Recent tax increase for cutting hill timber will impact Taann, Wtk and Jtiasa's bottom line because these are mixed plantation counters with both palm oil and log productions.
JTiasa will be less impacted as it has more oil palm buffer.
A purer play on palm oil would be RSawit which is owned by JTiasa.
In any case bad news bringing down these 3 counters into oversold zone also present bargain bottom fishing opportunities.
This name sounds like the one among top stock pickers, if I am not wrong?
Well,
Calvin is no stock God. Very mortal as I overslept like a baby this morning.
Tell you the secret.
The Bible says, if you see rain clouds gather you can expect a coming shower.
So all the factors are in place for an oil palm bull run soon:
FGV spearheading into China market big time. Wilmar garnered 51% more profits. Will lift up PBB Cpo export increased more than E&E in percentage Cpo recent price spike to over Rm3,000 MT Discovery of palm cake for poultry feed Coming Hari Raya sales spike Top Sifus and Top Funds holding firm Palm oil spectacular results coming out one by one next 2 weeks in Bursa.
All these are certainties. Even the simplest ones can SEE if just open eyes and observe.
SO ALL THE EVIDENCES POINT TO A BULL RUN.
THE LAW OF THE CYCLICAL SAYS
WHAT GOES UP WILL COME DOWN AND WHAT GOES DOWN WILL COME UP AGAIN.
And yessss! 10 years ago in 2007 when Lehman Brothers crisis hit hard and market collapsed world wide and Warren Buffet came out to say that the stock market just got a heart attack, the only class of stocks that saved the day was PALM OIL.
Anyone remember those days when CPO PRICE SPIKED AGAINST STOCKPRICES FALLING LEFT AND RIGHT?
AND SO WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF.
YESSSS!!
CPO AND PALM OIL - THE DEFENSIVE STOCKS FOR TIMES LIKE THESE
Calvin is wasting a lot of his time predicting the not knowables. :-) Calvin (thinks he) has the uncanny ability to predict the future. Having seen many of his posts, he is not much different from the rest, except for his verbosity. The market in the short term is a random walk, difficult to predict. Stay with individual bottom up stock analysis, indulging in those within your circle of competence. Be patient and be humble.
"10 years ago in 2007 when Lehman Brothers crisis hit hard and market collapsed world wide and Warren Buffet came out to say that the stock market just got a heart attack, the only class of stocks that saved the day was PALM OIL."
Well, palm oil saved us in 1997/98 Asian crisis. I was attending an annual dinner given by a trade association where the guest of honour was the late Minister of primary Industries, Mr Lim Keng Yaik. And he mentioned palm oil and China.
BUT, to be more direct, it was China, which bought huge quantities of palm oil from us, saved us from economic collapse.
China could have bought the commodity from Africa or elsewhere.
Good morning Calvin Tan. To note that I bought Dutaland two months ago at 48sen after reading your write up. Still waiting. While your recommendation is sound at times yet sometimes a counter can be stuck at depressed levels for a long time. That is why other people bash you. However, if Dutaland goes down, I only have myself to blame since you did not put a gun to my head to buy and also I only bought 2200 shares.
You have a good eye for identifying undervalued companies but sometimes your recommendation need a lot of patience. You are called Mr 226 but the contest is for one year. I feel that if the contest is for lets say 3 years, you may be a lot higher than 226 since some of your counters really have to wait.
Again if you are Mr 226 at the end of the year, I will still not judge you badly due to the fact that share investments is sometimes medium to long term of 3 years or more.
And today, u can read about some right wing politicians in M'sia with anti-China sentiments. Maybe they are thinking Europe, USA or Middle East could save us. This is nothing more than a syok-sendiri day dreaming.
duta what? notorious guy, forget it. better look for something better.like SOP,and some other undervalued plantation stocks with high production of FFB.
These oil palm companies all very low tech one, just better than stone age. In this modern age where tech is the key, they can't make much money. History showed that when volume of FFB up, price down, or the other way round. Basic monopolistic competition setup. And you have monopolistic competition between all the different oil producers.
Except the year 2009 when China bought everything the world produced, that was the heyday for Palm oil ==> high price and high volume.
So how can Oil palm companies make tons of money? The only way is to innovate, lower cost and increase production efficiency, rather than just wait for better price to come.
Production efficiency: applies stem foliar, mechanisation of harvesting using the RIGHT technology (for 40 years MPOB came up with some stupid KAPSIT CANTAS which is 20 times more expensive than a grass cutter but 20 times less efficient than a grass cutter) such as motorised wheel barrow, rail system inside estate, etc.
You know, the modern world commonly use 4 families of breeds for genetic selection purpose. Only Malaysia are using 2 families. You see the seedlings commonly labeled DxP, instead they should be using for instance, AxDxPxZ. Its 4 times more powerful than the usual way. Now some companies like Sime is starting to use 3 familes. Still a long way to go.
With these, at least oil palm companies in Malaysia can make 6 times more money.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
56,429 posts
Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-05-18 08:19 | Report Abuse
Orson Chin,
For Mulpha the catalyst will come when HSR station is built near Leisure Farm.