Thanks.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2021-01-16-story-h1539379417-HARTA_Valuation_by_Discounted_Model.jsp

KYY, I agree that the EPS will increase further for the next one or two quarters. However, the EPS will soon drop drastically when more supply from existing and new glove manufacturers. How soon I don't know but I believe it is quite soon. It is better to use discounted model to estimate the fair value for SUPERMX.

Just ignore him.

The correct way to estimate the fair value of glove companies:
1) Estimate/list all the future Quarterly EPS before their earning back to normal.
2) All the above EPS to be discounted back to today, i.e. Present Value of them.
3) Guess when will their earning drop back to normal, 2023? 2024? or 2025?
4) Guess what will be their yearly EPS when they are in normal market?
5) Guess what is the reasonable PE ratio when they go back to normal, 30, 40 or 50?

Sum up the above and that is your estimation of their today's fair value.

Haha....People expect the ASP to go down very soon but KYY still use the current EPS to estimate the fair price.

Bought some at 10.48 on 31st afternoon.
Then Q to sell at 10.52 after 4:45pm,
hope it could be done at much higher than 10.52 at 4:50pm,
but it was not happened.

Then I read the good news of 2.44B, or about RM0.43 per share.
Hope for the best to happen on Monday.

The moment Investment banks sell CW, they will buy mother shares for hedging.

When mother share move up and down, they will minor adjust the hedging quantity because the effective gearing change per mother share movement.

The worst thing that the investment banks don't want to see is the mother share plunge below the exercise price, because they might lose money from the mother shares that they hold for hedging.

The moment Investment banks sell CW, they will buy mother shares for hedging.

When mother share move up and down, they will minor adjust the hedging quantity because the effective gearing change per mother share movement.

The worst thing that the investment banks don't want to see is the mother share plunge below the exercise price, because they might lose money from the mother shares that they hold for hedging.

Look for item "Segment cost of sales" = 26,357,000, page 15 of Q3 report.
Then sum up 3 months FFB production = 103,307mT for Q3, from Monthly Announcement,

Make x = 103,307, and y = 26,357,000,
Do the same for all quarters starting from Jan-Mar 2018.

So you will have total 11 points, make a xy chart.

Then apply/draw a trend line y=mx+c,

You will get m=RM158.7, and c=RM9,970,400.

You can use this y=mx+c to estimate the future profit from the estate operation.

Of course this will not be accurate, but at least better than nothing.

At today closing:
HARNLEN=0.715
HARNLEN-WB=0.210
Implied Volatility=28.7%

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-11-25-story-h1536610999-HARNLEN_WB_s_IMPLIED_VOLATILITY_IV.jsp

I bet on HARNLEN-WB.

It is very easy to estimate SWKPLNT profit, because the reporting by the company is very detailed.

The management has targeted FFB production growth of 18% to 415k mt for FY21.

With 415000 mT over 35076 Ha, it is only 11.8 mT / Ha, it is still below the norm of 15 mT / Ha in Sarawak. For comparison, it is about 15 mT / Ha for JTIASA, TAANN and SOP now.

SWKPLNT production was low before year 2018, TAANN bought 30.5% equity and joined in the management, bring along their experience from TAANN, FFB production improving very much since then.

With 415,000 mT in 2021 and CPO at RM2500, SWKPLNT should be able to earn RM0.26 per share.

I guess that was why the management wanted to pay another 5 cents dividend for Q3, I guess from now onwards they would pay 5 cents for every quarter or total 20 cents a year.

The balance sheet of Q3 is so good, Net borrowings (Loan / borrowings minus Cash and cash equivalent) is only 18.4 million, very much lower than previous quarters / years. In fact the Finance Income is higher than Finance costs by 160K for Q3.

There is no need to keep much cash in the company, TAANN would get return of investment by receiving dividend from SWKPLNT.

You can download from this website.

I read the report by Public Bank analyst just now, it said SWKPLNT management target for 18% increment on FFB production for 2021. I guess the company would pay 5 cents dividend for every quarters.

You see,

I expect SWKPLNT to pay more dividend (see above my earlier comment), but I thought they would pay only after the Q4 result.

So big surprise that they want to pay now.

Look at their Balance Sheet, it is very healthy,

May be they want to pay again afetr Q4, who know?

Good result.
And surprisingly another 5 cents dividend, really Good!

Enterprise value per Planted Ha:
1) SUBUR: RM16,143,
2) RSAWIT: RM22,322,
3) SWKPLNT: RM21,206,

SUBUR's EV/Ha is the lowest.
If you are looking for cheap land, go for SUBUR, but it is still a loss making company,

Share Price = 0.855
Share Qty = 967,991,000

A)Market Cap = 827,632,305
B)Total liabilities = 1,048,623,000
C)Non-controlling interests = 1,306,000
D)Other investment = 38,500,000
E)Current assets = 155,033,000


Total Mill, mt/hr = 305 (Estimate form FFB processed)
F)Value of Mill (250K per mT/hr) = 76,284,247

Enterprise Value for Planted Estate = A+B+C-D-E-F = 1,607,744,058
Total Planted Ha = 69,589
Enterprise Value / Planted Ha = RM23,103

TAANN bought 30.5% equity in SWKPLNT at RM2.00 per share in early 2018 and and became the biggest single shareholder.

So I would like to compare before and after 1st Jan 2018.

For SWKPLNT:
For the whole year of 2017, FFB production was 237827 mT.
For the latest 12 months (Nov 2019 - Oct 2020), FFB production was 338502 mT.
An increase of 42.33%.

Now look at JTIASA,
For the whole year of 2017, FFB production was 1082137 mT.
For the latest 12 months (Nov 2019 - Oct 2020), FFB production was 980,292 mT.
A decrease of 9.41%.

Now, Compare the size of these two companies,
1) FFB production: 980292 / 338502 = 2.90
2) Enterprise Value (EV) : 1584m / 735m = 2.16
3) Market Cap: 803 / 603 = 1.33

I do not really trust any small company.
Heard people said that many companies have 3 sets of accounts,
One for the boss himself, one for the partners and another one for the government.

TAANN will not be that daring because the Sarawak government still hold very big shares in SWKPLNT, in fact the equity percentage is higher than TAANN's if include other government related units.

So I like SWKPLNT for:
1) FFB will increase further for 2021, at least double digit as committed by the company.
2) Already making more profit and paying dividend, definitely will earn even more and pay more dividend.

My guess on the 3rd Quarter EPS is 3.9 sen excluding any one off gain/loss.

Aiyo, tell you another example.

TAANN bought 30.5% equity in SWKPLNT at RM2.00 at quite big premium to market price in early Year 2018.

The estate and mill were badly managed then that the average monthly FFB production was way below 20K mT.

After TAANN joined in the management since then, the average monthly FFB production increase consistently until it is now at 28.2K mT.

I look at it this way.
If the deal is bad or just to help PNB,
Then why not KLK buy it?

Pick from the Sarawak Plantation Companies which pay Dividend:
1) SOP pay 5 cents
2) SWKPLNT pay 5 cents
3) TAANN also pay 5 cents

SWKPLNT is the best, highest Dividend Yield!

Read the following facts about SWKPLNT.

Total Planted Estate = 35,076 Ha
Share Qty = 279,032,200
Share Price = RM2.130 (Last Friday Closing)
Market Cap. = RM594,338,586
Total non-current liabilities = RM174,307,000
Total current liabilities = RM131,141,000
Non-controlling interests = RM10,470,000
Total current assets = RM153,188,000
Total Milling Capacity = 120 mT/hour
Total Milling Assets = RM30,000,000 (Assume 250,000 per mT/hour, it is close to the item "Property, plant and equipment = RM282,225,000" in the Balance Sheet. For comparison, CB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT HOLDING BERHAD (CBIP) built a new 45 mT/hour Mill in Kalimantan at a cost of around RM1 million per mT/hour)

Enterprise Value (EV) for Planted Estate
= 594,338,586 + 174,307,000 + 131,141,000 + 10,470,000 - 153,188,000 - 30,000,000
= RM727,068,586

EV / Planted Estate = RM20,728 / Ha

For comparison, on 20th October 2020, FGV HOLDINGS BERHAD (FGV) issue an official statement and mention in it that "Replanting expenses for the 15,000 hectares were in the range of RM300 million per annum".
Wow, FGV's replanting cost alone already RM20,000 / Ha,
SWKPLNT's EV / Planted Estate is only RM20,728 / Ha.

Now, look from the point of FFB Production,
Latest 12 months FFB Production = 338.502 mT
EV / Annual FFB = RM2,148 / mT

Another comparison on Estate EV / Ha.
Kim Loong announced on 19th Feb 2020, that they were buying Planted Estate in Sandakan at a price of RM80,000 per Ha.
Wow, a price of almost 4 times of SWKPLNT's EV / Ha of RM20,728.

Total Planted Estate = 35,076 Ha
Share Qty = 279,032,200
Share Price = RM2.130
Market Cap. = RM594,338,586
Total non-current liabilities = RM174,307,000
Total current liabilities = RM131,141,000
Non-controlling interests = RM10,470,000
Total current assets = RM153,188,000
Total Milling Capacity = 120 mT/hour
Total Milling Assets = RM30,000,000 (Assume 250,000 per mT/hour, it is close to the item "Property, plant and equipment = RM282,225,000" in the Balance Sheet. For comparison, CB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT HOLDING BERHAD (CBIP) built a new 45 mT/hour Mill in Kalimantan at a cost of around RM1 million per mT/hour)

Enterprise Value (EV) for Planted Estate
= 594,338,586 + 174,307,000 + 131,141,000 + 10,470,000 - 153,188,000 - 30,000,000
= RM727,068,586

EV / Planted Estate = RM20,728 / Ha

For comparison, on 20th October 2020, FGV HOLDINGS BERHAD (FGV) issue an official statement and mention in it that "Replanting expenses for the 15,000 hectares were in the range of RM300 million per annum".
Wow, FGV's replanting cost alone already RM20,000 / Ha,
SWKPLNT's EV / Planted Estate is only RM20,728 / Ha.

Now, look from the point of FFB Production,
Latest 12 months FFB Production = 338.502 mT
EV / Annual FFB = RM2,148 / mT

How to compare ICAP’s NAV, Price with KLCI.

On 20th Oct 2005 (from its website)
NAV = 0.99
Price = 1.03
KLCI = 911.69

On 28th October 2020
NAV = 2.79
Price = 1.91
KLCI = 1495.20

ICAP dividend:
Amount = 0.095, subject to 25% tax
Payment Date: 7th Oct 2013
ICAP Price on 11th Oct 2013 = 2.33 (from its website)

Assume reinvesting the dividend for extra units,
Also assume the investor income tax rate is zero, meaning the 25% tax will be returned
Total holding will increase by 0.095/2.33 = 4.08%,

From 20th Oct 2005 to 28th Oct 2020, that is 15.02 years.

Now we calculate the Compound Annual Growth Rate:
For NAV = (2.79*1.0408/0.99)^(1/15.02)-1= 7.43%
For Price = (1.91*1.0408/1.03)^(1/15.02)-1= 4.47%
For KLCI = (1495.20/911.69)^(1/15.02)-1= 3.35%

However, if we invest into KLCI’s 30 index counters, we receive dividend.

I have closed some of my FKLI short positions so that the curve become symmetrical. The correct matching ratio now is one FKLI to 102,000 units C9P.

Forget to mention, my current matching ratio is one FKLI (Short) to 75,000 units C9P.

I forgot to say something about HARTA-C54.
When I first picked it up on 28th Sep,
HARTA was 17.42, Volatility was 76.19% and HARTA-C54 was 0.08,

Now,
HARTA is 19.04, already up 9.3%,
HARTA-C54 is 0.175, already up 119%,
Volatility is 69.23%, drop about 7%,

As:
1) The remaining life is shorter,
2) Volatility also drop significantly,

Therefore fair value also drop significantly,
Then some more HARTA-C54 market price also has shot up a lot,

So please take note that the fair value is now lower than market price.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-10-20-story-h1534737887-New_Call_Warrants_on_Glove_Kings_HARTA_C62_SUPERMX_C1M_and_TOPGLOV_C96.jsp

New TOPGLOV Call Warrant to be listed tomorrow.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-10-20-story-h1534737887-New_Call_Warrants_on_Glove_Kings_HARTA_C62_SUPERMX_C1M_and_TOPGLOV_C96.jsp

New SUPERMX Call Warrant to be listed tomorrow.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-10-20-story-h1534737887-New_Call_Warrants_on_Glove_Kings_HARTA_C62_SUPERMX_C1M_and_TOPGLOV_C96.jsp

New Harta Call Warrant to be listed tomorrow.

johoran

KMLOONG,
Market Cap: 1.3B
Oil Palm: 15,000 Ha
FFB Produced: 260,000 mt (Annual Report 2020)

SWKPLNT
Market Cap: 0.5B
Oil Palm: 35,000 Ha
FFB Produced: 280,000 mt (Last Year), This Year 9 months already 258,000 mt

At this moment,
KOSSAN=7.500, up 3.73% compare to 7.230 on 11.10.2020
C18=0.165, up 17.9%,

Now, the fair value of C18 = 0.1682, already not so much higher than market price.

You might want to decide further action, keep it or swap to mother share, or none of them.

https://www.hoadley.net/options/binomialtree.aspx?tree=B&warrant=Y

lai81533,

You can verify my calculation with the above calculator,
The maximum steps is 150.

I try with KOSSAN-C18,
Input 164 days to expiry, i.e. calculate from yesterday, fair value was 0.1537, same to my 200 steps calculation of 0.1537, see the screenshot in this post.
If you input 163 days, meaning calculate today, fair value is 0.1532.


My spreadsheet is for educational purpose,
I don't want to be blamed if some one lose money using my spreadsheet.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-10-11-story-h1534585086-Call_Warrants_on_Four_Heavenly_Glove_Kings_My_Pick_is_KOSSAN_C18_11_10_.jsp

KOSSAN's Installed capacity is 32 billion pcs, divided by market cap, we get 1.7 pc/RM.

For HARTA, SUPERMX and TOPGLOV, they are 0.7, 1.0 and 1.2 pc/RM.

Apart from cancellation, the treasury shares can be:
1) Distributed to shareholder as dividend, kind of a mini bonus issue, creating unnecessary odd lot, in this case I think it imply that the company is in tight cash flow, not enough cash to pay cash dividend.
2) Sold back to the market, in this case I think it imply that the company need money.

CBIP decided to cancel the treasury shares, so I think it is meaning their cash flow is good.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/content/advertise/bulls-bears-and-dolphins

Don't like to buy call warrants?
What about acting like an insurance company and selling a PUT OPTION to the bank?
If interested, read the above article about Bull Equity-Linked Investment.
You get the option premium in the form of very high FD interest.

However, you still need Binomial Model to do the evaluation.

Look at the screen shot at the top of this post,
Date 04.10.2020 (Sunday),
HARTA = 17.50
HARTA-C52 = 0.230, Fair Value / Market Price, FV/MP = 121.6%
HARTA-C54 = 0.085, Fair Value / Market Price, FV/MP = 143.4%

Today 06.10.2020
HARTA = 17.02, already drop 0.48
HARTA-C52 = 0.215, went down 0.015, now FV/MP = 118.4%
HARTA-C54 = 0.009, went up 0.005, now FV/MP = 121.2%

Look at the changes, I should sell C54 and buy C52 today, reasons:
1) Their FV/MP, 118.4% and 121.2% are now closing,
2) Who know tomorrow their FV/MP may be far apart again, what I mean C54's FV/MP may go back to 140% level, to be safe I should sell C54 and buy C52 today.
3) If tomorrow C54 really go back to 140% level, then I sell C52 and buy back C54.

OK, look at things this way.

When you buy insurance, you pay insurance premium, and we can check the "Claim Ratio" from bank negara website, if I am not mistaken the "Claim Ratio" is normally around 60%, meaning 60% of the premium go back to the policy holders in claims, 40% go to the insurance companies operating costs and profit.

Now come back to Stock Investment, let say you want to invest 100K in HARTA, but I can actually invest 20K in HARTA-C54, and I keep 80K in Fixed Deposit.

If one week later, unfortunately HARTA drop 50%:
1) You lost 50K,
2) I lost 20K only.

To me, it is simple, I do calculation, I can make better decision either to buy the mother share or to buy any call warrant of it. May be now I should buy HARTA-C54, but next week may be I should sell off HARTA-C54 and buy HARTA mother share.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/gambler/2020-10-04-story-h1514448168-Update_on_Call_Warrants_on_Four_Heavenly_Glove_Kings.jsp

Update, for your information.

Morpheus61,

No harm to write to them, let us see how they answer you.
However, please accept the reality that the authority wanted to promote structured warrants by waiving the 1% stamp duty. Anyway, we respect different opinions.

Yesterday I bought Oct / Nov Spread, so all my Short Spread Oct / Dec now become Short Spread Nov / Dec.

If you intend to trade short term, say buy today and sell within a week, then fair value calculation is not very important, because the issuer will most probably maintain the same pattern of market making, you will be buying expensive and selling expensive too.

But if we don't mind to buy and keep until cash settlement, then fair value calculation is very important.

Smart2Win，

If a structured warrant's expiry is on 30th Sept, the settlement value is the volume weighted average price (VWAP) calculated from 5 trading days before the expiry, i.e. 23rd, 24th, 25th, 28th and 29th Sept.

Candy3147,

Refer back to my earlier post on HARTA-C52,
That time HARTA=14.01, HARTA-C43=0.52, the fair value=0.3019, gearing=1.92

Because the gearing is low, HARTA-C43 will not move up or down very fast compare to mother share,

Now, HARTA=17.50, HARTA-C43=0.68buy/0.73sell, the fair value=0.4874.

After reading my posts, you can learn further from youtube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJls_RgTniw&index=4&list=PL4108D90CA93915EB

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WGDWAF7CGY&t=70s

Correction: then HARTA-C54 fair value will increase further.

Morpheus61,

You can always write to Bursa on what you want the IB to do, but up to Bursa whether they want to entertain you or not.

There are document and announcements which you can read from Bursa website, but again I don't know whether that meet your expectation or not.

For me it is simple, when I calculate and found it cheap, then I buy and am prepared to keep it until expiry, of course after that if I found it I should sell, even at a loss, I will sell.

IBs surely are allowed to buy mother share to hedge against the CW that they issue.