fair value 1.20

very strong earning, if customers do not default on the contracts,

backed by 21 billion contract

based on 300 mil profit, 6 bil shares, EPS is 5 sen

fair value should be 50 sen based on 10 times PER

Short joh

How about Zelan ?

CharlesT I have done some fengshui calculation for you, you will be super Ong this year if you add a Golden Pyramid to your profile


https://ezbuy.my/product/51000443474159.html?gclid=Cj0KCQiAjszhBRDgARIsAH8Kgve5lcbEX3gqsLVL3ByxSyQg-yXp5XzwAC4X_7OtT7iaW2_5CeGLAR0aAi_ZEALw_wcB

at first I was thinking of just using it for few days for fun

but sifu CharlesT told me that since I changed to your photo, my fortune has taken a turn for the better. So he advised me to hold on to it instead of buying a Golden Pyramid

hope you don't mind

don't be so sure that QL trades at 50 times PER because it is exceptional (a City on the Hill)

the same thing happens to Berjaya Land before

few years ago, BJ Land traded at about 70 sen despite poor earnings and lousy fundamentals

this is because BJ Corp has pledge BJ Land shares to bank as collateral

however, due to changes in circumstances, BJ Land price has melted down (maybe they don't need the artificial value anymore)

the same is obviously happening to QL and if I am not wrong, Hap Seng (40 times PER if strips out revaluation gain that happens every year)

unlike BJ Land, in QL and Hap Seng's case, the propping up of price might not be related to loan collaterals. I think it is more to inflate the wealth of the controlling shareholders

how long can this go on we don't know. But one thing for sure is that there is an element of artificiality in it

no matter how strong a shareholder is (with the financial muscle to maintain the price), it cannot fight the market. When one day shit hits the fan (a crisis of 1997 magnitude, or US China conflicts, etc), it might collapse like a house of cards, and never recover, and your wealth built over 20 years evaporates overnight

I am not saying that it is probable, but it is definitely possible

especially if you are holding super long term, which naturally captures all the statistical probabilities

if you are indeed holding 2 mil QL now, might as well sell them, take the RM13 mil cash and go tour the world

as for public bank and top gloves, that is a different story. Their valuation is not so artificial, no harm keeping. Given some time, maybe they will grow another 10 times, 20 times. Who knows ?

saifu still holding

I sold already yesterday

scare saifu attack

today no curry mee, eat sotong mee (sodomy)

January 3, 2019

MBM Resources (MBM MK)
All pistons go!

Share Price MYR 2.26
12m Price Target MYR 4.50 (+99%)
Previous Price Target MYR 4.18

1. Perodua trifecta

MBM is the best exposure to Perodua, benefitting as a (i) 22.6%
shareholder of Perodua, (ii) dealer for Perodua cars, and (iii) auto parts
supplier. Imputing a sales boost from Perodua’s new Aruz model, we raise
FY19/20 net profit forecasts by 8%/6% respectively. We also raise our TP
to MYR4.50 (+8%), rolling forward valuations to FY20 on unchanged 10x
PER peg. MBM is our second favourite auto stock after UMWH. BUY.

2. A boost on FY19/20 earnings from Perodua Aruz

We now include contribution from the SUV Aruz model (2k/1.5k units
monthly for FY19/20 vs Perodua’s target of 2.5k units monthly) into our
earnings model. Partially offset by expectation for lower sales of the
other models (i.e. Myvi, Bezza and Alza – see Fig. 2 for our revised
assumptions), we raise MBM’s FY19/20 earnings forecasts by 8%/6%
respectively. Eyes will be on the booking and delivery of this model, to
be revealed frequently in the next few months. Consistent
outperformance could present further upside to our earnings forecasts.

3. Strong results will not end in 3Q18

Perodua has already achieved its 2018 sales target of 209k units in 11M18
and is poised to exceed our 220k-unit (+7% YoY) assumption by 3-5%; for
this, we expect MBM to report further sequential earnings growth in
4Q18 from already a solid quarter in 3Q18. This would help MBM close
the year on a new high; beating its 10-year high of MYR142m net profit in
2010. Into 2019, the introduction of the new Perodua Aruz and Toyota
Vios and Yaris models should also offer further opportunities for MBM’s
alloy-wheel plant; recall that the new Toyota Rush, launched in Oct
2018, is a CKD model rolling out of Perodua’s plant. These factors should
help MBM climb a step further in 2019 as well.

4. Underpriced at 5x CY19 PER currently

Despite recent climb in share price (+17% in the last one month), MBM is
still very much undervalued; its 22.6% effective stake in Perodua alone is
worth ~MYR2.2b (based on 13x FY19 PER to our revised Perodua earnings
of MYR737m in FY19), 2.5x of MBM’s current market cap.

Maybank upgrades earning projection for MBM (3 January 2019)

FYE Dec (MYR m) FY18E FY19E FY20E

Core net profit 150 177 176

Core EPS (sen) 38.5 45.2 45.0

What ? 32% gain one week into the new year ????

There is some confusion caused by convertibility

I think the warrants can only be exercise by year 3

Not expire by year 3


Posted by upsidedown119 > Jan 2, 2019 12:11 PM | Report Abuse

There must have been a mistake. If the maturity date is 25/12/2023, then the exercise/conversion period should be 5 years. Management need to clarify which is correct.

High beta stock

When sentiment is positive it rebound very fast

You downgrade when it was 80 Sen, I say you are genius

Downgrade now when it is 16 Sen ?

Value the company based on 2 times PE

Does that make sense ？


Lower target price to RM0.10 (from RM0.41). Our SOTP target price implies 2x P/E and 0.1x 2019F P/B, which is at a discount to Yinson’s 18x forward P/E.

Be careful, they said the Russian contracts are all faked ones


diehardunited
154 posts
Posted by diehardunited > Jan 7, 2019 08:03 PM | Report Abuse

Ignore this lousy scam stock!

my TOP PICK is even more interesting with 150% upside for this year!!!

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/winners/189081.jsp

wah excellent info. Thank you Tan KW !!!!

I asked people to buy in March

after that share price went down I got scolded

so chum.... sigh..

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/149288.jsp

CharlesT why so free ?

Morning until evening hang around i3

I love fengshui

He asked me buy curry mee so yummy

Eh don't bully my Friend CharlesT

CharlesT apart from mnrb, what else good to buy ?

Bought some this morning

I also curious why uob downgrade

It would be nice if somebody can fish out the report and put it here

Be careful

Don't curry mee curry mee later become sotong mee (sodomy)

Ok lah, I remove my comments, to Honour my friends CharlesT and qqq3

go relax by the beach ? (cute shark)


Silent 88888 sold all good profit can call it a day off liao
go relaks
07/01/2019 10:59

seriously ? hng33 ? OMG ....

seriously ? (LOL)

Posted by Investor 999 > Jan 7, 2019 10:50 AM | Report Abuse

Added 2 mil shares and wait for UNCLE to goreng to 1.00 .

I just don't like to be shepherded around

curry mee can go to RM1.20

but that kind of money not for me to make

bye bye uncle koon

thanks for the angpao

KYY is neither an investor nor trader

he has evolved into an operator

to qualify as investors instead of traders, investing horizon is not the key determining factor

a trader buy, and then let go, if things do not work out

an investor buy, and hold (and wait for recovery), if things do not work out

in order to "buy" and then "hold if things don't work out", you need to pick your stocks carefully

it is only applicable to stocks that face downward cycles, not structural decline (for example : buying Media Prima and hold is stupid)

managing a second liners portfolio requires a comprehensive strategy comprises many components. There are few things that you need to get it right

only then you can call yourself an investor


Posted by qqq3 > Jan 7, 2019 08:46 AM | Report Abuse

Icon8888 > Jan 7, 2019 08:43 AM | Report Abuse

Last time I called myself value trader. However, after recently spending time reading Gurus' books , I am no more shy of calling myself "investors
===========


good for u....next stage just call yourself a trader la.....turnover every 6 months still trading mah.......

Last time I called myself value trader. However, after recently spending time reading Gurus' books , I am no more shy of calling myself "investors". According to the books I read, there are many very famous Western investors that operate the same way like us in i3 that punt second liners. They all proudly called themselves investors.

For example : John Neff

he is very much like many of us here in i3

contrarian, value based, churned his portfolio every now now then to keep it "fresh and relevant" (a term I like very much that I learn from qqq3)

that is why I dare to object when people like you who invest in "safe companies" condemns us for gambling

we are not gamblers, you will be surprised how many famous and successful investment gurus operate exactly like what many of us in i3 involved in second liners

We don't question your strategy of investing in established companies. I don't see anything wrong, even if a bit slow

We just want you to know that our small and mid caps also work well over Long run

I typically suffered paper loss of 20% to 30% in times like 2001 and 2008 (1997 was Super nasty). Then when market normalised , due to depressed valuation , the small and mid caps will bounced back with a vengeance. It also provides opportunities for you to restructure portfolio by switching to better quality ones. If you play your cards right (which is not difficult as I have done that few times), the bounce back will be more than the paper loss previous year

That is how we roll and grow over the years to become big (you not the only one that can do it)

All I am saying is that please don't call our style gambling just because our portfolio shrinks more than you in a bear year . You need to understand us better before jumping into conclusion

I am doing exactly that by reading through your thread. A lot of useful concepts and comments .

Not only you, we did well over long run too

We just want you to know your superiority complex is misplaced

One year outperformance does not make you warren Buffett

This 3iii talks like warren Buffett

Check his portfolio then realise it is warrant buffalo

Let us discuss the charts (click the link above)

3iii outperformed us this year not because his blue chips had done well, they are mostly flattish. On the other hand, 2018 was bad for us small and mid cap investors (higher volatility)

Because of the above, 3iii claims that his investment strategy is superior and is dismissive of our method

But in past three years most of us did better than him

It is true we suffer paper loss this year, but small and mid caps are now trading at such depressed level that they will comfortably bounce back when market normalised (pray it happens this year)

Then we are ahead of him again

If that happens, we will be ahead of him in 3 of the 4 years

If that is the case, how can his method be more superior than us ?

3iii's rhetoric is powerful, but real life performance showed otherwise

3iii, is this your portfolio ?

http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,69819.msg1560483.html#msg1560483

Disagree.

Beating the market makes you feel good but has no tangible benefit (for non fund managers)

Absolute return is the only thing that matters because it has real positive impact on your net worth

In other words, mind our own business, don’t let your buy and sell decisions been influenced by what others do


Posted by 3iii > Oct 20, 2018 10:42 AM | Report Abuse

Your goal in investing is not to achieve average market return but to be better than that.

Finally finished reading one page

Nothing much to disagree

The only difference between him and me is that I am a small / mid cap junkies while he goes for established companies

Mr Long's method might work, but not the only way to do it

many prominent investors do not hold long term (they churn their portfolio regularly) but still can be very successful

I am writing an article based on the books I read recently (written by those famous investors)

you start every discussion with confrontation

that is why I said you are negative


Posted by i3lurker > Jan 5, 2019 10:02 AM | Report Abuse

you can call it negative again....but you had been here how long and yet dun understand qqq3's character?

and that's because you dun respect him at all. He is a short term trader who respects a good fundamental play. Let him enjoy himself. To each his own.

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 5, 2019 09:49 AM | Report Abuse
qqq3 I am confused. You praise Mr Long method but refer us to an article that discourage long term hold.

qqq3 I am confused. You praise Mr Long method but refer us to an article that discourage long term hold.

Long term hold of companies with moat not the only way to make it in bursa

I have busy reading lately. John Neff , Joel Greenblatt, Seth Klarman (margin of safety) , David dreman etc all churn their portfolio every few years (some even happy to let go after few months when profitable)

So it is not true that moat based Buffett style super Long term investing is the only way to do it

Don't believe me ? Read their books

Long term hold of companies with moat not the only way to make it in bursa

I have busy reading lately. John Neff , Joel Greenblatt, Seth Klarman (margin of safety) , David dreman etc all Chuen their portfolio every few years (some even happy to let go after few months when profitable)

So it is not true that moat based Buffett style super Long term investing is the only way to do it

Don't believe me ? Read their books

QL earnings grew from 125 mil in 2009 to 250 mil in 2018

A growth of 100% over 9 years

But market cap expanded by 400% (according to yahoo chart, it went up from 1.6 to current 6.7)

Value creation for shareholders not so much by earnings improvement but more on PE multiple expansion

Same thing happen to TOP glove , vitrox, prestariang (before collapse) JobStreet