Fabien _the efficient capital allocator

fabienwks | Joined since 2010-12-10

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Stock

2021-07-23 16:54 | Report Abuse

SAM is riding on semiconductor upturn too. Perhaps, its not within anyone's radar either due to

1) perception that its earnings are dominantly derived from its aerospace segment (pre-covid, its almost about 50:50 contribution)

2) Liquidity (hardly any volume as shares tightly held by Temasek)

3) management doesn't bother to talk to any investment analyst


Once the travel industry recovers, a matter of when, you will see both engines running

So its both a recovery play stock and a proxy to semiconductor cyclical upswing

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2021-07-23 16:17 | Report Abuse

10bil market cap within reach

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2021-07-23 16:04 | Report Abuse

Vitrox to join Inari 10billion semiconductor club?

As of now, MPI about 9 bil market cap, Greatec 7.9bil, D&O and UWC 6bil+, Frontken 5bil

JHM small cap is about 1.3bil

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2021-07-23 13:51 | Report Abuse

One is thriving in a structural growth sectors while the other one operates in a sunset industry. Market is not always right, but they tend to get it right over the longer term.

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2021-07-22 17:47 | Report Abuse

All time high quarterly profit.

Wisest move is to position your portfolio riding on long term growth drivers in 5G, e-commerce, IOT, EV, cloud computing etc.

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2021-07-21 16:57 | Report Abuse

Yinson's two live bids..the FPSO PDB likely to be awarded by Oct and Petronas's Limbayong by 3Q21. Aker Energy’s Pecan project will be awarded in 2022

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2021-07-15 15:32 | Report Abuse

Berjaya Corp plans to delist Berjaya Land, sell Berjaya Sports Toto

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2021-07-06 15:04 | Report Abuse

Expect strong 2Q results to drive share price upwards

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2021-07-02 20:10 | Report Abuse

The only local tech in my portfolio is Greatec

For tech exposure, i rather invest in US-listed companies. Tesla, Palantir, Square...these are the potential multi-baggers

I like Chinese tech too...bigger tailwinds compared to the US...Baba, Tencent. Valuations are reasonable 600-700+ billion market cap. They will follow FB soon in the 1 trillion companies

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2021-07-02 19:59 | Report Abuse

Buy companies that have optionality - trait a company has of the ability to evolve and find entirely new ways to grow

Yinson has undergone several transformation in the past...from transport to top FPSO player in the world...and now they are in the phase of transitioning into a RE and technology play

Trust the management proven record and capability to position themselves for new growth

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2021-06-30 19:53 | Report Abuse

Total PBT = 92mil (77% yoy)

of which,
Manufacturing - 15mil (quite in line)
Plantation - 23mil (in line with its average, Malaysian plantation remain a loss due to young age profile)
Bulking - 43mil (quite in line)
Food - 13mil (slightly below)

Overall results consider good - 62mil net profit. Cash flows was amazing - FCF a whopping 116mil

Net cash now 231mil (about 42% of market cap)

Dividend declared 12sen was above my 10sen expectations

Excluding net cash, the valuation is crazy cheap at low single digit PER. NTA 2.92 backed by solid cash.

My view remain the same, best exit strategy is to privatize this company.

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2021-06-22 20:03 | Report Abuse

When CPO at its all time peak, of course you have to overpay if one needs to make any successful acquisition.

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2021-06-17 19:28 | Report Abuse

On board! I love Family Mart so much!

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2021-06-16 21:28 | Report Abuse

Shipping is a high uncertainty industry as the rates are highly cyclical. You have to understand the basic dynamics first.

It takes 3-4 years to build a ship. When rates are high, companies rush to build ships. By the time the ships are build, all these ships get delivered at the same time and those rates collapse. Companies have no choice but to send their ships for scrap to earn some money. So the size of the fleet goes down at the time when the rates are low. And as the fleet size goes down it sets up the conditions for the rates to go up.

And then when the capacity goes down, and the rates goes up, you cannot bring in capacity as it takes 3 years to build the ship.

So the only thing that can happen is for the price to go exponential.

Now that prices are trending up. We also know that supply is limited as new ships would only arrive 3 years in the future. What about the demand side?

1) Global economies are in the midst of re-opening, on track for a V-shaped recovery
2) Unleash of pent-up demand to further boast for demand for commodities
3) Massive massive infrastructure stimulus by the economic powerhouse, China and US, further boost the demand for commodities. we are talking about more than 2 trillion of stimulus here by both countries

Limited supply coupled with explosive demand. What do you think is in play here?

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2021-06-15 20:13 | Report Abuse

It's highly illiquid. shares tightly held by Temasek. otherwise, i think this company is worth at least 2 billion

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2021-06-15 20:10 | Report Abuse

Looks like market does not take well with the acquisition.

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2021-06-12 19:57 | Report Abuse

I can buy AliBaba for less than 25x PE

News & Blogs

2021-06-12 19:50 | Report Abuse

Conservatively, we should be looking at average charter rates of USD20,000. Though very likely Q4 would see even higher rates, the unleash of pent-up demand as more economies re-open coupled with supply chain disruptions.

Increments from higher charter rates will translate into pure profit as their costs are largely fixed.

Investors should not mislead by looking at the Baltic Dry Index alone, as it comprises various classes of dry bulk carriers with different supply demand dynamics. You are right to highlight the impact of Capsize (about 40% weight) to the overall index decline.

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2021-06-09 19:27 | Report Abuse

I miss this one out. what a big miss!

Any party interested to takeover Kumpulan Fima? Privatization?

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2021-06-08 19:47 | Report Abuse

Peugeot in the bag now, as a 55% subsidiary

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bcorp-divests-51-stake-berjaya-auto-alliance

BAuto said it had acquired an additional 35% stake in BAASB from BCorp for a cash consideration of RM4.58 million or at RM1.09 per BAASB share.

Following the acquisition, BAuto’s stake in BAASB has increased from 20% to 55% and BAASB is now a subsidiary of BAuto.

The company said the acquisition — funded entirely via internally-generated funds — represents an opportunity for BAuto to acquire a strategic controlling stake in BAASB which holds the distributorship of renowned Peugeot marque vehicles in Malaysia and facilitate the consolidation of BAASB’s results into the BAuto Group.

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2021-06-02 19:41 | Report Abuse

Brent crude at $71/bbl

Hedge your bets against i) rising inflationary pressures, ii) US dollar weakness (due to widening deficits and non-stop money printing. just take a look at Biden's budget proposal. the excess money supply is mind-blowing!)

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2021-05-27 20:22 | Report Abuse

AmInvest so bullish tp10.60 on my long term holding!

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2021-05-27 20:00 | Report Abuse

100% earnings growth on track. you will see.

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2021-05-27 19:59 | Report Abuse

Good results. Back to back quarterly profit of more than 130mil

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2021-05-04 20:08 | Report Abuse

From JP Morgan:

Lotte Chemical Titan Overweight
Price Target (Dec-22): RM5.50
80%+ Potential upside at current levels, as we upgrade our FY21E/22E earnings by 2.5-3x;
Reiterate OW

Lotte Titan reported its best quarterly earnings since listing in 2017 with “recurring” earnings coming in at RM424 million vs JPM’s 1Q21 estimate of RM210 million, >100% better than expected. We expect a similarly strong 2Q21, but expect some normalization into 2H21 (from super-normal level spreads today). However, we do expect spreads to remain healthy into 2H21 & 2022 as we upgrade ‘22E PE/PP spreads to $600-675 per ton (vs $530-630 per ton earlier) vs $710-850 per ton currently, a $110-175 per ton discount to current spreads. We upgrade our FY21E/22E net earnings by ~2.5-3x as we raise our Dec-22 PT to RM5.5 (from RM4), for 84% potential upside.

Moreover, our price target implies 1x P/B multiple with ~70% of the company's current market cap in cash

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2021-04-29 19:35 | Report Abuse

Aluminium spot is hovering steady at 2,400 per tonne. Every 100/tonne rise will increase PMetal earnings by 13-20% annually. With capacity to expand by 40% in 2H 2021, everything falls nicely for record earnings easily >100% y-o-y. Forward PE is below 30x.

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2021-04-29 19:28 | Report Abuse

CIMB just revised the TP to 3.95. But this valuation does not include the cash set aside for the Indonesia petrochemical project which will add another 1.57 per share.

The spread for April and May has even widened vis-a-vis Q1 21. Though management has guided slightly lower Q2 profit err on conservatism due to lower sales volume.

If maintain as per current quarter. 1bil profit for the year is within reach?

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2021-04-15 12:46 | Report Abuse

Green evolution, both copper and aluminium has plenty of upsides to go

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2021-04-05 19:50 | Report Abuse

Solar, semiconductor, energy storage and life science

Nice spot, don't you think?

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2021-04-02 20:03 | Report Abuse

Interesting times indeed, if VT really letting go and let Jalil fully taking over the ship.

Let's wait and see what are the grand plans to unlock value for shareholders. Jalil's mandate also involves improving investor relations. This conglomerate structure is too messy to be of interest!

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2021-04-02 20:00 | Report Abuse

Biden's 2.25 trillion infrastructure plan will further boost demand for commodities especially green metal such as aluminum to meet his green energy goals.

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2021-04-01 19:44 | Report Abuse

As i said, hold your horses. Worth your money to be a little patience

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2021-03-30 16:20 | Report Abuse

Hold your horses

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2021-03-25 20:00 | Report Abuse

There ought to be some concerns, to be honest. The company is almost 80% owned by the controlling shareholder. If they choose so, they can afford not to give a damn to us.

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2021-03-25 17:30 | Report Abuse

I wonder what is their game plan. The company has kept buying back shares for several years now from the lows to the high.

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2021-03-24 16:30 | Report Abuse

HLI doesn't even maintain active investor relations department

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2021-03-17 14:41 | Report Abuse

Sold some @ 1.20

Ride the rest

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2021-03-15 12:51 | Report Abuse

5 year plan to ramp up RE exposure to 8,300MW by 2025

a good bet on energy transition, along with YINSON

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2021-03-12 19:17 | Report Abuse

These listed companies win the bid for LSS4 project

Among the identified listed companies that have been awarded the projects include:

Advancecon Holdings Bhd via Advancecon Solar Sdn Bhd at 26MW
Three bids by Solarvest Holdings Bhd via Atlantic Blue Sdn Bhd totalling 50MW
MK Land Holdings Bhd via MK Land Resources Sdn Bhd at 10.95MW
Tan Chong Motor Holdings Bhd through a consortium involving Tan Chong Motor Assemblies Sdn Bhd at 20MW
JAKS Resources Bhd via JAKS Solar Power Sdn Bhd at 50MW
Kumpulan Powernet Bhd with Perbadanan Kemajuan Negeri Pahang at 50MW
Ranhill Utilities Bhd at 50MW
Gopeng Bhd at 50MW
Tenaga Nasional Bhd via TNB Renewables Sdn Bhd at 50MW, and
Uzma Bhd via Uzma Environergy Sdn Bhd at 50MW.

The commissioning of the project will be in late 2022 or early 2023.

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2021-03-12 14:32 | Report Abuse

management does'nt care one bit of enhancing the share price

the only reason to have this stock in one's portfolio is for defensive posture, FD-like or bond substitutes. it's consistent churning of FCF you can bet the dividend paying ability is sustainable for a long run

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2021-03-11 19:47 | Report Abuse

"Serba Dinamik's presence in oil and gas will continue and the space economy will come in as another core revenue contributor to the group. Serba Dinamik will grow bigger and stronger with this new division that will ensure sustainability of the group."

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2021-03-11 11:14 | Report Abuse

At least in the immediate term, FV is 3.50

Hold tight

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2021-03-06 19:22 | Report Abuse

@Multibagger it's almost zero chance to fight agaisnt Tan Sri

ever wonder why there is not a single analyst covers this stock? why there is not active investor relations? even a glance at their quarterly report, the transparency of information is lacking, to the extend that the commentary on future prospect was merely an exercise to fill in the blanks

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2021-03-06 19:16 | Report Abuse

Last month was a bargain buy. Energy stocks a good hedge against rising bond yields!

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2021-02-26 19:38 | Report Abuse

Very good results indeed

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2021-02-25 15:11 | Report Abuse

yield curves are steepening....this benefits the financial sector

and with vaccinations, re-opening of economies, again the banks are the best proxy for eventual recovery

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2021-02-25 15:11 | Report Abuse

yield curves are steepening....this benefits the financial sector

and with vaccinations, re-opening of economies, again the banks are the best proxy for eventual recovery