Overall it should be positive.
Why so?

1) the 10% discount is already currently being offered to clear stock anyway.. unsold properties and even new ones are given discount. No impact..
2) the free stamp duty is a positive news... Although not much. Again this is probably paid by property companies already as a discount (free stamp duty right c).. But this time it's free from the government... So, property developer can either profit from stamp duty savings or they can choose to maintain their stamp duty 'allowance' and convert it to extra discount for buyer.
3) additional p2p financing... This is potentially the biggest changer... A lot of problem is because bank have restriction on financing.. now property investors used to buy house n sell. For these investors, they cant flip because maybe rpgt impact is a bit more now, but clever investors can still profit as they can now borrow money to other people to buy house. Instead of paying 60k and get loan etc under your name, you can now use the 60k to loan to other ppl who want to buy house... Potentially a big win win.

Most of the insentives, is targetting the market that HY is in, ~ 300-500k range. I'm no expert, but the initial feedback from some experts seems to suggest that it's a beneficial/supportive budget for the housing sector..

For example
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/property-sector-biggest-winner-budget-2019-says-maybank-chief

Maybank CEO says property sector is the biggest winner from this budget.. but dunno how true it is la.

But... even assuming a small net benefit, I guess some good news is better than no good news at all, and among all property developers, HY do indeed stand to benefit the most from it, vs other more high end developments

Budget 2019 seems slightly positive for developers?

Got some stamp duty exemption for first time buyers/the unsold overhang mentioned by LGE...
But negative also because of rpgt...

Overall, unsure if its net positive or not.

QoQ eps increased by 86% and unbilled sales goes up by 25% from 200m to 250m.

Completed but unsold property reduced by 15% too..

The numbers are getting healthier certainly the eps does not warrant the 52week low price

Force what, they are giving me chance to buy more if it stays aymt this price longer

So much director share buy back.... Positive action..

Such huge volume yesterday.... remember CH is IDSS approved shares, probably someone trying to short sell it down... and to a large extent, failed too 3 million shares only managed to push it down 3 bids before recovering. Will be interesting to see the movement when they need to cover their shorts in the coming days.

Short term weakness hard to explain why... Maybe after the increase, some ppl no patience and cut loss..

Expect their next q earning to be 1.81-2.1 cents

And their 4th q earning to really contribute.. maybe 2.1-2.4

On average 8c eps is realistic for HH this year.
PER of about 5.5.
NAPS is about 93cents.

Ur buying price is <50 cents.... Really don't make sense for people who selling now

TP depends on your time frame..
If ur an investor that don't mind to wait 6months to 1 year, it could be at 80-100cents in 12 months..

There is a lot of growth potential, especially from 4th q onwards.
Repeat Rental income from hohup tower and some units they own from Aurora place.
KK The Crown residence project, which the cheapest two types of units already sold out.
KK The Crown hotel, completing in 2021. Which HH owns, again another repeat income
Johor kulai there's a big land/city that HH is developing.

Also in bukit jalil they will launch condo again

Personally, I'm already invested in HH earlier, and I will continue to buy monthly with my salary more n more HH shares. Anything below 50cents is a no brainier to me.. but you need to be able to wait until the 6th month..

Q2 out... got improvement in topline and btm line+ opex on the new factories dragging btm line, but it looks positive.

Also, need to consider their coming up projects at the 2nd half of the year.

Assuming nothing at all from the next 2 quarters.
4.12+3.6 also 7.7 cents EPS

Their project in KK is already in the pilling stage, possible to be revenue positive in 3rd Q.

1.81 EPS for this quarter, 4.12 EPS for the 6 months. Still very favourable results.

don't really need to emphasis on those news play, fundamentally, it's a stock that can earn 8.5 EPS (10-15% chance), 9.5 EPS(65% chance) or 10.5 EPS (15-20% chance)

For a NAPS of 92 cents company, with 9 cents EPS, trading at 40-50 cents.... it's certainly undervalued excessively.

Previously their problem is on their cash flow, take a lot of loan, for a lot of projects that are not immediately (cash flow friendly) for example, they take loan to build KK bus station for 2 year?
They take loan to build the Kulai skill hub, again, all this loan is not CASHFLOW positive...

After all these 2 years, finally, their Kulai project is done, and as a result they are paid with LAND... again not cashflow positive yet.
Their KK bus stop, is again paid with LAND, instead of cash.

There's also their decision to buy HH Tower with borrowings... again it's a negative cash flow decision.

However....

Like few months ago only the KK project is doing piling works... (So can expect the KK project to start contribute cash by 3rd or 4th Q this year)

Their Kulai land, is just recently transferred to HH, again, this project will contribute, maybe year end...

Their HH Tower purchase, they can start renting it out by August, this will offset the negative cashflow from their bank loan

Finally, HH final piece of land in Bkt Jalil, there's talks about launching condo there, again in year end.

What I'm saying is, as it is, their current profit of 2.3 cents EPS is JUST MAINLY from the Malton JV.

Over the coming quarters, there's a good visibility that next Q EPS can be maintained, next next Q EPS may increase, and finally 3 quarters later, we're gonna see the peak of their EPS.

PH government winning, it's actually a positive news for HH as well, because, if the construction works are more fairly distributed, HH stands to benefit much more too. As certainly, they're not a favoured by BN company previously.. so you may see some BN only projects, will distribute to the none BN related construction companies like HH

It's really a good time to buy just based on earnings analysis, regardless of whatever 'news' that may or may not come up...

-_- think i shared too much -_-

Bad choice Victor, 45c now, but dunno if can last and continue or not. Hope it's a longer term investor who can help realize value of HH, rather than traders pumping n dumping in a few days...

That's old news... but to me it's certainly oversold la.
They have one problem left, which is their cashflow... they still depend on borrowing, but overall their cash flow position will only improve. But this takes time... don't expect it to shoot up fast, but the downside risk is really minimal at this point.

Remember, their latest EPS of 2.3 cents is JUST from the Pavilion 2 project + their construction segment.

Their KK project already start pilling works, and will contribute in Q4 and they're launching their Johor development as well at the later end of this year.

Assuming we ignore their KK and Johor and also their own last piece of land in Bkt Jalil, the 2.3 cent EPS per q is still maintainable for the next 2.5-3 years....

2.3x4 = 9.2 eps per year.... selling at 40 cents per share now... amazing...

Wrong info just now, got share split, 1 to 2... not sure if the chart I looking at considered share split effect or not..

2.31 cent EPS, mainly earning is from the JV, at this moment.
With HH own projects in Johor and KK soft launched, and to add to revenue in the next coming 2 quarters.

10 to 15 cents EPS for FY 2018 is possible.
2.31*4 = 9.24 cents already, + 2 more cents from HH own developments in the Q3 and Q4, reasonable target.

Malton side, don't have to worry too much about it, the land is from HoHup, and there's no problems at all with this project.

The problem with Malton, is on their own project which Lim may have obtained land at lower price... not related with HH at all. Icon, you shouldn't spread incorrect information.

think it's just the general properties related down trend at the moment... there's just no buyers at all to support the price, each time buyers matched, there's no new buyers... will be under pressure for a while until Q result or some other announcement comes in

but already stopped for a while also ma... there's actually buy back activities in the last 2 months..

how do you know he's still selling now?

Especially compared with Lii Hen, Poh Huat.. their sales to US, and their margin didn't go as bad as Latitud's can't really understand what else is happening.

Whilst its net asset will provide a cushion, maybe a bottom of 300-330 (Net cash+convertable to cash items is about 2.80 per share, it's totally crazy for it to go below net cash/convertable to cash value)

Don't expect any increase in share price until they managed to pass on some costs back to their customers/or gain new customers, or shift more of their sales from VN to MY.

This potentially could take a long time, 6 months to a year, but any turnaround in revenue, will result in them shooting back up quite fast... Latitud is a high risk/uncertainties, high gain type of stock d.

Actually rubber wood export from malaysia to china/vietnam was increasing also, until the gov started the rubberwood export ban. But fundamentally, can't defend the company also la... their margin compressed by so much, compared with Poh Huat who have operations in Vietnam too... so, yeah, I did cut loss a bit.

To me their ability to ramp up sales from their Msian factory indicates there's still some 'moat' available to them, their msian sales should tap into their Msian lumber mill, which we should be able to see the impact on their coming Q results..

I disagree that historical earnings should be ignored entirely. The historical earnings is a short summary of their customer profiles and production capability, and the customer relationships which although may have changed due to a new competitor giving a cheaper price, but the relationship can be potentially reactivated again if the circumstances is valid.

Past earning also reflects the income generation capacity. A company that does 10m in sales cannot realistically ramp up to 50m sales in 1 quarter, but a company that did make 50m in sales, while dropping to 40m still have the base production capability intact to go back up to 50m.

Latitude uses a sort of natural hedge where they pay their vendor in USD as well, so the forex drop will not hurt as much vs others.

I think the overall problem with Lat is, their chairman/management DO NOT focus on the share price performance..
This.. can be said as a positive thing, as I'm sure you know there's a lot of directors who will actively try to manipulate share prices to their own profit.
But the bad thing is, they let it drop down too much...

A sharebuy back at <4.80 is actually a WIN WIN for the company, shareholder, paying 4.80 for a NAPS of 5.8+ will immediately yield a profit, and increases the average NAPS

I think the government move to block rubber wood export hurt Lat's strategy at buying a lumber mill in msia, as their major usage of lumber is from their Vietnam factory... while unfortunate, you can't entirely say that their initial decision is wrong. Imagine if all their vietnam lumber is supplied internally instead, that could've improved profit margin by an important 1-2% if not more.

It's how they respond to all of these challenges that determine if the management is good or not.
And in the latest q result, we already did see a significant improvement in the revenue of their Msian sales, probably some startup issues on a new project/ramp up that impacted their initial Msian operations net profit.

New substantial shareholder, it's a Europe based fund, with USD 366million in fund size. Samarang probably buying it off KYY, once he's finally sold off all his remaining shares, there'll be a much better chance for the share to be reflective of its value.
Probably we still need to wait for 1-2 million more of volume before KYY and co sold out entirely.

2) Expanding the sawmill would be a relatively low risk to reward activity, I would say the benefit from here will probably reflect in an additional 1% margin increase on the lowest side of things.

>> Let's talk about their sawmill business a bit more.
In the latest AR result, they mentioned 40-55% of their COS is spent on wood/wood based products.

You can take their annual COS * 0.5 and they're spending 327 million on wood itself.

Assuming the profit margin of the sawmill that supply Latitud last time is just a low 4% margin...

That's 13 million of profit that can potentially be added to Latitud's net profit per year! If all of Latitud's wood purchase is routed back to the internal sawmill at 4% profit margin. Even if half of it is realized only, that's still 6-7 million of profit per annum, which increases EPS per year by 10% !!!

For whatever the reason someone else is selling, I think it's a good opportunity for others. Assuming everything just remains the same. Don't forget it's still a EPS 70+ cents company with a NAPS of 5.69
How many companies in the entire bursa that has low PE and trading price that's below NAPS?

Other people may sell because they have another target that they believe they could push up easier or whatever... but it doesn't mean that Latitude is a bad company by itself. Especially, if you're not chasing after quick gains.


Financial/Fundamental analysis
YoY the 1st Q 2018 vs 1st Q 2017 will most likely be on the positive upside, supported by a few facts

1) YoY forex exchange rate is more favourable.
2) New sawmill expansion that's just completed construction in July 2017
3) New production line for the low volume, high margin products

Confirmed happened
1) is already a fact that has happened, just on forex itself, it's ~4-5% more favourable YoY.

Most likely will happen
2) Expanding the sawmill would be a relatively low risk to reward activity, I would say the benefit from here will probably reflect in an additional 1% margin increase on the lowest side of things.

3) New line for low volume higher margin products, this area would be harder to estimate the impact, until we see the next q result, but again, the risk to reward ratio is again most likely on the success side, since the variables and risks of operating a new line would be quite easily quantified by the management themselves. (Things like, do we have customer demand for such products? Do our existing customer want something on a lower volume? Cost of operating a new dedicated line vs cost of sales, etc is within normal business proposal/control)

Shareholder analysis.
From the latest AR 2017, vs AR 2016
In terms of top 30 shareholding, even with KYY selling out half of his known holdings, (about 3 millions sold) the total shares held by the top 30 shareholders actually increased (slightly about 1%)
This means that an exit of a big shareholder is replaced by an entry of another big shareholder, (there is 2 new top 30 shareholders, which is from European funds)
So all in, there is still big fish who is willing to buy up Latitude too. Shares is not being sold from KYY to small fishes which may have weaker holding power if that's your concerns.

Again, this is a good opportunity to buy, I believe. Certainly way oversold at this price level.. don't forget Poh Huat, Lii Hen they all are trading at near their 52 week high.

Kenanga still up TP, even after the 1.6c eps. QoQ forex dropping already, any fundamental gains will be offset by forex dropping. I'm really interested to see how far kenanga will go and what sort of weird justification they will use to keep it up.. really interesting case study for me now to follow how this continues :)

I'm not sure what the earnings will mean for u though bsngpg. Definitely the eps is not a good news fundamentally. But who knows, market is crazy... U will have a hard decision to make tomorrow..

The effect of the eps on the share price is hard to guess.. but confirmed LTH has already started selling... D eps announced is really not going to justify 1.3... But of course if market keep buy, n kenanga keep up TP.. or will they u turn after this q result. Really interested to c how they continue their coverage of notion TP with this result

U serious or joking Tan? @@ I guess most of the notioners at my time has left by now. Good for them

1.65 cent EPS.... @@ share price RM1.3

Going to turn out to be a good co to hold as they're moving into a 30% EPS as dividend policy now if you're still on board.

@@ okay, I admit I did under estimated it a lot then. Sherlock, hats' off to you

Definitely oversold at this price. And should easily be worth close to RM7 if you're conservative, or if you really want to ride it all the way to the top, even RM9-10

It's not a bad result, even if you exclude the 7.6 million 'Other Income' the EPS is still at a very healthy 29 cent for this quarter.
Considering the so called challenges from the other chinese manufacturers, you could even consider it as a positive signal that they are able to more or less maintain their market share "only slight drop" in terms of revenue.
And they countered this with higher margin too.

They have something that allows them to keep their margin, and market share. Which is definitely a good sign.

Mmmm okay, let's see the quarter result then. My weakness is my fair value is really quite fair, so I could miss out on these big big over 60% gains, or the overpriced levels. This is something I need to train more on :)
Holding for 50% gain is my best record so far, I'll need to aim for more in my next one.

He was able to 'almost' exactly time the top price to sell, with the dividend announcement coincidence + the Kenanga TP report publication date + his ability to time the top, and swing back at 68. It's interesting indeed..

At this price, there is other shares with equal or even better profit profile, with less risks. That's all I'm saying.

I will be fair if the share price gets around 50-55 cent, I would probably buy back again, but so far, I'm mostly on another board already. As I'm fully invested, I'll stop by less here d... so yeah, I guess this is what I want to say.

Talks about RM1++ is really premature i believe, i'm a fundamental guy, and i always believe TPs should be based on EPS... you will need EPS of 3 sen+ to hit your TP Sherlock, for it to be a sustainable TP.

You now have a director who will actively trade against you as a minority shareholder, another risk to consider then...

Actually... there's a secret to their profitability in Q4 result. I'm surprised nobody noticed that :) excluding that one off item, Notion's Q4 result is actually RM 1 million net profit. Vs 4.6m net profit.

TCF actually repaid some money back to the company in last Q, 3.7m to be exact.
If you exclude that one off gain, notion operation net profit is RM 1m, has anyone really noticed this announcement all the while? With this information, you may relook into their operation net profit assumption.

Source > http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5209865

Also, when I opened bursa to check back the TCF repayment announcement, I just saw their director sold and buy back share announcement. Sold at 70.x, BB at 68.x
Source > http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5314577

He's actively trading the share leh... normally, we expect that to happen with unseen hands, this is quite interesting to say the least.

As usual, i'll give my counter arguments, I like to give opposing views when things are too negative, or too positive.

Since it's too positive... lets talk abt the bad stuffs that people have all suddenly forgotten
1) High directors fees as % of net profit.
2) Risk of new business failures. Silver, HP, total loss. And now they're talking about biomass business.
3) RM will strengthen again, I won't make my investment decision on RM holding above 4.40 for the entire year.
4) HDD is a sunset industry, it can't be avoided... expect no growth in this segment, and at best, for it to maintain at similar level YoY.
5) SLR, i think we all know its a gone case.
6) Automotive, neutral to sunrise a bit, but we still dunno the margin of this product. From my time following notion, SLR is their biggest margin products, so you can see the loss of SLR business really impacted the profit a lot.
7) New business, new business is not so 'exciting' at first I'm also wondering what's the impact of the new business, but assuming the latest Kng research is correct, and from their statement, Quote "On top of that, the group has also ventured into the new Industrial segment - manufacturing parts for household/sport items. Although meaningful contribution will only be seen in FY18"
Sports and household segment? mmmmm... also take note on the FY18 meaningful contribution......
8) Okay, foreign worker levy suddenly U turn from government, delay by 1 year, but next year notion foreign labour costs will increase by ~ 14% (damn, that effected my decision in a way)
9) Slow/Failure to get new business. I've mentioned this all the while as a big problem. Notion management has about 2 years to fill up the CNC machine left idle from the loss of SLR and HDD business, but even until now, they've not been able to keep machine utilization % high. If you have machines not doing anything, logically you will do whatever it takes to get business for them, their slow ability to do so is a concern. Meaning they're not adaptable to changes in business requirements fast enough. As HDD goes into sunset mode, this could be an issue.

Good or neutral points
1) I'm expecting EPS of 1.4-2 cent for the result announced in Feb. So the rally could last until mid March. But even at 2cent eps, that'll translate to a 80cent TP? 10x of FY EPS.

We already seeing USD to RM back at 4.47, could it retreat more? Notion is very dependent on forex gains for their profitability at the moment...

Take the above with a grain of salt, just my own deduction from the way that pieces seems to fall in nicely one by one.. of course it could all be a coincidence only.

I will salute kenanga if they revise the TP while it was still at 40c. But publishing it after it hit 69? @@ so convenient for them to change the TP by up to 100% just over 2 months since the last q announcement?

The sustained buying power in this case seems to be from someone with inside knowledge of what is abt to happen next, with the dividend announcement and then with this TP revision. I'm not normally one to talk abt speculative things like this (I'm more of a fundamental guy) but now that the story is almost finished I think most of us can see the 'strategy' that went into this bull run...

U look u will know the strategy now that it has happened. The accumulation happened and then the TP from kenanga is 'published' after accumulation ended, the TP from kenanga is still saying 85c TP. Assuming the kenanga report is targeted at the general public, u will get an idea on how the play happened.

Timing of the TP announcement is after the big buy activities have pushed it up to 69c. A bit of a coincidence, and could be someone knows abt the kenanga TP

Kenanga give good TP of 85c, oh well, I have to admit I got it wrong with my exit :)

When notion thread suddenly have ppl like Audi n bigbos posting, time to be afraid :P
But seriously I'm impressed by the support so far. This round of purchase is supported quite well by either a single person with big pocket/funds or a lot of small persons

I'm just being realistic at the moment, like i say, currently based on what we know, that would be a realistic price. Unless it have an earning of 2.5sen per share in the next q. EPS of 2.5 sen per share is like almost a 50% increase in net profit QoQ. Could it jump so high in just 1 quarter? Maybe, but is it possible so fast, not likely.

Also, manufacturing will have to pay foreign worker levy starting this year. So there is some negative aspect to offset the positive aspect as well. These is still some uncertainty and I'm surprised suddenly everybody is all positive about notion earning big bucks.

I'm just saying in short term (under what we know in the current situation) i don't put it past 72cents max. If it announced a 2c++ next Q, then yes, 80c is possible.

Anyway, just be careful for those coming in now. As I don't understand people who sold it < 40 cents all the past year, I don't quite understand why people is buying it above 60 cents at this moment, with what information we know. Unless the buyer have insider information la, then that's a different case.

The risk/reward is more like 50% 50% now.. you may gain 10%-20% but u can lose 10-20% as well.

A 20% gain from 60 cents is 72 cents price.
20% loss will send it back to 50 cents.