market pricing is forward looking. it's all about future earnings and cash flows, discounted at prevailing discount rate.

Jaks is a long term investment.

Lock in your investments for 1-2 years.

Unless, you intend to increase your exposures, there's absolutely no need to look at share price on daily basis.

PE 6x, DY 4%

take care of the downside, and let upside take care by itself.

Investing is forward looking. What are the implications to the company earnings when CPO is trending at above 3000.

Back in 2012, JTiasa was valued at an EV/ha of RM68000 (CPO around RM3300)

From JP Morgan's report, Malaysian peers average EV/ha = US25,500 (say at USDMYR 4, RM equivalent = RM102,000)

To be conservative, let's value it at RM65000 EV/ha

JTIASA planted area 69,589ha = RM4,523mil in EV

Less net debt of RM883mil

Implied market cap = RM3,640mil

FV/share = RM3.74

well, PohHuat full year results meet my estimates.

dividend slightly lower by 1sen.



Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" 22sen is achievable. i believe Pohuat is able to pay out 8 sen dividend, similar to 2 years ago.

at 10x PE which is not excessive given its net cash position and growth rate, we should be looking at 2.20
11/09/2019 4:55 PM

Kenanga research mentioned that MPI's Suzhou plant is running at 104% utilization rate with revenue contribution from Suzhou expected to increase to 50%.

Penta is relentless

admire your confidence on Petronm

hi @pjseow

have you done any analysis on YTLPWR?

For 2020, a target annual return of 2-3x GDP = 10-15% is reasonable.

Icon8888 Next year difficult to make money

Most stocks had gone up

Can make 20% very good already

Dear Mr.Ooi,

Perhaps my writings have been taken out of context. In no way, i am referencing you. It was meant to be a general statement that can be apply to anyone involve in this field, be it members of this forum, investment bankers, fund managers, professional traders, retail investors etc. It is human nature to boast their successes, never their shortcomings.

FYI, i have participated in this forum for many years. perhaps this is the first time you have encountered and feel the urge to reply directly to my comment. I have never attack anyone in i3. Feel free to go through my past comments.

Also, i used to be one of your subscribers and i know how you work.

Hope you can recall correctly, whether i have in any way, commented on your records in the past.

i do agree with some of comments here advocating aggressive approach in order to grow ur capital base

but always bear in mind that risk management is the most essential element in investing

strike a balance between aggressiveness and defensiveness

always be reminded that potentially a BLACK SWAN event is lurking in the corner.

investing is a long game. no one know who wins until the end. you can make substantial profit in successive years but one mistake can wipe out all your gains.

again, BLACK SWAN. investing is dealing with uncertainty. it is in a field full of complexities.

also, as in life, everything reverts to its MEAN. know this and be mindful of it.

have some humility. successes feeds ego and over confidence. always be remember of what you don't know is more important than what you think you know.

i'm grounded in that respect. you don't see me shouting how much ROI i achieve in my investments. beware of those who did so. no one trump their losses or weakness in public forums.

all the best in your investing journey. and Happy New Year.

It's a 6 months portfolio.

Come back and update your progress in 10 years time. Or as and when there's a market crash (drop by 30%) to gauge how your investing strategy/process stands during such times.

Any corporate exercise in play?


TheContrarian ivan9511, OSK is also mopping up OSKVI shares in the past three trading days.
23/12/2019 7:30 PM

banking stocks should be in favor next year

above RM1

i used to drink DL milk 5 years ago. had already switched to farm fresh

wow, any news that i'm not aware of?

while everyone despise the PE 50 multiple. QL share price keep increasing relentlessly

no IB analysts bother to initiate coverage on this company

it's sort of under the radar.

if only the company have some decent investor relations and get one or two analysts, interest in this stock should increase

Latest book value RM3.80

At current price, P/BV is 0.7x

If Alliance does ROE 8-9% this year
Implied P/BV of 0.8x, FV = RM3.04
Implied P/BV of 0.9x, FV =RM3.42

Above assumptions are based on BV 3.80, no growth implied

second half earnings will be better, management guided so. but would not be able to recover y-o-y growth

excluding the one off gain, still operating losses

JTIASA has the cheapest valuation among all the listed plantations in terms of EV/HA

next year earnings should bounce back from this year low base

current valuations at trough level

slowly but surely. it is envisaged that the banking sector as a whole would experience somewhat between 4-5% earnings growth next year.

alliance loan growth is projected to grow above industry average of 6-7%.

ROE should inch up towards 9-10% and correspondingly P/BV multiple will normalise back to its mean

this is capitalism at its best

excellent results, Scientex

profit margin expansion = earnings + FCF growth = PE multiple expansion

this is the trajectory we should be looking at

earnings growth will take care of ROE (if you really fixated on this metric alone)

annualised earnings around 37sen per share

say PE 12x, implied value = RM4.44 + 0.31 (net cash) = RM4.75

next year 2020 earnings, say grow conservatively in line with GDP, you get around 39-40 sen EPS

for comparison, their 3 year average earnings was 40.5sen

i believe they will do better than 3 year average

Can treat it as fixed deposits while waiting for potential catalysts to unlock this gem.

You get 9 sen dividend every year. Dividends are well supported by its cash generation ability.

This company is prime candidate for privatization. Net cash is more than 50% market cap. Current valuation is at 0.6x of book value.

Used to be darling of Bursa, but performance was greatly affected by loss of business to Datasonic in previous years.

this one is much regret. i missed the boat, entirely.

Well, i do enjoy reading Ricky's blog though.

It fulfills my "intellectual pursuit".

Investing is easy when value emerges.

Latest book value RM3.80

If Alliance does ROE 8-9% this year
Implied P/BV of 0.8x, FV = RM3.04
Implied P/BV of 0.9x, FV =RM3.42

If substantially below PE 15x i may consider buying.

Bought ABMB. Valuations are dirt cheap.

This is an irrelevant subject to touch on in the field of investing.

Bonus issue + increased dividends

YiStock bonus issue + split
03/12/2019 3:37 PM

newbie, perhaps you should stay away from the market, learned your trade (read up and learn from the experienced investors) before investing your hard earned money.

the market is very unforgiving.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/241253.jsp

i still believe earnings recovery are imminent

i have sold mine at 1.65 yesterday

will look to re-enter again

so far i read are all positive bias.

what about the negative factors? the risks involved?

i currently reading Factfulness. Had completed the Jared Diamond's trilogy

it's getting closed to that i believe.

if i'm not wrong, latest ROIC is at 18%

it's not far fetched to predict this company can produce annual FCF of 500-600mil (>10% of current market cap)

but i do have to take note of what Ricky pointed out.

the competitive landscape surrounding the industry.

and the ability to scale up.

if the company is growing 20% over the next few years, it's fair to pay PE 13x (though note that i didn't pay 13x, i believe its a fair valuation. my cost is at single digit PE)

whether it's a great long term investment, i'm not sure.

it's not my core holdings anyway.