for now, till the release of the 2Q.. fundamentally week.. technically week.. + external and internal factors.. few red flag for me.. few major risk and red flags,. but still, undervalued by price evaluation..
so i will be sideway with my popcorn watching bull vs bear..
Big property counters with big land banks riding on DC wave. Ecoworld , YTL , IOIP, Sime or Mah Sing riding the DC wave. Small caps with limited land banks hard to play the DC wave
HLIB calling a buy on the big cap property counters. Sunway , IOIP or Sime darby that may or benefit from the relaxation MM2H program. Not the small cap counters.
Trending upP...Ayala Land will surely transform Avaland from a small cap developer to be one of the largest developers in Msia...Strong management team coupled with sheer determination to always be the best...I have full confident in their powerful management and leadership from the Philippines...This is easily a 1.00 stock in 2-3 years to come...Reiterate BUY!
KUALA LUMPUR (July 30): Avaland Bhd (KL:AVALAND) topped out Alira Subang Jaya, a serviced residence in Tropicana Metropark, Subang Jaya, which has achieved a 95% take-up rate, on Monday (July 29), according to a press statement on Tuesday.
Actually, the problem with Avaland is due to our own fellow Avaland investors themselves, as long as we have fellow investors willing to take quick few % profits, or worst cut loss, the share price will hard to appreciate. Don't say Mahsing etc in the property area, plenty of other shares in KLSE that doesn't make sense or justified with high PE, but people keep buy into them, and eventually get burned like the recent tech crash.
With the latest unbilled sales of 950m locked, 1H new property sales of about 470m, Avaland is on track to finish 2024 with ~900m new sales for the year, supporting consistent EPS of 1.5-1.7 per share, reducing finance charges, improving cash flow and net cash per share to eventually possible dividends 1 year+ later, but these are long term goals, and I really doubt most of the investors look at such horizon anymore.
Having said that, there are some positive indicators if you study the top 30 shareholders.
We start to have more big names, international funds buying in, one of the MCT founders Berry Goh have already reduced his shares YoY, and maybe disposed all already by now, another MCT founder Tong could be the only source of 'big sales' pressure only.
What could sustain the share price, and stage a long term rise would mostly depend on these 2 groups of large shareholders, if QoQ the financial performance is good, the funds may continue to increase their stake, buying out the retailers.
The fed rate cut may also contribute positively as well, as it will free up more funds from the US to be invested elsewhere, hopefully Malaysia can be the beneficiary of the inflow as well
Subang Jaya, 20 November 2024 – Property developer Avaland Berhad (“Avaland”) sustained its positive momentum as the Group more than doubled its net profit to RM68.2 million in the nine months period ended 30 September 2024 (“9M2024”) from RM28.5 million in the previous corresponding period. The improved bottomline was achieved on the back of 91.7% higher revenue of RM664.4 million in 9M2024 against RM346.6 million in 9M2023. The increase in revenue was mainly contributed by advanced construction work progress from its ongoing projects coupled with commendable take-up of recently launched projects, namely Casa Embun Phase 2, Amika Residences, Aetas Seputeh and Anja Residences & Signature Retail. For the third quarter ended 30 September 2024 (“3Q2024”), Avaland registered a net profit of RM25.4 million on revenue of RM231.5 million. As a comparison, the Group reported a net profit of RM17.2 million on revenue of RM156.2 million in the previous corresponding quarter.
Any idea whether Avaland is gonna announce dividend policy soon? With current unbilled sales of 986 mil as of end of Sept, that should provide strong earning visibility for 3 years to come...its parent company Ayala Land is a dividend company so hopefully Avaland will also share its profits as dividend with shareholders soon...
Avaland has already planned 1.5 bil launches next year 2025 so its total unbilled sales will continue its strong n sustainable growth moving forward...this is definitely a growth stock in the making now the only catalyst to propel the stock higher to align to its fair value is dividend declaration which I believe is possible given its strong growth...
Nemesis, for dividend to be declared, they will need more net cash from operations, don't forget this quarter is their first quarter with ~53m net cash from operations.
Moving on they shld be able to keep 50m+ net cash from ops per quarter, with 200m net cash from operations for fye2025. Deduct 100m for land purchase, deduct 50m for net debt reduction, and I see some possibility for 20m in dividend payment?
Don't forget Avaland 9 months earning now is already the highest amongst all annual earnings in their 14 years of history! + The 4th quarter earnings, it will be highest annual earnings and highest ever net profit in total.
Record high earning, record high net profit! Shld be supported by record high share price :)
Also, for investors who're not aware Avaland have about 250m aset in unfinished property development in their Skypark Cyberjaya project, their mall and tower 4 (hotel)
Previously, MCT wanted to keep these assets and operate for recurring income. This two buildings just resumed back their construction, and should be finished by Dec or latest, I think by 1st Q 2025.
Let's see how their management is able to execute, I believe if they resume their works and want to finish the building construction, they should have a buyer/plan to operate the buildings.... if yes, that'll positively impact the income moving forward too.
This is something they've not widely shared though, and maybe of interest to you all.
Ayala Land is a well known largest developer in the Philippines...I m sure it will maintain its good reputation to share its profits with shareholders in all of its subsidiaries...
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
nemesis
3,994 posts
Posted by nemesis > 2024-05-27 23:52 | Report Abuse
Could come back down to 0.35 tomolo