Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-12 15:28 | Report Abuse

haha.............icon need to fight many experts, tough lah. he just know insider news lah, goring this and tht only. what crack speed margin, he totally blank

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-12 15:38 | Report Abuse

surprising no TP this time, ICON takut. hehehehe

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 15:51 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by cheoky > 2017-07-12 15:55 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan is a buy provided no drastic fluctuation of crude oil.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 15:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 16:01 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-12 16:12 | Report Abuse

Hehe. Conman? Guai Lou woh

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-07-12 16:27 | Report Abuse

sapu~

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-07-12 16:28 | Report Abuse

@
ken HRC is not red chips.. The board of director, 4 Malaysian, 2 Chinaman, 1 Angmo. Management team all Malaysian, 4 Melayu, 1 Indian and 1 Chinese.

guess what?

angmo solo operation. The rest 6 ppl wait and collect money lol

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-07-12 16:29 | Report Abuse

ok i will go pump shell tonight =)

Posted by dusti > 2017-07-12 17:08 | Report Abuse

Interesting discussions already exist on Hengyuan forum.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 17:25 | Report Abuse

the bank has no worries on providing HRC 1.3 Billion...why?

the inventory is oil..its been on planet earth for billions of years..
instead depreciating (or decomposing)...it appreciated drastically on 20th century...he he

Posted by jediinkl > 2017-07-12 17:35 | Report Abuse

red cap.. mai la

Posted by eskaylien > 2017-07-12 18:42 | Report Abuse

A word of caution: Are the last two quarters' profits sustainable?

I suspect earnings were boosted by inventory profits during a period of rising crude oil prices.
The coming quarter's earnings will be crucial given it coincide with falling oil prices.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 18:53 | Report Abuse

no its not sustainable as the refining margins is increasing..

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 19:00 | Report Abuse

For a layman one can visualize like this (corrected):

with a crack spread (composite of Jet fuel, Gasoline, Fuel oil etc) margin of 9 USD/brl, with throughput turnover of 30 days, they are actually raising their Oil inventory value by 9 USD in one month's time.

meaning if you have 800 Million worth of Oil inventory (say current price is 50 USD/brl Brent), in 30 days you had increased its value to 944 Million...

Value Addition is 144M per month! 432M in a quarter..
(this is no bullshit figure, this is indeed your expected gross profit if you have not stock loss at current refinery margins)

(for professionals they can use 1 Billion worth inventory with an increased throughout by 20% to maintain the same turnover of 30 days ...and see the jackpot numbers if they like!)


This means, in a quarter (3 months), the refinery is actually increasing the value of their oil by 3 x 9 USD/brl = 27 USD/brl!!


Oil value has a bottom threshold ~ 40 USD/brl due to shale oil...
so why do you or the Bank need to worry?

Meaning even if Oil price drops by 27 USD to say 23USD/brl...you have a one time zero gross profit.. thats all.

Posted by eskaylien > 2017-07-12 19:14 | Report Abuse

probability no its not sustainable as the refining margins is increasing..
12/07/2017 18:53

Prob... Assuming it's not sustainable... it's a bit mischievous of Icon8888 to annualise Q1 2017 earnings, and come out with a headline "...1.5x PER...", isn't it?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-12 19:22 | Report Abuse

Fcf good?

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 19:29 | Report Abuse

There are only 3 options for earnings not to translate as cash (temporarily)...

its either they got stuck as receivables (1), inventory oil (2) or over enthusiasm to pay the suppliers (3)...

none of them can continuously be recurring...
you can't shut of your anus hole and keep eating continuously.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 19:32 | Report Abuse

Infact Depreciation of HRC is more than double the rate of PetronM per unit shares..it has all the reason to blast with FCF soon!

Posted by cheoky > 2017-07-12 22:27 | Report Abuse

LOLX. probability got great metaphorical and imagination skills. geng

Posted by suregain > 2017-07-12 22:50 | Report Abuse

Petron is,useless... not moving at all. Hrc beter

Posted by stockraider > 2017-07-12 23:31 | Report Abuse

WHY COMPLAIN ICON WRITE UP ?

AFTER RAIDER CAREFULLY READING ICON WRITE UP IS GOOD, IF NOT GREAT LOH..!!

ALTHOUGH WHEN COMPARE WITH PROBABILITY, PEOPLE SAY LACK DETAIL LOH, BUT RAIDER WILL SAY THIS LOH...ICON WRITE UP IS NOT COMPLICATED...HIT THE POINT LOH...!!

YES...IF U WANT TO STUDY MORE...THAN U LOOK AT PROBABLITY WRITE UP LOH..!!

BUT ANY HOW ICON ARTICLE...IT IS BUY BUY BUY AND BUY LOH...!!
NO WONDER HRC MOVE UP LOH...!!

YES PROBABILITY & RAIDER HAD BEEN HIGHLIGHTING HRC ITS UNIQUE INVESTMENT ADVANTAGE FOR MANY WEEKS...BUT DID NOT HAVE FAST SPRINT IMPACT LIKE ICON LOH...!!

ICON HAS HIS STRENGTH....RAIDER DO SALUTE LOH...!!
THATS WHY LATELY ALMOST ALL ARTICLE COME UP BY ICON ON STOCK, RAIDER IMMEDIATELY JUMP IN AND BUY AND MAKE MONIES MAH...!!

Posted by Ah Hoy Lim > 2017-07-13 00:02 | Report Abuse

buy buy in

Posted by pang72 > 2017-07-13 00:15 | Report Abuse

This low PE refinery stock is getting more and more attention.
The down side is very limited.
The upside is tremendous...

Posted by pang72 > 2017-07-13 00:16 | Report Abuse

We shall see another sky rocket performances as today...

Posted by Ricky Kiat > 2017-07-13 10:55 | Report Abuse

dumb dumb buy some. cheers....

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 11:25 | Report Abuse

ricky also buying? good....I thinking to add more or not....

Posted by radzi > 2017-07-13 11:45 | Report Abuse

I like this article. May buy.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 12:06 | Report Abuse

So P/E 1.5 is RM5.80, eps=3.86?
P/E 5=19??

Posted by stockraider > 2017-07-13 12:12 | Report Abuse

Posted by paperplane2016 > Jul 13, 2017 12:06 PM | Report Abuse

So P/E 1.5 is RM5.80, eps=3.86?
P/E 5=19??

PAPERLANE,

FINALLY UNDERSTAND HRC VERY BULLISH INVESTMENT MATRIX LOH...!!

BUT IF HRC PE = PET DAG PE 23X LEH ?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 13:56 | Report Abuse

Raider bro, I get this. But my concern is on the borrowing. It will be eating their bottom line. End up working hard for banks only.

Which is why I am more comfortable with PETRONM. But SHELL has higher potential for sure. If they succeed in pairing down borrowings.

But to be clear, its not apple to apple comparison here. If I am not wrong:

HENGYUAN-listed Refinery ONLY.
PETDAG-PURELY PETROL STATION ONLY.
PETRONM-Mix of Refinery+Petrol Station

Which why I like pteronm for Balance play. If refinery margin goes down, covered by Retail margin. If retail margin stress, sometimes refinery get better. Balance play is important. Either one might be higher risk to me.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 13:58 | Report Abuse

and P/E x23 for Petdag is similar to Consumer Sectors like AEON, etc. So the same P/E might not be applicable if my above point is correct.

Normal refinery P/E not sure how much, mixture of both that's why PetronM deserve higher P/E. example P/E 10 for mixtures, P/E 8 for pure refinery? P.E 20-25 for Pure retail?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 13:59 | Report Abuse

which Icon highlighted historical P/E 5 is average. That's why we should be conservative applying only P/E 5 for Hengyuan. which TP should be near RM18-19.00

Posted by pang72 > 2017-07-13 14:08 | Report Abuse

Conservative PE applies to HY deriving TP rm18 to rm19
HY is rm5.84 now! So..

.

Posted by pang72 > 2017-07-13 14:10 | Report Abuse

This stock is considering as Buta Money...
Ah kong Ah Mah Ah lian boy it also can Profit!!!

Posted by JN88 > 2017-07-13 14:30 | Report Abuse

Only 300million shares, with 9 billion revenue and cross 1 billion net profit. ...simply can RM10 if condition continue improve.

Posted by huat888 > 2017-07-13 14:34 | Report Abuse

At least rm30 lah

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 15:08 | Report Abuse

many sifu here liao , buying and buying

Posted by stockraider > 2017-07-13 15:15 | Report Abuse

Posted by paperplane2016 > Jul 13, 2017 01:59 PM | Report Abuse

which Icon highlighted historical P/E 5 is average. That's why we should be conservative applying only P/E 5 for Hengyuan. which TP should be near RM18-19.00

RUBBISH PE 5X....!!
THIS TYPE OF LOW PE NOT SUSTAINABLE LOH...!!

RISK FREE RATE IS 3% TO 4% LOH...!!

IF U BORROW...U CAN RATE OF 5% LOH....!!

JUST IMAGINE U JUST BORROW RM 1 MILLION AT 5%PA AND DUMP IT AT ALL HRC FOR 10 YRS..!

SO PE 5X RETURN ON RM 1M ...WILL GIVE RM 200K PA
COST OF FINANCING RM 50K PA
SO BUTA BUTA U MAKE RM 150K PA FOR NEXT 10 YRS.

THE LIKELY LOW PE FOR HRC IS ABOUT 10 TO 12X LOH...!!

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 15:15 | Report Abuse

JN88, you are one of the most stable performance guy, will you pick Hengyuan in 2018 portfolio? I guess most will.

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2017-07-13 16:37 | Report Abuse

between Hengyuan and Petronm. anyone willing to share the risks and benefits investing in them? which one is the more attractive option?

Posted by JN88 > 2017-07-13 16:51 | Report Abuse

paperplane2016: I love my Airasia so much cant let go, Hengyuan spotted by someone during February this year. But I love the shares volume.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2017-07-14 01:21 | Report Abuse

eskaylien, i agree with you.

It just doesn't add up. 自己保重！

Posted by CKCS > 2017-07-14 07:49 | Report Abuse

Worst of all, ChongJiauJau aka the "banana salesman" was very cocky before but he has since deleted all comments and his personal cocky comments. I found out also the loser named "probability" also deleted all his cocky comments entirely wiped clean!!!! WTF? so probability and ChongJiauJau is actually same dude. Both accounts erased/deleted clean all their bragging cocky comments. Now I see what kind of loser this probability is! cowardly deleted all his cocky comments...I wouldn't caught him red-handed if he didn't delete those his bragging comments!

Posted by Alex™ > 2017-12-31 19:29 | Report Abuse

Bump. Icon pro

Posted by Alex™ > 2017-12-31 19:29 | Report Abuse

Ah lian got huat.. Ckc got huat ma?

Posted by ks55 > 2017-12-31 19:39 | Report Abuse

When did Hengyuan pay dividend for the last time? 2013?
When do you expect Hengyuan to pay dividend again? 2023?

Like all Red Chips, if you still think Hengyuan is making 5 ringgit or 10 ringgit a year, and expect windfall dividend, you might as well wait for Xinquan to declare a 10 sen dividend.

Sama-sama lah, all are red chips.

Don't believe, check CAP, Maxwell, CSL, Xinquan, Xinghe, Kanger, CNOuhua, all were PE 1.5x, and all cannot afford to pay dividend.

Later on fire will break out in their factories/ refinery.

Be careful, when major shareholders start to unload, it will be like Maxwell owner selling her share at 2 sen...........

Posted by ks55 > 2017-12-31 19:42 | Report Abuse

Play safe.
Take profit now.
Let the greedy fools have their arms chop off...........

Posted by stockraider > 2018-01-01 22:06 | Report Abuse

Posted by Vince Sinclair > Jan 1, 2018 10:44 AM | Report Abuse

I refer to Felicity's articles posted on 29/12/2017, the day when Hengyuan's share price fell 9.24%. She started by "reminding" readers "not to be misled". She then confidently concluded that "Hengyuan is no Nestle, Dutch Lady, BAT. Not even Oldtown. It is not even Top Glove or Hartalega or Airasia. Hengyuan is Not near".

First, Hengyuan supplies most of its petroleum products to Shell. In the same way, how many consumers do you think will ask "eh, who's the major supplier that supplies the parts in this DYSON vacuum cleaner that we're using?" Or, "hey, which is the semiconductor company that supplies the parts on this iphone that we're using?" I guarantee less than 10% of consumers worldwide would bother to ask such questions. Yet, an investor who had the foresight to invest in SKP Resources (major supplier for DYSON) back in 2012/2013 would have made multi-fold returns on their investment. My point is, it's not necessarily companies with strong brands that will make you money in the stock market. In this respect, Felicity's "brand" talk is just shallow and superficial to be taken seriously. How many people knew SKP Resources compared to DYSON? How many people knew Foxconn compared to Apple?

Second, the present Mgmt officially took over the business on 22/12/2016. In just 1 year,. what kind of "miracle" do you expect them to produce? Did Nestle, D Lady & AirAsia become the successful companies and "safe" investments that they are today in just 1 year?
No! It took them years, if not decades. So, why be so harsh on the new Mgmt of Hengyuan?
On the high debt, please remember that the new Mgmt did not amass this debt, IN ADDITION HENGYUAN BORROW & REFINANCE THEIR SHORT TERM TRADING ADVANCES OF SHELL PARENT BEFORE THE TAKEOVER.
THUS They INHERITED it from the previous mgmt. C'mon, do you expect them to pay down this debt in just 1 year?? To divert a little, did Geely turn Volvo into a disaster after acquiring the latter?
Have you heard about how the new Proton CEO dealt with the low quality of kangkung served in Proton's cafe? Do you think these Chinese would spend hundreds of millions, even billions and let their business ventures fail?

Hengyuan's parent company in China has been in existence for close to half a decade. They are now producing Euro-6 compliant products.
In terms of technological know-how and experience in running the business, they are definitely not any inferior IN FACT BETTER IN TERMS OF COST EFFECTIVENESS compared to their Western counterparts.
In fact, the contrary is true. If not, Hengyuan won't be buying over Shell's refinery. It would be the other way around. And don't undermine the importance of technological know-how. Look at how Shale technology disrupted the whole O&G industry.

On dividends, many argue that Petron is a safer investment because it pays dividends. Really? How sustainable is their dividend payment? Petron is gonna spend USD 1.5 bil on its refinery in Msia. Hengyuan is spending RM 700M. In the case of Hengyuan, it's only a matter of time before they start paying dividend, DON FORGET HENGYUAN IS GENERATING CLOSE TO RM 1.2 BILLION FREECASHFLOW PA AND IT IS SITTING ON CASH IN THE BANK RM 900M, ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE RM 1.3 BILLION DEBT AND CAPEX REQUIREMENT RM 700M, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY REPAID IN 2018 BASING ON THEIR EXISTING CASHFLOW .

IT IS ANTICIPATED U CAN GET YOUR DIV IN LATE 2018 OR EARLY 2019, WITH WHISPER AMOUNT OF PAYOUT RM 0.40 PER SHARE LOH...!!
THIS DIV WILL BE INCREASING TO EVENTUALLY RM 1.00 PER SHARE IN 3 YRS TIME LOH...!!