dragonslayer,

Then we will have so many questions to ask:

1) If the house is so good for investment, why must the developer sell it to you, they better keep all houses and rent them to people. And why the banks lend you money to buy the house, banks should buy the houses and rent them out.

2) If the stock investment could give good return, why must the banks give you margin loans, they better buy the stocks instead of give you margin account.

And I believe there will be more investment banks revise up their target prices for SAPNRG within one or two weeks time.

Anyway, you have your right to ask any question.

I have my right to respond or not to respond to you too.

HLG gives target of 0.41,
AmInvest gives target of 0.50,

Let us take the average = 0.455,

I was told the targets given by investment banks is actually meaning "One Year Target",

If we expect 8% return per year from stock investment,

Then SAPNRG should be moving to 0.455/1.08 = 0.42 very soon.

leek

If SAPNRG is now 0.50, the WA fair value is 0.264, apply the same 16% discount, the market price might be 0.84*0.264 = 0.222.

spinninglotus

Refer to what I wrote this morning,

SAPNRG is now at 0.37, the WA fair value is 0.167, the market price is 0.14, discount of 16%.

If SAPNRG is now 0.70, the WA fair value is 0.438, apply the same 16% discount, the market price might be 0.84*0.438 = 0.368.

Refer to what I calculated this morning,

For every 2 cents up or down of SAPNRG, the WA by right should move 1.4 cents accordingly.

Look at this morning session, SAPNRG went up 2 cents, but the WA move 2.5 cents.

How to explain this?

1) The market might have realized that the WA was much cheaper than its fair value.
2) The fund managers who managed investment money for other people, may want to buy SAPNRG in big amount for their funds very soon, so before they buy heavily, they will get their mistress to buy WA first for quick profit.

The fair value of SAPNRG-WA for different mother share prices:

1) SAPNRG = 0.300, WA = 0.118
2) SAPNRG = 0.320, WA = 0.132
3) SAPNRG = 0.340, WA = 0.146
4) SAPNRG = 0.360, WA = 0.160
5) SAPNRG = 0.380, WA = 0.175
6) SAPNRG = 0.400, WA = 0.189

The above are valid for today only.

Veron_teo

Abusive will not help at all,

What's wrong with the topic?

The calculation is to determine whether to buy mother share or WA.

The two guys Mr Black and Mr Scholes are both Nobel prize winners.

Newplayer286

Fair Value 0.145 against market price of 0.11,

Very Good already.

speakup.

1) It will expire in 2026, big premium for long time, it is OK.
2) Cold Eyes said the mother share will go up many folds.

I bought SAPNRG

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/197801.jsp

I Bought SAPNRG-WA.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/197801.jsp

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/03/07/bank-negara-may-lower-rate-in-july/

The government has no other choice, must reduce the interest rate.

NAIM / DAYANG / PERDANA will enjoy the benefit of reducing interest rate as all of them are heavy in debts.

NAIM is also meeting KYY golden rules, and it is much cheaper.

Q4-18 EPS 17.42
Q3-18 EPS 12.8
Q2-18 EPS 3.87
Q1-18 EPS -6.79

The above EPS include contribution from DAYANG and PERDANA, and they are divided by the number of shares before the right issue.

If they are to be divided by the enlarged total shares, they become

Q4-18 EPS 8.24
Q3-18 EPS 6.06
Q2-18 EPS 1.83
Q1-18 EPS -3.21

If again we exclude contribution from DAYANG and PERDANA, they become

Q4-18 EPS 2.90
Q3-18 EPS 3.36
Q2-18 EPS -0.42
Q1-18 EPS -0.77

And one good news for Q4-18, there were 10.1m fair value write down, the EPS would have been 4.90 sen if without the write down.

So, NAIM is actually doing quite well and improve on property and construction.

Say we are conservative and assume NAIM can maintain EPS of 3 sen per quarter on their business excluding DAYANG and PERDANA, meaning 12 sen per year.

Let us give PE of 5 for that, That value would be 60 sen.

NAIM's total shares after right issue is 500,743,322 (excluding treasury shares)
NAIM own 254,921,952 shares of DAYANG
NAIM own 76,986,429 shares of PERDANA

254,921,952 / 500,743,322 = 0.50
76,986,429 / 500,743,322 = 0.15

Therefore the formula for NAIM fair price
= 0.60 + 0.50*DAYANG + 0.15*PERDANA
= 0.60 + 0.50*1.58 + 0.15*0.29
= 1.43

You can input any other prices for DAYANG and PERDANA to get different fair price for NAIM.

bc8660,

Q4-18 EPS 17.42
Q3-18 EPS 12.8
Q2-18 EPS 3.87
Q1-18 EPS -6.79

The above EPS include contribution from DAYANG and PERDANA, and they are divided by the number of shares before the right issue.

If they are to be divided by the enlarged total shares, they become

Q4-18 EPS 8.24
Q3-18 EPS 6.06
Q2-18 EPS 1.83
Q1-18 EPS -3.21

If again we exclude contribution from DAYANG and PERDANA, they become

Q4-18 EPS 2.90
Q3-18 EPS 3.36
Q2-18 EPS -0.42
Q1-18 EPS -0.77

And one good news for Q4-18, there were 10.1m fair value write down, the EPS would have been 4.90 sen if without the write down.

So, NAIM is actually doing quite well and improve on property and construction.

Say we are conservative and assume NAIM can maintain EPS of 3 sen per quarter on their business excluding DAYANG and PERDANA, meaning 12 sen per year.

Let us give PE of 5 for that, That value would be 60 sen.

NAIM's total shares after right issue is 500,743,322 (excluding treasury shares)
NAIM own 254,921,952 shares of DAYANG
NAIM own 76,986,429 shares of PERDANA

254,921,952 / 500,743,322 = 0.50
76,986,429 / 500,743,322 = 0.15

Therefore the formula for NAIM fair price
= 0.60 + 0.50*DAYANG + 0.15*PERDANA
= 0.60 + 0.50*1.58 + 0.15*0.29
= 1.43

You can input any other prices for DAYANG and PERDANA to get different fair price for NAIM.

Uncle might suddenly tell you that NAIM is much better after Dayang has gone upso much, NAIM also meet the criteria of 2 quarters' Law and PE less tahan 10 times.

Remember what the PNB auntie said?

She said their portfolio's net value have dropped so much in 2018.

They have to do something, may be good thing from Petronas for SAPNRG.

You think ASB is sohai? They must have plan for SAPNRG, else they would not have subscribed so much extra shares from the right issue.

When ASB buy, we just close eye and buy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJls_RgTniw&index=4&list=PL4108D90CA93915EB

I Learn from that Mat Salleh and made my own spreadsheet.

BuahCiku,

You can get the calculator from bursamalaysia.com, or from other website.

But as I said, the method is there, but what value to be input is more important.

Look at the last 90 trading days data, the volatility was around 80%,

If you believe that for the next 5 years, JAKS's Volatility will be the same so high at 80%,

You can input this 80% into the calculator, then the fair value of JAKS-WB are:

1) 0.249 if mother share at 0.400
2) 0.169 if mother share at 0.300

The method is there for you to use,

But the most important things are the inputs, you have to decide:

1) The Future Volatility of 35% is it OK? Need to increase or reduce a bit?
2) Future Return of 8% is it OK? May be 6% or 10%?
3) Dividend Yield of 0%? Is it OK?

ks55

Input required, assuming Mother share's
1）Future Volatility = 35%
2) Future Return = 8% per year
3) Dividend Yield = 0%

Using Binomial Method to calculate WB's fair value:
1) 0.109 if mother is 0.400
2) 0.057 if mother is 0.300

The above is valid for the time being.

If you like this company, better buy JAKS (0.445), dun buy JAKS-WB (0.215).

When JAKS at 0.445, fair value of JAKS-WB is only 0.140.

I myself will buy JAKS-WB only when it drop to 0.100, giving a discount of 0.040 from fair value of 0.140.

What for buy a company warrant that is not giving you a good discount from its fair value?

Bought some at 0.94 this morning for speculating purpose.

qqq3, I said the 600 is excluding maintenance fees and etc, so that I can compare with the FundMyHome scheme.

That is not the main point, my main point is I believe there is nobody want to pay you 45K at the end of the 5 years, to take over the opportunity / risk from you.

He could make money if eventually the valuation of the house is more than 285K (Investor take 240K, and 45K go to Buyer)

Look at FundMyHome from another angle.

Example,
One young man has 60K in bank earning 4.5% interest,
He wants to rent an apartment for 5 years, say 600 per month + costs,
He will withdraw money from bank for the rental,
5 years later, his bank balance will be 35K.

Now, he find one in FundMyHome, price is 300K,
He needs to pay 60K and can enjoy 5 years accommodation,
For some reason, he confirm that he does not want the apartment 5 years later,
So he could get back more than 60K, or less than that, or get back nothing.

He is kind of person that does not like uncertainty,
He walks into the developer office,
he propose to the boss,
Can they sign another / additional agreement,
Regardless what will be the market value 5 years later,
He just wants to get back 45K, let the developer earn more with some risk.
That 45K is already greater than the bank balance if he rents apartment some where else.

Now, I ask you people,

Will the developer agreeable to his request?

My opinion is:

No developer will agree to this additional agreement, the reason is simple, that apartment is not worth 300K now, and most probably the buyer will not get back 45K.

If there is any developer or anybody else agree to pay you 45K and take the risk on behalf of you, quickly take up the scheme.

At the end of the first 5 years, if the buyer decide to continue for another 5 years FMH, he has to top-up to match the 20% of the new valuation, this one I can understand. But will the existing / new investors get another 5% per year, or total 25% payment? If so, who pay for it?

Any scheme is suitable only for certain group of people.

And this scheme is for first time house buyer only, targeting the young one which currently earning low pay but probably have great chance to earn much higher pay in 5 years time.

If you are already 40 years old and now earn 2500, it is less likely that you will earn much higher 5 years later.

relaks,

Let say your son has just started working as an executive and earn 2500 a month. He wanted to buy a house of 300K, the bank will ask him to fly kite if he apply for a loan.

Now, you can afford to give him 60K, so he joint the FundMyHome scheme.

For the next 5 years, he stay in the new house for free, may be also rent out one or two rooms, and that meaning he can save more.

By end of the 5 years period, he could be already a senior executive earning 5000 a month.

Anyway, I am not encouraging anybody for this scheme.

qqq3, They can fine tune the structure for different type of houses, for example:

1) Type A: Buyer get free stay, Investor get 5.0%
2) Type B: Buyer get free stay plus 0.5%, Investor get 4.5%
3) Type C: Buyer get free stay plus 1.0%, Investor get 4.0%

For the first 5 years,
The investor enjoy 5% return (assume 5% fixed for all type of houses)
The buyer enjoy the right to stay or rent out.


If you are really interested to be the investor, my opinion is to select the property with big freehold land, the bigger the better, go for detached, semi-D, and forget about the high rise condo or apartment.

If you are really interested to be the buyer, my opinion is to select the property with small shared leasehold land, the smaller the better, go for very high condo and apartment, and forget about the landed property.

I did not find anything saying the developer is the one paying out 5*12K=60K to Investor. But logical guessing, as they stand in the 3rd order to receive the sale proceeds, most probably they are the one who pay.

Some points to correct/answer the Author's doubt

The sale proceeds go in the following order (use the example in the chart):

1) 240K to Investor
2) 60K to Buyer
3) 60K to Developer
4) Share 80% and 20% to Investor and Buyer

To answer why the Developer has the right to receive 60K from the sale proceeds?

My guess is the Developer is the party who pay 12K (5% of 240K) per year to Investor for the 5 years period.

And why the Developer is in the 3rd order to receive the sale proceed (not the 1st as said by the Author)?

That is to ensure that the developer would not over price the house in the first place, you see if they over price the house, most probably they will not get anything from the sale proceeds anyway, and lose the 60K they pay to the Investor over the 5 years period.

No worry, no market making is not a big problem, just wait for cash settlement.

You can call CIMB and diao them. Or you complain to Bursa that the Issuer CIMB does not do the market making as required by the rules.

Yesterday Closing
TENAGA = 15.48
C44 = 0.075

TENAGA's Dividend of 30.27 sen was ex-dated today.

Today Closing
TENAGA = 15.50, meaning up 15.50 + 0.3027 - 15.48 = 0.32, or 32 sen
C44 = 0.075, No change

According to my calculation using binomial method, C44 by right should have gone up by a 3.5 sen to 11.0 sen.

I think something wrong with CIMB market making.

If you are an interested party, please highlight it to CIMB.

Where got 1T debt, officially still 725B only.

http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=statistic_nsdp

How come not yet announce Quarter report ?

Jack Ma, Exactly.

GE15 may be coming soon.

I watched youtube and found that he shook in average one guest in 2 seconds.

55000/1800=30.5 hours.

*I am currently don't own ...

I sold all my MALAKOF.

Najib is much better than Mahathir and his cronies.

I vote for Najib.

Look like PH is going to win, and the king of crony will benefit most, I bought some at 0.88 today.

From now onward, all deals with TENAGA will be much easier and with much better term.

If BN win, most stocks will fly including this counter.
If PH win, most stocks will go Holland, but may be except this counter.

Yes, I have already bought some C44.

Instead of I list it out the C44 fair value for different mother share price, it is better for you to get a calculator from website and do your own calculation, there are many calculator available there.

The parameters that you need to input:

1) Mother share volatility, I put it 8.10%.

2) Interest, this is actually the ezxpected return rate of mother share, I put it 7.74%.

3) Dividend Yield, 0% for C39 to C43, as there will be no dividend before their expiry, and 3.63% for C44 as there is one 44 sen dividend before expiry, which is 0.44/15.86/0.76 years.

Why did you compare the REIT's yield against the ytd KLCI's gain?

Isn't it more logical to compare with KLCI's one year gain, i.e. from End April 2017 until now, which is 6.77%.

Another thing, is the REIT's yield of 6.85% net of the 10% tax?

Also don't forget, if you buy blue chips of KLCI, you get another around 3.2% dividend net of tax.

GENTING is at 9.04 now,

The fair value for:
1) WA = 1.27
2) C46 = 0.03
3) C47 = 0.02

Trade at your own risk.

You must understand one thing before you trade CW, i.e. learn to calculate the CW's fair value.

There are methods to calculate the fair value, all produce quite similar fair value.

These methods are not created by cats or dogs, but they were recognized as one of the 17 great formulas that changed the course of human history.

I do understand the principle of these calculations.

CIMB is the most reasonable issuers, I do not even want to look at those CW issued by others.

I would summarize as follows:

1) For CW issued by CIMB, you buy low and sell higher or you can keep until cash settlement.

2) For CW issued by others, you buy high and sell higher, do not keep long.