Padini has long been overvalued, too high expectations of growth being pricing in amid unrealistic optimism and driven by investors' GREED.

When the sentiment reverse or when market starts to realise its mistake, eventually the market will "correct its past mistake" by bringing down the valuation to its fair value.

So the question now is what is the fair value for Padini? At current price, is their ample margin of error? is it undervalued?

back in the days, i bought Padini when it was pricing at 5-6x PE with yield 4-5%.

that was the time when u know u have found a hidden gem.

95% of market participants have no clue on what they are buying and absolutely zero knowledge on the value of the business

yes, agreed. excess cash should return to shareholders.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/aa/tong/portfolio

anything is possible in a market crash

fear and pessimism dominates

RM6, 5, 3 or even RM1...who knows..

drop to rm6 i'll be jumping in joy

let's hope it will happen

free fall. no support.

1 sen coming


Posted by mamatede > Dec 12, 2018 03:16 PM | Report Abuse

Whats the next support? RM6?

aiya...bought too soon at 8.99 lol

come below 9 pls..

i'm quietly and patiently waiting below 7.

Jon, please don't write anything more on Petronm. Thanks!

I think what Jay points out are pretty spot on. Time value of money and value trap.

Biggest cost in investing is opportunities cost. It's a huge dent to your overall investment performance.

alamak, drop so little only.

was hoping such news can freak ppl out.

in my watchlist

i have re-read this article few times and printed a copy for reference, thanks Icon...

what sslee did is admirable. the investment community needs people like him, to raise awareness, to keep in check the management has their priority right and aligned to shareholders' interest, to create value situation for shareholders etc.

perhaps,what can be better, given sslee's limitations in certain areas, he can share his draft of questionnaires here...so that people can chip in with comments or share their views.... to improve the quality of questionnaires for it to remain effective. of which sslee actually did that last year prior to Insas AGM..

maybe need to rope in SSLee to grill the Board! lol...

Koon+ Bee + Choi = an awesome team a world champion

My take on the above is the team would not happen and it won't work.

Simple reason being their investment philosophy and thought process is vastly different from each other.

Their brain is wired in a very different way.

"I believe of all the Sifu in i3 the one that will able to discover an awesome stock in it infant stage is none other than Jon. So Jon no need to PLP you only need o use your inborn unique talent and sharp observation to find such stocks for Mr. Koon.

Koon+ Bee + Choi = an awesome team a world champion. I’m looking forward for such a team and would like to be an early investor too if this team somehow can be formed."


I mean no offence, but rather curious to find out your thinking process.

i did read your few writings before, including your comments in insas forum. you do seem to possess some, i would say, "out of the norm" radical suggestions with a tinge of naivety, considering that u r of elder age and with much more life experience.

i am quite surprised and at the same time perplexed.

Alan Nga goes MIA?

It is important knowing what you don't know.

"There are two kinds of people who lose money: those who know nothing and those who know everything." ~ Henry Kaufman

i doubt ricky yeo still holding flbhd....

we all know how Malaysian market works...doesn't matter if its a one time off provision...as long as it impacts the profit number, the share price will collapse...as if it is indeed a drop in operating profit...

on the other hand, if later on due to favourable outcome resulting in write back of the provision...hence increase the profit number...the market dismiss it as it is a one time off write back and doesn;t count as normal operating profit

sad to say, that's how the market perceive as such whether u like it or not...have seen such real situation before...

take this as a pinch of salt.

PE of 10x is too easy way out

but we know at current price, FLB is undervalued with ample of margin of safety in any angle you look at it, be it at Price/FCF, PE (to reflect more accurately, look at PER ex cash to take into account its net cash position) or EV/EBIT

captainjeremysparrow from GeorgeLeong:
In 2015, when logs supply is stable and USD is strong, Focus Lumber made rm31.72 million. For 2018 & 2019, with the key factors mentioned above, if Focus Lumber can make rm30 million in 2018 (Projected Q4 net profit of rm9.61 million, any figure higher than this is a Plus Bonus), based on shares outstanding of 105.50 million shares and a Price-Earnings Multiple of 10 times, Focus Lumber is valued at rm2.90 per share.

Syiok!

assuming zero growth in FCF, you get RM1.88 by paying 10x of its latest financial FCF

assuming zero growth in earnings, you (surprisingly) still get RM1.88 by paying 8.5x (Ben Graham formula) of its latest TTM earnings

and above are very conservative estimates

good results. exceeded my expectations.

continue to hold.

good results.
BV increased to 10.57

as usual, market continues to ignore Orient

exactly, more people getting out.

that's when i'm coming in. hahaha

considering to add more

management has plans to monetize its assets

highway REIT
and now,

For the property segment, Lim said Ekovest’s latest mixed project — EkoCheras — will provide positive contributions to the company going forward. Th e project was launched in 2013 and comprises three residential blocks, one offi ce tower, one hotel and a shopping mall.
Lim said the mall has been well received since its soft opening in September this year, and that
Ekovest expects it to provide a recurring income stream to the group in the future. To date, the
mall has a committed occupancy rate of 85%.
Going forward, Lim said Ekovest is looking into setting up a real estate investment trust in
three to four years once “we think [the shopping mall] is fully tenanted”. “Th e potential revenue coming from the rental of the shopping mall — that is a very good future business for Ekovest,” Lim said.

wah...cheap sales...

Latest NTA 2.34
P/BV 0.37x

being conservative, in theory, the IV should reflect its net assets valuation. but given the bad sentiment, current market cycle, and weak liquidity, 30%-40% discount seems reasonable.

even at 50% discount, u still get 1.17.

market cap is 1.27bil against potential GDV of 46.6bil

plenty of MOS for any "unforced errors", if u willing to take position la...

at current price, carlsberg is overpriced la...

wah....such unexpected results.

those quarter predictions totally out...lol

chicken king...moneysifu....

you, the new fortune teller? price will go up 10.50pm onot?


Posted by Outliar > Nov 26, 2018 10:20 PM | Report Abuse

Yup, tomorrow at 9.00 - 9.27 price will go up, after that until 11.40 will go down, then go up until 3.17 then stay the same until 4.45, then will sharebuyback up again until closing

Jon, noticed u kept asking ppl to put money in FD and China index.

what's ur intention, really? lol..

yes, read it for fun.

i'm hopeful one day, LCTitan get enlisted in the index component.

http://tefd.theedgemarkets.com/2018/TEP/20181126cl51li.pdf


Just an opinion by the Edge Daily.

U can refer to the article "Bursa an attractive hunting ground for privatisation".

Today The Edge mentioned LCTitan as potential privatization.

Analyst target price is always 12 months forward extrapolating recent earnings into the future.

On other hand, the company's intrinsic value rarely change much due to one or two quarters of earnings. Having said that, taking into current market cycle or risk/volatility, you should demand a higher market risk premium in your assumptions to derive the IV.


Alex™ Ask yourself la.... What kind of analyst is this... Overnight qr then fundamental revised from rm18 to rm10? Like that I also know how to be analyst... All horse cannon
24/11/2018 09:14

overconfident or self denial?


Posted by hstha > Nov 23, 2018 12:31 AM | Report Abuse

I don't think it will drop much.The bad QR has been already priced in. That's why the stock price plunged before.

lol...u guys r real entertainers. entertain me during night before i go to sleep.

stock price will go up bcoz of capex...new PPE

laugh die me...

you own the market ah??? so geng, can predict the movement in such detail. so night time will up or down ah????


dalpinia Tomorrow will up may be early morning will drop a bit then noon will up
22/11/2018 19:04

Just hold la...

why went up so much?!!

i haven't buy enough!!!

this guy write up sometimes negative sometimes positive depending on the mood. more volatile than woman period.

if i remember correctly, sensitivity analysis done by RHB points out to positive correlation between Petron earnings and crude oil. crude oil down will affect earnings negatively.

correct me if im wrong.

hope market rerating downwards so i can get it at decent valuation

Teoseng and LTKM reported excellent results.

let's wait on LayHong, bias towards optimism & upsides. lol

Looking back at my previous comments. When FLBHD drops to c.RM1, that was the best chance to buy.


Stock: [FLBHD]: FOCUS LUMBER BHD
May 22, 2018 08:41 PM | Report Abuse

Value trap?

Depending on how u see it.
I see it as Share price of RM1. Net cash per share is 96 sen.
Basically you pay nothing for the business.


Stock: [FLBHD]: FOCUS LUMBER BHD
Jun 10, 2018 01:31 PM | Report Abuse

FLBHD net cash position amounts to 96 sen per share

stripping out the net cash, PE ratio (ex cash) is 1.94 times. Which means you will earn back your initial investment within 2 years at current price.

that's achievable even in the worst case scenario assuming FLBHD only manage to earn 6 sen EPS for the next 2 years.

Price = 1.08
Net cash =0.96
Ex cash = 1.08 - 0.96 = 0.12sen

Anything above 6 sen EPS is a gain to investors.

Actually, buying at current price is already a gain to investors because FLBHD pays 6 sen dividend annually. Any earnings recorded are a bonus.


Stock: [FLBHD]: FOCUS LUMBER BHD
Nov 12, 2018 03:49 PM | Report Abuse

Just trying to gauge a rough estimate of value (syiok sendiri calculation)

Latest net cash position is 88.58mil
5 year average FCF is 15.10mil

Assuming u want to acquire FLBHD now, what is the prospective price
case 1: multiple of 10x its 5 yr average FCF, that will amount to 151.04mil
Total value including net cash = 239.62mil (2.28 per share)

case 2: multiply of 10x its latest reported FCF (10.86mil), that will amount to 108.62mil
Total value including net cash = 197.2mil (1.88 per share)

u will get a range of 1.88 to 2.28 with zero assumption implied for its future FCF growth

any thoughts on the land sales?