这目标价是net of “ddividend”的，更正为dividend

200steps “Binomialf”方法更正为“Binomial”

The coming Q4 2019's result should be improving as the FFB increase but the price not yet up,

The real good will be the Q1 2020 as the FFB production and price both increase.

CBIP did disclose the plantation and milling revenue in the quarterly results

I find that the revenue for 2nd Qtr 2019 shot up like rocket, then again shot up even higher in the 3rd Qtr 2019.

However, the reports did not say the increasing revenue is due to which of the followings:

1) Increasing FFB production, or
2) The new palm oil mill that may operate with mainly external FFB, or
3) Mix of the above two.

CBIP so far did not disclose any statistics on FFB production.

My the above estimation is based on nos of ha planted in the year and total ha planted by end of the year, this information is available in the annual reports from Year 2013 to 2018.

No. Because no information is available.

However, it is not so important, if say the production is lower by 20% across the board, the 110,627mT for 2019 and 458,387mT for 2028 will both be reduced by 20% anyway.

We can expect revenue from the plantation segment is shooting through the roof.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-01-26-story-h1482930285-CBIP_The_Plantation_Production_Revenue_will_Explode_and_Shoot_through_t.jsp

Give up this company, sold all my VC-PA at 0.03 just now.

I update VC-PA fair value calculation, this time also include VC-WB.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-01-19-story-h1482841067.jsp

I just can not understand these people,

I saw some one bought VC-WB at 0.035 just now,

Why not he buy VC-PA instead of VC-WB which is also available at 0.035.

VC-WB exercise price is 0.15, and VC-PA exercise price is cheaper at 0.10,

Some more VC-PA has another option on conversion, i.e. 3PA to 1 VC.

Crazy people.

May be that Singaporean wants to kick out the big boss.

The big boss shares under pledged account, but that Singaporean's shares are not.

And that Singaporean has a lot of VC-PA, once he convert his PA into VC, he will be the biggest shareholder.

hehehehe....

If you look at the top 30 shareholders, more than 40% of the company shares are parked under pledged share accounts, they have to fight back if dont want banks to force sell their shares.

So fighting from both sides.

Knowing that the big boss's shares are parked under pledged shares account, some one might want to kick him out.

Goreng down the share price to trigger force sell is one of the possible ways.

I bought some more VC-PA at 0.035 this morning.

Albert1962,

May be those got the new 760,000 share will sell VC and buy back again 2,280,000 VC-PA.

Anyway, the VC trading volume is very high compare to the new share, I think it should not affect the VC price.

Latest news from Bursa,

There will be 760000 VC to be listed tomorrow, converted from VC-PA.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3015987

Buy VC-PA lah.

If VC-PA is at 0.05 or lower, people will convert by 3*PA=1*VC, the company will not receive cash.

If no cash, the company can not buy the broker firm and any other expansion.

So, if you buy VC-PA now at 0.04, very likely you can keep and wait for the boss to goreng it to at least 0.05, you will have 25% profit.

fl888,

Correct,

You can convert VC-PA to VC mother share by choosing one of the following 2 formulas:
1) 3*PA to 1*VC
2) 1*PA + 0.10 Cash to 1*PA

That is why I said the prices of VC and VC-PA are miss matched, and this situation will not be sustainable.

James Ng,

VC-PA should not be left out when you talk about VC.

You should not forget VC-PA when you talk about VC, because it is very ridiculous for VC-PA to trade at 0.04 compare to VC=0.17.

The above two announcement show changes in Director Goh in VC and VC-PA respectively. Same quantity on same day, so meaning convert by 1VC=1PA+0.10.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=2999650

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=2999649

But to be fair to the company bosses,

This "prices miss matched" was not likely created by the bosses to collect hard cash from us.

The reason I said so is because VC-PA is trading below 0.05, No one will opt for conversion by 1 PA+0.10=1VC. People will just convert by 3PA=1VC, no hard cash to be collected by the company.

In fact if we look at the record, on 31st Oct 2019
1) Director Lim converted 3,290,000 VC-PA by 1PA+0.10=1VC,
2) Director Goh converted 30,456,150 VC-PA by 1PA+0.10=1VC,

They really took out hard cash from their own pocket for the conversion.

So they do have confidence in the company.

As I said, VC and VC-PA prices are miss matched,

There must be a lot of people,
1) Who already owned VC-PA,
2) And also a lot of people will rush in to buy VC-PA,

Then many of these people will convert VC-PA into VC mother share,

What will they do if the prices are still miss matched when they get their mother share?

Of course they will sell their mother share and buy back VC-PA again, and will go for another round of conversion!

So, will the "price miss matched" sustained?

Of course I have bought some VC-PA before I wrote about VC-PA fair value calculation, unless I mentioned clearly in the article that I did not buy any.

Aiyo......

The prices of VC-PA and VC mother share are very much miss matched, simply does not make sense.

It is either VC is too much being goreng up or VC-PA is too much being goreng down.

That is why in my fair value calculation for VC-PA, I input VC=0.12.

And even VC at 0.12, the fair value of VC-PA is 0.0667,

So, buy VC-PA instead of VC mother share, or do not buy any of VC or VC-PA at all.

之前我在Cell K2放=IF(I2<0.10,I2/3,I2-$B$6)/B$7是疏忽，得到错误的合理价0.0640，改正后为=IF(I2<0.15,I2/3,I2-$B$6)/B$7，才得到正确的合理价为0.0667。注明：K2的formula是要copy去整个Column K的。

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-01-12-story-h1482126082.jsp

Aiya, yesterday I bought at 0.065 and sold on the same day at the same price.

犯了严重错误，没有注意到SERBADK早前有股票拆细和红股，所以计算Volatility时算错了，请看改正后的新帖。

有网友善意提醒。。。
所以今天早上就排着-5.0要平仓，刚刚做完了，
扣除交易费/税，净赚1.2608点，或每张赚RM63.04，赚点小钱也好，
如果它再涨回去-3.0，可能再卖。

以上的文件是有本地大学的讲师所发表的。。。

参考那个Equation （1），P fair = P （ 1 + i ）- D

D是Dividend，所以是零，因为正月没有任何的股息除权。

他们说 i 应该是financing rate，以目前马来西亚的现状，应该是4%吧，

P就当着是12月的FKLI的市价=1612

那么P fair或正月的FKLI的合理价 = 1612 （ 1 + 0.04 / 12）- 0 = 1617.4，

所以FKLI Dec/Jan Spread 的合理价 = 1612 - 1617.4 = -5.4点

而今早我说的合理价是-4.85点，我还比较保守呢！

http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/3297/1/Price_Efficiency_of_Stock_Index_Futures_Contracts.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0FH0kVbVOKUuWzZpkJSNHFgGwHrVP2TQJcoreeQnOaJh2e8IZrNkYsslQ

刚刚在RM0.07卖完C7T了，期货FKLI也即刻平仓了。

gbk5566,

我不曾这样研究过，
我一切以当前的股息除权的数据和利率而去计算它们的合理价，
目前我是假设明年的股息除权和今年相同，
得到以下的预测股息除权：
1）正月：没有任何股息除权
2）二月：股息除权约5.08点
3）三月：股息除权约10.33点
4）四月：股息除权约6.84点
5）五月：股息除权约2.67点
6）六月：股息除权约3.82点

要注意：
1）PBBANK于2019年3月5日除权37分的股息，我预测2020年它很有可能提早在2月除权。
2）MAYBANK于2019年5月7日除权32分股息，我预测2020年它很有可能提早在4月除权。

我没有办法解释为什么它们有可能提早，感觉而已。

改正

。。。而它的寿命只sheng剩下4个月。。。

是只剩下

改正

。。。因为去年第4季时AXIATA的16.6亿亏损和TENAGA的1.3亿亏损将从计算里退场。。。

是1.3亿，不是1.3

5354_

What I can think of, one of the following,

1) Some people are very sure that the company will get big job / profit soon.
2) The market players are just stupid, simply goreng.

Hahaha...OK..OK..

Input interest rate and volatility at 4% and 32%,

Then trial and error the mother share price, until I get WA's fair value of 0.125,

The correct mother share price is 0.395.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/230904.jsp

14th March:
Mother share and WA were RM0.340 and RM0.110, so I bought WA,

17th March:
I write a comment that we should consider to take profit.

18th October:
Mother share and WA are now RM0.270 and RM0.125, what a surprise!

In another word, at the moment when the mother share is at RM0.270, I will only buy WA if the market price is much below than the fair value of RM0.055.

以今天母股是1.68，而WB已经涨到0.390，应该套利了啦。。

明天财政预算案，股市可能大起，也可能大跌，横摆的几率应该比较小。手上有大量C7O的朋友，可以选择抛空期货来做对冲，最好的比例是1张FKLI配78000股C7O，大起大跌都有钱赚，当然谁也说不定，如果股市不动如山，那就会亏一点钱。。。。

你蛮Resourceful的，能找到如此的资料。

我是估算10月将会有约5.02点的除权，然后从中算出SEP/OCT Spread的合理价，至于Bloomberg是怎样算，我不清楚。

目前CIMB的股息除权日还没有确定在在哪个月，看来应该在10月，以此计算，是应该买在-0.5点，不过9月只剩下几天而已，如果你的水钱不便宜的话，那就不要。

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/226012.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/226012.jsp

我是说这个：

你先明白以下：

1）A先生有很多现金，看好市场，他想投资股票，他有两个选择，
1.1）拿钱去买股票，
1.2）拿一点钱去Long期货FKLI，剩下的钱拿去赚利息。

2）B先生只有一些钱，也看好市场，他也想投资股票，他也有两个选择，
2.1）利用Margin/借钱去买股票，
2.2）拿一点钱去Long期货FKLI。

3）C先生有很多蓝筹股，看坏市场，他想卖掉股票，他有两个选择，
3.1）把全部股票卖掉，
3.2）Short期货FKLI。

以下的因素影响他们如何做决定：
1）买股票能领取多少股息？
2）把钱存在银行能赚到多少利息？
3）借钱买股票需要付出多少利息？

借钱和存钱的利息全年都是不会变动，除非国家银行加/减息，
所以关键是在股息，未来的股息大家只能猜猜而已，或者当着是和往年一样。

The KLIBOR (Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate) is the average interest rate at which term deposits are offered between prime banks in the Malaysian ...

我不明白你说的KLIBOR Index Point？