https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2020/08/09/print-more-money-rather-than-borrow-putrajaya-urged/

Print more money rather than borrow, Putrajaya urged.


As at 31st May 2020,

Stocks = 35%
Cash = 65%

If the printing is so much that cause 30% inflation,

Stocks will go up 35%*30%=10.5%,
Cash remain the same,

NAV will go up 10.5% only,

But the KLCI will go up 30%.

No fund should keep so much cash.

JohnDough,

In general, high risk high return, provided you estimate/calculate the risk correctly.

I give an example:

Two house owners wanted to renovate their house, they call contractors to quote.

Let assume all the contractors are experienced, good in cost estimation.

1) House A:
The renovation is indoor, 100% confirm the cost will be 200K.

2) House B:
The renovation is at outdoor, depending on weather condition, the cost could be 50% chance at 150K and 50% chance at 250K, the average is 200K.

I can tell you, that most contractors will quote lower price for House A, say 240K, and higher price for House B, say 260K.

The same apply to stock investment, but as I said the problem is most people calculate the risk wrongly.

Dear Evelyn11,

Come on, did I attack ICAP when I said ICAP perform so so only?

NAV's CAGR was so far 7.78%,
Price's CAGR was so far 4.89%,

Do you know that KLCI's Dividend Yield is around 4% now?
I have no accurate record of KLCI's DY for the previous years,
But I think most of the time the DY should be between 3 to 4%

Therefore, the total CAGR for investing in KLCI's index counters is about 3.73+3.50 = 7.23%,
The difference between 7.78% and 7.23% is just only 0.55%,
Is it very wrong to say "perform so so"?

When I saw ICAP was trading at big discount to its NAV,
I bought it hoping for its liquidation in year 2020,
When I realized that it was not going to happen soon,
I sold them all on 28th May at RM2.07, just enough for break even.

You all can say ICAP is for long term investment, no problem.
If one day, the discount is growing even bigger,
I may buy it again for speculation.

How to compare ICAP’s NAV, Price with KLCI.

On 20th Oct 2005 (from its website)
NAV = 0.99
Price = 1.03
KLCI = 911.69

On 5th August 2020
NAV = 2.86
Price = 1.99
KLCI = 1568.13

ICAP dividend:
Amount = 0.095, subject to 25% tax
Payment Date: 7th Oct 2013
ICAP Price on 11th Oct 2013 = 2.33 (from its website)

Assume reinvesting the dividend for extra units,
Also assume the investor income tax rate is zero, meaning the 25% tax will be returned
Total holding will increase by 0.095/2.33 = 4.08%,

From 20th Oct 2005 to 5th Aug 2020, that is 14.79 years.

Now we calculate the Compound Annual Growth Rate:
For NAV = (2.86*1.048/0.99)^(1/14.79)-1= 7.78%
For Price = (1.99*1.048/1.03)^(1/14.79)-1= 4.89%
For KLCI = (1568.13/911.69)^(1/14.79)-1= 3.73%

However, if we invest into KLCI’s 30 index counters, we receive dividend.
So, I think ICAP so far perform so so only.

Treasury shares:
1) Cancel:
It means the company is healthy, not short of cash.
2) Give to Shareholder:
It is kind of mini bonus issue, wasting administration work, creating odd lot, I don't like.
3) Sell back to market:
It is kind of private placement, get additional cash for development.

The latest total planted area as mentioned in the Result Update is 13502 ha.

The cost of planting including access and land clearing is about RM16000 per ha, excluding land cost of about RM500 per ha.

So the value of that 32000 ha = 13502*16000 + 32000*500 = RM232m,
or 232m/496m = RM0.47 per share.

Pob1234,

No more 86000 Ha, as they sold some of it,
They now have only 32000 Ha.

Look at what they have reported on Total Planted Area
1) 2012: 1700 Ha
2) 2013: 4400 Ha
3) 2014: 6070 Ha
4) 2015: 7348 Ha
5) 2016: 9399 Ha
6) 2017: 11574 Ha
7) 2018: 12700 Ha
8) 2019: 13441 Ha

From the above information, we can guess the age profile of the trees, and I estimate the FFB production is about to increase very much by percentage year on year, also meaning that the plantation become cost effective and profitable.

With 13441 Ha are now planted, there are still 18559 Ha vacant land.
However, I am not sure how much of the 18559 Ha is plantable.

Knownfact,

SBB - Share Buy Back.

There will be RM40m cash for aggressive SBB from now, after selling off an asset to Kossan.

greedy44444，

I just busy body only, I can't even remember when was the last time I bought any individual stock's call warrant.

For 2 reasons:
1) Gearing too low,
2) Individual stock's volatility is much higher compare to index, therefore when the issuer mark-up from the historical volatility, the implied volatility for the market making price would be very high.

KeongLim139,

I just busy body only, I can't even remember when was the last time I bought any individual stock's call warrant.

For 2 reasons:
1) Gearing too low,
2) Individual stock's volatility is much higher compare to index, therefore when the issuer mark-up from the historical volatility, the implied volatility for the market making price would be very high.

iPlay,

I do not want to buy any of them, so no recommendation.
See my post, there are two set of results:
1) Common Practice
2) My Preference
You can go through and choose those that:
1) The fair value is higher than the market price, or
2) At least the fair value are not very much lower than the market prices.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-06-28-story-h1509626058-TOPGLOV_Call_Warrants.jsp

I busy body to calculate the fair value of TopGlov call warrants.

ahhuat56,

Base on latest price 2.02 and NAV of 2.85, inclusive of the one off dividend of 9.5 cent.

1) The CAGR for NAV is around 7.9%,
2) The CAGR for price is around 5.5%,
3) The CAGR for KLCI is around 3.6%,

However, we should add about 3.5% dividend yield for KLCI, meaning KLCI's CAGR is 3.6%+3.5%=7.1%.

So I would say ICAP performed poorly since its inception.

Quincy,

During the said 7 years,
It was -12% against -3.3%,
However, if you invest in 30 index counter of KLCI,
You would have received 3 to 4% dividend per year,
So, ICAP was actually performed worse than KLCI for that duration.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-05-31-story-h1507924158-GPACKET_WB_a_Big_Frog.jsp

The fair values of GPACKET-WB are ranging from RM0.095 to RM0.640, very much depending on the inputs.

Gancel, Impossible to buy at RM11.30 today, may be you key-in to buy at RM11.30 but done at RM11.26.

What I did was I key-in to buy at RM11.50 between 4.45pm and 4.50pm, and it was done at RM11.26.

From my record, the Price / NAV was less than 80% when the amendment was made / passed. I just don't understand why did those unit holders agree with the amendment?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-05-24-story-h1507830782-ICAP_My_Mistake_Liquidation_may_not_even_happen_in_2025.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-05-24-story-h1507830782-ICAP_My_Mistake_Liquidation_may_not_even_happen_in_2025.jsp

stockraider,

I want liquidation,
but look like it may only happen in 2025,
Just don't understand why 98.71% vote for the resolution.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=2703196

The special resolution was passed at 98.71%

enigmatic, many thanks to you.

哈哈。。。
大大的榴莲从树上掉下来。
今天Maybank公布了股息的除权日是4月10日。

P是KLCI，
P fair#1/#2/#3/#4就是3月/4月/6月/9月的FKLI，
当计算P fair#1，那么股息和天数就是P和P fair#1之间的股息和天数。

当然formula也可以是P fair#2 = P fair#1 （ 1 + i*n/365 ）- D，
那当然股息和天数也只拿两者之间的。

P fair = P （ 1 + i ）- D

你漏掉那个t，

由于时间才几个月，可以把它简化为：

P fair = P （ 1 + i*n/365 ）- D,

n是多少天。

1) 1304.0-1292.5=11.5, 1297.5-1290.5=7.0

2) 1297.5和1290.5的合理价，请参考文中开头的link，Page 117，Equation 1

刚刚在3.50点和4.00点（平均3.90点）全部套利了。

我希望他在4月除权，毕竟去年3月27日，现在又刚好才换政府，拖3个工作日就是4月了。

看Page 117的Equation 1，

http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/3297/1/Price_Efficiency_of_Stock_Index_Futures_Contracts.pdf?fbclid=IwAR33AZMGYPcBSmLZMjAt-Nia6YJqQVcqjbaqCRIPBRqHDFoQUlyFgpzhLSY

这目标价是net of “ddividend”的，更正为dividend

200steps “Binomialf”方法更正为“Binomial”

The coming Q4 2019's result should be improving as the FFB increase but the price not yet up,

The real good will be the Q1 2020 as the FFB production and price both increase.

CBIP did disclose the plantation and milling revenue in the quarterly results

I find that the revenue for 2nd Qtr 2019 shot up like rocket, then again shot up even higher in the 3rd Qtr 2019.

However, the reports did not say the increasing revenue is due to which of the followings:

1) Increasing FFB production, or
2) The new palm oil mill that may operate with mainly external FFB, or
3) Mix of the above two.

CBIP so far did not disclose any statistics on FFB production.

My the above estimation is based on nos of ha planted in the year and total ha planted by end of the year, this information is available in the annual reports from Year 2013 to 2018.

No. Because no information is available.

However, it is not so important, if say the production is lower by 20% across the board, the 110,627mT for 2019 and 458,387mT for 2028 will both be reduced by 20% anyway.

We can expect revenue from the plantation segment is shooting through the roof.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-01-26-story-h1482930285-CBIP_The_Plantation_Production_Revenue_will_Explode_and_Shoot_through_t.jsp

Give up this company, sold all my VC-PA at 0.03 just now.

I update VC-PA fair value calculation, this time also include VC-WB.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-01-19-story-h1482841067.jsp

I just can not understand these people,

I saw some one bought VC-WB at 0.035 just now,

Why not he buy VC-PA instead of VC-WB which is also available at 0.035.

VC-WB exercise price is 0.15, and VC-PA exercise price is cheaper at 0.10,

Some more VC-PA has another option on conversion, i.e. 3PA to 1 VC.

Crazy people.

May be that Singaporean wants to kick out the big boss.

The big boss shares under pledged account, but that Singaporean's shares are not.

And that Singaporean has a lot of VC-PA, once he convert his PA into VC, he will be the biggest shareholder.

hehehehe....

If you look at the top 30 shareholders, more than 40% of the company shares are parked under pledged share accounts, they have to fight back if dont want banks to force sell their shares.

So fighting from both sides.

Knowing that the big boss's shares are parked under pledged shares account, some one might want to kick him out.

Goreng down the share price to trigger force sell is one of the possible ways.

I bought some more VC-PA at 0.035 this morning.

Albert1962,

May be those got the new 760,000 share will sell VC and buy back again 2,280,000 VC-PA.

Anyway, the VC trading volume is very high compare to the new share, I think it should not affect the VC price.

Latest news from Bursa,

There will be 760000 VC to be listed tomorrow, converted from VC-PA.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3015987

Buy VC-PA lah.

If VC-PA is at 0.05 or lower, people will convert by 3*PA=1*VC, the company will not receive cash.

If no cash, the company can not buy the broker firm and any other expansion.

So, if you buy VC-PA now at 0.04, very likely you can keep and wait for the boss to goreng it to at least 0.05, you will have 25% profit.

fl888,

Correct,

You can convert VC-PA to VC mother share by choosing one of the following 2 formulas:
1) 3*PA to 1*VC
2) 1*PA + 0.10 Cash to 1*PA

That is why I said the prices of VC and VC-PA are miss matched, and this situation will not be sustainable.

James Ng,

VC-PA should not be left out when you talk about VC.