I suppose pig iron is also transportable like HBI. If that is the case, AnnJoo also can sell and export pig iron produced from its blast furnace(?)

Wow, very informative video and easy to understand. Thanks FutureEyes.
LionInd's HBI operation indeed has great value.

Newbie911, I didn't say I sell and I didn't sell. Which part of my comment above mention I sell leh ?
I hold and will add if it drops further post Q2 earning announcement. That was what I meant. Understand ?

AnnJoo is the safer bet for long steel stock lar. It's profit margin is good and pay decent dividend. It has hybrid furnace which gives it flexibility in selecting lower cost raw material to use.
LionInd I also like due to its expanding capacity, and Parkson is turning to profitability. The only concern is market has negative view on its acquisition proposal for Megasteel, but some people think that is actually a good deal as HRC can fetch good price now.
SSteel has lawsuit with its previous HRC equipment supplier, there is a risk of financial compensation if they lose the lawsuit. Besides, it's stock price does not drop as much as other long steel companies in this year, thus make it less attractive relatively.
Masteel I would avoid because it is sensitive to USD. It has negative exposure in USD, thus we should see quite significant forex loss in its coming Apr-Jun'18 earning result due to the strengthening of USD in Q2.

In general, the long steel companies are expecting lower earnings QoQ in Apr-Jun18 period due to lower demand for steel as a result of lower activities in Hari Raya month and drop in local steel price in Q2. So pls do not panic if see lower earnings in coming announcement. I suppose that has been factored into their stock prices.

The bird flu in Sabah does not affect LayHong farm so far. Thus, this is not an issue.
What I am concerned about is the lower demand for eggs and softer eggs price in Apr-Jun'18 period due to fasting month. Do not forget Malay is the majority in Malaysia, and their fasting month could really push down the demand for eggs, and consequently, the earnings for LayHong.
Having said that, its stock price has been down from 90+sen to 70+sen now, so I suppose that has already reflected the potential lower earnings in Apr-Jun'18 period.
I will add if its stock price come further down after the announcement of Q2 earnings.

I heard a lot of great people, including Warren Buffet, advise not to use margin finance in stock investment.
Well, I have to confess that I have been using margin financing in stock market. I did hesitate when I first using it, I had to then bcos my capital was not big enough.
I fully agreed that margin financing is a double edges sword, and I definitely won't encourage people to use it, especially newbies.
Having said that, i do not regret using margin finance. Conversely, it has served me well, and it amplifies my returns in past 5 years. Therefore, I am going to continue using it..oops..sorry for those who preach not to :p

The only reason I do not like about margin financing is the transaction fees is higher for margin account. If I stop using margin finance one day, it would be due to I want to save transaction cost.

probability, thanks. I enjoy your sharing in this i3forum too.
Some people in i3 forum are here to attract student, subscriber or investor, thus, they have to show their power and try to win in every arguments bcos they need to preserve their reputation.
For normal investor like me (I think u too) are not here for that purpose, therefore, we should argue less and learn more.

National car project has caused Malaysian needs to pay more to buy foreign car, government wants to launch 3rd national car now ???
I so far have supported the new government, hope they don't come out silly proposals such as ban 10-years old car, and now 3rd national car... I hope they appreciate the opportunity that rakyat Malaysia gave them in last election.

I hope BN opposition party will fight against the 3rd national car proposal. It is their job now.

It is not easy to gather so much hard data and complete the good article above. We should appreciate the author as he is giving us for free.
I may have doubt on the financial forecast, and the coming earnings may deviate from what have forecasted above. But, the reasoning and the logic of why iron ore price decreases and scrap iron price increases, and why LionInd has good earnings prospect from its HBI operation is there. We can take away the useful facts after reading the article above. I personally have benefited from it.

Since AnnJoo also can use iron ore as raw material, it will also beneficial like LionInd to take advantage of lower iron ore price vs scrap iron price.

Thanks Calvin882 for the info.

Anyway, he merely sold half of the amount he acquired in end Jun. He owned 55% of total warrants (according to 2018 annual report), and what he sold in July was ~10.9% of warrants he owned. Maybe, he just need money for personal use and not relate to fundamental of LayHong ?

It should not be due to he foresee bad earnings result in Apr-Jun'18 quarter, bcos if that is the case, he would not have acquired 33.53mil warrants in end Jun'18.

About the directors selling his warrants. I noticed Yap HC acquired 33.52mil warrants through open market on 27th & 28th Jun'18. He then disposed a total of 15.6mil warrants (about half amount that he acquired in end Jun'18) at lower price one month later from 20th to 27th July'18. I wonder what is the rational behind ?

Anyway, most of the farms of LayHong located in West Malaysia, and only one farm located in Sabah. So, it is considered fortunate that this bird flu is constrained in East Malaysia.

@Calvin882, do u know the name of the affected local farm ? Is it a farm belongs to any listed company ?

Does that mean the affected farm not belong to LayHong, and the affected farm is 5km away from LayHong's Tamparuli farm ?
LayHong's farm is a closed house farm, so it should be safer.

It is known to many veteran i3investor members that what sort of human that KYY was and is. He can only con newbies.

Such a company is selling at PE<10 now. Its fair value should be RM1 per share and above. The upside from current price is still attractive.

With or without the acquisition of Trackwork, AWC is doing well and undervalued. Trackwork is just a bonus.

I did spend some times in studying Jaks after its stock price plunged as I also do not want to miss any opportunity. However, I come to the conclusion that Jaks is still not cheap at current price.

I also think that by looking at Jaks' stock price came down from RM1.80 to RM1.04, and therefore it is considered cheap may not be convincing.

My calculation on the core EPS (after excluding the one-off items like Subang Jaya land and property disposal gain & etc) for Jaks in FY17 is 75.5sen. Thus, at RM1.10 now, Jaks is selling at 14.5x multiple, which I don't think it is considered cheap.
There are other construction and property companies selling at much lower PE multiple than Jaks in Bursa now..and they are without the issues faced by Jaks currently, i.e. proposed right issue, lawsuit, major shareholder is disposing..

When one company proposed right issue, and when the corporate exercise is on-going, it is like hanging a weight on a person's neck. The person cannot run upward fast, the most he can do is stay at around that level (if not being weighted down). The on-going right issues in Jaks would keep pulling its stock price.

Be a contrarian and catch falling knife is what preached by value investors. I do agree with this principle and have been practising that in past months.
But, take one important note that attaches with the above principle, it is "u better be right". So if one insists to be a contrarian, and wrongly catch a falling knife, he will still hurt himself.

Well, if Jaks fall further, one can consider to pick up, but I just think it may be too early to do so now..

Apart from Star lawsuit and KYY is throwing, do not forget there are on-going right issue and its loss making property division issues. All these issues come together to pull down Jak's stock price...

It is not something that an investor doesn't know kills him, it is something that he thought he knows kill him.

KYY is a lousy but over-confident stock investor. The combination of lousiness and over-confident is a perfect storm in stock investment.
He might be a great business man, but that doesn't make him a great investor.

KYY bought stocks on margin so he may need to sell some Jaks' mother shares otherwise he may not have sufficient fund to subscribe for the coming right issues. He need to fork out a huge sum of money for the right issue subscription..so watch out.
Maybe the good time for us to pick up Jaks is after KYY selling and after the completion of the right issues. I suppose that will be the bottom price for Jaks then.

The risk that may disrupt oil demand is US-China trade war. The catalyst that may boost oil price is Iran sanction as it will further reduce global oil supply.

Thanks TeoCT for info sharing. I understood your point now. The increase in shale oil is not sufficient to cover (the decrease of output from other oil producers + increase in oil demand).
The global oil storage will be depleting and therefore oil price is expected to rise in coming future.

At this point, KYY regrets but hasn't sold yet. Just imagine when the biggest shareholder starts selling, what will happen to Jaks' stock price :p

Apart from the legal case, Jaks' poor performance from property division and frequent cash call also the reasons that pushed down its stock price.
In normal case, when a right issue is proposed, the price of the stock would remain depressed until the right issue is completed as people do not want to fork out additional money to subscribe the right issue (I hate to do so too !)

How about shale oil from US. I suppose it can fill up the gap from Venezuela low production and Iran sanction, no ?

The strengthening of USD and the potential 10% tariff on China imports would provide Malaysia wood based manufacturers a big boost for their stock price to run from now till Aug, I think.

According to UOB Kay Hian analyst, the wood based panel makers, eg. Evergreen and Hevea etc, will also be the beneficiaries as 10% trade tariff will also be imposed on wood based panel exported from China to US, if the tariff really come into effect in end Aug'18.
I suppose that explains why LiiHen, Pohuat,Evergreen & Hevea stock prices all shot up today. TheStar just published UOB Kay Hian's analysis today.

If Mr.Koon starts selling, Jaks' stock price will fall further. It seems like he hasn't done so yet..

Almost all the time when right issue is proposed, the stock price will come down because people does not like cash call (me too !).
I suppose Jaks' stock price will remain depressed until the right issue is completed in 2H 2018. Until then, I suppose it is better to stay away from this falling stock.

Comparing with Tambun which made profit in past several years and sellig at merely 0.63 P/BV and ~PE5, EWINT is not cheap relatively.
Even when EWInt registers good profit in subsequent quarters from its completed overseas project, that only justify its current price at 0.93 P/BV..I don't think there will be a huge jump in its stock price when people see EWInt turns from loss to gain in subsequent quarters bcos that is within expectation.

Market people already knew EWINT's overseas property development will only see the revenue and profit upon the completion of the properties. In other words, it is known that the profit will come only in later part of 2018 and 2019. Otherwise, how can a property company which made loss in past 6 quarters consecutively can still sell at 0.93 P/BV.

All in all, I will not revert back to asset based investment method.

Having said that, if I practice the asset based investment method in this year 2018, I probably would have lost much less money. Thus, this method is generally doesn't work well in bull market but good in bear market.

The problem of asset based investment method is it is "passive". After buying, one has to wait and hope the stock's value can somehow be unlocked. It is not interesting and more importantly I didn't make money from this investment method after trying for some years..

I have experience in buying high NTA stocks which way below its book value, or so called net net stocks. I owned Plenitude and Insas years ago. This method of investment didn't work well.
I have changed my investment method to earning based, and my performance improved, at least in last few years but not in year 2018, u know why :)

Liihen's poor performance in recent quarter is way below my expectation.
The profit margin deteriorated QoQ by too much. The higher material cost and labour cost have been there since a few quarters ago, but why margin only down by so much in this Q (?). Let's see what happen next Q..
Latitude is in more difficult situation bcos it has plant in Vietnam, and there are many new China furniture companies in Vietnam now and the competition is stiff. I think Latitude is hard to recover in subsequent Qs.

The one who put money in FD would rank #3 in this competition. haha.
Pathetic.

Misleading info. The size of order book is not calculated using profit.

Market is irrational to sell-down AnnJoo, LionInd and SSteel.
Look at their earning capability and current ultra-low PE, so mis-match.
The long steel companies have been making good profit in past 2 years without the HSR project, so what's so bad when HSR was cancelled.

Evergreen's earning is as bad as other wood based companies, i.e. Hevea, Latitude & Liihen, in Jan-Mar quarter. I suppose the result is expected in view of weaken USD and higher log cost.
The positive point is its current stock price has reflected the poor earning in advance. Its PE is <10x now, so I suppose its stock price will not fall much on Wednesday.