In a shock development, Latin American energy giant Brazil announced it will join the OPEC+ group of oil-producing countries, including some of the world’s biggest such as Russia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The consortium works in concert to coordinate and unify petroleum production to secure pricing for the benefit of its members. Brazil, which government data shows pumped 3.5 million barrels per day for October 2023, intends to join OPEC+ during January 2024. In a surprise development, the CEO of Brazil’s national oil company Petrobras announced that Latin America’s largest oil producer will not participate in the consortium's coordinated production caps. This news highlights how much of a risk Brazil’s oil boom and growing hydrocarbon production pose to OPEC+’s ability to control global petroleum prices.

In less than two decades, Brazil went from being a marginal oil producer to the world's ninth largest with the country poised to enter the global top five by the end of the decade. Brazil, which is Latin America’s leading economy, possesses the region’s second-largest oil reserves after neighboring Venezuela. According to the hydrocarbon regulator, the Brazilian National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels or ANP, at the end of 2022 Brazil held proven reserves (1P) of 14.9 billion barrels and proven and possible (2P) reserves of 21.9 billion barrels. The federal government in Brasilia initiated the Potencializa E&P program to expand Brazil’s oil reserves and production. The plan aims to secure investment for the development of marginal as well as frontier oil basins to boost production to 5.4 million barrels per day by 2029, an increase of 54% over October 2023, making Brazil the world's fourth largest oil producer.

The primary contributor to such a substantial hike in petroleum production will be state-controlled Petrobras. Brazil’s national oil company, as part of its 2024 to 2028 Strategic Plan, has budgeted total capital expenditures over that period of $102 billion, which is a 31% or $24 billion increase over the previous 2023 to 2027 strategic plan. Petrobras has earmarked 72% or $73 billion of that budget for spending on exploration and production activities, leading to higher hydrocarbon reserves as well as production. Of that amount, $7.5 billion is earmarked for exploration activities between 2024 and 2028. This will fund the drilling of 50 new wells with 25 planned for Brazil’s Southeast Basins another 16 in the Equatorial Margin and the remainder to be drilled in offshore Colombia.

FPSO Atlanta was 72% complete at end-Oct 2023 and first oil is targeted for mid-CY24F
FPSO Maria Quiteria reached 82% completion at end-Oct 2023
FPSO Agogo reached 41% completion at end-Oct 2023, with first oil targeted for 1QCY26F

Revenue growth via new investments. As at 30th Sept 2023, management has allocated capex of RM606.5m, of which 62% or RM376.6m is allocated for the renewable energy segment. Of this, RM198.5m is for the new 5th turbine and the remaining RM178.1m for the 46.5MW solar farm project in Malaysia under the Corporate Green Power Programme, 11.4MW solar farm project in Maldives and 8.1MW commercial and industrial rooftop solar projects. It has also allocated RM61.1m for remaining works on two new packaging factories and RM95.8m for new production lines. RM74m is budgeted for modern farming covering 772 acres in Perak, which also include a 60MW solar project.

Positive progress on the 5th turbine concession. Management is currently in the final stage of negotiations with Laos’ Electricite Du Laos (EDL), which will see a favourable new concession for the Don Sahong Hydropower plant that includes all the 5 turbines with a combined capacity of 325MW. Announcement of the new concession is expected to be unveiled by 1QFY24. Meanwhile, Energy Availability Factor is expected to stay around 91% in 2024. Completion of the 5th turbine is in time for the wet season, which could see full capacity utilization. Assuming a conservative EAF assumption of 41%, the 5th turbine could generate annualized pre-tax net profit of RM40m for the group. The solar business is expected to contribute revenue of RM14-15m with a net profit of RM3m in FY24.

New food security division. Apart from the 2,560-ha coconut and macadamia plantation in Cambodia, the group is also investing into an established platform in Malaysia that owns 1,300-acre fruit and vegetable farms and distribution channels in Johor and Pahang. Via the platform, they plan to develop modern farming or greenhouse farming for herbs, vegetables and fruits on a 772-acre (allocated 400 acres for modern farming) plot of lowland in Perak. Given the huge capex involved and concerns on heat or high temperature of lowlands in Perak, they have started on a pilot project while in the midst of acquiring the entire landbank in Perak under the MFCB name. Eventually, there are plans to integrate the established platform with the modern farming as it plans to have a bigger stake in the entity. Including nursery, the gestation for vegetable farming is about 30-45 days. To avoid the risk of price fluctuation and middleman costs, MFCB plans to have direct off-takers like supermarkets and hypermarkets. Based on the estimated annual production of 50k mt and average wholesale price of RM6/kg, it could potentially generate revenue of RM200m-300m p.a. or RM500k/acres. The modern farming design is expected to be ready by end-March 2024.

Very likely, they can achieve 30 sen EPS for FY2024
At 10X PE below mean, RM3.00

Simply the supply demand dynamics over the long term. where do u think the trajectory is heading towards? short term, is anyone guess....economic recession, slowing demand, geopolitical risk, ....artificially suppressed prices by US (2024 election coming)....but over the long term..its a fair bet that the supply demand equation is bias towards higher oil price

there is no substitute for crude oil in terms of energy efficiency and density. the fact is, there are many use case especially in transportation where it is impossible to replace oil as fuel of choice. coupled with the fact that transitioning into renewable energy requires more oil needs than ever. you can read the book "How the World Really Works" by Vaclav Smith where u get all the data supporting this fact

The world still have plenty of oil, yet the supply has been very tightened. oil producers have been incentivised enough by markets or governments to incur new capex for explorations. bank financing has been restrictive or non-existent due to ESG concerns. a case in point, take a look at US shale production....long term secular decline. the certainty is the global supply is very very tight and this tilts the balance of risk towards higher oil price

GENP is one of the largest freehold land owner in Peninsular Malaysia (PM) with 16,908 ha, with 61% located in Johor, 18% in Malacca & Negeri Sembilan, 18% in Kedah & Perak, and 3% in Selangor (ie. Sepang). GENP continues to carry these valuable assets at their book values. As these lands were amassed progressively since 1981, and strategically located on highly populated areas of the west coast of PM.

Gaming revenue at Genting Bhd’s Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) in Singapore will grow by another 10% in 2024, buoyed by the growth of a diversified customer base outside of China, according to Fitch Ratings.

In its “Global Gaming Outlook 2024” released on Thursday, the rating agency said that while Singapore is already performing “above expectations” with gaming revenues 15% higher than pre-Covid levels this year, Fitch analysts said that they expect such growth to continue, driven by increasing foreign visitors in 2024.

The report noted that as of October 2023, visitor arrivals to Singapore were still 25% below 2019, primarily due to a slow recovery in the Chinese market.

The agency expects Malaysia — home to Genting Malaysia Bhd’s flagship Resorts World Genting — to enjoy a 9% gross gaming revenue growth next year, driven by a “steady increase in domestic traffic and foreign tourists”.

Long term bullish on oil. Bought Chevron

Yinson basically flat for the year. Some peanut dividends to satisfy you while waiting.

Not entirely accurate picture. The Company utilised their operating cash flows to repay borrowings amounted to RM155mil.


Berlin

For FY2023, Jtiasa spent less than RM30m on dividends but more than RM52m on a directors related asset acquisition which minority shareholders could not vote on. This, after not paying dividends for 3 years from 2019-2021. Who is the BOD looking after?

HLI wishes to inform that the Proposed Disposal of HCB has been completed today. Upon completion, HCB has ceased to be a subsidiary of HLI.



The Proposed Disposal was completed for an Estimated Purchase Price of RM76.13 million.

Net profit almost double, up 97%. Plantation operating profit increased more than 100% with better margins arising from 36% increase in FFB. Overall superb results were slightly dampened by Timber segment returning to the red.

The CPO average selling price is expected to be supported on the back of flattish global supply due to El Nino phenomenon, rising biodiesel demand and its price competitiveness against other edible oils.

The Group will continue to focus on sustainable management of resources and stringent cost control to ensure productivity and profitability.

In view of the above, the Group anticipates satisfactory financial performance for the remaining quarters of the current financial year.

Three quarters' results exceeded last year full year. Annualised EPS 8 sen.
9 months FCF 14sen per share. Expect 3-4 DPS in final quarter.

1) Proposed Construction and Completion of Lumut Maritime Terminal Expansion Project at Mukim Lumut, Manjung, Perak (Phase 2A – Construction of Onshore Infrastructure and Offshore Facilities inclusive Main Open Type Wharf). The total contract value is approximately RM161 million.
2) Provision of Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Commissioning + Installation (EPCC+I) of Light Weight Structure, Duyong Brownfield Modification and Host Tie-In for Gansar Project, around 190 kilometres from Terengganu shore for a total contract value approximately RM318 million

October 2023:
Fresh Fruit Bunches 132,551 metric tonnes
Crude Palm Oil 26,427 metric tonnes
Palm Kernel 6,270 metric tonnes

The group expects the non-renewal of the Asahi agreements to have an annual net profit impact of approximately RM30 million in FY2024.

Very interesting discovery by the Maybank IB team.

16,908 ha freehold land worth more than its mkt cap
GENP is one of the largest freehold land owner in Peninsular Malaysia (PM)
with 16,908 ha, with 61% located in Johor, 18% in Malacca & Negeri
Sembilan, 18% in Kedah & Perak, and 3% in Selangor (ie. Sepang). GENP
continues to carry these valuable assets at their book values. As these
lands were amassed progressively since 1981, and strategically located on
highly populated areas of the west coast of PM, we estimate these freehold
land to be worth MYR7.25b or 1.5x GENP’s current market cap.

Its 10,397 ha Johor land is worth MYR5,656m
GENP has remaining 10,397 ha of freehold land in Johor, of which 2,555 ha
(or 6,311 acres) are located in the Iskandar region, making GENP one of
the largest landowner in Iskandar. GENP has two active township projects
in Johor - at Kulai and Batu Pahat. Since the 1990s, GENP has been
monetising some of its prime estate land via property developments.
Its freehold landbank offers good inflationary hedge
GENP has focused on aggressively growing its oil palm planted area from
48,710 ha in 2003 to 138,301 ha in 2022, translating to a CAGR of 5.4%. As
land values in Malaysia appreciate, most of GENP’s oil palm expansion over
the last two decades shifted to Indonesia. Naturally, the oil palm division
is the larger profit contributor, accounting for 67%-95% of its yearly group
core PBIT over the past 10 years, with the balance contributed by the
property division. In the past, the property division has helped to weather
the earnings of the group during periods of low oil palm profits.

Their losses wiped out whatever profits they earned during the petrochemical upcycle. Dont expect negative CF to sustain dividend payout.

What happened to Shang? share price got beaten even more severely than during pandemic lockdown

Budget 2024: Ceiling prices on chicken and eggs to be removed, allowing prices to float

https://mazda.com.my/vehicles/mazda-mx-30

No one likes LPI anymore? except 3i of course

The proposals will transform the enlarged Ekovest group into a listed public-private-partnership conglomerate in Malaysia, with interests in construction, property development, infrastructure, and plantations

The first proposal involves the proposed merger of the construction businesses of Ekovest and Knusford, whereby Knusford acquires the entire issued share capital of Ekovest
Construction Sdn Bhd - a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ekovest. The purchase consideration
payable by Knusford to Ekovest is proposed to be satisfied via the issuance of new ordinary
shares in Knusford at the proposed issue price of RM0.60 per new Knusford shares.
The Second proposal involves the proposed acquisition by Ekovest of 3 parcels of lands with
approximately 17 acres located in Johor Bahru, which are intended for potential two (2)
Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) along the alignment for the Johor Bahru–Singapore
Rapid Transit System Link. The purchase consideration payable by Ekovest to the vendors of
TOD 2 & TOD 3 is proposed to be satisfied via the combination of cash and the issuance of
new ordinary shares in Ekovest at the proposed issue price of RM0.60 per new Ekovest shares.
The third proposal is the proposed acquisition by Ekovest of at least 51% or more of the
issued share capital of Credence Resources Sdn Bhd (Credence), which presently holds
63.13% equity interest in IWH, which in turn holds 34.29% equity interest in IWCity. The
purchase consideration of payable by Ekovest to the vendors of Credence is proposed to be
satisfied via the issuance of new ordinary shares in Ekovest at the proposed issue price of
RM0.60 per new Ekovest shares.
The fourth proposal is the proposed merger of the properties and assets of IWH and IWCity
under a single entity through the acquisition by IWCity of the entire issued share capital of all
the existing direct subsidiaries of IWH. The purchase consideration payable by IWCity to IWH
is proposed to be satisfied via the issuance of new ordinary shares in IWCity to IWH at
proposed issue price of RM0.80 per new IWCity shares.

– Tan Sri Lim Kang Hoo, in his personal capacity
as a major shareholder of Ekovest Berhad (Ekovest), Knusford Berhad (Knusford),
Iskandar Waterfront Holdings Sdn Bhd (IWH) and Iskandar Waterfront City Berhad
(IWCity), has today served a personal letter of proposals to convey his intention to undertake
a reorganisation, rationalisation and merger proposal involving these companies, for the
consideration of its board of directors. Ekovest owns approximately 62% in PLS Plantation
Berhad (PLS).
His proposal is intended to streamline, reorganise, rationalise and merge the businesses and
assets currently owned and controlled by himself and persons acting in concert, through the
various public listed and non-listed companies, as well as to consolidate his direct
shareholdings in the various companies.
The proposals will enable the enlarged Ekovest group to become one of the listed publicprivate-partnership conglomerates in Malaysia involves in construction, property development,
infrastructure, and plantation.

Yen sinks to 10-month-low after BOJ stresses need to keep easy policy. Positive for BAUTO

MBSB just merged with MIDF. impossible another corporate exercise so soon

More FPSO jobs amidst fewer contractors with proven track record. FPSO contractors would still be in high demand
by clients in the coming year (2024) as Brazil and Africa would still see more contract announcements. Due to the
importance of project execution and funding capability, barrier of entry into FPSO market remains high. YINSON remains
as one of the top FPSO contractors in the world and we believe they remain in very favourable negotiation position with
clients. To note, its top competitors (in terms of track record and trust from the clients) namely SBM and Modec already
have their hands full with 15-20 contracts to be executed, causing competition for new FPSO contracts to be lower than
previous years. Therefore, we believe FPSO contractor with track record and more balance sheet headroom would
benefit from this trend in FPSO industry in the coming years.

Before pandemic, this company was being priced above RM1.20. Fast forward today, they are doing RM1 billion revenue (double of what they used to earn). What do you thing the appropriate FV should be? currently, its just catching up due to severe sentiment priced into the property sector

Oil will hit 100/bbl soon

FY24 projected EPS (sen)

MBB - 33
HL - 30.1
KN - 24.5
MIDF - 27.8
PB - 18.4
RHB - 29
TA - 24.5

Big picture macro themes = food security & inflation + scarcity of farmland/cropland

There were 71,745 vehicles sold in Malaysia in August this year, 13% more than the 63,676 units sold in July, driven by improved supply chain issues and National Day promotional campaigns by some car companies.

According to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), the number of vehicles sold in August this year is also 6% more than the 67,609 it reported a year ago.

Historical plantation PE 17x

Look at this way. you are getting paid 6% every year while waiting. this is cash rich company risk of bankruptcy is low. has dominant market share. stable earnings and cash flows.

Paramount Corp Bhd said it expects to report stronger earnings for the second half ending Dec 31, 2023 (2HFY2023), driven by new launches and ongoing efforts to improve its return on assets.

The group, which recorded property sales of RM617 million in 1HFY2023, has planned property launches worth RM700 million in gross development value for 2HFY2023, on the back of stronger product offerings and recovering demand for home buying. Our earnings recognition and future cash flow will be backed by our unbilled sales of RM1.5 billion for the rest of the year.

Paramount Corporation Bhd aims to launch properties worth RM1 billion by next year as sales momentum continues to be strong for the property industry.

Group chief executive officer and director Jeffrey Chew Sun Teong said the company is optimistic about achieving the sales target given its robust performance during the first half of 2023.

"We need to have a revenue of RM1 billion or more. This means that our property launches will have to be worth more than RM1 billion,” he told reporters after the company’s 1H FY2023 results briefing here today.

@DividendGuy67 The odds of me entering at RM23-24 is low, maybe less than 20% chance.

The odds turned into your favor.

Plantation is at least 1x BV

Hap Seng Consolidated, YTL Power climb on inclusion into FTSE's Asia-Pacific index in September

Coming quarter would be good because of disposal gain. Hope some sweeteners in the form of divvys.

OSK sum of parts min rm2.50
how much holding company discount, up to you

Major shareholder cashing out

Just hold. i have been holding this stock for 5 years. treat it as fixed deposit. you can choose to reinvest the dividends in this company or deploy elsewhere for better returns.

this company has good economics. generate huge cash flows with low capex requirements.

Basically, Tenaga is the proxy to country's energy transition

Any good news?

Totally agreed with the apt description "planting trees on a gold mine". time to unlock value of plantation due to scarcity of lands, food security, etc.

good news?

Selling of Guocera would unlock substantial value to us shareholders