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2019-11-27 13:48 | Report Abuse
it's getting closed to that i believe.
if i'm not wrong, latest ROIC is at 18%
2019-11-27 11:49 | Report Abuse
it's not far fetched to predict this company can produce annual FCF of 500-600mil (>10% of current market cap)
2019-11-27 11:33 | Report Abuse
but i do have to take note of what Ricky pointed out.
the competitive landscape surrounding the industry.
and the ability to scale up.
2019-11-27 11:25 | Report Abuse
if the company is growing 20% over the next few years, it's fair to pay PE 13x (though note that i didn't pay 13x, i believe its a fair valuation. my cost is at single digit PE)
whether it's a great long term investment, i'm not sure.
it's not my core holdings anyway.
2019-11-27 10:44 | Report Abuse
This company is a cash generating machine. Incredible cash flows.
2019-11-27 08:59 | Report Abuse
From QR report:
The Board expects the ongoing construction of SPE, River of Life beautification packages, the toll
revenue and the sales of completed properties units will continue to contribute positively to the
Group's turnover and profitability in the current financial year. The Company is working closely
with the Government on various infrastructure projects which has been proposed to the
Government. In addition, the Company is also working together with the local partners in Sabah
and Sarawak to tender and secure construction contracts directly from the Government. The
Board is hopeful that the Company is able to secure some of these projects
2019-11-26 16:40 | Report Abuse
if you take heed of what mr.market does, i fear for your mental heath.
last week, HLIND drop to 9.70. within 2 days, mr.market "valued" it at 10.48
within a week, the company valuation changed by 250mil
2019-11-26 16:28 | Report Abuse
Even in Malaysia, there's plenty of stocks giving earnings yield above 10% v. government bonds yield of 3%+
it's a no brainer to be continue invested in equities
2019-11-25 17:32 | Report Abuse
AJI is looking tasty.
i crave for more
2019-11-25 14:28 | Report Abuse
focus on the business fundamentals and not be guided by movement in share prices
unless the market is telling you something you didn't know. most of the times it's just noise.
2019-11-25 14:25 | Report Abuse
i will continue to hold TGUAN
Stock: [TGUAN]: THONG GUAN INDUSTRIES BHD
Nov 21, 2019 11:34 AM | Report Abuse
average PE multiple is around 12x
CIMB ascribed a PE of 13x for packaging sector
i believe 40sen earnings is achievable in 2020
estimated valuation = 12 x 0.40 = RM4.80
plus net cash 0.31sen
TP = RM5.11
2019-11-25 14:17 | Report Abuse
it's up to you to take advantage of the mispricing, unless you agreed with mr.market
2019-11-24 10:53 | Report Abuse
management has always been shareholder friendly. even in "bad times" they still do ROE of 15%
and consistently declaring dividends
2019-11-24 10:49 | Report Abuse
management, as always, have been very conservative in it's profit guidance but i believe the furniture industry, as a whole, is witnessing a positive structural change driven by trade diversion
a price advantage for Malaysian furniture exporters
if you look at past results, Liihen has recorded 4 consecutive profit growth (above 40% y-o-y growth for 3 quarters and 1 quarter >100%).
book value has consistently growing each quarter, from 1.20 in Sep'15. That's 16 quarters of consecutive growth in book value
net cash position has increased to 68sen (22% of market cap)
they used to declare 22sen dividend in 2015 and 20sen in 2016
current year profit will exceed those earned in 2015 and 2016, i believe we will see at least 20sen dividend again soon
2019-11-24 10:42 | Report Abuse
should be looking at a minimum RM4
ROE >20%, ROIC>40%
this stock should be valued at least 2x BV (=RM4.02 based on latest BV 2.02)
earnings wise, not far fetched to project at least 9x min PER on annualised EPS of 42sen
(0.42*9 + net cash 0.68) = RM4.50
earnings yield is whopping 25% (6 times more than risk free rate)
free cash flows is growing. latest cash yield is 14%
it's not unreasonable to say this stock should be valued at the higher end of PE range for furniture stocks, i.e. 10x, for its quality earnings growth and strong balance sheet
2019-11-22 21:37 | Report Abuse
above my expectations. i was expecting 10sen EPS.
Liihen on track to achieve record earnings, back to its heydays in 2016-2017
annualised EPS is around 42sen
2019-11-21 16:55 | Report Abuse
good opportunity to collect at lower price. i remember similar situation last year when HLIND removed from Syariah compliant list.
2019-11-21 14:00 | Report Abuse
Icon is very aggressive
But it's a good time to make money and to be rich.
2019-11-21 11:36 | Report Abuse
YiStock has in depth analysis on TGUAN
maybe he can share some of his insights
2019-11-21 11:34 | Report Abuse
average PE multiple is around 12x
CIMB ascribed a PE of 13x for packaging sector
i believe 40sen earnings is achievable in 2020
estimated valuation = 12 x 0.40 = RM4.80
plus net cash 0.31sen
TP = RM5.11
2019-11-20 20:48 | Report Abuse
Profit margin expanded to 6%
Annualised ROE 11% (>10%)
Annualised ROIC 18% (even better >15%)
Earnings yield 15.93%
PER 7.8x
Ex cash PER 7x
2019-11-20 17:14 | Report Abuse
Teo Seng just reported a good set of results
2019-11-20 15:12 | Report Abuse
Next year EPS should normalise, back to growth trajectory.
CIMB TP 3.65:
We maintain our Add call with a higher TP of RM3.65 (12.3x CY21F P/E) as we roll over
our valuation year to end-2020F. We continue to like YSP for: i) its attractive valuation of
9.6x CY21 P/E (22% discount to its 5-year historical mean of 12.3x), ii) its net cash
position of RM47.7m (as at end-3Q19), and iii) the inelastic demand for drugs. Potential
re-rating catalysts are stronger-than-expected sales locally and regionally. Downside
risks to our call: decline in sales volume and continued losses in its Vietnam operations.
2019-11-20 15:10 | Report Abuse
It's good news for YSP too.
From CIMB report:
We expect YSP to record stronger 4Q19 results, in tandem with higher drug demand
from government medical facilities. This is premised on: i) 4Q being a seasonally stronger
period, and ii) government facilities increasing drug orders with its suppliers due to earlier
concerns of a disruption to medical supply on expectations that the government would
not renew Pharmaniaga’s concession agreement (CA) to provide logistics and distribution
services for drugs under approved product purchase list (APPL). It has since been
announced that Pharmaniaga has obtained two extensions for services under the CA
2019-11-19 16:18 | Report Abuse
too illiquid to my liking
in situation like this, shareholders interest tend to be not taken care of. in other words, ignored
2019-11-19 12:03 | Report Abuse
there is also opportunity for arbitrage
i'm eagerly awaiting AliBaba new listing in HK
2019-11-13 17:33 | Report Abuse
i am hoping for a 20sen dividend
2019-11-13 15:17 | Report Abuse
if u have a longer term view, this stock is worth at least RM2
At current price, you have above 30% margin of safety
2019-11-13 11:08 | Report Abuse
Icon, Alliance is impacted (loan loss provisions) due to their huge exposures to London Biscuits
2019-11-13 11:04 | Report Abuse
heath care is resilient. it's less impacted by trade war or economic cylicality and more influenced by secular growth
2019-11-12 09:52 | Report Abuse
Have you heard of REGRESSION TO THE MEAN?
over time, business fundamentals would eventually revert to their mean
Posted by stockraider > Nov 3, 2019 1:01 PM | Report Abuse
What 3iii says is correctloh....but the devil is in its details implementation loh....!!
If u buy into very overvalue stock like Nestle, Dlady and Petdag with sometime PE even exceeding 50x, how could u expect outperformance leh ?
In order to make very big monies, u need to buy into earning recovering on a very battered down undervalue stock that give u both upside in share price upgrade in undervalue rerating plus strong earnings rerating in earnings recovery loh.....!!
Armada is a clear example here loh....!!
2019-11-11 16:35 | Report Abuse
1Q results should be out within this week
2019-11-11 16:18 | Report Abuse
Book Value BV Growth
Q319 10.97 3.98%
2018 10.55 8.99%
2017 9.68 9.26%
2016 8.86 9.52%
2015 8.09 11.43%
2014 7.26
P/BV FV
Y1 10.9746 2.0 21.95
2.1 23.05
2.2 24.14
2.3 25.24
2.4 26.34
2.5 27.44
Assume to grow at GDP 4.5%
P/BV FV
Y2 11.4685 2.0 22.94
2.1 24.08
2.2 25.23
2.3 26.38
2.4 27.52
2.5 28.67
Y3 11.9845 P/BV FV
2.0 23.97
2.1 25.17
2.2 26.37
2.3 27.56
2.4 28.76
2.5 29.96
Possible range of FV depending on P/BV multiple
P/BV = market psychology
2019-11-07 17:36 | Report Abuse
Very stable performance. ROE remains good at 13%.
2019-11-07 15:43 | Report Abuse
Let’s get the expectations right. In investing for assets play, you MAY or MAY NOT enjoy the benefits of realization of its hidden value. The MAY NOT is the risk of value trap. On the other hand, in the MAY scenario (of which no one knows when), you will win big (because of the narrowing of huge discount between price and value), and that big win will provide a very good average return (despite of many years of no return). Hence, in employing investing strategy based on assets, to minimize your duration risk (since we do not know when the catalyst emerge or will it ever crystalize), it is better to have a diversified portfolio.
2019-11-07 13:32 | Report Abuse
The nature of their earnings, being an investment holding, tend to be erratic or lumpy
Their investments in inari alone, if to be realised, is far exceeded the entire company enterprise value
when the risk reward profile is so favourable, i see very little risk in investing in Insas. a case of limited downside, huge upside
3iii Return on Assets 3.59
Return on Equity 4.83
Return on Total Capital 2.26
Return on Invested Capital 4.46
2019-11-06 16:47 | Report Abuse
even at very conservative growth assumptions of 1-3%, HLI is worth at least RM15
2019-11-03 09:12 | Report Abuse
The only way to create value is to distribute the excess cash to shareholders.
2019-10-31 22:08 | Report Abuse
perhaps i have too much faith in our economy so much so that i wallop all the big banks
bought CIMB, Maybank, Hong Leong and Public Bank at the beginning of the month. lol
2019-10-30 21:42 | Report Abuse
No need to crack your head. Other Banks may face possibility of asset quality erosion but not Public Bank.
I bought at 19.10. During bad times, capital flight to quality.
2019-10-30 17:25 | Report Abuse
No one interested in Kawan? It's creeping up nicely
2019-10-30 13:57 | Report Abuse
ROE of 9%-10%. we should be looking at min 1x book value.
BV projected at RM6 per share.
TP is RM6.
2019-10-24 22:31 | Report Abuse
Let's say 50% discount instead, to be conservative, you are looking at RM2.06
2019-10-24 22:21 | Report Abuse
Extracted from Annual Report. Lol
2019-10-21 21:14 | Report Abuse
From CIMB estimates
FCF
2018: 9.18m
2019: 0.16m
2021: 26.74m
2022: 31.90m
massive FCF growth in 2021 onwards. forward P/FCF is below 15x.
Blog: Good reads
2019-11-27 13:53 | Report Abuse
i currently reading Factfulness. Had completed the Jared Diamond's trilogy