Dividend yield is getting close to 10%

I'll buy some when PE drops below 20x.

The potential profit to be derived is mind blowing, and with higher certainty.

Currently, the stock market is not valuing companies with strong balance sheet with net cash position. This can be contributed by the low interest rate environment. Where the excess liquidity has been deployed to highly leveraged companies with explosive earnings growth. Over the last few years, growth stocks have largely outperformed value stocks.

Having strong cash position doesn’t add value to the company’s valuation, as implied by the market.

Take Poh Huat as an example. Current PE multiple is 6x. Adjusted for net cash, PE multiple is only 4x. This is for a company that has grown its earnings by 7% in its latest financial year. However, the current PE multiple implies that Poh Huat earnings are in a decline. To put it another way, if you set a minimum target return similar to the long term market return of 10% and compared that required return against Poh Huat earnings yield of 30%, is that market valuation justifiable?

Even looking from the balance sheet perspective, it’s P/BV is only 0.9x for a company that earns ROE of 15% and ROIC of 28%. It’s cash yield is around 9% based on average FCF, almost 3 times of what you get from risk free rate.

anyone picking up a falling knive?

Gemfinder has found its ultimate gem in Evolve concept mall.

Trading calls by IBs (arrange by hurdles)

AmInvest 1.56
HLIB 1.65
RHB 1.60-1.70
Affin 1.84

Following my previous comments.

When he bought at 1.34, i'm 100% certain that his investment thesis then was not based on the performance of Evolve Concept mall.

The underperformance of the mall was nothing new. It has been largely priced in, in the past.

Rather than focusing on the investment merits, he allows the share price to dictate his action. He was too fixated at share price and allow mr.market to tell him what to do.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get. But if you are clueless of the value that you bought, the only source of value you get is from mr.market himself.



Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > Jan 20, 2020 10:04 AM | Report Abuse X

If only he has a bit more conviction, he would be "in the money" now.



Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD
Nov 23, 2019 10:33 AM | Report Abuse

Hope for the best. I enter 1.34



But sadly, he get scared by the share price movement.

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD
Nov 25, 2019 12:22 PM | Report Abuse

shivering now!!!!


As the typical saying goes:
"A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing."

Interesting thesis by 888next

Conclusion: MGO is inevitable?

If only he has a bit more conviction, he would be "in the money" now.



Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD
Nov 23, 2019 10:33 AM | Report Abuse

Hope for the best. I enter 1.34



But sadly, he get scared by the share price movement.

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD
Nov 25, 2019 12:22 PM | Report Abuse

shivering now!!!!


As the typical saying goes:
"A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing."

Sourgrapes, trying to spread lies here. Only making yourself look more idiotic.

"The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting."

Learn from Charlie Munger.

SKPRES is under the radar. Creeping up nicely.

Should be looking at RM2.

still buying the FEAR and selling the GREED?


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/TheCatalysts/2019-12-29-story-h1481950249-BAT_The_Potential_WINDOW_DRESSING_Candidate.jsp

wow PE below 15x

The new power plant is relatively small compared to other assets.

Based on Affin's estimates, the enterprise value of the Attarat plant is 1.2bil v. Power Seraya 4bil & Wessel Water 19bil

Yes Communications losses will be a drag to overall earnings. Key risk is potential capital injection to fund for new capex.

YTLP has more downside risks. the continuing losses of YES, weak performance from Power Seraya

Bought some 2.02

funds cannot afford to be patient. they can't afford to have capital lock in for years while stock is not performing and the fund is underperforming relative to its benchmark

there is no catalyst in sight. no value creation situation to unlock the value

as a retailer, we can afford to have bit more patience. the way i see it, it's yield of 6% at 6.50 is attractive enough. my capital is not earning nothing. it's better than FD but of course one has to decide the risk reward situation relative to your appetite

my view is that the net cash of 60% should give a cushion to downside risk

take care of downside, and let upside take care by itself

even after adjusting for apparently "riskier" asset profile, ABMB capital ratios are still very healthy

at current valuation, it's a good bet to get through this "difficult period" while waiting for the earnings (normalization of its annual loan loss provision) and hence valuation multiple to normalize

Aberdeen is still selling. perhaps partly explain why the share price hardly move

actually, the company can create more value to shareholders. their net cash position is 60% of market cap

they should initiate some buy back, increase dividends or even seek acquisitions with such big hoards of cash

Outliar
Why is ABMB your biggest position besides it being dumped down to the price it is now because of impairment losses. Currently trading at 0.7x P/B but ROA comfortably less than 1% now, barely 1% at its peak, gearing ratio currently 8.8, I don't know, I don't see it being that superb? Is it purely because of the impairments which may or may not be a one off provision?


Obviously, you don't understand banking much.
Some fundamental knowledge:
1) P/B is tied to its ROE. ABMB ROE is projected around 9% v. 0.7x P/B
2) Instead of ROA, banks look at RORWA (return on risk weighted assets). Despite the lower earnings recorded in first half, ABMB RORWA is still at 1.04% (commendable)
3) Instead of gearing, to gauge the Bank's liquidity/funding and capital structure, these are the ratios to look at, as regulated by BNM

Liquidity: ABMB liquidity coverage ratio is 161.5% (way above BNM requirement of >100%)
Capital: ABMB CET1 and Total Capital ratio at 13.5% and 18.6% (way above BNM requirement of 4.5% and 8% respectively)

Say 50% discount on EV/ha based calculation, you are looking at RM1.87

bear in mind, zero value is absribed to its timber business.




Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > Jan 5, 2020 10:08 AM | Report Abuse X

Back in 2012, JTiasa was valued at an EV/ha of RM68000 (CPO around RM3300)

From JP Morgan's report, Malaysian peers average EV/ha = US25,500 (say at USDMYR 4, RM equivalent = RM102,000)

To be conservative, let's value it at RM65000 EV/ha

JTIASA planted area 69,589ha = RM4,523mil in EV

Less net debt of RM883mil

Implied market cap = RM3,640mil

FV/share = RM3.74

market pricing is forward looking. it's all about future earnings and cash flows, discounted at prevailing discount rate.

Jaks is a long term investment.

Lock in your investments for 1-2 years.

Unless, you intend to increase your exposures, there's absolutely no need to look at share price on daily basis.

PE 6x, DY 4%

take care of the downside, and let upside take care by itself.

Investing is forward looking. What are the implications to the company earnings when CPO is trending at above 3000.

Back in 2012, JTiasa was valued at an EV/ha of RM68000 (CPO around RM3300)

From JP Morgan's report, Malaysian peers average EV/ha = US25,500 (say at USDMYR 4, RM equivalent = RM102,000)

To be conservative, let's value it at RM65000 EV/ha

JTIASA planted area 69,589ha = RM4,523mil in EV

Less net debt of RM883mil

Implied market cap = RM3,640mil

FV/share = RM3.74

well, PohHuat full year results meet my estimates.

dividend slightly lower by 1sen.



Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" 22sen is achievable. i believe Pohuat is able to pay out 8 sen dividend, similar to 2 years ago.

at 10x PE which is not excessive given its net cash position and growth rate, we should be looking at 2.20
11/09/2019 4:55 PM

Kenanga research mentioned that MPI's Suzhou plant is running at 104% utilization rate with revenue contribution from Suzhou expected to increase to 50%.

Penta is relentless

admire your confidence on Petronm

hi @pjseow

have you done any analysis on YTLPWR?

For 2020, a target annual return of 2-3x GDP = 10-15% is reasonable.

Icon8888 Next year difficult to make money

Most stocks had gone up

Can make 20% very good already

Dear Mr.Ooi,

Perhaps my writings have been taken out of context. In no way, i am referencing you. It was meant to be a general statement that can be apply to anyone involve in this field, be it members of this forum, investment bankers, fund managers, professional traders, retail investors etc. It is human nature to boast their successes, never their shortcomings.

FYI, i have participated in this forum for many years. perhaps this is the first time you have encountered and feel the urge to reply directly to my comment. I have never attack anyone in i3. Feel free to go through my past comments.

Also, i used to be one of your subscribers and i know how you work.

Hope you can recall correctly, whether i have in any way, commented on your records in the past.

i do agree with some of comments here advocating aggressive approach in order to grow ur capital base

but always bear in mind that risk management is the most essential element in investing

strike a balance between aggressiveness and defensiveness

always be reminded that potentially a BLACK SWAN event is lurking in the corner.

investing is a long game. no one know who wins until the end. you can make substantial profit in successive years but one mistake can wipe out all your gains.

again, BLACK SWAN. investing is dealing with uncertainty. it is in a field full of complexities.

also, as in life, everything reverts to its MEAN. know this and be mindful of it.

have some humility. successes feeds ego and over confidence. always be remember of what you don't know is more important than what you think you know.

i'm grounded in that respect. you don't see me shouting how much ROI i achieve in my investments. beware of those who did so. no one trump their losses or weakness in public forums.

all the best in your investing journey. and Happy New Year.

It's a 6 months portfolio.

Come back and update your progress in 10 years time. Or as and when there's a market crash (drop by 30%) to gauge how your investing strategy/process stands during such times.

Any corporate exercise in play?


TheContrarian ivan9511, OSK is also mopping up OSKVI shares in the past three trading days.
23/12/2019 7:30 PM

banking stocks should be in favor next year

above RM1

i used to drink DL milk 5 years ago. had already switched to farm fresh

wow, any news that i'm not aware of?

while everyone despise the PE 50 multiple. QL share price keep increasing relentlessly

no IB analysts bother to initiate coverage on this company

it's sort of under the radar.

if only the company have some decent investor relations and get one or two analysts, interest in this stock should increase

Latest book value RM3.80

At current price, P/BV is 0.7x

If Alliance does ROE 8-9% this year
Implied P/BV of 0.8x, FV = RM3.04
Implied P/BV of 0.9x, FV =RM3.42

Above assumptions are based on BV 3.80, no growth implied

second half earnings will be better, management guided so. but would not be able to recover y-o-y growth

excluding the one off gain, still operating losses

JTIASA has the cheapest valuation among all the listed plantations in terms of EV/HA

next year earnings should bounce back from this year low base

current valuations at trough level

slowly but surely. it is envisaged that the banking sector as a whole would experience somewhat between 4-5% earnings growth next year.

alliance loan growth is projected to grow above industry average of 6-7%.

ROE should inch up towards 9-10% and correspondingly P/BV multiple will normalise back to its mean