1) ASB and ASB2 maximum investment increased from 200K to 300K.
2) ASM additional 5 billion units.
3) EPF voluntary contribution increased from 60K to 100K.

All the above happened recently.

I guess big portion of cash will be invested in MAYBANK.

For those who bought at an average below RM1.90, privatization is attractive.

loneranger,
Look at different angle, may be higher chance for privatization.

Where got profit go up so much?
Look at Pre-Tax profit, up only 2.7%, even lower than inflation rate.
The Profit after tax go up due to Cukai makmur.

Haha....Because someone pump up at Closing, so I hope to sell in the evening and buy back the next trading day morning.

Haha......I Q sell at 5.69,
Will try every evening.

calvintaneng，

Depreciation is not a concern, as the profit is already net of depreciation.
1) Rental yield for a landed property may be is only 2%.
2) Rental yield for a condo may be higher at 4%.
3) Rental yield for a car may be higher than 20%.

prudentinvestor,

The dividend (in units) were already added to ASB unitholders account on 1st January.
Maybe ASB has to standby cash in case many unitholders want to redeem their units before Hari Raya.

One major reason for switching is Yesterday I read MAYBANK announcement that ASB sold 94.9m shares on 6th March.

Sold all my MAYBANK and switched to RHBBANK.

Sold all my MAYBANK and switched to RHBBANK.

Look at Philip's portfolio, I explore YINSON-WA.
1) Check YINSON target prices here in i3.
2) Calculate YINSON historical volatility.
3) Check YINSON dividend yield.
4) Use 200 steps Binomial Method to calculate YINSON-WA fair value.

Then I bought some YINSON-WA at 0.665 before lunch just now.

Fund managers in general is not keen to pay dividend or share buy back.
Because in both cases, there would be a certain amount of money flowing out from the funds.
The fund NAV would reduce and of course management fees would also reduce.

ICAP has so far paid dividend for 2 times:
1) To avoid tax credits burnt.
2) To help out shareholders affected by Covid.

If we want to receive good dividend, better invest in other companies which the management remunerations would not be affected by dividend payout.

........if the company declares a $1 dividend with an option to reinvest that $1 into shares at market price, which would you choose? If the latter, this is equivalent to the company buying back its own shares, which is what you would be doing, by reinvesting.........

dumbMoney,
I refer to your above statement, I assume you are talking about DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan)
My opinion:
1) If all shareholders choose to receive Cash and refuse to reinvest / exercise DRIP, that is Cash Dividend, a certain amount of Cash flow out from the company.
2) If all shareholders choose to exercise DRIP, then it is just a mini scale of bonus issue, there is no Cash flow out from the company.

prudentinvestor,

Correct, that is why even though HLFG is better in term of valuation,
MAYBANK is still my better alternative.

Anyway, I do not expect MAYBANK could give me high return,
I will be happy if I could get around 6% in return.

Speakup,

These kind of talks by the government, will chase away foreign funds.

Why is INSAS-WC trading at a price much higher than Fair Value?
My understanding is the speculators believe that:
1) INSAS has chance to shoot through the Roof.
2) Most probably INSAS would remain undervalued.

Therefore they might as well pay a small amount on INSAS-WC, to bet for the best, just like buy 4D.

i3lurker

I input:
1) INSAS = 0.77
2) Dividend 2.5 sen x 3 for the next 3 years
3) Interest Rate = 5%

Then if :
4a) INSAS Volatility = 15%, WC fair value = 4.40 sen
4b) INSAS Volatility = 20%, WC fair value = 6.67 sen
4c) INSAS Volatility = 30%, WC fair value = 11.58 sen

I checked INSAS's 90 days historical Volatility, it was around 15% only.
My opinion, INSAS-WC is expensive.

Price = 0.77
Market Cap = 0.77*663.02 = 511m
Total Liabilities = 516m
Bank Deposits + Cash = 752.4 + 153.9 = 906m

Assuming all assets (except 537m INARI shares and bank Deposits/Cash) are worthless,
EV for INARI shares = 511 + 516 - 906 = 121m

EV / INARI shares = 121 / 537 = RM0.225 / INARI share.
Very Funny, Not even 10% of INARI market price.
Too Good to be true.

@joerakmo,
The market price for Sabah oil palm estate is around 80K / ha.
Can refer to a few transactions announced in bursamalaysia.com,
For example KIMLOONG bought at 80K.

@dumpMoney
I also think 2.50 is acceptable for ICAP.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/savemalaysia/2023-01-04-story-h-301980358-Undervalued_small_and_medium_cap_plantation_firms_potential_M_A_targets

Privatisation, let see ICAP or HSPLANT go private / take-over first.

In the above article, Maybank IB said a notable privatisation candidate is Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd, as it trades at an attractive EV of RM33,255 per planted hectare, a P/BV of 0.81 times, and with net cash of 54 sen per share.

In investing we must 以小人之心度君子之腹，meaning we must use bad mindset to judge good person.

HAPSENG boss is too far richer, less chance to swindle money from HSPLANT.

If a counter is liquid, many investment banks would produce analysis reports on it.
I could not find any report on ICAP here in i3.

Sorry Boss,
The DY=(6.08*90%+3.14)/160=5.4%,
as 3.14 sen is non-taxable / tax exempt.

9.22*90%/160=5.2%

Every sen counts.

This morning I bought back some MAYBANK for the reasons:

1) MAYBANK is the top weight of ASB, should be very safe and stable.

2) I trade index call warrants and index future, Risk Free Interest Rate is one of the factor that detect their fair value. Therefore I need kind of "fixed income" to back up them. Bank FD is low, REIT I dun like, I think MAYBANK can be a better choice.

I was the very rare one lost money in MAYBANK lor.

HSPLANT dropped to 1.88 on 19th Jan,
The next day, I sold all my MAYBANK at a loss, and managed to get HSPLANT at 1.90, now it is 1.96.

Anyway, I still like MAYBANK for the reasons:

1) The DRIP is less now, only 0.145 for 2022, Cash Dividend Yield = 0.435 / 8.71 = 5%, it is Good.

2) ASB is for Bumi, for those Non-bumi who are not very good in picking stocks, we can just copy ASB portfolio. Read 2021 Annual Report, its top 5 weights MAYBANK, SIMEPLT, SIME, TENAGA and AXIATA, add up already 40% of ASB portfolio. Easy to copy, MAYBANK weight in ASB was 21.51%, what we need to do, 21.51%*100%/40%= 53.78%, do the same for the other 4 weights. OK liao.

If you invest for long term, say for retirement, I think odd lot is not a big problem.
After all, the biggest odd lot at anytime is only 99 units, or about RM865, OK lah.

My consideration:
1) High much the discount is?
2) Is it enough to cover the RM10 Revenue Stamp?

The latest DRIP issue price was RM8.38,
Check the market price on 22.09.2022 was RM8.71,
The discount was 8.71 - 8.38 = 0.33,
Revenue stamp / Discount = 10.00 / 0.33 = 30 units,

If we hold only 3600 units Maybank.
Our entitlement = 3600 * 0.07 / 8.38 = 30 units.
Better take Cash.

Anyway, Maybank announced on 13.10.2022 that the take up rate for latest DRIP was 78%.

For calendar year 2012,
Total net Dividend: Cash 0.06 + DRIP 0.45
Forget about the DRIP, DY was less than 1%.

For calendar year 2022.
Total Dividend: Cash 0.435 + DRIP 0.145
Forget about the DRIP, DY now is 0.435 / 8.74 = 5%

Significant improvement, time to invest MAYBANK now.

Regarding DRIP,
1) If you insist it is Dividend, then it is followed by a mini scale of Right Issue, at the end you do not receive Cash.
2) Or you can treat it as mini scale of Bonus Issue, you receive no Cash.
3) If you think that you can sell off the extra units from DRIP, then what is the difference from mini scale of Bonus, you also sell off the extra bonus units.

My Simple Calculation:

KLCI's Dividend Yield is now about 4%,

If your annual expenses is 100K,
When you have an investment portfolio = 100K / 4% = 2.5m.
You can retire immediately, as I believe Dividend will grow faster than inflation.

If you really want to retire badly, then include EPF into the calculation.

I like HSPLANT because it has huge pile of cash and 60% dividend policy.

Also, HAPSENG big boss is very rich, I think less likely swindle money from HSPLANT.

It is also relatively transparent compare to other mid and small cap planters, e.g. disclose numbers like the cost of production.

10 years ago, on 31.12.2012,
HSPLANT Planted Area EV / ha RM64K

Today,
HSPLANT Planted Area EV / ha is only RM39K

Market price for Oil Palm Estate in Sabah is around RM80K.

Go back to same example,
Before DRIP, you have 12000*8.80=105,600,
After DRIP, you have the same value of 105,600
The only difference is you now have 16800*6.29.
So where is the dividend?
And because no money flow out, you do not know the company healthy or not.

Of course I still say the DY is only 4.9%.
If we are so simple minded, any company can trick us by declaring high dividend and DRIP with huge discount,
and at the end the company does not need to fork out any money.

Then why did you say "would be RM42,240 richer than before"?
Are you OK or not?

After getting your 4800 units, the price would still be RM8.80?
Why not they buy at RM8.80 before the ex-date?

Now, my turn to ask you back the same question,,
What did you study in university?

Come on,
You have now 16800 units, but still the same 0.00010% ownership,
You sell off the 4800 units, your ownership become 0.00007%,
So you are actually disposing part of your ownership for cash.
Is this called dividend?
To me, dividend is the cash that I receive from the company, without reducing / affecting my ownership.

We look at DY because we want to know the company is in good health or not?
We want to know if the company are able and ready to pay out cash to shareholders?

But in the above example, we do not receive Cash and the company do not pay out Cash.
May be I have mistaken, I should have said DRIP is kind of mini bonus issue.

Haha....you people really think that I do not know I could opt for cash instead of DRIP?

Let say Maybank announce RM1.00 interim and final RM1.00 dividend for this calendar year 2023,
and say 100% eligible for DRIP at issue price RM5.00,

According to your understanding, the DY = 2.00/8.80 = 22.7%,
But for my calculation, this year DY = 0/8.80 = 0%.

Now, say I have 12,000 units Maybank or in percentage = 12,000 / 11,885,000,000 = 0.0001%,
My entitlement = 12000*2.00/5.00 = 4800 units, or 40%,
As there is huge discount, almost everyone would opt for DRIP,
Meaning everyone get extra 40% units, and my ownership in maybank is still = 0.0001%,

So what actually do I get?

The Dividend Yield of Maybank should be calculated from the cash dividend only.
The portion that eligible for DRIP actually is not dividend, but kind of Right Issue.

For the last 2 dividend payment, the Cash and Drip dividend are 0.225+0.075 and 0.210+0.07,
Most people just conveniently said the Dividend Yield = (0.3+0.28) / 8.80 = 6.6%,
For me, I take only the Cash Dividend for Calculation, DY = (0.225+0.21) / 8.80 = 4.9%,

My way of calculation, show that Maybank DY has increase tremendously,
Therefore, I have recently bought Maybank.

Not liquid at all.
Right now at 10.05AM,
Bid #1: 100 at 1.96
Bid #2: 23 at 1.94
Bid #3: 20 at 1.93
Ask#1: 17 at 2.00
Ask#2: 50 at 2.01
Ask#3: 10 at 2.02

Bid and Ask are 4 sen apart.
Already one hour, not traded yet.
How to buy 1000 small lots?

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/staticfile/view/485420

Today KENANGA maintain giving target price 2.50 to HSPLANT.

Let say on 19.10.2005,
If a person is to invest for retirement survival purpose,
Most probably he would go for banks, as all sectors/businesses deal with banks.
Meaning their performance should be the average of all.
For safer, he would select MAYBANK, as ASB is the major shareholder,

Check Yahoo Finance, the adjusted price of MAYBANK on 19.10.2005 was 2.92,
Therefore CAGR from 19.10.2005 to 05.01.2023 is 6.60%.

Check from ICAP website,
Both adjusted NAV and Price on 19.10.2005 are 0.91.
And NAV and Price on 05.01.2023 are 3.34 and 1.97.
Therefore CAGR for NAV and Price are 7.85% and 4.59% respectively.

However, a retiree need to withdraw money periodically,
Therefore if he invest in ICAP, price is more relevant compare to NAV.
Obviously MAYBANK is a better choice for him compare to ICAP.

If that guy invest PBBANK or HLFG instead of MAYBANK on 19.10.2005,
Then the CAGR are more than 11%.

For more than 10 over years, the benchmark they used for comparison was KLCI.
But I found that they now have changed the benchmark to MSCI Malaysia.
I did my calculation, and found that the difference in CAGR is about 0.7%.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/savemalaysia/2023-01-04-story-h-301980358-Undervalued_small_and_medium_cap_plantation_firms_potential_M_A_targets

In the above article, Maybank IB said a notable privatisation candidate is Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd, as it trades at an attractive EV of RM33,255 per planted hectare, a P/BV of 0.81 times, and with net cash of 54 sen per share.
_______________________________________________________________________

1) Guess the possible offer prices and EV/ha.
HSPLANT was listed in 2007, the retail and institutional IPO prices were RM2.65 and RM3.05.
Let say HAPSENG now offer to buy back at RM3.05,
Then the EV/ha = (3.05*799.69m +501m - 642m) / 35434ha = RM64900/ha,
Still 19% cheaper than the market price of RM80000/ha in Sabah.
However, the offer price RM3.05 is already 58% higher than market price of RM1.93.
Retail investors should welcome such offer.
_______________________________________________________________________

2) HAPSENG afford to offer so or not?
They are now holding 556m HSPLANT shares,
Meaning there are only = 799.69m- 556m = 243.69m shares not owned by HAPSENG.
Therefore the amount required = 3.05*243.69m = 743m
Look at HAPSENG latest balance sheet, they have about 3000m cash and money market.
HAPSENG definitely can afford to privatize HSPLANT.
Then HSPLANT has cash and money market of 499m.
After fork out 743m, then get back whole lot of 499m, the net flow out is only 244m.
244m is chicken feed for HAPSENG.

KMLOONG is more like a palm oil mills company than a plantation company.

It produce only about 28000mT FFB a month.
28000mT / 1780m market cap = 16mT/million.
Very low compare to other plantation companies.

Now, Let say HAPSENG wants to take HSPLANT private or sell it off.

1) At market price, EV / ha = RM80000,
Then the share price = (0.08*35434+642-501)/799.69 = RM3.72 / share.

2) At cheaper price, EV / ha = RM70000,
Then the share price = (0.07*35434+642-501)/799.69 = RM3.28 / share.

3) At a very cheaper price, EV / ha = RM60000, (I think very unlikely that cheap)
Then the share price = (0.06*35434+642-501)/799.69 = RM2.83 / share.

Quarterly Report: 31st December 2012:
Share Qty: 799.98m
Share Price: RM2.82
Market Cap: 2256m

Total Liability: 228m

Total Current Asset: 196m

Enterprise Value (EV) for Oil Palm Planted Area: =2256 + 228 - 196 = 2288m
Total Oil Palm Planted Area: 35551ha
EV per ha: RM64358 per ha
________________________________________________________________________________

Now, 10 Years Later:

Latest Quarterly Report: 30th September 2022:
Share Qty: 799.69m
Share Price: RM1.86
Market Cap: 1487m

Total Liability: 501m

Total Current Asset: 684m
Biological Asset: 42m
Net Total Current Asset: 684 - 42 = 642m

Enterprise Value (EV) for Oil Palm Planted Area: =1487 + 501 - 642 = 1346m
Total Oil Palm Planted Area: 35434ha
EV per ha: RM37986 per ha
________________________________________________________________________________

Discussion:
1) In 10 years time, the EV / ha reduced 59% from RM64358 to RM37986.
2) The market price (EV / ha) for Sabah Oil Palm is around RM80000.
3) Base on EV calculation, HSPLANT is very cheap.
4) The FFB production for Year 2012 is 665812mT.
5) Now, the current 12 months FFB production is 572351mT.
6) HSPLANT said the FFB production for Year 2023 would be 670000mT.
7) However, an analyst is less optimistic, and predicted 630000mT.
8) HSPLANT has 60% Dividend Policy, YTD, the EPS is 23.94sen,
9) Already paid 5sen Dividend, Can expect at least 23.94*0.6-5 = 9.36sen.

Uncle,
Did you previously think CPO could stay at 5 or 6K for many years?

Sorry, it is written in Chinese.
I copy from my facebook posting.

冷眼大师在他的书“股票投资正道”的“股票伴我老”中提到。。。
时间点应该是2011年。。。

他说以1.00的股价买入8000股CEPAT。。。
既是花8000就能间接拥有了一英亩油棕园。。。
他是直接把公司市值除于25000英亩油棕园而算出8000的。。。
而当时油棕园的市价是一英亩20000。。。
所以买CEPAT股票更划算。。。

11年过去了。。。
现在CEPAT的股价是0.70。。。
但是它曾经有发“2给1”的红股。。。
所以当年的1.00其实是等于现在的0.667。。。
11年间，股价从0.667涨至0.70，惨不忍睹。。。
再加上一点点的股息。。。
每年的总回酬率才三点多巴仙。。。

现在沙巴油棕园的市价是每公顷80000，等于一英亩约32000。。。
现在马后炮，当年买油棕园比买CEPAT更划算。。。

那么，现在应该买CEPAT股票或者直接买油棕园呢？？？
这些年来，CEPAT的财务表是更好看了。。。
单单Current Assets就已经高过Total Liabilities。。。
而且公司又多了12MW Biomass和4MWBiogas发电。。。
签有合约卖电给沙巴电力公司。。。
这是稳定收入，尤其当棕油价钱低迷时更重要。。。

其实，我们不应该直接把公司市值除于公司油棕园的。。。
应该先算，
市值+Total Liabilities - Current Assets - 发电厂等等。。。
才来除于公司的油棕园。。。
那就算到每公顷16652或每英亩6739。。。

11年前，每英亩8000对20000。。。
现在是每英亩6739对32000。。。
看起来CEPAT是更诱人了。。。

冷眼大师是无牌的，我也是无牌的。。。
都不能给买卖建议。。。
大家买卖之前先问股票证卷行和分析师的意见。。。
买卖自负。。。