If GENTING = 9.79 is fair, then WA's fair value is 2.58.

Then, by trial and error, if WA = 1.67 is fair, then GENTING's fair value is 8.64.

So? Between GENTING and WA, which market price is fair?

Please learn to calculate the fair value of GENTING-WA.

1) Interest Rate: This is the expected mother share future gain (annualised), assume it is 6%.

2) Volatility: This is the future volatility, but then how do we know what is the future volatility? So just assume equal to the previous 90 days volatility, it is 19.49%.

3) Dividwnd Yield: 0.87%.


Then use any option calculator, you will find the fair value of GENTING-WA is RM2.53.

I guess selling of the mother shares converted from LA, today volume so far is 3.4m only, less than the converted 4.6m shares. They sell mother and buy back LA? So the gap is narrowing?

BornToSpeculate,

IOIPG looks attractive:

1) Low PE.
2) Reasonable DY.
3) High NAB over Price.
4) Big Cap, meaning safer.
5) Owner is super rich, not likely to swindle company money.
6) Singapore side, recent good measure by Singapore Government on property.
7) Malaysian side, IOIPG is a township developer, meaning land cost is cheap, high profit margin.
8) Recent bull run on many property counters, but so far IOIPG did not go up so much.


Bad thing:

1) May be there will be selling pressure when the new right issue shares listed.

Sorry, should not discuss too much on IOIPG here, wrong place.

If LA go back to around 1.20 and far behind mother share, I will go in again.

Anyway, still my advice is, at current pricing, LA is still the best choice among the three of them, just that I am not interested in any of them now.

Good luck.

Take some time to digest the 4.66m shares converted from LA.

Haha...Shouldn't have sold it.

Thanks, I hope so.

Sold all LA at RM1.24.

Tomorrow first batch of 4.66m mother shares converted from LA will be listed.

Dun know if they will sell mother buy LA again, then go for another round of conversion.

pineapple123, OK, same to you, good luck and hope we both make some money.

Of course, say before any announcement of good news, the mother share go up sky high again, possible again the LA lag behind mother share by 10-15 sen.

pineapple123, Hahaha...Name only gambler, but I am quite careful. There is less risk for LA, at worst case, you will get back 1.06 in average including the coupon interest.

What I know, in case of corporate action like takeover and privatization, the offer for mother share and LA will be the same price. If really LA is to be offered less than mother share, you still have time to convert to mother share.

My advice is to sell off your mother share and WB, then go for LA.

You may be thinking that WB can give you more profit in term percentage, but then the risk is very high too.

Base on binomial valuation, if mother share at RM1.28 is fair, then LA fair value is RM1.35 and WB fair value is RM0.39.

Anyway, trade at your own risk.

Bought back LA at RM1.19.

bowman, can you put the link here? So that we can read it.

BornToSpeculate, CBIP has not gained so much in price, can go and study this company, they plan to and in actual did plant 2000 ha per year oil palm in Indonesia, the rate of planting is quite high compare to CBIP market cap is only RM1.1Billion.

pikacat, no point to convert WA to mother share, because the conversion price is RM1.00, you might as well sell your WA and buy mother share.

I guess the news (good things) will be announced and confirmed very soon. Malaysia's typical reaction, high volume and go up on speculation, down when it is confirmed, no matter how good the news is.

I myself dun know how to time the market, so if the brokers revise up their target in coming weeks which will maintain the gap between the blue and red lines, then it is OK, otherwise I assume that KLCI is going to U-turn.

coldinvestor, I started monitoring from end of October 2014, I dun have those brokers's target before that.

Thumbs up

Look at my chart, you can see that our brokers started to revise up their targets slowly but consistently since early October 2016 until today, but KLCI was still going down from early October until the lowest point around X'mas time, but then the KLCI rebound very fast after X'mas, very much faster than the brokers's revision of targets.

I will monitor, if the broker firms revise up their price targets next few weeks, then it is still not so bad. If not much revision done soon, then better be careful.

The KLCI's 12 months rolling dividend is about 54 points, the dividend yield is 54 / 1745=3.1%, not 4% or 5%.

I worry when the news come out, that is the time mother and sons will all go down, cant wait for many days.

Sold all my LA at 1.29

Solo, go and ask for the form and details from

Registrar's Name and Contact:
SHAREWORKS SDN BHD
No. 2-1, Jalan Sri Hartamas 8 Sri Hartamas 50480 KualaLumpur
Tel:03 62011120
Fax:03 62013121

WB from 0.535 to 0.70, that is 31% upside.

Then why not go for LA?

LA from 1.23 to 1.70, that is 38% upside.

Some more, if anything wrong or bad, the worst case for LA is to go back to 1.00.

I am just wondering, why MALTON went up a few sen everyday instead of one time of limit up? The syndicate want to escape from BURSA questioning/investigation?

Let me explain in this way, say we buy LA at RM1.20.

We imagine that there are 2 parts:

Part 1 is RM1.00 bond, which give us 6 sen coupon rate, so the return of this part is 6% per year, quite good isn't it?

Part 2 is RM0.20, kind of a warrant, this part again split into part 2a (25/55=45%) and 2b (30/55=55%), part 2a expire soon end of June 2017 and part 2b expire end of June 2018.

Using my binomial method, the fair value is RM0.38 for part 2a and RM0.45 for part 2b, sum up the fair value is (25*0.38+30*0.45)/55=RM0.42.

JamesPond, you are right. That was why I went in again, and let say privatize or take over, once they fix the price, the LA holder will have plenty of time to convert to mother share, so basically by that time both mother and LA will have same value.

I bought back LA at RM1.20, because the difference between MALTON and LA is more than 10 sen, take some risk.

MirageHotelPD, Yes, I placed 1.14*404 twice, I wish you make money from 1.14 onward.

Onglai88, I actually have no confidence in MALTON, I bought LA at RM1.03 because the worst case is I collect 6% coupon rate and wait for cash redemption, that give a return of 3.34% p.a. to me. But now I sold it at RM1.14, already earn much better. I think if MALTON could went up from RM0.665 to RM1.20 within 2 months plus, it could also go down below RM1.00, nobody know?

I bought LA last week, and sold all this afternoon at RM1.14. Bye..

JamesPond, Me too think that RM1.75 is too high, that is why I bought LA instead of WB. Target is for reference only.

JamesPond，The RM1.75 target was given by RHB, not something pluck from sky.

Bruce88, you can right click the image and select "Save image as.".

Now when MALTON and MALTON-LA are at RM1.15 and RM1.06 respectively, it is better to buy MALTON-LA. Using binomial method, if MALTON at RM1.15 is fair, then MALTON-LA's fair value is RM1.24, which is 17% higher than market price of RM1.06.

Input required to the option calculator.
1) DY=0%, No dividend since many many years ago.
2) Interest Rate=6%, I normally put 6%~8% for good and big blue chip companies.
3) Volatility=82%, get from last 90 trading days.

a. Fair value for WB is RM0.0277.
b. Fair value for WC is RM0.0735.

But I think investing in this mother share will not get average 6% return p.a., so what if we change this Interest Rate to negative 10%, we get:

a. Fair value for WB is RM0.0216.
b. Fair value for WC is RM0.0584.

Actually I dont know how much the Interest Rate to be input to the calculator for this company, it all depend on the quality of the company/management.

At first I read BKAWAN's boss bought 9.5M shares of BKAWAN on 14.12.2016 at the price of RM17.57, then later I read FELDA sold 10M of BKAWAN on the same day, no mention of the price. So most probably FELDA sold directly 9.5M shares to BKAWAN's boss, and the money (around RM176M) is for part of High Eagle purchase? Dont know who else bought the other 0.5M shares.

第六行，“这里该放未来两个月的平均Volatility”，改为“这里该放未来两个星期的平均Volatility”

第五行，“因为Underlying是下个月结算的期货”，改为“因为Underlying是这个月结算的期货”

我看的方法是：

1）找Long的月份，红点低过红虚线，所以12月和1月的红点都是比红虚线低约1点多，可是我觉得12月就快要到期了，所以选1月来Long。

2）找Short的月份，红点高过红虚线，所以选6月份的。

以上的选择就形成了Long Spread FKLI-JAN17 JUN17。

哈哈。。我是一个懒惰的人，所以只玩FKLI，不想多忙在FCPO。

Dont trust Not-So-Rich families.

目前只玩Spread，因为风险比较低，而且看起来我的方法行得通。

不能放在同一帖，因为相隔一个星期的时间呀。

我的一张spread是9.54*2=19.08，不好意思，让你误会了。