Val-Elta

eltaria | Joined since 2011-03-18

Investing Experience -
Risk Profile -

Followers

0

Following

1

Blog Posts

0

Threads

667

Blogs

Threads

Portfolio

Follower

Following

Summary
Total comments
667
Past 30 days
0
Past 7 days
0
Today
0

User Comments
Stock

2015-12-04 12:13 | Report Abuse

dont understand trader mentality... always jumping in and out, i'm pretty sure a lot of them who sold will regret in a month or two.

Stock

2015-12-04 12:07 | Report Abuse

not much to say now, except it's ridiculous oversold prices.. can only guess the margin buyers are cutting loss or something. Your loss is someone else's gains.. good to those buying at 37.5

Stock

2015-11-30 16:26 | Report Abuse

But this time if it break upward, i expect it to breach 48.... the fundamentals do match any upward price movement now..
I agree with master tan on the potential, but i disagree with him on the timing in the last round... this round, yes my alignment is the same with anonymous/mastertan /cutie... forex will close ard 4.26 today, means for Sept+October confirmed realised some derivatives gain already...

Stock

2015-11-30 16:24 | Report Abuse

I will sell if the price is right or if price movement is faster than fundamentals support.. i did sold some in the 1st round ~48, 2nd round i sit out hoping for break out (didn't sell any :( 3rd round took profit partially again.

Avg 41-42cent ba... i long term investor, i avg down from 70, 50, until now 41 cent
You can see my posting in notion thread since 2014 like that.. aih unfortunately...

Stock

2015-11-27 10:32 | Report Abuse

fundamental guys should let them bet against each others.. don't get dragged into their game and cut loss...

Stock

2015-11-27 10:26 | Report Abuse

let you all counter each other off.... staying sideway to watch for now...

Stock

2015-11-27 10:25 | Report Abuse

a lot of traders throwing and picking up and throwing.. @@

Stock

2015-11-26 12:16 | Report Abuse

Yes, notion this Q result is gonna be bullish...
In my worst case scenario, with 0 forex gains, no improvement in sales, EPS of 1 cent is guarenteed d...

With improvement in sales, + forex gain + derivatives gain... not unreasonable to see coming Q result similar to JCY/Dufu's current Q result.

Stock

2015-11-25 12:12 | Report Abuse

Some uninformed investors cutting loss, or worry abt the USD to RM which is 4.19 now...
Actually with the hedging M2M at 4.40 last Q forex at 4.1-4.30 range is perfect for notion... If december close at 4.1-4.3, EPS for coming Q of up to 3-4 cent is possible

Stock

2015-11-24 21:51 | Report Abuse

Jcy profit was from USD 4.40, n USD dropped to 4.25~
In notion case, d derivatives will b profit earning at least for Oct n Nov.
If Dec forex is lower than 4.4 u will see insane notion earning both from currency+hedging...

Stock

2015-11-23 15:13 | Report Abuse

I not exactly the same as u, as i took a bit profit in the last round, but this round, yes we same direction... i'm holding long term d from now on.. :)

*Subject to change as and when warranted by latest information* lol, have to write disclaimer d... nanti ppl say i send them to holland

Stock

2015-11-23 15:05 | Report Abuse

dont surprise me, if today TCF have share buy announcement..
his exit price +40 cent previously for an early batch.

Stock

2015-11-23 14:48 | Report Abuse

the shark attack d.... so big sell Q eaten in just 2, 3 transactions

Stock

2015-11-23 14:39 | Report Abuse

Hedging information is in every Q result.. page 10. B11 iirc... i didn't have any magical insider information.. it's there if you study/do your homework.

Stock

2015-11-23 14:28 | Report Abuse

the hedging price is updated every 3 months in their Q result, eventhough it may be M2M every month I guess, (not an accountant)

Previously it's hedged in June 3.77, after which RM got beaten like crazy until RM4.40, so there's a forex loss of 16%, of RM100m = about 15m loss u see in notion in the latest quarter result.

However, every quarter, they will 'settle' some parts of the hedge, about 23m per quarter..

So in the latest Q result for September, they took the 16m loss, and their outstanding hedge is 77m which is already marked to 4.40

Assuming 4.40 is peak, or at least 4.60 will be the peak, the 15m loss u see last Q should not happen again, and there could be some forex gain as well if RM is lower than 4.40 vs USD..

If RM > 4.4 by X% by december, you can just take 77million x the % to have a good estimate of any forex losses from their hedging.. anything lower, is a hedging gain.

Stock

2015-11-23 13:55 | Report Abuse

got some important announcements coming up.
1) forex rate by end of next week.
2) cipa SLR sales result

If this two results are good, turn around can occur as early as next week.

Of course, December will be watching forex and cipa slr result again...
Within 1 week to 1.1 months, there could be confirmation signal already

Stock

2015-11-23 13:35 | Report Abuse

Don't feel like talking too much d, make your own research to decide if you want to cut loss, add in, or sit out and wait.

Stock

2015-11-23 13:33 | Report Abuse

The Q result is for september... which is 2 months ago.. forex was 4.40 to RM back then. Since then.

USD drop from 4.40 > 4.29 for October. = Some realised derivative gain, as they settle their monthly hedging due.
For November... It's still 4.29 now even as USD interest rate talk is getting stronger. If it's below 4.40, another month of some small realised gain in hedging.
In december, From 4.30 still have some room for it to appreciate without triggering another M2M loss for Notion.

Would USD rise another 10%? 4.84 to RM? >> I think most will believe this is NOT LIKELY
Maybe at most, rise to 4.6, 5%... at outstanding hedge of 67m (after 10m matured in October n November), it'll be likely to loss 3-4m forex hedge.

Overall, probability of next Q outperforming far outweights this Q..

I think the sellers now will most probably regret in 3 months time....

Stock

2015-11-23 11:52 | Report Abuse

Master_tan, from your entry to notion forum, it's <3 months and you exit now.
You were timing the bottom, and n cutting loss..... technical player, probably an active trader too. Kakashit also same profile as you, go in at 42.5, have chance to sell at 47 but didn't sell. now he's stuck and is complaining. :) Traders, and speculators...

Stock

2015-11-23 11:38 | Report Abuse

Mmmm... master_tan stay calm when ppl panic, stay calm when ppl greed..
You were not calm when greed happen, and now you're not calm when panic happen

I do think selling now is a mistake, but as you've sold.. it's a bit too bad la, either you don't take any actions like anonymous and wait for the turnaround to complete, or you sold and took profit like some other did, and buy back now..

For me, it's actually a good time to buy in this range.

Stock

2015-11-22 22:25 | Report Abuse

I also feel they r still picky/choosy abt the customer or margin... I'm sure they can gain new customers if they throw price a bit. But of course, got pro n cons if they do that. Part of d reason I like notion is their high margin...

Stock

2015-11-22 22:22 | Report Abuse

What can they say? I would ask them abt their RnD dept n c if it makes sense to invest more into that dept really... They r not getting new products in to keep cnc machine utilization high.
It's been more than a year of SLR downturn, I think we can expect that SLR sales will not increase much n will b sideways.
So its really important they get new products from current customer, or new customers totally. In this regard they r slow to react...
The glass machine business after being mentioned, now no sound no gas d....

Stock

2015-11-20 15:33 | Report Abuse

cutie you n ur friends cleared 40c sell q is it :P

Stock

2015-11-20 15:06 | Report Abuse

exactly because whole thread post by me, you can see what i say all along.
Lol... when u fear TCF dump, i say stay calm, when you greed this week, i also say stay calm... you all greedy dont blame me.. poor me :(

Stock

2015-11-20 15:01 | Report Abuse

:) I think I'll just stay quiet now.. lol.
Kakashit, please feel free to cut loss.

Stock

2015-11-20 14:58 | Report Abuse

I would expect such important announcement to be done with '2 man rule/4 eyes' rule loh... that's pretty standard in financial reporting... really dunno how the result is 'approved' to be sent out.

Stock

2015-11-15 16:59 | Report Abuse

Today's price decreased is also caused by A LOT OF PPL buying in the morning session when they didn't check the Q result properly... these same ppl are now panic selling and cutting loss... making the technicals very bad, and causing more ppl to cut loss.

I really wonder wtf is bursa doing, with such a mistake in announcements. Even to the point i suspect it could be purposely done?

Technical players are getting cut left n right today....

Stock

2015-11-20 14:30 | Report Abuse

Of course at that time i expect revenue to stay same or increased, now we know revenue decreased, which causes more loss....

Up to you all to read the same report, and source for information, and make your own decision :)

Stock

2015-11-20 14:29 | Report Abuse

For the record, :P
I posted on 17/11/15

i think some ppl are too optimistic of this Q's result especially the talk abt dividends... it's really too soon.

QoQ, USD rised 16%, at outstanding hedging of 100m, M2M loss is around 13-15m, this is almost certainly to be confirmed.

I'll still say it's more likely that a loss will be coming this Q, around -5 to -1m depending on how much their revenue increased
17/11/2015 15:21

Stock

2015-11-20 14:24 | Report Abuse

I'm the only person who warn of loss here when u all talking abt dividend, breaking 50c and all... Lol. I shld stay quiet now :)

Stock

2015-11-20 12:49 | Report Abuse

Buy buy buy, don't just talk only :)

Stock

2015-11-20 11:20 | Report Abuse

But, fundamentally, I also will agree next Q gonna be good...
However, at the same time, I've lowered the FY2016 EPS as well, as I'm concerned their sales is not performing

Risks to my assessment.
+ve risk, notion can please surprise me, by getting new customer, or by increasing their product range with existing customer. (what happened with their glass business for example? So many things mentioned by tcf didn't happen d)
+ve risk, QoQ I do believe all segments have bottomed out, so next Q I do expect sales to outperform.

-ve risk, USD increase another 5-10%, it's pretty much confirmed notion will be positive, just positive how much only.
-ve risk, I've also decreased my trust in TCF's future guidance, as the things he said didn't really occur anymore, I would not blindly accept his promises or believe when he say new business d... (HP glass machine business for example)

Stock

2015-11-20 10:50 | Report Abuse

Please buy the 8k Q MarketWatcher :P

Stock

2015-11-20 10:48 | Report Abuse

It's pretty surprising the wrong figure is published in the first place.
For the figures to be published wrong TWICE.. that's stupid from bursa.

Such an important information, I'm sure bursa have a 2 man rule in place where the figure is confirmed by 2 person before publishing.
Is the syndicate power really that wide, until can effect things in bursa?

Stock

2015-11-20 10:31 | Report Abuse

The problem is there's a lot of ppl who think it's profitable this Q and goreng the share price up.
Also, a lot of ppl who too optimistic, all the talk about dividends, breaking 50 cents.

When you blow a bubble, don't be surprised the bubble pops

Stock

2015-11-20 09:58 | Report Abuse

Good time to stop n decide again... If already buy, u need to digest properly. For those buy this morning, ur avg shld be 43 ba.. It's not too bad I think, r u sure u matched at 45? I'm sure a lot throw at 44 n below.. My 44 not matched :( lol

Stock

2015-11-20 09:52 | Report Abuse

If u expect RM to drop another 10% then yes another 8m loss.. But chance of forex to drop is low

Stock

2015-11-20 09:47 | Report Abuse

Insane first few minutes... :)
Yeah.. Next q will b profitable. Assuming that the forex has topped, I really don't expect USD to jump another 10% ba.. Actually USD dropped a bit up until now... So possible may even have m2m gain next q.

Sales is a bit concern though...

Stock

2015-11-19 17:28 | Report Abuse

Their dubai operation is really dragging the co earnings down... :( wonder what they can do to turn it around? Offering lower prices to gain market share? It's been a couple year d I think since their dubai starter operations.

Stock

2015-11-19 16:13 | Report Abuse

Hehe.. cutie, I think you posted before JCY dropped just now :P hope you dont mean follow JCY drop when the shark finish pump and start dump..

Serious reversal on the afternoon session

Stock

2015-11-18 12:03 | Report Abuse

to be honest, I'd prefer if their fundamentels is stronger.
Can't really count of USD to RM being in such a good condition for long...

Not sure why they not willing to get into other product segments, or manufacture a wider variety of goods.
I think their machine utilization rate is still low, and they didn't properly replace the sales lost from SLR entirely..

Stock

2015-03-29 15:58 | Report Abuse

there's no renewed hedging... afaik la.
All until now it's stated clearly Q after Q, it went from over 250m in hedging, until now finally outstanding 100m hedging.

Every Q, you see a deduction of the hedging(settlement) amount between 20-30m one...
This 100m hedge is still part of their old 300m (kinda insane) hedge contracts, that have not fully settled/matured.

So this Q, you will need to be prepared for a M2M loss of 10-13m, how much their profit can offset this loss, cant say for certain, but it's too big a M2M loss for them to be profitable this Q that's for sure.

Stock

2015-11-17 17:35 | Report Abuse

anyway, by this friday we should know result d... let's hope for the best

Stock

2015-11-17 16:23 | Report Abuse

B11. DERIVATIVE FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
Type of derivatives Notional Value Fair Value as at 30.06.2015 as at 30.06.2015
Assets / (Liabilities)
RM’000 RM’000
Foreign Currency Hedging Contracts
-Less than 1 year 83,420 (8,760)
-1 year to 2 years 14,882 (2,153)
TOTAL _98,302 (10,913)

Anyway, summary even after 1 year, there's still 14m of hedging to go...
U need to read what the TCF say, they say 'majority of hedging will expire in may' not ALL hedging.

Stock

2015-11-21 08:45 | Report Abuse

cutie... read page 10, B11 of notion's last Q report..
:)

Stock

2015-11-17 15:21 | Report Abuse

i think some ppl are too optimistic of this Q's result especially the talk abt dividends... it's really too soon.

QoQ, USD rised 16%, at outstanding hedging of 100m, M2M loss is around 13-15m, this is almost certainly to be confirmed.

I'll still say it's more likely that a loss will be coming this Q, around -5 to -1m depending on how much their revenue increased

Stock

2015-11-16 13:09 | Report Abuse

aih.. 46.5 2k Q kena throw by shark :(

Stock

2015-11-16 10:10 | Report Abuse

47, start to see strong selling pressure

Stock

2015-11-16 10:09 | Report Abuse

Up until now, we have not see strong selling pressure... until the seller really throws, we won't know how strong the buyer can support or not

Stock

2015-11-16 10:17 | Report Abuse

Or when Q result disappoints, then the party will be over