Investor 999,
不必劳烦你了，这个股交易量不大，不适合你这位大老板，
你买卖一次5百万股，去买那些大交易量的股票吧。

TanK0318

Not really cut loss, as I already made 3 cents profit from WA earlier.

No bad news, just that I want to switch to TAMBUN.

Sold all my SAPNRG.

Bought at 0.365, sold at 0.355.

Add coal please, not enough steam already.

1st Round:
Bought WA at 0.110 when SAPNRG was at 0.340.

2nd Round:
When SAPNRG was at 0.365 and WA at 0.14,
Sold all WA at 0.140 and took profit of 3 cents or 27%,
Then immediately bought SAPNRG at 0.365, but quantity was about half of WA's only.

Now:
Hope for SAPNRG up up up . .....

Aiya.....drop back to 0.350/0.355, not enough steam already, please someone add coal to it.

"In addition, the real money in Hire Purchase Loans, is not in the rate, its in the penalty payable for early repayment. The cars they do hire purchase for, Japanese and Continental. These are the people with money and are most likely to change car every 4-5 years."

The above para of this writing may not be correct.

In the past years, I have done a total of 3 early repayments with different banks/finance companies.
There was no penalty at all.

How car loan early repayment is calculated?
1) Calculate the Rebate,
2) Minus this Rebate from future total instalments, and pay it.

However, I found out that one Singapore bank does apply penalty on car loan early instalment. What it does is to minus only 80% of Rebate, in another word, the penalty is 20% of Rebate.

I am not sure, but I guess Bank Negara will not allow any bank to apply such penalty.

SAPNRG is a high risk high return company, it should not weight more than 10% of your investment portfolio. When I found that the WA was very cheap compare to mother share (0.11 against 0.34), I decided to take the risk and bought some WA, then who know the WA went up very soon to 0.14 against 0.365, I sold all WA and bought back SAPNRG, the quantity is about half of my WA quantity, so I am still making some money unless SAPNRG dropped to below 0.305. I read its annual report, know that they can do big jobs like pipe laying, underwater inspection (ROV) and drilling which DAYANG has no capacity to do. And for all the jobs that DAYANG are doing, SAPNRG also can do and in fact is doing. The thing I look at SAPNRG is their order book, when the order book is depleting, any company will bid low to ensure the company has something to do, but when the order book is high, then no reason the company continue to bid low. So from the 17b order book, may be the earlier part is with low profit margin, but the later award must be with high profit margin. May be theae one or two years, the company will still be losing money. If you have the patient to wait, then buy and hold.

When the company order book is high, logically they will not bid cheap for new jobs, but if the order book is low, the company will bid cheap so that at least they have something to do.

Take example of Hibiscus North Sabah (Barton, South Furious, St. Joseph)

Before a rig come to a drilling platform or jacket platform, some preparation jobs need to be done:
1) Erecting mud wall and shed to prevent drilling mud splashing all over the place.
2) For remote jacket where the instruments are operated by gas, it has to be converted to operate by air during drilling. When the rig come, they just connect their air supply to the temporary connection.
3) Some isolation to drain and vent system.
4) Some structure and equipment need to be temporary removed as it may cause obstruction to the rig,

Hibiscus will ask a detail design consultant to come out with drawings and scope.

Hibiscus then will pass these drawings and scope to DAYANG.

DAYANG will base on the drawing, come out with a document called WORKPACK, detailing how the works to be carried out, manpower and duration required for execution by a workboat or site team.

The above is called Pre-Drill Activities, to be executed before arrival of rig.

Then the rig come and do drilling.

When drilling completed, rig go away.

Then DAYANG will go to the platform again to do the followings: (WORKPACK should have been done much earlier)
1) Post Drill Activities, reinstate the platform to the normal mode of operation.
2) Well Tie-in, connect piping and instrument for the newly drilled well


Why cant the rig also do these Pre-Drill, Post Drill and Well Tie-in jobs?

Because rig is much more expensive than workboat or site team.

The coming Q4 (Nov/Dec/Jan) might not be good, I guess small loss or small profit.

But later on Q1 and Q2 will be good.

Appreciate if any one can tell me which other Oil and Gas companies in Malaysia own drilling rigs?

Thanks

https://www.thestartv.com/v/petronas-rigs-in-malaysian-waters-to-increase

Petronas said the number of rigs in Malaysian waters will be around mid 20s compare to about 15 last years.

Who will benefit from the additional rigs? Most probably to give to GLCs

1) VELESTO: They own 7 rigs, but according to their annual report, the utilization rate already gone up to 95%, so most probably will only maintain that percentage.

2) SAPNRG: According to Q3 Media Release, they said only 7 out of 15 rigs are working, 8 rigs are still standby at high sea? Most probably SAPNRG will benefit most. Let assume out of that 8 standby rigs, SAPNRG will get 6 rigs hired. A rig will generate revenue of roughly 400K per day, then the additional revenue for SAPNRG = 6*0.4m*91 = 218m per quarter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_options_pricing_model

Also read from the above wiki.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJls_RgTniw&index=4&list=PL4108D90CA93915EB

If you want to understand how to calculate fair value of warrants,
Watch this Youtube many many time, until you understand.

Do you know why I never say here about call warrants of SAPNRG?

Too expensive!

The Implied Volatility (IV) of them are very high, the lowest is around 100%.

As I said before, when WA moving up faster than mother share, probably some fund managers tell their girl friends/mistress to buy WA first before they use their fund money to buy mother share.

Year to Yesterday, Velesto has gone up 64%. So it is logical to sell Velesto for SAPNRG.

The interest rate MUST go down.

If not, EPF and PNB will have big problem to pay out high dividend at year end.

James Ng,

看完了视频，之中有人提起BKAWAN，麻烦你去深入探讨这间KLK的母公司，

作长期投资的话，小散户没有必要买KLK啦，买BKAWAN更划算，

连KLK的大老板和属下聊天时，都叫他们买BKAWAN，不要买KLK，

Valid for 21st March 2019

Input Volatility = 45.7%
SAPNRG = 0.34, WA Fair Value = 0.147,

What if Volatility = 55%
SAPNRG = 0.34, WA Fair Value = 0.175,

What if Volatility = 35%
SAPNRG = 0.34, WA Fair Value = 0.111,

Volatility may change, and has great effect on WA Fair Value.


And what if I input the expiry as 23rd July 2025 instead of the actual expiry 23rd January 2026?
Volatility = 45.7%, SAPNRG = 0.34, WA Fair Value = 0.139,

Why must I input the expiry 6 months earlier than the actual expiry?
Because when come to 6 months before the actual date, may be (I am not sure) people already not interested in WA, because of the troublesome of converting it to mother share.

Valid for today only:

If SAPNRG is at 0.35, WA's Fair Value is 0.155,

For every one sen SAPNRG move up or down, WA's Fair Value will move 0.7 sen accordingly.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/198495.jsp

Refer to his conclusion.

Why must he reacted in such a way, wasn't it good for him if he was still accumulating the share?

Logical thinking,

he is not accumulating any more and waiting for the share to go up and dispose.

The latest Historical Volatility (HV).

1) Last day 1 to Day 30, HV = 41.2%
2) Last day 1 to Day 60, HV = 45.5%
3) Last day 1 to Day 90, HV = 47.4%
4) Last day 31 to Day 120, HV = 48.7%
5) Last day 61 to Day 150, HV = 57.7%

What I normally do is to take away the highest i.e. 57.7%, then calculate the average of the remaining 4 data, so I get 45.7%.

I will input this 45.7% into my calculator.

1) SAPNRG = 0.36, Volatility = 45.7%, WA Fair Value = 0.161.

But, what if I input different volatility into my calculator.

1) SAPNRG = 0.36, Volatility = 35%, WA Fair Value = 0.125
2) SAPNRG = 0.36, Volatility = 55%, WA Fair Value = 0.189

When I wrote my post on SAPNRG-WA.

SAPNRG = 0.34
WA Fair Value = 0.146
WA Market Price = 0.11
Fair / Market = 0.146 / 0.11 = 133%, A lot of meat.

Now,

SAPNRG = 0.36
WA Fair Value = 0.161
WA Market Price = 0.145
Fair / Market = 0.161 / 0.145 = 111%, Not much meat already.

Whether you buy mother share or warrants, you are hoping the company can perform well.

If the warrants calculated to be a better choice than mother share, buy warrant.

If otherwise, buy mother share,

This is a better mind set.

When I wrote my post "Buy SAPNRG-WA instead of its Mother Share",

SAPNRG was 0.34,
SAPNRG-WA was 0.11,

Right now
SAPNRG is 0.36, up only 2 sen since then,
SAPNRG-WA is 0.145, already up 3.5sen.

By right, when SAPNRG is at around 0.3X, SAPNRG-WA should go up only 1.4 sen if the mother share SAPNRG go up 2 sen.

So, there must be something interesting.
1) Big boys about to buy SAPNRG heavily, or
2) The insiders know the QR to be made good looking, so buy SAPNRG-WA.

Sorry, all these are just logical guessing, I dun have evidence.

If not, you just explain to yourself why WA go up while mother share going down.

Same to those KLCI heavyweight counters, before the managers go in to buy heavily for their funds, they might ask their proxy (girl friends etc) to long FKLI.

I guess only.

The fund managers ask their proxy to buy WA first,

They will use funds' money to buy SAPNRG after their proxy have accumulated enough WA.

This is why you see WA price go up, mother share go down.

risktransformer

Haha...I know, that time I just wanted to disturb dragonslayer.

risktransformer

Haha...I got it from here.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/investmalaysia2019/198304.jsp

https://drive.google.com/file/d/17ne2cKTr1LFk6cKYnGHP9YnqkbFC09Q5/view

Maybank IB gives 12 months target of 0.55 to SAPNRG.

As I said before, when SAPNRG at around 35 sen, the WA should move 0.7 sen for every 1.0 sen the mother share moved.

Newplayer286

I bought WA at 0.11 when the mother share was 0.34.

After WA moving more than mother share which normally shouldn't be the case,

WA now become less meat.

But when WA go up more than mother share, it is an indication that the mother share will go up further.

Sold all my WA and then bought SAPNRG, for profit taking and risk control.

The time I wrote this post, SAPNRG was 0.34, with that price the calculated fair value of WA was 0.146, compared with market price of 0.11, Fair Value / Market Price = 0.146 / 0.11 = 133%.

Now, SAPNRG = 0.365, the calculated fair value of WA = 0.165, compared with market price of 0.135, Fair Value / Market Price = 0.165 / 0.135 = 122%.

Not so much meat already.

If you have bought WA at 0.11, you may want to decide whether to continue keeping the WA or just sell off to take the profit.

From 0.11 to 0.135, you already made 22% profit.

dragonslayer,

Then we will have so many questions to ask:

1) If the house is so good for investment, why must the developer sell it to you, they better keep all houses and rent them to people. And why the banks lend you money to buy the house, banks should buy the houses and rent them out.

2) If the stock investment could give good return, why must the banks give you margin loans, they better buy the stocks instead of give you margin account.

And I believe there will be more investment banks revise up their target prices for SAPNRG within one or two weeks time.

Anyway, you have your right to ask any question.

I have my right to respond or not to respond to you too.

HLG gives target of 0.41,
AmInvest gives target of 0.50,

Let us take the average = 0.455,

I was told the targets given by investment banks is actually meaning "One Year Target",

If we expect 8% return per year from stock investment,

Then SAPNRG should be moving to 0.455/1.08 = 0.42 very soon.

leek

If SAPNRG is now 0.50, the WA fair value is 0.264, apply the same 16% discount, the market price might be 0.84*0.264 = 0.222.

spinninglotus

Refer to what I wrote this morning,

SAPNRG is now at 0.37, the WA fair value is 0.167, the market price is 0.14, discount of 16%.

If SAPNRG is now 0.70, the WA fair value is 0.438, apply the same 16% discount, the market price might be 0.84*0.438 = 0.368.

Refer to what I calculated this morning,

For every 2 cents up or down of SAPNRG, the WA by right should move 1.4 cents accordingly.

Look at this morning session, SAPNRG went up 2 cents, but the WA move 2.5 cents.

How to explain this?

1) The market might have realized that the WA was much cheaper than its fair value.
2) The fund managers who managed investment money for other people, may want to buy SAPNRG in big amount for their funds very soon, so before they buy heavily, they will get their mistress to buy WA first for quick profit.

The fair value of SAPNRG-WA for different mother share prices:

1) SAPNRG = 0.300, WA = 0.118
2) SAPNRG = 0.320, WA = 0.132
3) SAPNRG = 0.340, WA = 0.146
4) SAPNRG = 0.360, WA = 0.160
5) SAPNRG = 0.380, WA = 0.175
6) SAPNRG = 0.400, WA = 0.189

The above are valid for today only.

Veron_teo

Abusive will not help at all,

What's wrong with the topic?

The calculation is to determine whether to buy mother share or WA.

The two guys Mr Black and Mr Scholes are both Nobel prize winners.

Newplayer286

Fair Value 0.145 against market price of 0.11,

Very Good already.

speakup.

1) It will expire in 2026, big premium for long time, it is OK.
2) Cold Eyes said the mother share will go up many folds.

I bought SAPNRG

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/197801.jsp

I Bought SAPNRG-WA.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/197801.jsp

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/03/07/bank-negara-may-lower-rate-in-july/

The government has no other choice, must reduce the interest rate.

NAIM / DAYANG / PERDANA will enjoy the benefit of reducing interest rate as all of them are heavy in debts.

NAIM is also meeting KYY golden rules, and it is much cheaper.

Q4-18 EPS 17.42
Q3-18 EPS 12.8
Q2-18 EPS 3.87
Q1-18 EPS -6.79

The above EPS include contribution from DAYANG and PERDANA, and they are divided by the number of shares before the right issue.

If they are to be divided by the enlarged total shares, they become

Q4-18 EPS 8.24
Q3-18 EPS 6.06
Q2-18 EPS 1.83
Q1-18 EPS -3.21

If again we exclude contribution from DAYANG and PERDANA, they become

Q4-18 EPS 2.90
Q3-18 EPS 3.36
Q2-18 EPS -0.42
Q1-18 EPS -0.77

And one good news for Q4-18, there were 10.1m fair value write down, the EPS would have been 4.90 sen if without the write down.

So, NAIM is actually doing quite well and improve on property and construction.

Say we are conservative and assume NAIM can maintain EPS of 3 sen per quarter on their business excluding DAYANG and PERDANA, meaning 12 sen per year.

Let us give PE of 5 for that, That value would be 60 sen.

NAIM's total shares after right issue is 500,743,322 (excluding treasury shares)
NAIM own 254,921,952 shares of DAYANG
NAIM own 76,986,429 shares of PERDANA

254,921,952 / 500,743,322 = 0.50
76,986,429 / 500,743,322 = 0.15

Therefore the formula for NAIM fair price
= 0.60 + 0.50*DAYANG + 0.15*PERDANA
= 0.60 + 0.50*1.58 + 0.15*0.29
= 1.43

You can input any other prices for DAYANG and PERDANA to get different fair price for NAIM.