basically you are betting on the product price spread. it may not be long term but instead a mid term play

reminiscent of Hengyuan, anyone?

on the bright side, Q1 loss coincides with major tunraround activities

moving forward to Q2 and beyond, with the sharp drop in naphtha prices expected to see good profit2 margin due to product spread expansion

not looking to far ahead to assume the current spread to last for the whole year, its not exaggerating to forecast they will make 400mil net profit, about similar to last year

net cash per share is around 1.77. latest NTA 5.41
assuming EV/EBIDTA of 5 - 6x, fair value around RM2.5-3

why cannot make money from Orient?

the yield itself is at 7%

and when the valuation itself revert to its historical mean

you are easily looking at upside of 30%

there are many ways to diversify your capital.

on top down basis, you have your asset allocations.

from there, zooming in to equities portfolios, you have diversification by sectors. of course, you will have different stocks in different sectors. alternatively, you could choose to invest in conglomerates such as Oriental.

if you are looking for a defensive play, a company that is backed by huge cash pile (80% of market value), plantations lands that are carrying at cost value, hotels, hospitals, etc., you are looking at a real bargain here.

Let's look at some financial metrics.

NTA is at RM11 backed by huge tangible assets.

Dividend yield is at 7% (twice of risk free rate MGS 3.5%).

Cash yield at a whopping 10% (yes, it's a cash generating machine). Implying a Price over FCF of 10x.

EV/EBIT is only 3x, giving you earnings yield of whopping 35%.

Of course, its ROE is low at 5% due to huge cash pile. Looking at a more reliable measure of its capital structure, its ROIC is at 16.5%.

it's a low beta stock, not one for the high risk takers

Oriental, it's probably me. When net cash is >80% of market cap. There aren't much risks i'm not willing to bear at this price.

CCK is a well managed company with good growth prospect.

I like this company and have built a small position.

the way i see it, there is no single moment or best time to buy. the quest to buy at bottom is impossible and foolish.

what is certain is that this is a once a decade opportunity to buy stocks at depressed prices. price is what you pay, value is what you get. and with market selldown with such ferocity in March, a lot of bargains start to emerge.

if you did buy at depressed prices, you should hold on to it dearly. as Charlie Munger used to say "the big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting."

the way i see it, there is no single moment or best time to buy. the quest to buy at bottom is impossible and foolish.

what is certain is that this is a once a decade opportunity to buy stocks at depressed prices. price is what you pay, value is what you get. and with market selldown with such ferocity in March, a lot of bargains start to emerge.

if you did buy at depressed prices, you should hold on to it dearly. as Charlie Munger used to say "the big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting."

when comes to forecasting, i'm more inclined to believe in wisdom of the crowd instead of contrarian view

you are not far from the truth. but at this price, net cash is >80% of market cap.

Happy to know directors are buying. Have their skin in the game, like the rest of us.

Even at this times, Serba is getting 7.7bil project.

wow this company is valued at negative enterprise value

No Philip, i only owned Serba.

Just want to get your thought process in selecting Serba. Thanks.

Hi Philip, mind sharing why you choose Serba over Dialog?

slowly but surely

Previous high is 1.57

Marching on....

Lol laugh die me

Carlsberg is worth RM13. excel sheet investing doesn't work that way.

Sold 0.49

Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" bought 0.415 today
27/03/2020 6:46 PM

Well done, Mr.Ooi

Cash is king if only u have excess cash to deploy during market sell down. Keeping cash on the sideline is not king at all, considering the very low interest yield and erosion from inflation.

more to come, from Kawan

good show today

20% in a day

good show today

Favell Favco market cap (417mil) is above Muhibah's RM366mil

Does it make sense to you?

Unless the market is implying a significant erosion in value from their airport concessions, infrastructure, construction businesses

RM2 can wait. I intend to increase my exposure further (selfish mode on).

bought back Kawan at 0.975

earnings should remain resilient

hng33 profit margin is like what, 3-4%?

you don't get to buy this company at cheap

even with such looming recessionary risks

wah, very long reply from Mabel

my cost is above 1.60 by the way

bought 0.415 today

at this price , given the impending offer of 66sen. i think risk is low even if it's get delayed or worst, aborted.

everyday can see Mabel cheering.

if u dont mind sharing, what is ur average cost in Serba?

Boeing plans 737 MAX production restart by May

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/2020-03-25-story-h1485638539-Boeing_plans_737_MAX_production_restart_by_May.jsp

why are u so fixated on YTLP even though u have no exposure?

have a bit more patience, u will see Jaks at RM1

it's true, any extreme swings would inevitably pull by the force of gravity to its mean. we, as investors, to succeed is to take advantage of this wild swings albeit with a longer term view than the general market.

all the best to you, Mabel

Mabel Wah everyday climb 10 %

How nice...

Meow
24/03/2020 9:03 PM


give chance la...

am still waiting to buy below RM1

by the way, for your information, there are plenty of companies that are cash rich with zero debt. some with cash position more than 50% of market cap

guess you need to look harder dude...

and one more thing, don't let the share price influence your stance so easily

Posted by jackson88 > Mar 22, 2020 6:55 PM | Report Abuse

I am looking to hold for at least 3 years. Looking for any cheap counter that have yield at least 10% now. And must have tons of cash in Bank to Survive. So far, I found this Mah Sing, E&O, Lotte Chemical Titan, Deleum,

Posted by jackson88 > Mar 22, 2020 6:58 PM | Report Abuse

I am hoping to buy at 30sen and then sell RM1.50 in 5yrs time

Posted by jackson88 > Mar 24, 2020 4:03 PM | Report Abuse

I bought yesterday at 31.5sen yesterday (5000 lots). Not sure whether to sell it for a quick profit today ....34.5sen now


can't help myself to pick u up. it's a fascinating insight on human psychology at a given moment

@tew66666

you must be losing a lot of money in YTLPower

Yes Mabel, you do have your own niche investing in restructuring situations. Best of luck to u!

every businesses will in certain degree gets hit, its a matter of how severe is the impact directly or indirectly, as overall consumption will be low.

looking at the question that u asked, i suggest that you stay away from the market.



Posted by RainT > Mar 14, 2020 5:06 PM | Report Abuse

If US wide spread virus

still have high demand for furniture? still have people have mood to shop furniture ?

Mabel, u sure u have invested in great companies at good prices or instead invested in mediocre cum gruesome companies at great prices?

and the price went further down to 52sen.

how is ur conviction now?

i sleep well at night. even though all 38 stocks in portfolio in red.

maybe its Choivo buying

Posted by uptrending > Mar 11, 2020 9:48 PM | Report Abuse

Very strong buyers emerged the last 2 days.. Buyers queued accumulatively 500+ K shares @ 1 buying bit..

damn, so fast rebound one

i just missed out JHM

bought more 2.65

HL target price 4.37

i believe the fair value is around there

bought more 1.56

my 3rd or 4th largest holding

if it ever drops to RM3. i will prematurely withdraw FD and buy