As I said, VC and VC-PA prices are miss matched,

There must be a lot of people,
1) Who already owned VC-PA,
2) And also a lot of people will rush in to buy VC-PA,

Then many of these people will convert VC-PA into VC mother share,

What will they do if the prices are still miss matched when they get their mother share?

Of course they will sell their mother share and buy back VC-PA again, and will go for another round of conversion!

So, will the "price miss matched" sustained?

Of course I have bought some VC-PA before I wrote about VC-PA fair value calculation, unless I mentioned clearly in the article that I did not buy any.

Aiyo......

The prices of VC-PA and VC mother share are very much miss matched, simply does not make sense.

It is either VC is too much being goreng up or VC-PA is too much being goreng down.

That is why in my fair value calculation for VC-PA, I input VC=0.12.

And even VC at 0.12, the fair value of VC-PA is 0.0667,

So, buy VC-PA instead of VC mother share, or do not buy any of VC or VC-PA at all.

之前我在Cell K2放=IF(I2<0.10,I2/3,I2-$B$6)/B$7是疏忽，得到错误的合理价0.0640，改正后为=IF(I2<0.15,I2/3,I2-$B$6)/B$7，才得到正确的合理价为0.0667。注明：K2的formula是要copy去整个Column K的。

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-01-12-story-h1482126082.jsp

Aiya, yesterday I bought at 0.065 and sold on the same day at the same price.

犯了严重错误，没有注意到SERBADK早前有股票拆细和红股，所以计算Volatility时算错了，请看改正后的新帖。

有网友善意提醒。。。
所以今天早上就排着-5.0要平仓，刚刚做完了，
扣除交易费/税，净赚1.2608点，或每张赚RM63.04，赚点小钱也好，
如果它再涨回去-3.0，可能再卖。

以上的文件是有本地大学的讲师所发表的。。。

参考那个Equation （1），P fair = P （ 1 + i ）- D

D是Dividend，所以是零，因为正月没有任何的股息除权。

他们说 i 应该是financing rate，以目前马来西亚的现状，应该是4%吧，

P就当着是12月的FKLI的市价=1612

那么P fair或正月的FKLI的合理价 = 1612 （ 1 + 0.04 / 12）- 0 = 1617.4，

所以FKLI Dec/Jan Spread 的合理价 = 1612 - 1617.4 = -5.4点

而今早我说的合理价是-4.85点，我还比较保守呢！

http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/3297/1/Price_Efficiency_of_Stock_Index_Futures_Contracts.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0FH0kVbVOKUuWzZpkJSNHFgGwHrVP2TQJcoreeQnOaJh2e8IZrNkYsslQ

刚刚在RM0.07卖完C7T了，期货FKLI也即刻平仓了。

gbk5566,

我不曾这样研究过，
我一切以当前的股息除权的数据和利率而去计算它们的合理价，
目前我是假设明年的股息除权和今年相同，
得到以下的预测股息除权：
1）正月：没有任何股息除权
2）二月：股息除权约5.08点
3）三月：股息除权约10.33点
4）四月：股息除权约6.84点
5）五月：股息除权约2.67点
6）六月：股息除权约3.82点

要注意：
1）PBBANK于2019年3月5日除权37分的股息，我预测2020年它很有可能提早在2月除权。
2）MAYBANK于2019年5月7日除权32分股息，我预测2020年它很有可能提早在4月除权。

我没有办法解释为什么它们有可能提早，感觉而已。

改正

。。。而它的寿命只sheng剩下4个月。。。

是只剩下

改正

。。。因为去年第4季时AXIATA的16.6亿亏损和TENAGA的1.3亿亏损将从计算里退场。。。

是1.3亿，不是1.3

5354_

What I can think of, one of the following,

1) Some people are very sure that the company will get big job / profit soon.
2) The market players are just stupid, simply goreng.

Hahaha...OK..OK..

Input interest rate and volatility at 4% and 32%,

Then trial and error the mother share price, until I get WA's fair value of 0.125,

The correct mother share price is 0.395.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/230904.jsp

14th March:
Mother share and WA were RM0.340 and RM0.110, so I bought WA,

17th March:
I write a comment that we should consider to take profit.

18th October:
Mother share and WA are now RM0.270 and RM0.125, what a surprise!

In another word, at the moment when the mother share is at RM0.270, I will only buy WA if the market price is much below than the fair value of RM0.055.

以今天母股是1.68，而WB已经涨到0.390，应该套利了啦。。

明天财政预算案，股市可能大起，也可能大跌，横摆的几率应该比较小。手上有大量C7O的朋友，可以选择抛空期货来做对冲，最好的比例是1张FKLI配78000股C7O，大起大跌都有钱赚，当然谁也说不定，如果股市不动如山，那就会亏一点钱。。。。

你蛮Resourceful的，能找到如此的资料。

我是估算10月将会有约5.02点的除权，然后从中算出SEP/OCT Spread的合理价，至于Bloomberg是怎样算，我不清楚。

目前CIMB的股息除权日还没有确定在在哪个月，看来应该在10月，以此计算，是应该买在-0.5点，不过9月只剩下几天而已，如果你的水钱不便宜的话，那就不要。

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/226012.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/226012.jsp

我是说这个：

你先明白以下：

1）A先生有很多现金，看好市场，他想投资股票，他有两个选择，
1.1）拿钱去买股票，
1.2）拿一点钱去Long期货FKLI，剩下的钱拿去赚利息。

2）B先生只有一些钱，也看好市场，他也想投资股票，他也有两个选择，
2.1）利用Margin/借钱去买股票，
2.2）拿一点钱去Long期货FKLI。

3）C先生有很多蓝筹股，看坏市场，他想卖掉股票，他有两个选择，
3.1）把全部股票卖掉，
3.2）Short期货FKLI。

以下的因素影响他们如何做决定：
1）买股票能领取多少股息？
2）把钱存在银行能赚到多少利息？
3）借钱买股票需要付出多少利息？

借钱和存钱的利息全年都是不会变动，除非国家银行加/减息，
所以关键是在股息，未来的股息大家只能猜猜而已，或者当着是和往年一样。

The KLIBOR (Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate) is the average interest rate at which term deposits are offered between prime banks in the Malaysian ...

我不明白你说的KLIBOR Index Point？

最上面的一段，做改正。。“其余136做在0.065，共。。”

现在已经是7.0点，可惜我太早卖掉。。。

1.在另外一个贴已经解释如何算FKLI的合理价，算到八月FKLI的合理价，再算九月FKLI的合理价，那么把八月的减九月的，就是那个Spread的合理价了，八月和九月的合理价会因为KLCI上下而波动，但是上就一起上，跌就一起跌，所以Spread的合理价就不变。

2.市价就是八月的市价减九月的市价。

1.要算九月的股息造成多少点的调整，就要预测九月里有什么公司会有股息除权，可以参考往年的股息记录。先要知道每个指数股在综合指数里的比重，不必很准的，去FBMKLCI-EA这只ETF的公告就可以算到了。

不明白你说的“是一直往上走的？”

你先明白以下：

1）A先生有很多现金，看好市场，他想投资股票，他有两个选择，
1.1）拿钱去买股票，
1.2）拿一点钱去Long期货FKLI，剩下的钱拿去赚利息。

2）B先生只有一些钱，也看好市场，他也想投资股票，他也有两个选择，
2.1）利用Margin/借钱去买股票，
2.2）拿一点钱去Long期货FKLI。

3）C先生有很多蓝筹股，看坏市场，他想卖掉股票，他有两个选择，
3.1）把全部股票卖掉，
3.2）Short期货FKLI。

以下的因素影响他们如何做决定：
1）买股票能领取多少股息？
2）把钱存在银行能赚到多少利息？
3）借钱买股票需要付出多少利息？

借钱和存钱的利息全年都是不会变动，除非国家银行加/减息，
所以关键是在股息，未来的股息大家只能猜猜而已，或者当着是和往年一样。

可以啊，请问。。

当然，如果明天股市涨回去，那么将会打回原形。

如果上个星期五，我们不偏向看好，也不偏向看淡，

就在0.025买了400000股C7F，然后抛空6张FKLI，

那么今天的结果是：

1）C7F这部分，亏了0.005*400000 = 2000

2）FKLI这部分，赚了6*50*15 = 4500

不错嘛！

Will Anwar Ever Become PM?

The answer is : Very Unlikely.

RainT,

How did you get 2.5%?

Interim and Final Dividend were 2.0 sen and 2.9 sen,

DY = (2.0+2.9) / 80 = 6.1%.

No harm waiting if the dividend is good.

NAIM drop 9 cents now, DAYANG should drop 2 times 9 cents, i.e. 18 cents accordingly once it open at 10am.

In general,

Company Share Buy back = Company Pay Out Dividend,

Both will reduce cash in the company.

Just ignore those minor differences.

One minor difference is Company Share Buy Back will make the EPS Growth look better, when compare to Company Pay Out Cash Dividend.

1) Cash flowing out from the company.
Both dividend payment and share buy back will cause a certain amount of cash flowing out.


2) Let say you own 1% of that company, your ownership will become 1.11% after a 10% share buy back. You can sell that extra 0.11% ownership in open market.

Company Share Buy Back + Sell part of your share = Company pay dividend


3) Let say the company pay dividend, and you use that amount of money to buy more share.

Company pay dividend + You buy more share = Company Share Buy Back.

The company has announced the final dividend of 2.9 sen, a bit disappointed, why couldn't they just make it to 3.0 sen? May be because of the land purchase. Anyway, with the interim dividend of 2.0 sen, the dividend yield of higher than 6% is good for investment.

As he was selling at 0.31, my guess is the price will be trading in the range of 0.20 to 0.40 for quite some long time, very unlikely to go up beyond 0.40,

I bought at 0.365, sold at 0.355,

Now thinking of buying back....

vivabursa

As a property developer, TAMBUN has to replenish their land bank, this is part of the game, or else how to continue building houses?

No worry about the holding cost, as the land value will appreciate from time to time, due to inflation and depreciation of Ringgit.

The longer they hold the land, the higher profit margin they will get when they sell houses or vacant lots next time.

kyy_superinvestor

Because they are township developer.

Before they develop that particular township, the land there was still very cheap, so they bought them cheap, then when the township was developing, the land market price would start going up.

Most TAMBUN's projects are of landed property, the major value of the house is land, construction cost is very much less compare to those high rise condo.

So, profit margin is high.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/6121101

The lands are to be bought at 625K per acre.

Cheap or expensive?

Some excitement for tomorrow trading?

TAMBUN今天公布，其子公司（70%股权）以1.31亿买了209.54英亩，等于每英亩625千，地点是目前的Pearl City的南边隔壁，

便宜吗？

Letsrock

是的，所以股价从高峰跌了很多下来，要看老板的能力了。。。

bb0808
没有研究，所以不清楚。

Investor 999,
不必劳烦你了，这个股交易量不大，不适合你这位大老板，
你买卖一次5百万股，去买那些大交易量的股票吧。

TanK0318

Not really cut loss, as I already made 3 cents profit from WA earlier.

No bad news, just that I want to switch to TAMBUN.