abuse

I think we were too far ahead of the curve back then, when no one notices the share, and it was sold so cheaply at 13, 14 cents.

Anyway, now it's about the project execution and costs, and how much realized EPS.

For June 23 QR,
0.65 to 0.8 cent EPS is most likely
0.8+ EPS maybe possible

However, the best part will actually only happen in September QR results, where all their projects will enter the prime of their progress billing cycle simultaneously.
For next quarter I'm projecting EPS of
0.9 to 1 cent as most likely
1 to 1.2 cent as probable

After which, EPS should stabilized around 1 to 1.2 cent per next 2,3 quarters, (depending on how is the new launches sales)

If it goes well, we'll have 3 quarters of continuous QoQ revenue and net profit increases, which is where the share price can potentially touch 40 cents.

Again, I'm talking about the longer game, via fundamentals the above is a possible scenario, short term wise, harder to predict what can happen in between.

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2023-07-20 08:25 | Report Abuse

Yes nemesis, unbilled sales is actually good, the foundation is there already, now just need to see their execution/progress billing.

For avaland share price to meaningfully move,
1) Revenue between 90 to 120m per quarter,
2) Gross margin between 33 to 38%
3) Keeping direct operating expenses to 16 - 17m

This will result in 12 to 21m net profit per quarter.
+- 1,2m forex gain/losses.

Seems like Avaland have improved in terms of the PR as well, start to see more engagement via newspapers(The Edge), winning property awards, PR release as well in addition to just announcing the QR results.

Wait for quarter result now. Last two rounds before good and bad QR announcement, share price already moved, current uptrend may indicate good qr is expected from other investors

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2023-05-30 18:58 | Report Abuse

Post qr results update

EPS suffered due to ~4m higher than average direct & admin fees.

However, unbilled sales is at 790 million as of 31st Match.
This amount of unbilled sales is higher than Lagenda Property for comparison.

As all of MCTs projects is entering billable stages, it's possible for their upcoming quarterly revenue recognition to be at 100m, with 33% of gross margin. 33m gross profit.

Deducting 17m in direct operating expenses, 16m profit before tax and 12m profit after tax is possible.

Entering oversold territory, comparing against other property counters, MCT have much more in terms of earning visibility, net asset per shares but is trading at much lower share price.

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2023-03-09 10:10 | Report Abuse

let's see if it can be supported at around 18 to 20 cent for these next 2 to 8 weeks, and we'll have AR released then that'll offer more visibility/aid in our decision making.

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2023-03-09 09:50 | Report Abuse

Wasn't expecting the buying volume suddenly.

It's a bit hard to estimate the fair value at this moment for MCT, especially since
1) the company just started to turnaround (from a profitability/EPS perspective, if based on yearly EPS of 4 cents, PE 10 worth 40 cents)
2) Fundamental change, historical prices of 10, 12, 14 cents is now totally invalid as a reference, due to change from loss making to profit making
3) if based on NAPS, of course, it's ~60 cents
4) Today's OPR result may be supportive of Property counters if rate maintained.
5) 720m unbilled sales at Dec 2022 is a record 4 years high? You will need to go back to AR 2018, for unbilled sales of 814m
6) Overall, the property index is also running up, maybe there's a wider property sector interest too

I think just based on the above which is fact, TP of even 30 cents is reasonable for the next 3 to 6 months. In this period, a few events will add further support to the 30 cents+ TP, Casa Embun and Alora sales/reception, progress billing for current projects etc.

For the immediate 1 week to 2 months, a lot will depend on the new buyers now, do they stay for a longer period or they are happy to take small profit, or worst, cut loss.

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2023-03-01 23:37 | Report Abuse

Don't want to say too much anymore, but as usual, if you're a shareholder, do try to wait until annual report is out in 2 months time, after which will have more visibility into their sales.

To be honest, I wasn't expecting such an aggressive land acquisitions so fast, and they are doing high end developments as well.

If want to be positive, these land purchases can be taken as a sign that they have sold out or close to selling out all their launches, to be fair to them as well, their last two lands purchased from Tropicana seems to be successfully launched as well.

Hope for the best and see you all after the next QR announcement

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2022-12-15 19:10 | Report Abuse

Yes agreed that it's deeply undervalued in the 3 to 9 months, but I feel even 3 months also seems like a very long time frame and some may cut loss or take early profit.

Have not really seen MCT billing their recently VP-ed project in Lakefront.... Or maybe they split the invoicing across two quarters? There's still a potential for a bumper profit in the upcoming QR as the VP billable amount for their recently handed over project could worth up to 80, 90 million just by itself.

Other than that, their interest charges should drop by 6 to 7 million like that as well. With the repayment of their 560m loan from holding co.

Taxation should normalize too after that.

Their OneCity project also is reviving in terms of office and shop lots rental, with their carpark rental being well occupied too.

They still have an uncompleted mall and tower 4 in skypark cyberjaya. This building is just opposite of MRT station which will open in Jan 2023... If tower 5 and 6 receives good occupancy, tower 4 will benefit from revaluation and potential rental income as well.

For myself, most of the negatives and stormy seas have already been sailed through, hope existing shareholders don't sell so soon....

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2022-10-13 09:24 | Report Abuse

MCT really need to improve their IR... (which to be fair, they have been improving)

Persona Metro, another public listed company just announced construction contract awarded to begin construction on 25th October of sanderling lakefront project. This usually means the project has at least 30% SPA signed.

Surprisingly, pilling works seems to have been completed as well? Construction period of 24 months seems too short if foundation works has not been started (Usually pilling and foundation works will take 9 to 12 months of entire development time)

Unbilled sales is potentially around 800 million now. (700m from Aetas, Alira, Casa Bayu + 30% of Sanderling GDV ~100m), income visibility for the next two years is be very consistent now.

But again, very low visibility of the counter to retail investors, and buying volume is very weak. Share price is exposed to price drop when existing shareholders need to exit in short term. Buy only if you have holding power of 2 months++ otherwise you will need to cut and sell at a loss.

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2022-10-11 14:01 | Report Abuse

Low liquidity is still an ongoing issue, if you buy, make sure to have holding power for a month and a half onwards, despite good net assets and the company turning back to profitability from the coming quarter result.

Financially, 3rd Q result coming in a month and half time, should continue to improve, supported by lakefront homes vacant possession revenue recognition of ~ 90 million, + additional progress billings from casa bayu, park place, all in, revenue could be between 110 to 130 million.

In the 4th q, while the 110m++ earnings will not be sustainable, mct should still be profitable, due to Aetas will be in a almost full quarter of revenue generating period, with construction progress already reaching the 4th floor of residential units for tower 2 as of 1st week in October. while tower 1 residential units will start to be built in October too. Balance sheet wise, borrowings should drop to 150m to 200m from the 550m loan from holding co, and interest charges will also reduce by 3 to 4m per quarter moving onwards. Accordingly, income tax is also expected to be lower as well by 1 to 2m.

After which, the future next 4 quarter of performance of mct will be supported by continuos progress billings of casa bayu, aetas and Alira which have both recorded up to ~ 75% sales overall. Any new launches (casa Embun, sanderling or Narra) in this last 3 months will continue to provide consistent income visibility for FYE2023

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2022-10-11 09:14 | Report Abuse

Very good value and low risk to reward ratio for those who are able to buy now.
Whoever is selling, is certainly selling at losses now.

Fundamentally, MCT have over 700m in unbilled sales just from their 3 ongoing projects of Aetas, Alira and Casa Bayu.

Their new launches, Casa Embun Phase 1 booking seems positive and should be successfully launched, providing a good continuous earning visibility.

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2022-08-24 22:59 | Report Abuse

Overall, current price risk to reward ratio does favor the buyer, but low liquidity and buying interest makes it hard for shareholder to exit quickly, without selling at a steeper discount.

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2022-08-24 22:57 | Report Abuse

QR Update.
Expectations vs Reality, overall original assessment in May still remains, we're looking at the 3rd and 4th quarter result for higher revenue, and eventually lower interest paid and lower taxation (from unclaimable interest expense) to kick in. 1st Q of 2023 onwards should be able to maintain profitable quarters consistently, provided their target of successfully launching 2 projects per year is achieved.

Cons
VP progress billing for market homes missed to be billed in Q2.

Pros
Overall, QoQ improved, and loss narrowed from 11m to 4m

For earnings visibility
Missing the VP billing for lakefront in June quarter is a negative, but it means that 3rd Q result will be good, potentially around 110m in revenue.

4th quarter earnings will depend upon Aetas and Casa Bayu progress billing maybe Alira phase 2 foundation billing.

Risks
Construction workers, and building material increase, market uncertainty in the next 3 months, opportunity costs.

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2022-07-07 16:45 | Report Abuse

Some update, profit for upcoming quarter maybe very good... Depending on VP payment and progress billing if can bill in 2nd or 3rd quarter ...

If you're reading this and you're shareholder already, the price now is at 2020 March low, during MCO 1.0 announcement.. are things really as bad as that period? No right, I hope existing shareholders don't sell at this bottom.

If you're reading this to buy, again can use same assessment, are we really at the most fearful period in mco 1 announcement back in March 2020? It is really heavily oversold...

MCT unbilled sales have increased up to 520m as officially announced in last AR.

It's possible that unbilled sales could reach up to 600m already now, with Alira sales around 80% already, Aetas is 70% sold while Casabayu is 65% sold.

Amongst property developers MCT actually have around 4million of completed and unsold properties! At 500k per house, that means 8 units of unsold home only ....

There is a lot of good value for buyers, while for existing shareholders, do try to hold until the upcoming q result if possible, just 1 and half month more to go only.



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2022-05-26 17:50 | Report Abuse

Oh ya, forgot to mention, in 2021, MCT loss about MYR 22 million to their construction subsidiary, (Remember, MCT used to have their own in house construction team) to build their projects before 2020.

Again, this is where the good news comes in, MCT have since fully sub contract construction works out, so, YoY, it's not likely to incur the -22m loss from their construction department.

So, that's the frank story of MCT, good entry if you have the patience, or if you can accumulate on a monthly basis until their year end.

But again, will subject to near term risks for the next 6 to 9 months :(

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2022-05-26 17:42 | Report Abuse

Hi snowball, to be honest, you'll be looking at a good result for MCT in the 4th quarter results, this next 6 months, the results will be so so only.

Please verify on your own, what is said.

To answer you, interest cost, this is due to the loan MCT took from Ayala in 2018/2019 like that, around 120m++ USD, interest rate around 6%, that's why every year need to pay ~32million in interest.

Why so much loan (500+m MYR) vs low level of sales, I believe they used the money to rush out the completion of projects back then, after those projects were completed around 2020 (When MCT recorded one of their higher profits) of course Covid comes, and it effected their new launches, imagine if without covid, Aetas and Alira were launched 1 year earlier, and at this time, the revenue from these two projects (or more projects) would be just nice to cover the interest and generated profits.

Worst of all, after the intercompany loan is approved, goverment implemented taxation on intercompany loans, whereby, interest paid to controlling shareholders is not tax deductible expense. Again, got hit not only by interest, you'll also got hit by taxation as well. MCT's tax rate is insanely high... 30 to 40% ish? I didn't really verify the exact percentages for you...

That's the bad news, but having said all of that, this is where the better news is coming in.

If you check 2020 Annual Report, their unbilled sales is ~RM 320m
If you check the 2021 Annual Report, (EVEN AFTER BILLING minus RM 320m sales), they still have UNBILLED SALES of RM 510m!

Basically, in the year 2021, with covid, with lockdown, MCT sold RM 510m of new homes! Impressive numbers...

This RM 510m sales is from Aetas, Alira, Casa Bayu, which for aetas and alira, is only in the unbillable constructions stage unfortunately. Aetas will hit their residential unit construction in the 3rd quarter, while Alira probably will bill the first 10% in December (assuming foundation works takes a year)

Back to your interest topic, the MYR 500m + loan this figure have moved from Long Term Liability to Short Term Liability in Dec 2021 QR, which means, yes, this pain in the ass Loan/Interest/Tax payment will be replaced with local banking borrowings, that is more realistic with the current activity level, and at a lower interest rate amount as well.

Yes, like that loh, if you're entering now, it's really a good good point to enter, Net Asset 50+ cents, but, please, do prepare to hold up to minimum 6, ideally 9 months for this investment to turn around :(

I wouldn't want you to buy and cut loss in the next 1 to 3 months.
Myself also in the boat, and plan to see it through til year end.