Fabien _the efficient capital allocator

fabienwks | Joined since 2010-12-10

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Stock

2020-03-09 20:28 | Report Abuse

if it ever drops to RM3. i will prematurely withdraw FD and buy

Stock

2020-03-09 20:26 | Report Abuse

@Rain

i'm on same boat with you too. my cost 1.60

Stock

2020-03-07 19:41 | Report Abuse

given the very low rates today, dividend yielders are good proxies for bond-like securities

News & Blogs

2020-03-06 23:04 | Report Abuse

Li lu is endorsed by Charlie Munger

if he recommended this book, then it's a must-read

Stock

2020-03-06 22:57 | Report Abuse

Ah yes, i went 2 weekends agp. It was quite crowded to be honest. It's pretty packed than i imagined.

Perhaps it was due to Genting members getting one night free stay. im not sure

To put in perspective,
i have to queue 3 hours to have my meal at the restaurant Beauty In the Pot. having said that, there was no queue for Lobster restaurant. haha..

Half sections of the casino was closed down. The other half was damn packed, especially the elders.

99% of the crowd are all locals. i dont think i bumped into any foreigners.

so yeah, it definitely not as quiet or empty as claimed

then again, im not sure if thats the case during weekday


Posted by Outliar > Mar 6, 2020 3:22 PM | Report Abuse

@Fabien Inefficient Capital Allocator,

What happened to your Genting casino report?

Stock

2020-03-04 21:45 | Report Abuse

very easy to conclude in such market sentiment

Flintstones This counter proves got cash and free cash flow does not mean you will make money
04/03/2020 5:43 PM

Stock

2020-03-03 21:34 | Report Abuse

Take a look at this perspective

Texchem market cap is 52million
Latest operating cash flow is 75.6million
Adjusted for capex, free cash flow is RM53mil

One year generation of FCF is equal to the entire market cap

Stock

2020-03-03 21:04 | Report Abuse

at this price, it is a steal

Stock

2020-03-02 22:59 | Report Abuse

Mazda overpriced? Perhaps you are not their targeted segment

Better stick to myvi car.

Stock

2020-03-02 20:55 | Report Abuse

if you think we are in for a prolonged bear market, then what are you doing here?

i see desperate measures to collect at 61sen

Stock

2020-02-29 23:09 | Report Abuse

Liihen

EPS 43.53
earnings growth 37%
revenue growth 4.5%
EBIT margin 12.8%
Profit margin 9.4%
ROE 22.5% (very good)
ROIC 46.5% (very good)
Cash yield (based on 2 years average FCF) 15.3% (very good)
Net cash 0.72sen (25% of market cap)

now let's look at valuation

PE 6.7x (super low)
ex cash PER 5x
P/BV 1.4x
P/FCF 6.5x (super low)
EV/EBIT 3.7x
Earnings yield 27%!!!

DPS to date 15.5sen
Final dividend due to announce in April (based on historical precedent)

Stock

2020-02-29 11:41 | Report Abuse

Icon, have a look at FPI

Stock

2020-02-29 09:47 | Report Abuse

11th consecutive quarterly profit growth. impressive

19.34sen EPS, highest recorded over the last 3 years. 30% y-o-y growth

20x PE is not unreasonable

Stock

2020-02-28 22:25 | Report Abuse

highest earnings ever recorded

EPS 43.53sen!

perhaps special dividend to be announced later

Stock

2020-02-27 20:28 | Report Abuse

4 year average PE at 12x

say, valuation at this historical mean, 38.83 x 12 = RM4.66

and to factor in net cash of 47sen

current PE is cheap

Stock

2020-02-27 20:21 | Report Abuse

quick glance at the P&L would tell u that there is RM50mil operating profit with RM18mil net profit attributable to equity holders

EPS is 2.89sen

earnings would have been higher if not impacted by one off impairment on goodwill, receivables & investment properties.

on the flip side, these impairments/provisions contributed to massive increase in operating cash flow from 34mil to 226mil

Stock

2020-02-26 15:34 | Report Abuse

Bought at 0.69.

At this price, downside is limited. Just need a bit of patience.

Stock

2020-02-26 11:34 | Report Abuse

cashflows have been very good

FCF 27mil this year. cash yield approximately 9% on current market cap

Stock

2020-02-24 20:21 | Report Abuse

net cash 50% of market cap should in theory provides a floor, capping the downside

but well, human sentiment is unpredictable. and we investors are not here to predict human psychology

in less than 2 months time, i will get 11sen dividend

Stock

2020-02-24 20:16 | Report Abuse

what i had is a hardcopy.

but what i can tell, the main difference between CIMB and Kenanga can be attributed to the discount factor to the computed RNAV. it's a matter of perspective really

both came up with RNAV of RM3 though the valuation of individual businesses are different as methodology is different. Kenanga with 30% discount v. CIMB 50%

that's the beauty of investing. valuation is an art.

we can't discount the fact that there are uncertainties, which i have already mentioned. it all depends on how you weight those risks v. benefits

at this price, what does it implies? what are the market expectations ?

that's the hard part that we, as investors, need to find out.

i also had a report by Nomura, which i had obtained from Muhibbah investor relation, with a TP of 2.43 with a 20% discount factor.

Stock
Stock

2020-02-24 19:56 | Report Abuse

Bought a bulk at 1.68 in the morning

FPI is 5th largest holding

Stock

2020-02-21 19:22 | Report Abuse

you can say my statement is incomplete

but DONT u dare to accuse me of malicious intent

ozymandias There is exclusivity clause for Phnom penh and sihanoukville. Please read kenanga report and don't blindly say things.

Stock

2020-02-20 20:27 | Report Abuse

depending on what perspectives you have,

for example, Kenanga TP is RM2.35 while CIMB is RM1.50

but what is certain that sentiment would not improve unless the uncertainty surrounding the airport concession is cleared

Stock

2020-02-20 20:25 | Report Abuse

the key issue is that the concession agreement does not have exclusivity clause. there is a risk of premature ending of the agrement when the new airport is completed.

anyway, right now the immediate concern is the negative impact on tourist arrivals
the lack of chinese tourists are expected to trim 0.5-1% of Cambodia's GDP

Stock

2020-02-20 20:15 | Report Abuse

for hygiene purposes, given the current outbreak, garbage bags should be in great demand

Stock

2020-02-20 20:12 | Report Abuse

what's important is next year profit

coming quarter is less relevant in my view

Stock

2020-02-20 20:06 | Report Abuse

0.9sen is the new norm

annualised 0.36sen. forward PE 20x

Stock

2020-02-18 23:45 | Report Abuse

What makes u think it will grow at MUCH (emphasis) slower pace.

The noise surrounding Boeing 747? or the coronavirus?

Stock

2020-02-18 20:04 | Report Abuse

included Panamy in watchlist

Stock

2020-02-17 21:05 | Report Abuse

1billion market cap

Stock

2020-02-16 11:24 | Report Abuse

i believe the disparity has to do with quality of management. MFCB management is top class. Over the years, they have demonstrated their ability create shareholder value. they are very shareholder oriented.

just check their track record over the past 10 years or so.

Stock

2020-02-15 00:43 | Report Abuse

next weekend i'm going to Genting. just a night stay but definitely will hit the casino.

stay tune...for site visit report

Stock

2020-02-15 00:24 | Report Abuse

Worth RM1.50 at least

Stock

2020-02-13 22:33 | Report Abuse

EPS 40sen @ PE 12x

RM4.80

Stock

2020-02-13 22:31 | Report Abuse

Arbitrage play?


Posted by TheContrarian > Feb 13, 2020 4:46 PM | Report Abuse

MGO definitely trigger. Bought today at 59 sen.

Stock

2020-02-13 22:29 | Report Abuse

better protect your capital and move to a better buy in BAUTO. DY is 6-7%.

Stock

2020-02-13 22:28 | Report Abuse

i'm queuing at 70sen. Hope it gets done.

Stock

2020-02-13 22:25 | Report Abuse

Currently, there is an average order backlog of 7-9 years for Boeing and Airbus aircraft.

Stock

2020-02-13 22:24 | Report Abuse

Airbus Global Market Forecast 2018-2037 report estimates that over the next 20 years, 37,390 new passenger and freight aircraft will be needed. Of these, 10850 are to replace old aircraft and the remaining 26,540 new aircraft to cater for rising demand.

Stock

2020-02-13 19:59 | Report Abuse

the minorities have to seriously reflect why on earth they rejected 2.20

Stock

2020-02-13 19:58 | Report Abuse

the law of mean reversion will bring it back to 1.20

Stock

2020-02-12 22:16 | Report Abuse

Technically TA should be above 0.665 right

else TAGB holders would not swap

Stock

2020-02-12 19:55 | Report Abuse

did i missed the boat?

Stock

2020-02-12 19:54 | Report Abuse

the korean frenzy is back. 4 oscars win.

Stock

2020-02-12 19:48 | Report Abuse

This is a high growth stock in an industry with high barriers of entry. Yet, it is trading at trailing PE of 13x. Not even 15x.

While market is unrealistically valuing, even smallish tech stocks at 50x PE.

Stock

2020-02-12 19:39 | Report Abuse

You are spot on!

Indeed, it is.


https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=100819&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

singh1 Interesting !! Maybe TAE will offer to buyout TAGB.
11/02/2020 10:11 PM

Stock

2020-02-11 22:33 | Report Abuse

any corporate exercise to be announced?

Stock

2020-02-11 22:31 | Report Abuse

thought there's risk arbitrage opportunity here

seems weird that the SCR was rejected by the minorities

or it could be an attempt to push up the share price, never an intention to privatize it

Stock

2020-02-11 20:53 | Report Abuse

Good quarter ahead