Anyway, having digested things a bit more, it's not all that doom n gloom. Dissapointment is because of too high expectations, not entirely becaused of the reaults. While the prospect of waiting another q is definitely not fun and testing, at least it's a positive step in the correct direction. Based on past quarters, Notion 1st Q is considered as a weaker quarter, so if a weak quarter already 60m++ in revenues, a good quarter can even break 70m.
While it certainly seems like a lot of reasons to justify their higher costs.
Derivative losses, machine n inventory write offs, n now deferred tax and bonus payment for the opex. The next q should b an accurate indicator for their performance moving on...

Ah.. just read Kenanga's report.. sorry a bit late on finding that.

Q result just out. Profit of 3.1m/1.16 EPS. Nothing to shout at I guess, below my expectations.

Some items of note.
Front loaded items.
*Taxation is much higher at 3.6million for this Q. Reversal from the tax gain provision when derivatives losing money. Moving on, this item should stabilize and reduce a lot in future without additional wild swing in the forex.

Without this tax item(which will be reduced next month) actual profit should be closer to 5m for 2 EPS.

-Negative points
*Opex is higher at 16m, need further clarification on the items here (bonus, factory relocation from sold factory to own factory costs?) need to see this going down in next Q, otherwise, it'll be a problem. From past year results, 4Q's average OPEX is at 10m... so it's definitely on the high side here.


-Positive points
Overall sales is stabilizing around 60m per Q at sub 4.2X to USD.
Automotive segment is growing
Inventory write off has been reduced.
With factory relocation completed, future will have savings from factory rental.

been busy~ maybe I'll do a more detailed writeup in a couple days if I can find some time for it :) 19th-24th should be Q result time.
Healthy accumulation happening now though

What's ur expectations for the current q results?
Jan and now Feb, the forex is around 4.1x so very likely again derivatives gain for next q result too. US interest rate increase if happens in may or June will be perfect timing to push USD higher again. By that time notions derivatives will be almost finished, and gains in forex will be beneficial.
There is actually some signs that Notion managed to diversify its business in this year...(2015) so I'm glad to at least see that their excess machining capacity can still be put to use...

ok, good to see some experienced head here...

Off topic a bit, what's your investment profile and experience klse?

think he's just staying quiet I guess.. apparently posting too much here is not a good thing as well. Really no volume here... have to wait the Q result.
For another news... Nikon share price is at 1 year high...

Few more weeks to go.... there's also some other promising figures, on a Y2Y basis... So, I'm a bit more optimistic now. Let's hope that the Q result is as per my expectations...

1.5 is a realistic figure.
Your 77m value is incorrect. At the end of december, the figure should be ard 50m
(Some of the contract is realized at oct, nov, dec)

So the actual formula is realized gains at oct, nov, dec ~7m of contract settlement per month + unrealized gain of ~50m marked to 4.29

The actual calculation is a bit more complex, there seems to be indication that the M2M happens on a monthly basis.... (so ignoring the actual much complicated calculations) sum of realized + unrealized is accurate at 1.5-2m

as always, do your own homework to confirm, or to deny if what others say make sense or not...

Don't want to say too much d, yes, blackout's figure is realistic, and is most probable. At best, it could be higher, or even much higher.
At worst, should be 5m profit at least.

Good news indeed!! It means the buyer have holding power.... I don't see TH selling near term

I leave coverage to you :) I may have spoken too much previously. Lol.
Still, interesting times is ahead I believe.

@@

ok~~ noted.

Mid 2016... But hedging is good in current period when RM strengthen .. I really don't want to talk too much d.. D new bunch of 'speculators' are rude... Do ur own maths, if u don't understand 100% u don't buy

dont understand trader mentality... always jumping in and out, i'm pretty sure a lot of them who sold will regret in a month or two.

not much to say now, except it's ridiculous oversold prices.. can only guess the margin buyers are cutting loss or something. Your loss is someone else's gains.. good to those buying at 37.5

But this time if it break upward, i expect it to breach 48.... the fundamentals do match any upward price movement now..
I agree with master tan on the potential, but i disagree with him on the timing in the last round... this round, yes my alignment is the same with anonymous/mastertan /cutie... forex will close ard 4.26 today, means for Sept+October confirmed realised some derivatives gain already...

I will sell if the price is right or if price movement is faster than fundamentals support.. i did sold some in the 1st round ~48, 2nd round i sit out hoping for break out (didn't sell any :( 3rd round took profit partially again.

Avg 41-42cent ba... i long term investor, i avg down from 70, 50, until now 41 cent
You can see my posting in notion thread since 2014 like that.. aih unfortunately...

fundamental guys should let them bet against each others.. don't get dragged into their game and cut loss...

let you all counter each other off.... staying sideway to watch for now...

a lot of traders throwing and picking up and throwing.. @@

Yes, notion this Q result is gonna be bullish...
In my worst case scenario, with 0 forex gains, no improvement in sales, EPS of 1 cent is guarenteed d...

With improvement in sales, + forex gain + derivatives gain... not unreasonable to see coming Q result similar to JCY/Dufu's current Q result.

Some uninformed investors cutting loss, or worry abt the USD to RM which is 4.19 now...
Actually with the hedging M2M at 4.40 last Q forex at 4.1-4.30 range is perfect for notion... If december close at 4.1-4.3, EPS for coming Q of up to 3-4 cent is possible

Jcy profit was from USD 4.40, n USD dropped to 4.25~
In notion case, d derivatives will b profit earning at least for Oct n Nov.
If Dec forex is lower than 4.4 u will see insane notion earning both from currency+hedging...

I not exactly the same as u, as i took a bit profit in the last round, but this round, yes we same direction... i'm holding long term d from now on.. :)

*Subject to change as and when warranted by latest information* lol, have to write disclaimer d... nanti ppl say i send them to holland

dont surprise me, if today TCF have share buy announcement..
his exit price +40 cent previously for an early batch.

the shark attack d.... so big sell Q eaten in just 2, 3 transactions

Hedging information is in every Q result.. page 10. B11 iirc... i didn't have any magical insider information.. it's there if you study/do your homework.

the hedging price is updated every 3 months in their Q result, eventhough it may be M2M every month I guess, (not an accountant)

Previously it's hedged in June 3.77, after which RM got beaten like crazy until RM4.40, so there's a forex loss of 16%, of RM100m = about 15m loss u see in notion in the latest quarter result.

However, every quarter, they will 'settle' some parts of the hedge, about 23m per quarter..

So in the latest Q result for September, they took the 16m loss, and their outstanding hedge is 77m which is already marked to 4.40

Assuming 4.40 is peak, or at least 4.60 will be the peak, the 15m loss u see last Q should not happen again, and there could be some forex gain as well if RM is lower than 4.40 vs USD..

If RM > 4.4 by X% by december, you can just take 77million x the % to have a good estimate of any forex losses from their hedging.. anything lower, is a hedging gain.

got some important announcements coming up.
1) forex rate by end of next week.
2) cipa SLR sales result

If this two results are good, turn around can occur as early as next week.

Of course, December will be watching forex and cipa slr result again...
Within 1 week to 1.1 months, there could be confirmation signal already

Don't feel like talking too much d, make your own research to decide if you want to cut loss, add in, or sit out and wait.

The Q result is for september... which is 2 months ago.. forex was 4.40 to RM back then. Since then.

USD drop from 4.40 > 4.29 for October. = Some realised derivative gain, as they settle their monthly hedging due.
For November... It's still 4.29 now even as USD interest rate talk is getting stronger. If it's below 4.40, another month of some small realised gain in hedging.
In december, From 4.30 still have some room for it to appreciate without triggering another M2M loss for Notion.

Would USD rise another 10%? 4.84 to RM? >> I think most will believe this is NOT LIKELY
Maybe at most, rise to 4.6, 5%... at outstanding hedge of 67m (after 10m matured in October n November), it'll be likely to loss 3-4m forex hedge.

Overall, probability of next Q outperforming far outweights this Q..

I think the sellers now will most probably regret in 3 months time....

Master_tan, from your entry to notion forum, it's <3 months and you exit now.
You were timing the bottom, and n cutting loss..... technical player, probably an active trader too. Kakashit also same profile as you, go in at 42.5, have chance to sell at 47 but didn't sell. now he's stuck and is complaining. :) Traders, and speculators...

Mmmm... master_tan stay calm when ppl panic, stay calm when ppl greed..
You were not calm when greed happen, and now you're not calm when panic happen

I do think selling now is a mistake, but as you've sold.. it's a bit too bad la, either you don't take any actions like anonymous and wait for the turnaround to complete, or you sold and took profit like some other did, and buy back now..

For me, it's actually a good time to buy in this range.

I also feel they r still picky/choosy abt the customer or margin... I'm sure they can gain new customers if they throw price a bit. But of course, got pro n cons if they do that. Part of d reason I like notion is their high margin...

What can they say? I would ask them abt their RnD dept n c if it makes sense to invest more into that dept really... They r not getting new products in to keep cnc machine utilization high.
It's been more than a year of SLR downturn, I think we can expect that SLR sales will not increase much n will b sideways.
So its really important they get new products from current customer, or new customers totally. In this regard they r slow to react...
The glass machine business after being mentioned, now no sound no gas d....

cutie you n ur friends cleared 40c sell q is it :P

exactly because whole thread post by me, you can see what i say all along.
Lol... when u fear TCF dump, i say stay calm, when you greed this week, i also say stay calm... you all greedy dont blame me.. poor me :(

:) I think I'll just stay quiet now.. lol.
Kakashit, please feel free to cut loss.

I would expect such important announcement to be done with '2 man rule/4 eyes' rule loh... that's pretty standard in financial reporting... really dunno how the result is 'approved' to be sent out.

Today's price decreased is also caused by A LOT OF PPL buying in the morning session when they didn't check the Q result properly... these same ppl are now panic selling and cutting loss... making the technicals very bad, and causing more ppl to cut loss.

I really wonder wtf is bursa doing, with such a mistake in announcements. Even to the point i suspect it could be purposely done?

Technical players are getting cut left n right today....

Of course at that time i expect revenue to stay same or increased, now we know revenue decreased, which causes more loss....

Up to you all to read the same report, and source for information, and make your own decision :)

For the record, :P
I posted on 17/11/15

i think some ppl are too optimistic of this Q's result especially the talk abt dividends... it's really too soon.

QoQ, USD rised 16%, at outstanding hedging of 100m, M2M loss is around 13-15m, this is almost certainly to be confirmed.

I'll still say it's more likely that a loss will be coming this Q, around -5 to -1m depending on how much their revenue increased
17/11/2015 15:21

I'm the only person who warn of loss here when u all talking abt dividend, breaking 50c and all... Lol. I shld stay quiet now :)

Buy buy buy, don't just talk only :)

But, fundamentally, I also will agree next Q gonna be good...
However, at the same time, I've lowered the FY2016 EPS as well, as I'm concerned their sales is not performing

Risks to my assessment.
+ve risk, notion can please surprise me, by getting new customer, or by increasing their product range with existing customer. (what happened with their glass business for example? So many things mentioned by tcf didn't happen d)
+ve risk, QoQ I do believe all segments have bottomed out, so next Q I do expect sales to outperform.

-ve risk, USD increase another 5-10%, it's pretty much confirmed notion will be positive, just positive how much only.
-ve risk, I've also decreased my trust in TCF's future guidance, as the things he said didn't really occur anymore, I would not blindly accept his promises or believe when he say new business d... (HP glass machine business for example)

Please buy the 8k Q MarketWatcher :P