actually, the idea of privatisation by xterrorsinx is not that far off.....

I want you all to study the volume of shares transacted carefully.
16/4/2020 - 45.3m
17/4/2020 - 47.2m
29/4/2020 - 40.3m
30/4/2020 - 40 million (Should be la, based on first 1030AM volume of 23million shares now)

Overall, this 4 days of heavy volume purchases is total of 170m

Total shares

170,000,000 / 2,272,983,500 = 7.5%

LCTITAN shares is 76% privately owned.

almost 33% of publicly owned LCTITAN shares (7.5% vs 24%) has been purchased by someone in 4 days only...

you will see a very different composition of the public shareholding spread in this year's soon to be announced AR.

I'm saying, there is a mistake in their quarter result announcement.

In one part, they are saying a profit of 4.4m and in another part, they are saying a loss of 11.2 million

Please read quarter results, page 9.

It's almost 2 weeks now, and they have not made the correction, did they really profit or did they really lose money, which statement is correct here?

If they lose money, in their review of performance, then they should need to explain the sudden and abnormal increases in Administration and Operating expenses.... normally, it don't make sense to have such a huge increase...

Now in previous Q, with a gross profit of 3m, they had a net profit of RM 30,000, with the current Q's gross profit of 6m, it's a bit hard to understand why they still made a loss of 11m.

Reading up on the profit and loss calculation, the loss is because quarterly Administrative and Operation Costs increased from ~4m (on average) to 16m in the latest quarter!

If the Admin and Operation Costs indeed jumped from 4m > 16m quarter over quarter, what causes such a high jump? a net increase of 12m in Admin and Operating Costs seems rather unlikely.....

Even assuming if it's for the marketing purposes of Luasempit/MTC...

Just wondering if there's anyone else who read the financial report entirely? It's been a week and there's no correction yet.

In terms of their gross profit, it has increased from 3m in prior quarter to 6m now..

While the tables says they made a loss of 11.2 million overall, in their review of performance paragraph writing, they actually says there's a profit after tax of 4.4m, there is a big 16m net difference....

In page 9, of the 4th quarter result,
Under
1. Review of Performance
For the current quarter under review, the Group recorded revenue of RM 7.454 million due to
sales activity from housing landed project at Kuala Linggi. With the incurred of operating expenses
during the financial period, the profit before tax is amounting to RM 4.486 million and profit after
tax is amounting to RM 4.423 million.
Overall for cumulative period, the Group had recorded revenue of RM 13.210 million and profit
after tax of RM 0.903 million.

2. Material Changes in Loss Before Taxation for the Current Quarter as compared with the
Immediate Preceding Quarter
The Group recorded a profit before tax of RM 4.486 million in the current quarter as compared
to a profit before tax of RM 38,000 in the immediate preceding quarter


In pages 17 & 18 as well,
The law suit against PRIMA is coming to the settlement phase, and there's a minimum potential 13m to come in.

Also, bahai, u rrally expect HY to stay at 30c???? Plenty of buyer.. and makes no sense at all to be selling at this price range unless ur forced to sale for other reasons. Its not puzzling at all, plenty of value for HY at < 40 cents

did u sold early? uptrending... u went from very very positive, and then negative pretty fast (especially after HH is raising to 45 cent now)

I believe BJC will be a success, and all of HH's assets there, the shoplots, HH Tower, and (I wonder if HH still owns a bit of Aurora Place or not) will not only appreciate in value, but in rental too....

Edited to clarify some strategy they can use.
I think for HH, a lot depends on some of their assets ability to generate cash from rental.
1) HH Tower needs to be rented out asap even if at dirt btm price : Some floors may already been rented out, because if you look at advertisement of HH Tower for rent, they're trying to get tenant for 4.5 floors, out of the total 15/16 floors? assume, HH themselves take a max of 2 floors, that's still abt 9 floors that is rented out... 9 floors, at 40k per floor, that's still 360k a month in rental, ~1m per quarter of incoming cash flow. Minus, building maintenance, maybe net 700k per Q in profit?
After HH relocated their own office to HHTower, they can possibly sell or rent their previous shoplot too. (I prefer them to sell) : These are things that can happen within 3 months...

2) they have 3 shoplots in BJC, 1 is own use, 1 is fully rented, a 3rd unit maybe harder to rent out now because facing pav bj under construction now, but once mall is finished and is ong. A lot of their asset and rental can shoot up quite fast.. provided they can survive the next 1.5 years...

3) the crowne hotel in KK is a good move, but again its a 2 years ahead in the future thing... : In my opinion, this is a good play, KK's tourism volume is expected to pick up in the coming years, and will definitely a a gem to HH in the future, again with recurring stable income.

Projects that they should not fund with excessive debt at this moment.
Laman iskandaria project.. With limited uptake i believe..

Their Aurora Duo condo project in BJC, again, I hope they can delay this project, if they launch it again in 2 years time after PBJ is up, they can fetch even better profit margin, as the market would have recovered by then even more.. even though it means immediate revenue may drop..

You do know that once the blocks are handed over, it means the revenue will drop right

Kenanga not increasing TP, those bastards @@

Well, got a senior management bought in some shares at 30c...
Really dunno who is selling at this price.. confirm lose money 99 to sell now.. don't understand.. except maybe force sell

Avg down a lot at 34-38, come on guys, if u as HH shareholders dont appreciate it at this price, dont xpect others new investors to jump in

Seems like someone got force selling? The shares are dumped across the price without care...

Next few days is good time to go fish while wait upcoming q result next week.

The p2p plan looks promising and is a win win to all... I believe thats a good step.. at least its a genuine solution thats acceptable with benefits for owner, investor and also developers.

Overall it should be positive.
Why so?

1) the 10% discount is already currently being offered to clear stock anyway.. unsold properties and even new ones are given discount. No impact..
2) the free stamp duty is a positive news... Although not much. Again this is probably paid by property companies already as a discount (free stamp duty right c).. But this time it's free from the government... So, property developer can either profit from stamp duty savings or they can choose to maintain their stamp duty 'allowance' and convert it to extra discount for buyer.
3) additional p2p financing... This is potentially the biggest changer... A lot of problem is because bank have restriction on financing.. now property investors used to buy house n sell. For these investors, they cant flip because maybe rpgt impact is a bit more now, but clever investors can still profit as they can now borrow money to other people to buy house. Instead of paying 60k and get loan etc under your name, you can now use the 60k to loan to other ppl who want to buy house... Potentially a big win win.

Most of the insentives, is targetting the market that HY is in, ~ 300-500k range. I'm no expert, but the initial feedback from some experts seems to suggest that it's a beneficial/supportive budget for the housing sector..

For example
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/property-sector-biggest-winner-budget-2019-says-maybank-chief

Maybank CEO says property sector is the biggest winner from this budget.. but dunno how true it is la.

But... even assuming a small net benefit, I guess some good news is better than no good news at all, and among all property developers, HY do indeed stand to benefit the most from it, vs other more high end developments

Budget 2019 seems slightly positive for developers?

Got some stamp duty exemption for first time buyers/the unsold overhang mentioned by LGE...
But negative also because of rpgt...

Overall, unsure if its net positive or not.

QoQ eps increased by 86% and unbilled sales goes up by 25% from 200m to 250m.

Completed but unsold property reduced by 15% too..

The numbers are getting healthier certainly the eps does not warrant the 52week low price

Force what, they are giving me chance to buy more if it stays aymt this price longer

So much director share buy back.... Positive action..

Such huge volume yesterday.... remember CH is IDSS approved shares, probably someone trying to short sell it down... and to a large extent, failed too 3 million shares only managed to push it down 3 bids before recovering. Will be interesting to see the movement when they need to cover their shorts in the coming days.

Short term weakness hard to explain why... Maybe after the increase, some ppl no patience and cut loss..

Expect their next q earning to be 1.81-2.1 cents

And their 4th q earning to really contribute.. maybe 2.1-2.4

On average 8c eps is realistic for HH this year.
PER of about 5.5.
NAPS is about 93cents.

Ur buying price is <50 cents.... Really don't make sense for people who selling now

TP depends on your time frame..
If ur an investor that don't mind to wait 6months to 1 year, it could be at 80-100cents in 12 months..

There is a lot of growth potential, especially from 4th q onwards.
Repeat Rental income from hohup tower and some units they own from Aurora place.
KK The Crown residence project, which the cheapest two types of units already sold out.
KK The Crown hotel, completing in 2021. Which HH owns, again another repeat income
Johor kulai there's a big land/city that HH is developing.

Also in bukit jalil they will launch condo again

Personally, I'm already invested in HH earlier, and I will continue to buy monthly with my salary more n more HH shares. Anything below 50cents is a no brainier to me.. but you need to be able to wait until the 6th month..

Q2 out... got improvement in topline and btm line+ opex on the new factories dragging btm line, but it looks positive.

Also, need to consider their coming up projects at the 2nd half of the year.

Assuming nothing at all from the next 2 quarters.
4.12+3.6 also 7.7 cents EPS

Their project in KK is already in the pilling stage, possible to be revenue positive in 3rd Q.

1.81 EPS for this quarter, 4.12 EPS for the 6 months. Still very favourable results.

don't really need to emphasis on those news play, fundamentally, it's a stock that can earn 8.5 EPS (10-15% chance), 9.5 EPS(65% chance) or 10.5 EPS (15-20% chance)

For a NAPS of 92 cents company, with 9 cents EPS, trading at 40-50 cents.... it's certainly undervalued excessively.

Previously their problem is on their cash flow, take a lot of loan, for a lot of projects that are not immediately (cash flow friendly) for example, they take loan to build KK bus station for 2 year?
They take loan to build the Kulai skill hub, again, all this loan is not CASHFLOW positive...

After all these 2 years, finally, their Kulai project is done, and as a result they are paid with LAND... again not cashflow positive yet.
Their KK bus stop, is again paid with LAND, instead of cash.

There's also their decision to buy HH Tower with borrowings... again it's a negative cash flow decision.

However....

Like few months ago only the KK project is doing piling works... (So can expect the KK project to start contribute cash by 3rd or 4th Q this year)

Their Kulai land, is just recently transferred to HH, again, this project will contribute, maybe year end...

Their HH Tower purchase, they can start renting it out by August, this will offset the negative cashflow from their bank loan

Finally, HH final piece of land in Bkt Jalil, there's talks about launching condo there, again in year end.

What I'm saying is, as it is, their current profit of 2.3 cents EPS is JUST MAINLY from the Malton JV.

Over the coming quarters, there's a good visibility that next Q EPS can be maintained, next next Q EPS may increase, and finally 3 quarters later, we're gonna see the peak of their EPS.

PH government winning, it's actually a positive news for HH as well, because, if the construction works are more fairly distributed, HH stands to benefit much more too. As certainly, they're not a favoured by BN company previously.. so you may see some BN only projects, will distribute to the none BN related construction companies like HH

It's really a good time to buy just based on earnings analysis, regardless of whatever 'news' that may or may not come up...

-_- think i shared too much -_-

Bad choice Victor, 45c now, but dunno if can last and continue or not. Hope it's a longer term investor who can help realize value of HH, rather than traders pumping n dumping in a few days...

That's old news... but to me it's certainly oversold la.
They have one problem left, which is their cashflow... they still depend on borrowing, but overall their cash flow position will only improve. But this takes time... don't expect it to shoot up fast, but the downside risk is really minimal at this point.

Remember, their latest EPS of 2.3 cents is JUST from the Pavilion 2 project + their construction segment.

Their KK project already start pilling works, and will contribute in Q4 and they're launching their Johor development as well at the later end of this year.

Assuming we ignore their KK and Johor and also their own last piece of land in Bkt Jalil, the 2.3 cent EPS per q is still maintainable for the next 2.5-3 years....

2.3x4 = 9.2 eps per year.... selling at 40 cents per share now... amazing...

Wrong info just now, got share split, 1 to 2... not sure if the chart I looking at considered share split effect or not..

2.31 cent EPS, mainly earning is from the JV, at this moment.
With HH own projects in Johor and KK soft launched, and to add to revenue in the next coming 2 quarters.

10 to 15 cents EPS for FY 2018 is possible.
2.31*4 = 9.24 cents already, + 2 more cents from HH own developments in the Q3 and Q4, reasonable target.

Malton side, don't have to worry too much about it, the land is from HoHup, and there's no problems at all with this project.

The problem with Malton, is on their own project which Lim may have obtained land at lower price... not related with HH at all. Icon, you shouldn't spread incorrect information.

think it's just the general properties related down trend at the moment... there's just no buyers at all to support the price, each time buyers matched, there's no new buyers... will be under pressure for a while until Q result or some other announcement comes in

but already stopped for a while also ma... there's actually buy back activities in the last 2 months..

how do you know he's still selling now?

Especially compared with Lii Hen, Poh Huat.. their sales to US, and their margin didn't go as bad as Latitud's can't really understand what else is happening.

Whilst its net asset will provide a cushion, maybe a bottom of 300-330 (Net cash+convertable to cash items is about 2.80 per share, it's totally crazy for it to go below net cash/convertable to cash value)

Don't expect any increase in share price until they managed to pass on some costs back to their customers/or gain new customers, or shift more of their sales from VN to MY.

This potentially could take a long time, 6 months to a year, but any turnaround in revenue, will result in them shooting back up quite fast... Latitud is a high risk/uncertainties, high gain type of stock d.

Actually rubber wood export from malaysia to china/vietnam was increasing also, until the gov started the rubberwood export ban. But fundamentally, can't defend the company also la... their margin compressed by so much, compared with Poh Huat who have operations in Vietnam too... so, yeah, I did cut loss a bit.

To me their ability to ramp up sales from their Msian factory indicates there's still some 'moat' available to them, their msian sales should tap into their Msian lumber mill, which we should be able to see the impact on their coming Q results..

I disagree that historical earnings should be ignored entirely. The historical earnings is a short summary of their customer profiles and production capability, and the customer relationships which although may have changed due to a new competitor giving a cheaper price, but the relationship can be potentially reactivated again if the circumstances is valid.

Past earning also reflects the income generation capacity. A company that does 10m in sales cannot realistically ramp up to 50m sales in 1 quarter, but a company that did make 50m in sales, while dropping to 40m still have the base production capability intact to go back up to 50m.

Latitude uses a sort of natural hedge where they pay their vendor in USD as well, so the forex drop will not hurt as much vs others.

I think the overall problem with Lat is, their chairman/management DO NOT focus on the share price performance..
This.. can be said as a positive thing, as I'm sure you know there's a lot of directors who will actively try to manipulate share prices to their own profit.
But the bad thing is, they let it drop down too much...

A sharebuy back at <4.80 is actually a WIN WIN for the company, shareholder, paying 4.80 for a NAPS of 5.8+ will immediately yield a profit, and increases the average NAPS

I think the government move to block rubber wood export hurt Lat's strategy at buying a lumber mill in msia, as their major usage of lumber is from their Vietnam factory... while unfortunate, you can't entirely say that their initial decision is wrong. Imagine if all their vietnam lumber is supplied internally instead, that could've improved profit margin by an important 1-2% if not more.

It's how they respond to all of these challenges that determine if the management is good or not.
And in the latest q result, we already did see a significant improvement in the revenue of their Msian sales, probably some startup issues on a new project/ramp up that impacted their initial Msian operations net profit.

New substantial shareholder, it's a Europe based fund, with USD 366million in fund size. Samarang probably buying it off KYY, once he's finally sold off all his remaining shares, there'll be a much better chance for the share to be reflective of its value.
Probably we still need to wait for 1-2 million more of volume before KYY and co sold out entirely.

2) Expanding the sawmill would be a relatively low risk to reward activity, I would say the benefit from here will probably reflect in an additional 1% margin increase on the lowest side of things.

>> Let's talk about their sawmill business a bit more.
In the latest AR result, they mentioned 40-55% of their COS is spent on wood/wood based products.

You can take their annual COS * 0.5 and they're spending 327 million on wood itself.

Assuming the profit margin of the sawmill that supply Latitud last time is just a low 4% margin...

That's 13 million of profit that can potentially be added to Latitud's net profit per year! If all of Latitud's wood purchase is routed back to the internal sawmill at 4% profit margin. Even if half of it is realized only, that's still 6-7 million of profit per annum, which increases EPS per year by 10% !!!

For whatever the reason someone else is selling, I think it's a good opportunity for others. Assuming everything just remains the same. Don't forget it's still a EPS 70+ cents company with a NAPS of 5.69
How many companies in the entire bursa that has low PE and trading price that's below NAPS?

Other people may sell because they have another target that they believe they could push up easier or whatever... but it doesn't mean that Latitude is a bad company by itself. Especially, if you're not chasing after quick gains.


Financial/Fundamental analysis
YoY the 1st Q 2018 vs 1st Q 2017 will most likely be on the positive upside, supported by a few facts

1) YoY forex exchange rate is more favourable.
2) New sawmill expansion that's just completed construction in July 2017
3) New production line for the low volume, high margin products

Confirmed happened
1) is already a fact that has happened, just on forex itself, it's ~4-5% more favourable YoY.

Most likely will happen
2) Expanding the sawmill would be a relatively low risk to reward activity, I would say the benefit from here will probably reflect in an additional 1% margin increase on the lowest side of things.

3) New line for low volume higher margin products, this area would be harder to estimate the impact, until we see the next q result, but again, the risk to reward ratio is again most likely on the success side, since the variables and risks of operating a new line would be quite easily quantified by the management themselves. (Things like, do we have customer demand for such products? Do our existing customer want something on a lower volume? Cost of operating a new dedicated line vs cost of sales, etc is within normal business proposal/control)

Shareholder analysis.
From the latest AR 2017, vs AR 2016
In terms of top 30 shareholding, even with KYY selling out half of his known holdings, (about 3 millions sold) the total shares held by the top 30 shareholders actually increased (slightly about 1%)
This means that an exit of a big shareholder is replaced by an entry of another big shareholder, (there is 2 new top 30 shareholders, which is from European funds)
So all in, there is still big fish who is willing to buy up Latitude too. Shares is not being sold from KYY to small fishes which may have weaker holding power if that's your concerns.

Again, this is a good opportunity to buy, I believe. Certainly way oversold at this price level.. don't forget Poh Huat, Lii Hen they all are trading at near their 52 week high.

Kenanga still up TP, even after the 1.6c eps. QoQ forex dropping already, any fundamental gains will be offset by forex dropping. I'm really interested to see how far kenanga will go and what sort of weird justification they will use to keep it up.. really interesting case study for me now to follow how this continues :)

I'm not sure what the earnings will mean for u though bsngpg. Definitely the eps is not a good news fundamentally. But who knows, market is crazy... U will have a hard decision to make tomorrow..

The effect of the eps on the share price is hard to guess.. but confirmed LTH has already started selling... D eps announced is really not going to justify 1.3... But of course if market keep buy, n kenanga keep up TP.. or will they u turn after this q result. Really interested to c how they continue their coverage of notion TP with this result

U serious or joking Tan? @@ I guess most of the notioners at my time has left by now. Good for them

1.65 cent EPS.... @@ share price RM1.3

Going to turn out to be a good co to hold as they're moving into a 30% EPS as dividend policy now if you're still on board.

@@ okay, I admit I did under estimated it a lot then. Sherlock, hats' off to you

Definitely oversold at this price. And should easily be worth close to RM7 if you're conservative, or if you really want to ride it all the way to the top, even RM9-10

It's not a bad result, even if you exclude the 7.6 million 'Other Income' the EPS is still at a very healthy 29 cent for this quarter.
Considering the so called challenges from the other chinese manufacturers, you could even consider it as a positive signal that they are able to more or less maintain their market share "only slight drop" in terms of revenue.
And they countered this with higher margin too.

They have something that allows them to keep their margin, and market share. Which is definitely a good sign.

Mmmm okay, let's see the quarter result then. My weakness is my fair value is really quite fair, so I could miss out on these big big over 60% gains, or the overpriced levels. This is something I need to train more on :)
Holding for 50% gain is my best record so far, I'll need to aim for more in my next one.