i currently reading Factfulness. Had completed the Jared Diamond's trilogy

it's getting closed to that i believe.

if i'm not wrong, latest ROIC is at 18%

it's not far fetched to predict this company can produce annual FCF of 500-600mil (>10% of current market cap)

but i do have to take note of what Ricky pointed out.

the competitive landscape surrounding the industry.

and the ability to scale up.

if the company is growing 20% over the next few years, it's fair to pay PE 13x (though note that i didn't pay 13x, i believe its a fair valuation. my cost is at single digit PE)

whether it's a great long term investment, i'm not sure.

it's not my core holdings anyway.

This company is a cash generating machine. Incredible cash flows.

From QR report:

The Board expects the ongoing construction of SPE, River of Life beautification packages, the toll
revenue and the sales of completed properties units will continue to contribute positively to the
Group's turnover and profitability in the current financial year. The Company is working closely
with the Government on various infrastructure projects which has been proposed to the
Government. In addition, the Company is also working together with the local partners in Sabah
and Sarawak to tender and secure construction contracts directly from the Government. The
Board is hopeful that the Company is able to secure some of these projects

if you take heed of what mr.market does, i fear for your mental heath.

last week, HLIND drop to 9.70. within 2 days, mr.market "valued" it at 10.48

within a week, the company valuation changed by 250mil

Even in Malaysia, there's plenty of stocks giving earnings yield above 10% v. government bonds yield of 3%+

it's a no brainer to be continue invested in equities

took some profit at 1.65

cheers!

AJI is looking tasty.

i crave for more

focus on the business fundamentals and not be guided by movement in share prices

unless the market is telling you something you didn't know. most of the times it's just noise.

i will continue to hold TGUAN



Stock: [TGUAN]: THONG GUAN INDUSTRIES BHD
Nov 21, 2019 11:34 AM | Report Abuse

average PE multiple is around 12x

CIMB ascribed a PE of 13x for packaging sector

i believe 40sen earnings is achievable in 2020

estimated valuation = 12 x 0.40 = RM4.80
plus net cash 0.31sen
TP = RM5.11

it's up to you to take advantage of the mispricing, unless you agreed with mr.market

management has always been shareholder friendly. even in "bad times" they still do ROE of 15%
and consistently declaring dividends

management, as always, have been very conservative in it's profit guidance but i believe the furniture industry, as a whole, is witnessing a positive structural change driven by trade diversion

a price advantage for Malaysian furniture exporters

if you look at past results, Liihen has recorded 4 consecutive profit growth (above 40% y-o-y growth for 3 quarters and 1 quarter >100%).

book value has consistently growing each quarter, from 1.20 in Sep'15. That's 16 quarters of consecutive growth in book value

net cash position has increased to 68sen (22% of market cap)

they used to declare 22sen dividend in 2015 and 20sen in 2016

current year profit will exceed those earned in 2015 and 2016, i believe we will see at least 20sen dividend again soon

should be looking at a minimum RM4

ROE >20%, ROIC>40%

this stock should be valued at least 2x BV (=RM4.02 based on latest BV 2.02)

earnings wise, not far fetched to project at least 9x min PER on annualised EPS of 42sen
(0.42*9 + net cash 0.68) = RM4.50

earnings yield is whopping 25% (6 times more than risk free rate)

free cash flows is growing. latest cash yield is 14%

it's not unreasonable to say this stock should be valued at the higher end of PE range for furniture stocks, i.e. 10x, for its quality earnings growth and strong balance sheet

above my expectations. i was expecting 10sen EPS.

Liihen on track to achieve record earnings, back to its heydays in 2016-2017

annualised EPS is around 42sen

good opportunity to collect at lower price. i remember similar situation last year when HLIND removed from Syariah compliant list.

Icon is very aggressive

But it's a good time to make money and to be rich.

YiStock has in depth analysis on TGUAN

maybe he can share some of his insights

average PE multiple is around 12x

CIMB ascribed a PE of 13x for packaging sector

i believe 40sen earnings is achievable in 2020

estimated valuation = 12 x 0.40 = RM4.80
plus net cash 0.31sen
TP = RM5.11

Profit margin expanded to 6%

Annualised ROE 11% (>10%)
Annualised ROIC 18% (even better >15%)
Earnings yield 15.93%

PER 7.8x
Ex cash PER 7x

Teo Seng just reported a good set of results

Next year EPS should normalise, back to growth trajectory.

CIMB TP 3.65:
We maintain our Add call with a higher TP of RM3.65 (12.3x CY21F P/E) as we roll over
our valuation year to end-2020F. We continue to like YSP for: i) its attractive valuation of
9.6x CY21 P/E (22% discount to its 5-year historical mean of 12.3x), ii) its net cash
position of RM47.7m (as at end-3Q19), and iii) the inelastic demand for drugs. Potential
re-rating catalysts are stronger-than-expected sales locally and regionally. Downside
risks to our call: decline in sales volume and continued losses in its Vietnam operations.

It's good news for YSP too.

From CIMB report:
We expect YSP to record stronger 4Q19 results, in tandem with higher drug demand
from government medical facilities. This is premised on: i) 4Q being a seasonally stronger
period, and ii) government facilities increasing drug orders with its suppliers due to earlier
concerns of a disruption to medical supply on expectations that the government would
not renew Pharmaniaga’s concession agreement (CA) to provide logistics and distribution
services for drugs under approved product purchase list (APPL). It has since been
announced that Pharmaniaga has obtained two extensions for services under the CA

too illiquid to my liking

in situation like this, shareholders interest tend to be not taken care of. in other words, ignored

there is also opportunity for arbitrage

i'm eagerly awaiting AliBaba new listing in HK

i will hold until RM2

i am hoping for a 20sen dividend

if u have a longer term view, this stock is worth at least RM2

At current price, you have above 30% margin of safety

Icon, Alliance is impacted (loan loss provisions) due to their huge exposures to London Biscuits

heath care is resilient. it's less impacted by trade war or economic cylicality and more influenced by secular growth

Have you heard of REGRESSION TO THE MEAN?

over time, business fundamentals would eventually revert to their mean


Posted by stockraider > Nov 3, 2019 1:01 PM | Report Abuse

What 3iii says is correctloh....but the devil is in its details implementation loh....!!

If u buy into very overvalue stock like Nestle, Dlady and Petdag with sometime PE even exceeding 50x, how could u expect outperformance leh ?

In order to make very big monies, u need to buy into earning recovering on a very battered down undervalue stock that give u both upside in share price upgrade in undervalue rerating plus strong earnings rerating in earnings recovery loh.....!!

Armada is a clear example here loh....!!

1Q results should be out within this week

Book Value BV Growth
Q319 10.97 3.98%
2018 10.55 8.99%
2017 9.68 9.26%
2016 8.86 9.52%
2015 8.09 11.43%
2014 7.26

P/BV FV
Y1 10.9746 2.0 21.95
2.1 23.05
2.2 24.14
2.3 25.24
2.4 26.34
2.5 27.44

Assume to grow at GDP 4.5%
P/BV FV
Y2 11.4685 2.0 22.94
2.1 24.08
2.2 25.23
2.3 26.38
2.4 27.52
2.5 28.67

Y3 11.9845 P/BV FV
2.0 23.97
2.1 25.17
2.2 26.37
2.3 27.56
2.4 28.76
2.5 29.96

Possible range of FV depending on P/BV multiple
P/BV = market psychology

Very stable performance. ROE remains good at 13%.

Let’s get the expectations right. In investing for assets play, you MAY or MAY NOT enjoy the benefits of realization of its hidden value. The MAY NOT is the risk of value trap. On the other hand, in the MAY scenario (of which no one knows when), you will win big (because of the narrowing of huge discount between price and value), and that big win will provide a very good average return (despite of many years of no return). Hence, in employing investing strategy based on assets, to minimize your duration risk (since we do not know when the catalyst emerge or will it ever crystalize), it is better to have a diversified portfolio.

The nature of their earnings, being an investment holding, tend to be erratic or lumpy

Their investments in inari alone, if to be realised, is far exceeded the entire company enterprise value

when the risk reward profile is so favourable, i see very little risk in investing in Insas. a case of limited downside, huge upside



3iii Return on Assets 3.59
Return on Equity 4.83
Return on Total Capital 2.26
Return on Invested Capital 4.46

even at very conservative growth assumptions of 1-3%, HLI is worth at least RM15

The only way to create value is to distribute the excess cash to shareholders.

perhaps i have too much faith in our economy so much so that i wallop all the big banks

bought CIMB, Maybank, Hong Leong and Public Bank at the beginning of the month. lol

No need to crack your head. Other Banks may face possibility of asset quality erosion but not Public Bank.

I bought at 19.10. During bad times, capital flight to quality.

No one interested in Kawan? It's creeping up nicely

ROE of 9%-10%. we should be looking at min 1x book value.

BV projected at RM6 per share.

TP is RM6.

Let's say 50% discount instead, to be conservative, you are looking at RM2.06

Extracted from Annual Report. Lol

RM1 coming

I like free cash flows

From CIMB estimates

FCF
2018: 9.18m
2019: 0.16m
2021: 26.74m
2022: 31.90m

massive FCF growth in 2021 onwards. forward P/FCF is below 15x.