Fabien _the efficient capital allocator

fabienwks | Joined since 2010-12-10

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Stock

2020-07-02 19:55 | Report Abuse

net cash (after adjusted for dividend 159mil) is 4,033mil

price at 1.81, market cap = 4,177mil

you are paying 303mil for its entire business

net current asset is 4,495mil = 2.18 per share

even at 1.85, your return on NCA = 17.8%

first target NCA = 2.18

Stock

2020-07-02 19:25 | Report Abuse

perhaps the share price hangover was due to public invest coverage

price up after good riddance of that analyst

sometimes if you don't possess of that vision. to be able to see further ahead of what's blocking in front of you, too fixated on current terms. that's what happened to that poor analyst. too myopic, narrow focused. unable to see the big picture

poor guy, Tan Siang Hing, doubt he will ever thrive in investing

Stock

2020-07-01 19:36 | Report Abuse

under rated prop stock. trading not even half of its NTA 2.60

i decided to take positions, partly due to the dividends and its cheap valuation

as a value investor, i just can't resist a bargain purchase

Stock

2020-07-01 19:32 | Report Abuse

my target price remains at rm5 at least based on projected earnings (assuming no change to its PE multiplier which is considered rather low at 8x v. its peers)

we should be looking at PE of 12x. a re-rating is not unreasonable given its double digit (increasing) ROE

Stock

2020-07-01 19:29 | Report Abuse

TGUAN remains at explosive growth phase, albeit minor blip in its pace this year. having said that, the co has steadily increased its dividend payout in line with increasing earnings

Stock

2020-07-01 15:50 | Report Abuse

Looking back at my previous comments.

Value investing has its days too...all you need is a little patience...


Stock: [POHUAT]: POH HUAT RESOURCES HOLDINGS BHD

May 8, 2020 7:52 PM | Report Abuse

yes, pohuat valuation is at extreme low. at current price, it implies that the company is facing severe impairment to its earnings power

even pre-covid, its market valuation multiple has been very low compared to its peers. and this company has been doing ROE of 15% in the last few years

sometimes, you just need to look hard and think whether the market has been unduly irrational in pricing some companies

well, value is in the eyes of the beholder

to me, it's value play, pure and simple


Stock: [POHUAT]: POH HUAT RESOURCES HOLDINGS BHD

May 18, 2020 5:05 PM | Report Abuse

when the retailers are busy chasing the hot themes...irregardless of fundamentals

while we value investors, quietly accumulating bargain stocks

life has been good...


Stock: [POHUAT]: POH HUAT RESOURCES HOLDINGS BHD

May 27, 2020 8:09 PM | Report Abuse

sure, it's boring here. no excitement at all....quiet enough for the CEO to accumulate shares

Stock

2020-07-01 15:43 | Report Abuse

17.5billion order book which already above management target of 15bil this year

YTD order book replenishment of 9.7bil

earnings on track at least 10% CAGR

Stock

2020-07-01 15:38 | Report Abuse

will it end above 1.60 or below, it doesn't matter in the short term. i'm very confident the share price trajectory over the long term is only one way that is UP

Stock

2020-07-01 15:17 | Report Abuse

rotational play to furniture counters?

both Liihen and Pohuat up

Stock

2020-07-01 15:16 | Report Abuse

rotational play to furniture counters?

both Liihen and Pohuat up

Stock

2020-06-30 17:44 | Report Abuse

bought some at 0.91

4.5sen dividend to be locked in soon

News & Blogs

2020-06-28 21:43 | Report Abuse

When you think you are a better investor than Warren Buffett, Howard Marks, Stanley Drunkenmiller, Mohamed El-Erian, to name a few.

Stock
News & Blogs

2020-06-24 21:43 | Report Abuse

Very obvious SAM is deeply undervalued vis-a-vis its peers.

Valuation is unjustified given its track record. A simple back of the envelope calculation shows it deserves a blended PE of 25x at least.

Stock

2020-06-22 21:13 | Report Abuse

commendable performance

the management has proven again and again

this gem is worth a keep

Stock

2020-06-17 23:13 | Report Abuse

Latest NTA 9.10

Pre-covid from beginning of the year, P/BV is at least 0.6x (=RM5.46)

end 2019 P/BV was 0.7x (=RM6.37)

over the last 5 years, the max P/BV was 2.05x in January 2019

median was 0.9x

General

2020-06-16 20:10 | Report Abuse

3iii

don't get me wrong, i am not prohibited by high PE from investing in any wonderful companies

what i'm trying to say is given the exceptional profit growth in the next 1-2 years, with mean reversion in mind, don't you think the forward PE as implied by current price is sustainable vis a vis its historical PE valuation.

i paid PE 38x to own Disney shares as i believe the future runway is still very long, i'm not too sure about TopGlove

General

2020-06-16 15:32 | Report Abuse

it implies forward PE of 30x.

such valuation sustainable?

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > Jun 16, 2020 3:30 PM | Report Abuse

Topglove


At RM 15.56 per share, its market cap is RM 41.7 billion.

I project Topgloves' total earnings for this and next 3 quarters to be RM 1.4 billion.

General

2020-06-16 11:43 | Report Abuse

SAM

Growth stock albeit temporary headwinds, valuation are undemanding

General

2020-06-16 11:42 | Report Abuse

HLIND

Strong FCF generation

Cash cow

Stock

2020-06-12 20:17 | Report Abuse

LCTitan net current asset per share is 2.18

benjamin graham would have been an eager buyer, even more so when it drop below its net cash per share

Stock

2020-06-10 12:12 | Report Abuse

have a look at the annual report. there is no mention on the competition risks from new airport. it remains as business as usual as far as communication from the management

Stock

2020-06-02 15:35 | Report Abuse

hope it breaks first target 4.50

Stock

2020-06-02 13:46 | Report Abuse

once the economy is fully opened up, gaming would rebound the fastest. you can't bet against human nature, ingrained over hundred of years of evolution, when gambling became an obsession since the ancient kingdom

Stock

2020-06-01 20:02 | Report Abuse

CIMB Target Price - RM5.06

The resilient demand for PVC food wraps should assist Thong Guan to stay on a growth
path. With the ringgit and oil prices expected to remain depressed, we upgrade Thong
Guan to Add. Our higher TP of RM5.06 is still based on 13x FY21F P/E, our target
multiple for the packaging sector, based on its 10-year historical valuation. Upside risks
for the stock include further declines in ringgit and raw material prices. Downside risks
are a rebound in oil prices and the US dollar enervating.

Stock

2020-05-27 20:09 | Report Abuse

sure, it's boring here. no excitement at all....quiet enough for the CEO to accumulate shares

Stock

2020-05-21 19:37 | Report Abuse

First quarter seems promising.


Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > Nov 20, 2019 3:12 PM | Report Abuse X

Next year EPS should normalise, back to growth trajectory.

Stock
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Stock

2020-05-21 15:50 | Report Abuse

slow and steady

i bought 5.00 exactly a month ago. now 5.70, >13% return in a month

who says can't make money in Orient

Stock

2020-05-21 09:35 | Report Abuse

This AmInvestment analyst is a joke. From 1.05 less than a month ago, a company's valuation can changed so drastically to 2.20.

We upgrade our call on Serba Dinamik Holdings (Serba) to BUY from SELL with a higher fair value of RM2.20/share (from an earlier RM1.05/share), based on a 30% discount to our diluted sum-of-parts (SOP) valuation of RM3.15/share vs. a previous P/BV target of 1.3x.

Watchlist

2020-05-20 19:28 | Report Abuse

IB analysts just cari makan...they also follows the herd...the fear of missing out...so they won't make to feel an outlier when proven wrong. the market can remain irrational but for how long, no one knows for certain. so better be safe, and ride with the crowd....

while everyone...the retailers, mostly, are chasing the hot theme, new bloggers emerged and the IB analysts came up with superficial projections, Philip has sold his entire holdings in his beloved Top Glove and i believe he has done right...

Stock

2020-05-20 18:53 | Report Abuse

9th consecutive quarter with net profit up y-o-y

Stock

2020-05-20 12:24 | Report Abuse

time to look at laggards like cash rich Kumpulan Fima

Stock

2020-05-20 12:23 | Report Abuse

time to look at laggards like cash rich Kumpulan Fima

Stock

2020-05-18 20:13 | Report Abuse

market present opportunities for u to take advantage with...

love selldown more than up

anyway, mix ur strategy a bit..deploy your capital wisely

like me, i balance 50%-50% between growth & value

for growth, i bought Serba at 1.50 & Kawan at 0.975

for value, i bought Poh Huat at 0.87 & Orient at 5.00

Stock

2020-05-18 19:45 | Report Abuse

Both revenue & net profit recorded growth y-o-y

First interim dividend of 2sen declared

Stock

2020-05-18 17:05 | Report Abuse

when the retailers are busy chasing the hot themes...irregardless of fundamentals

while we value investors, quietly accumulating bargain stocks

life has been good...

Stock

2020-05-18 17:02 | Report Abuse

whether it's comfort or supermax, you should find out at current price, how much growth has been embedded in. do you realise how irrational is it??

Stock

2020-05-18 17:00 | Report Abuse

marching onwards towards PE 15x

Stock

2020-05-18 16:59 | Report Abuse

i remember back in March, ppl were selling as low as RM3.10. it had since rebounded and never look back

Stock

2020-05-18 16:37 | Report Abuse

both factors will drive its prospect

demand v. supply dynamics
feedstock costs which correlates with crude oil price

Stock

2020-05-14 20:00 | Report Abuse

Net profit is projected to grow at 10-15% v. GDP -0.2-0.5%

And this company is valued at 10x PE on historical earnings, not even half of Dialog's valuation.

"Global integrated engineering solutions provider Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd is targeting to grow 10-15 per cent in 2020 for both the top and bottom lines compared with previous years growth of 15-20 per cent.

This was due to disruption in progress during the Movement Control Order (MCO) following the COVID-19 pandemic which has caused global economic volatility.

Group managing director and group chief executive officer Datuk Mohd Abdul Karim Abdullah said however, the company is optimistic and confident of achieving the target as it has already executed plans to increase its non-oil and gas (O&G) revenue to about 70 per cent over the next three years, while reducing revenue dependency on the O&G sector to about 30 per cent.

Serba Dinamik's entire orderbook currently stood at RM17 billion, of which 45 per cent comes from O&G, while 55 per cent are non-O&G.


"We are encouraged that economic activities are now in full swing. We have been working hard to ensure that our operations in Malaysia and in other parts of world, which are all operational, are well position to handle their respective challenges.

"Under the operations and maintenance (O&M) business segment for example, even though oil price collapses, the production platforms are still running.

"As a result, our contracts is still active and honoured and are utilised because equipment needs to be maintained to ensure that they are in good condition to carry out the necessary production required," he said in his online interaction with the media on Thursday.

On the group's engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) segment, Mohd Abdul Karim said 55 per cent of its orderbook in the segment now comes from non-O&G-related activity, which includes its Chlor Alkaline Plant in Tanzania that uses salt to make brine for chlorine production.

Besides EPCC, other non-O&G revenue contributor is expected to derive from its its hydropower plant in Kota Marudu, Sabah, an innovation hub development in Saudi Arabia, as well other integrated information technology solution-related projects, mainly on the Industrial Revolution 4.0 frontier.

He said the acquisition of University Malaysia of Computer Science & Engineering (UNIMY) earlier this year would also be one of the revenue contributor, where it is positioning the institution as a premier higher learning institution and expanding it globally soon.

Serba Dinamik recently undertook a private placement exercise, securing RM456.7 million on April 24,2020, with the aim of pairing down its debts with some financial institutions and providing working capital for existing projects.

Mohd Abdul Karim said the the exercise was also to ensure that the group is able to maintain and manage its strategic manner, while making sure that its trajectory of sales and revenue is achievable for 2020.

Affin Hwang Investment Bank, CIMB Investment Bank and Credit Suisse were the appointed bankers for the share placement exercise."

Stock

2020-05-14 19:49 | Report Abuse

BPPlastic just recorded a decent quarter despite lower revenue its gross profit margin has improved contributed to higher profit y-o-y

Stock

2020-05-08 19:52 | Report Abuse

yes, pohuat valuation is at extreme low. at current price, it implies that the company is facing severe impairment to its earnings power

even pre-covid, its market valuation multiple has been very low compared to its peers. and this company has been doing ROE of 15% in the last few years

sometimes, you just need to look hard and think whether the market has been unduly irrational in pricing some companies

well, value is in the eyes of the beholder

to me, it's value play, pure and simple

News & Blogs

2020-05-08 15:54 | Report Abuse

in times like this, you want to put your heard earned money with proven companies, such as Orient that have survived few generations, few economic crisis

of course, things can change in the future. but no one knows the future with much certainty

this company has shown to be resilient

end of day, it boils down to balance sheet strength

News & Blogs

2020-05-06 19:44 | Report Abuse

even at this price, it's very much a bargain

you should have to look beyond a quarter or two

Stock

2020-05-06 14:42 | Report Abuse

thanks for the article.

i myself too rate Oriental as a long term investment, up there with the likes such as Hong Leong Industries, the undervalued and underappreciated gems.