Do not catch a falling knife.

And thank you Fatty Kim, for stirring up a hornet's nest.

You have just hit the nail on the head.

Relax guys, the announcement is just a date announcement for dividend announced on 21 Nov 2017.

龙争虎斗

有时还斗不过地头蛇。。。。。

无碍。来日方长。

So what is the price your gang intends to buy back ?

So what is your objective for telling the whole world you are selling? Good intention ? My foot !!!!!!!!!

梦姐， 她主要目的要我们散户救活JAKS 和 EVERSENDAI .
已被套牢很久了。

360 Capitalist, you are likely to be right.

For your info, an influential figure with good integrity is now recommending his followers to buy HY on price weakness. Mind you, he sold all HY on Wednesday and inform all his followers about it.

You think when HY price shoot up like rocket everyone makes money ? Those IBs who issue call warrants are sweating and plotting behind the scene on how to damage control.

Very good timing on The Edge article by TA.

In the midst of a storm, remember what is left after the storm. HY refinery is still here, 4QR EPS likely to be around RM1.40 . 2017 EPS at ~ RM3.40 . So what is the fair value of such a company?

会坚持

No....not 20 . but RM 20.18

好。。。再加码

秦姐， 好盘就多待着。隔壁可以暂时搁一旁。。。呵呵呵

谢谢了秦姐

Wah lau eh....queue at RM11.30 also cannot get

3iii > I think the long term sustainable crack spread should be closer to US $4 and below.

Can someone who are more knowledgeable please check this out?

Thanks in anticipation.
03/12/2017 13:52


3iii, your LT sustainable crack spread at USD 4 is way out. No one will invest in new refinery capacity at this level. And it is precisely this kind of crack spread level in the past that result in huge losses and for Shell to sell its PD refinery to Hengyuan.

Petronas investing RM60 billion for a rated 300K bpd refinery.

At USD 4 crack refinery margin, its yearly gross refinery crack spread revenue is 300,000 bpd x USD 4 X RM4.1 X 365days = RM 1.8 billion per year.

RM 1.8 billion per year and yet to deduct operating costs, depreciation, maintenance downtime etc.

RM 60 b / RM1.8b = 33.3 years for gross refinery crack revenue to be equivalent to investment amount.


Pleaselah, 3iii, stop throwing red herring to misled amateur investors. No sane investors will invest in new refinery capacity if they anticipate LT crack spread at USD 4

Anyway, do you think the Chinese owners willing to sell HRC at RM 6 billion, when the cost of building a new 150K bpd refinery is at least RM 12 billion. Dream on.......

Petronm isn't stupid. Not that they don't want to buy at double HRC share price. Problem is, HRC supply is already locked in for sale to Shell for 10 years.

BRAVO !!!!!! LOVE YOUR RESPONSE..........GOOD ONE.


Investar2862
I found HRC by LUCK!
I studied the potential of HRC's business, its FA & TA and decided to invest in this stock. This is certainly NOT by luck. It is based on my knowledge, skills and experience...my competencies.
The hurricane that affected to fuel supply can be due to LUCK!

If I know the destination and are moving in the right direction, I will get there in the matter of time. I planned to walk there, and so happen a friend also going the same direction and decided to give me a lift in his car, and arrive at the destination faster - that is aided by LUCK. But I am the one who decided my destination.

Yes LUCK do help to make things easier, but it is not wise to attribute everything to LUCK...maybe 33.33% okay la D:)
24/11/2017 06:58

秦大姐。在等你团队的表演哦。。。。

No more bullets ....... dumb dumb hold

Great article. One of David's best article so far.

Some of us may be scolding ASB for causing HRC price to stagnate at this level for the past couple of months. Once the day of reckoning arrive, investors will have ASB to thank for allowing them to invest at such a bargain price.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/refined-products/singapore-mogas-92-unleaded-platts-brent-crack-spread-swap-futures.html

Will refineries in Malaysia enjoy what the Steel sector enjoying currently ?

Article from the Star,

Malaysian steel stocks climb, pushed by China output cut

Friday, 15 Sep 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/09/15/steel-on-the-uptrend/
15/09/2017 08:33

Lau333, thanks for the news update. With China teapots being closed down to combat environment degradation, we should be asking ourselves, how much must refinery margins increased to cope with additional China imports.

Though the impact should not be as great as Steel sector, it should have a positive overall effect to refineries ex-China.

free2invest, if missiles are really flying between the Koreans, refineries ex-Korea will benefit from their war. Refinery margins will have to rise to cover output shortfall from affected Korean refineries.

Aero1.......Thanks for news. So refinery profits should be sustainable over the long run, which imply more funds will invest in it, which will rerate refinery business from ave. PE of 7 to PE ???........

To quote ..........

When price is up, volume is high - A good sign 

When price is down, volume is high - A bad sign 

When price is down, volume is low - A good sign

Yeap......agreed. Didn't just watch, bought at RM2.27 level.

我看得掉眼睛了。。。秦梦瑶美女 ，算你厉害。

Wow...volume above 2 million shares. Are funds buying the shares?

Warmblood, you have just hit the nail on the head.
So the next question is, have SSteel stock up on graphite electrodes to allow it uninterrupted production?

Hope informed forummers will enlighten us.

Probability.......your prediction was verified through Petronm 2nd QR report.

Petronm 1st QR 2nd QR

Sales ('000) 2,556,604 2,415,510
Cost of sales ('000) 2,373,470 (92.8%) 2,291,531 (94.9%)
Gross Profit ('000) 183,134 (7.2%) 123,929 (5.1%)


Petronm report states that 'product cracks improved', but why does the gross profit margin decreased from 7.2% in 1st qtr to 5.1% in 2nd qtr. Very likely as per your deduction, they have to purchase some supplies from other refinery when Petron Corp Battaan Refinery was shut down for 45days maintenance. Therefore increasing their cost of sales.

Likely supplier to Petronm is HRC.

佩服Probability。。。。。给你推测对了

tellmewhy......your analysis is wrong. Profit margin isn't proportionate to number of outlets.

If you can't fathom my statement, you should get professionals to manage your funds or subscribe to OTB newsletter. All the best

Another prompt and outstanding update from edward123.

It is because of forummers like him that we ikan bilis can escape being fodder to larger predators.

Sincere appreciation and thanks

Leoting the best in steel forum ..........

Wait for the next 2 qtr results to prove that they are benefiting from the capital expenditure over the past two years before investing. In business, we can plan and come out with all the c/f and profitability analysis, but still success is not a given.

This stock is not a write-off. There is a potential for it to become a multi bagger, but need we need to monitor its progress before buying its shares.

Just too bad that industry insiders are not here to provide good information to help us amateur investors to make good decisions.

Good to see 3iii buying HRC .......... At least show that you are not as stubborn as a mule.

Able to make a U turn after seeing the facts and assessing the situation.

Laugh and scorn at 360Capitalist as much as you want.........but are you man enough to apologise to him if his price target comes true two years down the road?

All it requires is for the crack spread margin to maintain at current level for two years, HRC to show profit consistency and the whole equation will have to change.

Laugh and scorn at 360Capitalist as much as you want.........but are you man enough to apologise to him if his price target comes true two years down the road?

All it requires is for the crack spread margin to maintain at current level for two years, HRC to show profit consistency and the whole equation will have to change.

Alex Foo......before property counter uptrend starts, market should undergo major correction already. Better focus back to your Hengyuan and steel counters. At least enjoy a major price uptrend before and after Q3 results announcement.

360 Capitalist.......you have my vote.......

Please apply FutureEyes article 'Hard Datas' calculations to HRC 1st QR report.........
For your info....Brent crude prices (from Bloomberg) as at
30/12/2016 USD 56.82
31/3/2017 USD 52.83
30/6/2017 USD 47.92

1st QR Brent crude price decreased USD 3.99 bpd
2nd QR Brent crude price decreased USD 4.91 bpd

HRC 1st QR EPS 93 sen.
HRC 2nd QR EPS ????? ( Only HRC finance guys will know the important key price
datas to input for profit estimation)

To predict HRC EPS at 19 sen is way off the mark. And from FutureEyes analysis, he is a smart guy. Why throw so much red herring to unsuspecting amateur investors like us.........

I will quote following forummer's comment .......


Jupiterang> If i'm a shark with insider news, here's how I will run the monkey show...

Before a Good News out, I create a panic sell to collect. When Good News out, Market will panic buy at high. I sell sell sell...

Before a Bad News out, I create a panic buy to sell. When Bad News out..kaboom! It's none of my business as I have already sold all my holdings...

All still remember how atta, lbalum, comcorp, Prelexus rose up by panic buying and crashed after Bad News out..

Do not chase high..
10/08/2017 14:30


Good luck for all those onboard HRC ship........remember Sifu Raider's advice dumb dumb hold........
12/08/2017 12:22

Anyway, please apply above article calculations to HRC 1st QR report.........
For your info....Brent crude prices (from Bloomberg) as at
30/12/2016 USD 56.82
31/3/2017 USD 52.83
30/6/2017 USD 47.92

1st QR Brent crude price decreased USD 3.99 bpd
2nd QR Brent crude price decreased USD 4.91 bpd

HRC 1st QR EPS 93 sen.
HRC 2nd QR EPS ????? ( Only HRC finance guys will know the important key price
datas to input for profit estimation)

To predict HRC EPS at 19 sen is way off the mark. And from FutureEyes analysis, he is a smart guy. Why throw so much red herring to unsuspecting amateur investors like us.........

I will quote following forummer's comment .......


Jupiterang> If i'm a shark with insider news, here's how I will run the monkey show... 

Before a Good News out, I create a panic sell to collect. When Good News out, Market will panic buy at high. I sell sell sell... 

Before a Bad News out, I create a panic buy to sell. When Bad News out..kaboom! It's none of my business as I have already sold all my holdings... 

All still remember how atta, lbalum, comcorp, Prelexus rose up by panic buying and crashed after Bad News out.. 

Do not chase high..
10/08/2017 14:30


Good luck for all those onboard HRC ship........remember Sifu Raider's advice dumb dumb hold........

Above article datas are biased.....................

HRC main product is gasoline, why use jet fuel kerosene futures to substantiate your figures..............

Why use 26th June Brent crude prices when 30th June is the month end and is on Friday, a trading day. The pricing differential is already nearly USD 3 per barrel for that few days of trading.

Got to go back to work, will work out the details later.....but for sincere investors, please double check the data and don't follow blindly.

Look at HRC chart before and after 1st QR announcement...............

Those who have no news will queue for better prices........those with info will just grab before it is too late.........