Take the above with a grain of salt, just my own deduction from the way that pieces seems to fall in nicely one by one.. of course it could all be a coincidence only.

I will salute kenanga if they revise the TP while it was still at 40c. But publishing it after it hit 69? @@ so convenient for them to change the TP by up to 100% just over 2 months since the last q announcement?

The sustained buying power in this case seems to be from someone with inside knowledge of what is abt to happen next, with the dividend announcement and then with this TP revision. I'm not normally one to talk abt speculative things like this (I'm more of a fundamental guy) but now that the story is almost finished I think most of us can see the 'strategy' that went into this bull run...

U look u will know the strategy now that it has happened. The accumulation happened and then the TP from kenanga is 'published' after accumulation ended, the TP from kenanga is still saying 85c TP. Assuming the kenanga report is targeted at the general public, u will get an idea on how the play happened.

Timing of the TP announcement is after the big buy activities have pushed it up to 69c. A bit of a coincidence, and could be someone knows abt the kenanga TP

Kenanga give good TP of 85c, oh well, I have to admit I got it wrong with my exit :)

When notion thread suddenly have ppl like Audi n bigbos posting, time to be afraid :P
But seriously I'm impressed by the support so far. This round of purchase is supported quite well by either a single person with big pocket/funds or a lot of small persons

I'm just being realistic at the moment, like i say, currently based on what we know, that would be a realistic price. Unless it have an earning of 2.5sen per share in the next q. EPS of 2.5 sen per share is like almost a 50% increase in net profit QoQ. Could it jump so high in just 1 quarter? Maybe, but is it possible so fast, not likely.

Also, manufacturing will have to pay foreign worker levy starting this year. So there is some negative aspect to offset the positive aspect as well. These is still some uncertainty and I'm surprised suddenly everybody is all positive about notion earning big bucks.

I'm just saying in short term (under what we know in the current situation) i don't put it past 72cents max. If it announced a 2c++ next Q, then yes, 80c is possible.

Anyway, just be careful for those coming in now. As I don't understand people who sold it < 40 cents all the past year, I don't quite understand why people is buying it above 60 cents at this moment, with what information we know. Unless the buyer have insider information la, then that's a different case.

The risk/reward is more like 50% 50% now.. you may gain 10%-20% but u can lose 10-20% as well.

A 20% gain from 60 cents is 72 cents price.
20% loss will send it back to 50 cents.

I'm looking for another share which can give me 30-50% gain again :) see which thread I pop up in again if u wanna follow me

Heart pain sure got la well, but u all should know i've been talking abt notion when it's <40 cents.. I exited with 50% gain already... so it's still a good profit.
Even if I didn't sold at 57, i would still have sold at 61 cent, so i'm quite sure I won't hit the 66.5 cent max which happened today.

You can't always get the bottom, and can't always get the top. Once u accepted this fact, there's no need to heart pain.

Party is over, profit taking/cut loss coming up. U traders pushed it up n now u will take the fall

For those buying in at 63cent plus, mind to share why r u buying it and what TP u want to sell? Assume u want a 10% profit at least, ur sell price would b 70c, and assume the buyer at 70c also want a 10% profit, he would sell at 77cent. Is 77++ cent possible at this moment? I think it may have gotten overbought with the sudden interest in this share. Just my 2cent here

another 1 cent dividend, seems like someone got news ahead of this @@

You cant get the bottom, and you can't get the top.

Let's see how it goes, big volume can be destructive volume as well if those volumes are from weak hands. You make your buy n sell decisions based on your best decision, so let it be ba....

the volume just non stop coming in

@@ i've exited my positions already... but looks like I'm gonna regret it. Lol

yes, immediately after my 54 matched, jumped to 56. wtf.. lol

it's been a crazy few years indeed.. fyi i took some profit at 54+

Is the spike up these 2 days, from traders who will pump and dump once they hit their target, or is it from longer term investor who will hold.. that's the question now...

@@ someone remembers me.. and im still here lol, tq and happy new year too

u wait volume, it will be too late when u c it

One thing which I don't like about notion is, i believe they're very picky in choosing their customer, and they were very slow in getting business for the unused machines. Hopefully, now that they've finally identified a customer/partner, it's going to be a win win situation for both Notion and their new customer.

At 90%++ machine utilization, the revenue and EPS will hopefully hit 2.5c++

They say this is from their HDD business which is very strict with the measurement/qc requirement. assuming 100m from HDD sales per year, 9.3m writeoff is about 10% of their total HDD sales d.. quite significant figure i must say.

Important thing now is 2
1) The impact of USD to notion's revenue in the 1st Q FY2017 results. We have already confirmed from OCT-NOV confirmed very good forex. And starting now DEC, it's still at 4.40+
2) While forex may come and go... what I was really waiting for the MOST is operationally they increased their revenue and reduce idle unused machines. They took loan, invested a lot in CNC machine on SLR business expansion... and when the SLR business is gone, the excess depreciation really hit the rest of the business's margins.
With the new factories (52000 sq feet in total) we could be seeing overall machine utilization at 90+% this will be a VERY VERY important milestone. And I'd really like to see how's the next Q result is gonna be. If the new customer is able to provide the sales volume, notion can then be in a position to choose to reduce HDD sales which is very hard to meet in terms of QC wise.

Quite conservative TP upgrade for Notion from Kng... as expected, it needs another Q result to come in at 1.5+eps. After which, i'll be surprised if TP it not at least 60-70 cents.

:) 1.73 cent EPS this Q, with 1 cent dividend :) :)

IF, just IF they don't mess it up this Q's result (just a reasonable figure of at least 1 sen EPS) + next Q result is mostly gonna be great just from the confirmed forex exchange rates of October, up to end of November. Getting these 2 q results in a row will be explosive for notion

good advice :) while they 'should' be profitable this q.. aih there's always this risk that they have something crazy happening.

Can expect 1-1.5 sen EPS... notion have a big variable in their 'other income'... this row sometimes can b -1m but sometimes can be +ve 6m..
Maybe even +9m for this q... very big swing..

Core business wise, qoq, HDD should recover 10-15%, SLR assume same sales, automotive same or +5% should b realistic figures to expect

This depreciation is happening at a time when notion is totally unhedged already, but will only take effect on the Q result of (October-December 16) to be announced on ~Feb 2017..

If notion don't mess it up while just maintaining existing revenue its good enough.

But most importantly, fundamentally they need to secure new customers to replace Nikon/SLR, if they can do this with the unexpected forex environment now, it'll be a super big bonus.

Time to deliver notion management...

dont talk abt hedges please... just common sense u will know hedge will only be offered by the banks IF the banks believe they will profit from signing the contract with you..

you want to play currency with the master of currency(the banks?) comeon...
I want to sign RM5 to 1 USD hedging contract for 2 years, who will accept? (Almost sure win contract to me, you can say, but no banks will accept)

If the banks accept your hedging contract, by common sense, it's a contract that after analyzing all risks, the banks believe they will profit from it...

Also now is strong usd period. Probability for USD rising is more, than USD falling.
(Pro USD reasons)
1) Fed rate hike in Dec
2) Oil price may fall if OPEC don't agree oil production cut in end Nov.
3) Bank negara lower interest rate.

Con USD reasons
1) Oil price increase...


1.5 months of forex above 4.16 for FY 2017, 1st Quarter now... (October up to now) if notion can just maintain status quo fundamentally, it's gonna be good already.

Yes, Notion is exporter so it's good.. take it day by day la. So far so good... don't want to over comment too much @@

USD to RM 4.19 now, notion hedging is already finished 100% mid august. So for september month their earning should be fully at 4.10+ range.

USD to RM stronger reason is because china lowered their currency, this is not just a short term thing.. And yes, I'm still around, although I dont say much now :)

There is still 55m hedge outstanding. A 5% gain is still about 2.5m. Hedge to me is always a 50% 50%, the banks provide d hedge contract want to profit too right? They won't so stupid give hedge contract that they sure lose one...

Well, at least he's performing his 'IR' role now.... I think this could be a sign that something will happen, at least in quarterly result wise, or other developments. He's been very quiet for the past 6-9 months already.

Stupid... Sell?? Dont make me laugh.

Think I'll drop by if I can take leave :)

can see the selling pattern, is very very short sighted sellers exiting.
the seller cancel his Q at 395 and then add to sell 390. Totally no holding power, and I'm sure he's just selling at 390 without any profit, and lose the trading fees.

Short term gamblers selling to other short term gamblers, who has higher risk of cutting lost etc....

Waiting your buying power to buy back klse, to stabilize it :P

Now the sharks/buyers are waiting anymore ppl want to cut loss or not. Once all the short term sellers exit, any buying attempts will push it up fast again

Poor val-elta have to buy some more :(

I'm a FA investor, as long as it improves Q by Q, why sell?

The fear is there because of uncertainty in the profitability. But whose information do you base to come to that conclusion? If you base your buy n sell decision on analyst calls, then good luck to you.
I'm not gonna spoon-feed other forumers anymore, just try to understand the business, go deeper n try to predict their profitability.
You will see value in it.
Personally, my prediction is wrong because of two things.
1) I didn't calculate the impact of the deffered tax losses, the impact of last q's taxation gain being balanced with a higher taxation loss this Q.
2) bonus payout to employees in December? (To be confirmed, in AR/AGM)

Both items adds up to ard 5-7m in less profits....
I learn from this and will carry the knowledge to my next q prediction for notion which I won't say tok much anymore

If they r trader/gambler/speculator they may want to sell and hope to buy lower.
If they are loaded on margin, they may want to take profit, or sell on margin call when dropping.
If they are t+7 buyers, they have to sell after q result announced.

Previously I will try to calm the panic by posting info on why you shouldn't sell now, but I kinda give up on that d... Lol

As I always say, if you cut loss, someone else will gain.

Do your own EPS estimates for the next 3 Q, and at PER 10x you'll get TP of very handsome returns, all in ~9 months or so give and take.

Fundamentally it's sound. I've been a holding for a while too. Fed delaying their interest raise is good for Notion as well, while RM is low a bit in the next few months, if timing of Fed rate hike matches Notion derivative expiry (which will happen in ~6 months (with a bit leftover in derivatives)

Lets see how the market reacts... technically, and fundamentally, it's not a bad share to buy, downside risk/upside risk reward ratio is good...

But patience is not something everyone has.......

@@ give them highly paid directors a good goreng ya

Anyway, having digested things a bit more, it's not all that doom n gloom. Dissapointment is because of too high expectations, not entirely becaused of the reaults. While the prospect of waiting another q is definitely not fun and testing, at least it's a positive step in the correct direction. Based on past quarters, Notion 1st Q is considered as a weaker quarter, so if a weak quarter already 60m++ in revenues, a good quarter can even break 70m.
While it certainly seems like a lot of reasons to justify their higher costs.
Derivative losses, machine n inventory write offs, n now deferred tax and bonus payment for the opex. The next q should b an accurate indicator for their performance moving on...

Ah.. just read Kenanga's report.. sorry a bit late on finding that.

Q result just out. Profit of 3.1m/1.16 EPS. Nothing to shout at I guess, below my expectations.

Some items of note.
Front loaded items.
*Taxation is much higher at 3.6million for this Q. Reversal from the tax gain provision when derivatives losing money. Moving on, this item should stabilize and reduce a lot in future without additional wild swing in the forex.

Without this tax item(which will be reduced next month) actual profit should be closer to 5m for 2 EPS.

-Negative points
*Opex is higher at 16m, need further clarification on the items here (bonus, factory relocation from sold factory to own factory costs?) need to see this going down in next Q, otherwise, it'll be a problem. From past year results, 4Q's average OPEX is at 10m... so it's definitely on the high side here.


-Positive points
Overall sales is stabilizing around 60m per Q at sub 4.2X to USD.
Automotive segment is growing
Inventory write off has been reduced.
With factory relocation completed, future will have savings from factory rental.

been busy~ maybe I'll do a more detailed writeup in a couple days if I can find some time for it :) 19th-24th should be Q result time.
Healthy accumulation happening now though