We should not invest in any plantation company base on their latest EPS.

We should check their past EPS record at various CPO prices then, use spreadsheet to predict their EPS if the CPO prices going down to, say 10 years average.

For your information, SWKPLNT should be making EPS 21 sen a year if the CPO going down to the 10 years average, or PE would be only 13 times.

RM1.86*40,100,000units/758Ha=RM98,398/Ha, Not Cheap.

Hope you will not regret.

KLK boss asked his own staffs to buy BKAWAN instead of KLK.
The reason is very simple.

ahbah

I sold in batches when it was climbing up, overall average was 4.20.

Bad result.
Lucky I sold all.
Will decide to buy back when the price drop below RM4.00.

CharlesT,

The Equity Level chart that shown in this post was from Aug 2010 and onward.
Because the Q.Results before that showed the Book Value in the Balance Sheet.
That make a bit more work to compute the Equity Level.
However, last night I spent some times to complete it.

I found that the overall average Equity Level from Nov 2005 to Nov 2021 is 53.7%.
With the 20 sen special Dividend, the Equity Level will be around 65% by Feb 2022.
Unless ICAP sell more than buy during current Quarter.

I also do not want to keep ICAP for Long.
Just bought it because the Price / NAV ratio is very Low.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2022-02-13-story-h1598456061-Right_Time_to_Buy_ICAP.jsp

Already bought some ICAP.

In June 2020 and November 2021, HAPSENG offered to buy 1175.8ha (552ha + 623.8ha) from HSPLANT for 160.9m (76.0m + 84.9m), or RM136,843/ha. It is much higher than the market price of 80000/ha. I think it is because the estates are at good location and are potential for property development

If HAPSENG really want to privatize HSPLANT, it should not have made the above offers. Just need to add another 440m, make up to a total of 600m, to offer RM3.00 /share to privatize HSPLANT.

The EV/ha for HSPLANT estates:
1) Market Price RM2.05, EV = 47000/ha, very very cheap.
2) If to offer RM2.50/share, EV = 57000/ha, very cheap.
3) If to offer RM3.00/share, EV = 69000/ha, still cheap.
4) If to offer RM3.50/share, EV = 80000/ha, fair price.

Recent deals:
1) KMLOONG bought Sabah oil palm estate at 80000/ha.
2) KLK bought IJMPLNT, the valuation were, Sabah estate at 80000/ha and Indonesia estate at 40000/ha.

My guess is:
HAPSENG may be intend to dispose off the plantation business, but wants to keep the above 1175.8ha land for property development.

What I know about typical IPP contract in Malaysia:
1) Contract 20 - 25 years.
2) Buyer to decide when to connect or not to the power grid.
3) If connected, Seller will get more revenue and profit.
4) If not connected, Seller to pay a fixed amount provided the plant is ready to be connected, Seller revenue and profit will be minimum.
5) End of contract, two alternatives, both Buyer and Seller can agree to extend with new rate, or Buyer take over and pay an amount as per the contract.
6) Fuel is cost plus basis.

So my concern is during the long 20+/- years:
1) If there is many new local IPP in future, foreign IPP will be the last one to be connected, is there any provision in the Contract to protect foreign IPP?

140+/- trading days before effective Expiry,
Volatility for the past 140 trading days = 52.5%, input this to Calculator.

Valid for 29/12/2021 only, Fair Value of C2C:

1) TOPGLOV=2.30, C2C=0.100
2) TOPGLOV=2.32, C2C=0.104
3) TOPGLOV=2.34, C2C=0.107
4) TOPGLOV=2.36, C2C=0.111
5) TOPGLOV=2.38, C2C=0.115
6) TOPGLOV=2.40, C2C=0.119
7) TOPGLOV=2.42, C2C=0.122
8) TOPGLOV=2.44, C2C=0.126
9) TOPGLOV=2.46, C2C=0.130
10) TOPGLOV=2.48, C2C=0.134
11) TOPGLOV=2.50, C2C=0.138

Valid for 28/12/2021 only, Fair Value of C2C:

1) TOPGLOV=2.30, C2C=0.100
2) TOPGLOV=2.32, C2C=0.104
3) TOPGLOV=2.34, C2C=0.107
4) TOPGLOV=2.36, C2C=0.111
5) TOPGLOV=2.38, C2C=0.115
6) TOPGLOV=2.40, C2C=0.118

True, it is very likely to end-up TOTAL LOSS,
However, there is "Not So Likely" we will make more than 100% Profit.
Average out, the fair Value was RM0.08 yesterday.

Of course, right now the Fair Value is RM0.1166 when mother share is RM2.40.

Sold all at RM0.09,
Aiya, sold too early.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2021-12-26-story-h1596407327-TOPGLOV_C2C.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2021-12-10-story-h1595534584-TOPGLOV_Time_to_Look_at_its_Structured_Warrants.jsp

The Volatility is picking up, time to trade its structured warrants, both call and put.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2021-12-05-story-h1594819607-SIMEPLT_Valuation_of_its_Plantation_Estate.jsp

The true value of SIMEPLT.

Sorry to say, I think KYY should get service of experts to help in investment.

What is the point of calculating PE based on past 2Q plus next 2Q only?

What if the company make very little profit after that?

KYY should estimate / predict the company next 5 (at least) years profit.

I give an example for a company XYZ, apply a discounted rate of 8%.

1) 2022 EPS : 0.25, pv = 0.25/1.08 = 0.23
2) 2023 EPS : 0.20, pv = 0.20/1.08^2 = 0.17
3) 2024 EPS : 0.15, pv = 0.15/1.08^3 = 0.12
4) 2025 EPS : 0.10, pv = 0.10/1.08^4 = 0.07
5) 2026 EPS : 0.05, pv = 0.05/1.08^5 = 0.03
6) 2026 price at PE of 10, pv = 0.05*10/1.08^5 = 0.34

Sum up the above 6 items, fair value = 0.23+0.17+0.12+.07+0.03+0.34 = 0.96

Wow... 20 sen dividend.

I think esg issue is not so applicable to small companies, as local investor like us would not care, we care for the PE and DY only.

Those big foreign funds who care for esg will not invest in small companies anyway.

I estimate TAANN eps should be around RM0.20.

The company need cash for some reason, so they did PP.
Now you ask them to buy back, where to get cash again for the same reason?
To PP again at even cheaper price?

What you said is true and correct,
I checked with my former colleague who is from Sibu,
TAANN is relatively clean and honest,

Those who have friends from Sibu, please ask them.

I keep both SWKPLNT and TAANN,
Monitor their price ratio,
Now it is 2.55 / 3.15 = 0.81,

And adjust my SWKPLNT / TAANN portfolio ratio from time to time.

If you are quite sure the CPO price will drop sooner or later, why not just short FCPO?

How high the profit margin of steel manufacturing is important, provided it can maintain there for long time.

Take lesson learned from glove and plantation companies, the market gave a single digit PE only because the prediction is the high profit margin could not last for long.

In 4th quarter of Last year when the price ratio of SWKPLNT / TAANN was around 75%, I bought SWKPLNT.

August this year, when the price ratio has gone up to around 85%, I sold all my SWKPLNT and switched to TAANN.

This week the price ratio dropped to around 80%, I sold some of my TAANN and bought back some SWKPLNT.

In 4th quarter of Last year when the price ratio of SWKPLNT / TAANN was around 75%, I bought SWKPLNT.

August this year, when the price ratio has gone up to around 85%, I sold all my SWKPLNT and switched to TAANN.

This week the price ratio dropped to around 80%, I sold some of my TAANN and bought back some SWKPLNT.

Make reference to BRIGHT (9938) announcement to Bursa on dated 19th August 2021.

The Board of Directors (“Board”) of Bright wishes to announce that the Company had on 19 August 2021 entered into a Joint Venture Agreement (“JVA”) with Datai Plantations Sdn. Bhd. (“DPSB”) (hereinafter referred to collectively as “Parties”) to form an unincorporated joint venture for the purpose of developing an oil palm plantation together with facilities and the provision of services ancillary to such plantation on parcels of land located in Sarikei, Sarawak (“Project”).

Read the item 4.3 of document:

The Investment Sum shall be utilised by the Project to plant up to an additional 150 hectares of oil palm as calculated based on an estimated development cost of Ringgit Malaysia Thirty Three Thousand only (RM33,000.00) per hectare as at the date of the JVA.

You see,
The development cost alone is already RM33K / ha, not yet adding purchase price of the land.
The Enterprise Value / ha for TAANN estate is very much below that.

When I bought SWKPLNT last year, the price ratio of SWKPLNT / TAANN was around 75%.

When the ratio went up to more than 85% recently, and with the news that the timber segment of TAANN is going to be good, I sold all my SWKPLNT and bought TAANN.

When I bought SWKPLNT last year, the price ratio of SWKPLNT / TAANN was around 75%.

When the ratio went up to more than 85% recently, and with the news that the timber segment of TAANN is going to be good, I sold all my SWKPLNT and bought TAANN.

What? I listen to your advice? Who do you think you are?

Or may be you were the one who sold C85 to me at 5 sen?

I wrote that I bought for second round but at smaller quantity, so there was no question of "The volume don't check out".

It is quite safe to buy during the settlement days.
The chance of losing money is small.

When I bought on the 3rd settlement day, I already knew the VWAP for the 1st and 2nd Day. And when I bought again on the 4th settlement day, I already knew the VWAP for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd day.

Cash out and keep RM in bank? He will regret.
He can actually better buy foreign stocks or keep SGD in bank.

*last trading day on 28th June

1) That guy should have waited until the next day to sell at 6 sen instead of 5 sen. He sold to me at 5 sen and I sold it the next day at 6 sen, making 20% gross profit, wasn't it bad for him and good for me?

2) How many times do I need to tell you that "equal chance for the mother share to go both direction"? Go and click the above youtube link and watch. To be exact, we assume the mother share price will in average grow at a rate of equal to interest rate minus dividend yield, then assume it will spread like normal distribution.

3) After making 20% gross profit in the first round, I bought again until the last trading day on 29th June but at smaller quantity, My average purchase price for the second round was at 3.6 sen, and the settlement value is 3.76 sen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzMQ3hZqtp0&t=1025s

Understand how to evaluate / calculate the fair value of call warrants.

I said equal chance for the mother share to go both direction,
However, to be exact, for most cases, it is a bit more to upside, depending on interest rate and dividend yield.

As I said, call warrants are for those people who believe that the mother share could go up and down both directions, with equal chance.

Last Friday, when it was around 10.02, I bought C85 with about 10% discount from intrinsic value.

After that, when came to end of Friday trading hours, it shot up to 10.44, of course I was very happy. I show the calculation, for that price of mother share, the intrinsic value of C85 is 0.12, and then question why the last 2 trades of C85 were still at 0.05.

From Friday's 10.44, from there I believe again the mother share could go both direction, further up or reverse down.

Unfortunately, today it reverse direction and go down.

When it came down to around 10.08, the discount is around 10% if I sell at 0.06, I decided to take profit.

Bought at 10% discount and sold at 10% discount with 20% profit, isn't very good?

Now it is at 10.04/10.06, I Q to buy again at 0.05.
If mother share go further down, then I will revise down my Q.

If I did not sell it at 0.06 this morning, I would feel reluctant Q to buy 0.05 now, because my exposure / risk is much higher holding 500K or 600K units.

What is the point to bet at what price TENAGA will end up end of June?
I told you I do not know, I can only say I believe it has equal chance to go both directions.

jeffchan1901
Thanks.

milosh,

I bought at 10% discount and sold at 10% discount, OK lah for profit taking.
Some more now the Dow future drop so much.

I revised the sell Q and sold 100K at 0.06.
No more holding.

I will buy again, but will not disclose here,
Because it may look irritating.

I revised the sell Q and sold 100K at 0.06.
No more holding.

RJ87,

If that is what you think,
I can only say you better don't trade call warrant.

There are 400K buy Q now at 0.055,
200K of it is mine, I guess the other 200K should be from the issuer CIMB.

TENAGA at 10.10, C85 intrinsic value = 0.069

Sold 200K units at 0.06 for profit taking.

And the sell Q 100K now at 0.065 is mine.

And the sell Q 100K now at 0.065 is mine.
Any taker?

TENAGA at 10.10, C85 intrinsic value = 0.069

Sold 200K units at 0.06 for profit taking.

RJ87

Read again what I wrote in this post, I mentioned that the time value is negligible as C85 is about to expire.

Therefore I calculate its intrinsic value, intrinsic value is actually the lowest fair value when we assume both volatility and interest rate are zero.

Any volatility and interest rate will create added value to the call warrants.

Call warrants are for those people who believe that there are equal chance for the mother share to go North and South.

If you believe TENAGA will certainly go South, then do not buy mother share or its call warrants.

If you believe TENAGA will certainly go North, also do not buy its call warrants, it is better to borrow money (margin account etc) and all in.

Do not have a mindset to sailang for any single stock or its call warrants.

Many years ago, before I could first trade call warrant, I need to sign a form to disclose my years of experience in stock trading, I believe the rule is still there.

RJ87,

The more it can gap up/down, the higher the value of C85.

Say now TENAGA is only 9.96,
Intrinsic value of C85 is = (9.96 - 9.6337) / 6.7436 = 0.048,

If it is highly volatile that:

1) 50% chance go up 1.00 and 50% chance go down 1.00
Then the value of C85 = 50%*(10.96 - 9.6337) / 6.7436 = 0.098

2) 50% chance go up 2.00 and 50% chance go down 2.00
Then the value of C85 = 50%*(11.96 - 9.6337) / 6.7436 = 0.172

milosh,

As of today, I think I was lucky to have bought C85 at 0.05,
My break even = 9.6337 + 6.7436 * 0.05 = 9.971
Meaning if TENAGA's VWAP > 9.971,
I will make gross profit.

Of course if the VWAP is <9.6337, then all my C85 will be total loss.

Can download and read the official document.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3103072

getingreal,

No burn, and no need to come out with the conversion money, it is automatically cash settled.

For example,
If the VWAP of TENAGA for the 5 trading days is 10.14,
Then, (10.14 - 9.6337) / 6.7436 = RM0.075,
The issuer, in this case CIMB Investment Bank will pay yus RM0.075 per unit.

I used to receive cheque from the issuers, but I heard that now they just bank-in to our account just like our dividend.

Many years ago, there were some call warrants that were physical settlement, that one we need to send them the money and they will give you the mother shares.

But in recent years, I never came across any call warrant that is for physical settlement.

However, it is still safer to read the official document which you can download from bursamalaysia.com

For this particular C85, I have read the document, it is automatically cash settlement, we just have to wait for the money if the mother share is higher than the conversion price / strike.