Posted by tc2012 > 2014-03-02 14:40 | Report Abuse

Hi kcchongnz,If I am not mistaken , the contract will be expire sometime in 2017 for sabah power plant.What is the impact on the valuation ?

Posted by kk123 > 2014-03-02 14:54 | Report Abuse

My advice to u all is don't listen to any financial advisors or any report that is the motif is to benefit the writer who already bought mfcb earlier ..
Here they would paint as if its a super company , and very undervalue, which sorry to say I don't think mfcb is a good company ..
It's business in Cambodia and Laos can easily go into trouble and if not careful can bankrupt the company .. As its having a lot of debt
Again if u jump in now maybe later may get guillotine once the writer and his buddies start selling

Posted by rlch > 2014-03-02 16:13 | Report Abuse

Why substantial shareholder Lim Thian Soo keep selling for past 3 months?
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchsh/3069.jsp
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1549833

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-03-02 17:11 | Report Abuse

buy 1.85/1.95 sold 2.40 liau, will buy back at 2.10-2.15

Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-03-02 18:03 | Report Abuse

Mega First Corporation Bhd is another Great Growth Stock I bought for RM1.40 years back. Already sold some time ago. I remember MFCB is also a substantial shareholder of an even better Growth Stock called Rock Chemical Industries (RCI). I had bought all the highly profitable cement cos. & RCI is selling white cement.

One fine day MFCB(my remisier called it My Father Comes Back.) took RCI private. So I think kk123 knows next to nothing about MFCB. I really wonder so many who know next to nothing talking so much nonsense like this kk123.

Anyway, I don't own any My Father Comes Back share now.

Posted by kk123 > 2014-03-02 19:24 | Report Abuse

well one need to look and evaluate a company base on its fundamentals , and not base on "vested interest"..
If the main intention of writing is so that u get everyone into buying this stock - then u better don't write cause once u sell others may suffer losses .. It's a zero sum game, somebody win , somebody will lose ..
I would avoid mfcb as in my opinion there are so many other better companies than this one
So not worth even for me to look or buy in :)

Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-03-02 19:51 | Report Abuse

Interesting! Name one share better than MFCB. Since I didn't buy MFCB you can now share your better Stock Pick here.

Posted by houseofordos > 2014-03-02 22:17 | Report Abuse

Just to add, based on an article in the Edge about 3 weeks back, MFCB has bought back about 8.2% of its total share base so far. Shy of 1.8% to upper 10% limit... Bonus issue / share dividend coming soon ?

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-02 22:29 | Report Abuse

It is still a very good habit to ask before i invest if there is any better alternative. If there is no better alternative we cant force ourselves to diversify just to diversify. That is why Warren portfolio is so concentrated.

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-02 22:43 | Report Abuse

So it is a power business, the regulated business. Are we going to benchmark it against market leader like MMC, TNB or YTL Power? Or KC has concluded that it has better cash management and efficiency than those mentioned? Is this regulated business still going to get higher margin like before? As at the moment, YTL Power share perfomance for past 10 years is languishing. If your business model is so much regulated even comes to begging for contract/price revision/better terms, the owner might always boast about their business model. I just shake my head in disbelief.

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-02 22:58 | Report Abuse

Lots of analyst like KC, like me, like everybody else is looking for great NEW company. But we simply dont know where to find a great NEW one. Sometimes we have no alternative but to read all paper reports and analyse half-tinted reports. And even hope for upcoming Bonus issues. BUT In everybody hearts we know the great company is NOT coming through analysing of its data/reports.Yes Reports is confirming your belief. BUT YOU DONT IT THE OTHER WAY ROUND. But it is so hard to look for great company right? So we do it the other round.

If it is a great Business, you know it is a great Business. You know you have just come across a great business that will come through test of time stronger and stronger. If you dont know, then you just dont know. If you know then you really really know. Appreciation is a Gift from above.

Posted by houseofordos > 2014-03-02 23:02 | Report Abuse

One thing I can state is that in this market environment, its not easy to find a business with an earnings yield of 30% as what KC mentioned or selling at EV/EBIT < 3.3

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-02 23:08 | Report Abuse

Sometimes there is still no great company around. So the investment house has no alternative but to comes up with THEME play. So if suddenly there is a theme play on Power sector, what can i say? Good for market liquidity.

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-02 23:32 | Report Abuse

We always respect the market as its price has discounted future cash flow for next 20 years. Price is as such for a good reasons. We have to respect it if it is Top price as it is top priced for good reason. We also respected it if it is lower priced, it is lower priced for good reasons as well.

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-02 23:33 | Report Abuse

I don't like to say it is undervalued or overvalued. We have to respect market as the way it is priced.

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-02 23:41 | Report Abuse

Whether it is market efficient or not, learn to respect the market first. Dont trade or invest like we own the company or we are market maker.

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-03 00:06 | Report Abuse

Probably tc2012 comments will shed some light on the so-called lower priced issue. Also, anybody knows about china power plant contract? Any favourable term or bad term on its expiry? Any risk associated with this kind of foreign investment? Who knows right?

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-03 00:14 | Report Abuse

So it is going to be a professional speculation again whereby lots of investor betting on lower priced and hoping for Big gain. That is nothing wrong if You are professional and risk-controlled and more importantly you are not addicted and knows when to take profit and get out. SINCE very few great company around nowadays and very few people interested in investing anyway.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-03-03 14:12 | Report Abuse

Posted by kk123 > Mar 2, 2014 02:54 PM | Report Abuse

My advice to u all is don't listen to any financial advisors or any report that is the motif is to benefit the writer who already bought mfcb earlier ..

WHEN I SPENT SO MUCH TIME ANALYZING AND WRITING A POST LIKE THIS ABOUT A COMPANY, DON'T YOU THINK THAT I HAVE THE COMMITMENT IN ITS STOCK AND HAVE INVESTED IN IT? WHAT IS WRONG ABOUT IT IF I OWN THE STOCK AND WRITE ABOUT IT? SO THAT I CAN SELL TO A SUCKER LIKE YOU AT A PRICE 55% (ITS UPSIDE POTENTIAL) HIGHER? SO WHEN CAN I WRITE ABOUT THIS STOCK? BEFORE I BUY IT? WHY?

Here they would paint as if its a super company , and very undervalue, which sorry to say I don't think mfcb is a good company ..

GOOD POINT. BUT PLEASE ILLUSTRATE HOW I "PAINT" IT? AND WHY DO YOU THINK MFCB IS NOT A GOOD COMPANY? SHOW US SOME NUMBERS OR QUALITATIVE JUSTIFICATION. NOT JUST WILD SHOOTING.

It's business in Cambodia and Laos can easily go into trouble and if not careful can bankrupt the company .. As its having a lot of debt

MFCB HAVING A LOT OF DEBTS? CAN GO BANKRUPT? PLEASE JUSTIFY.

Again if u jump in now maybe later may get guillotine once the writer and his buddies start selling

"GET GUILLOTINE" ONCE THE WRITER AND HIS BUDDIES START SELLING? WHAT IS THIS?

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-03 16:38 | Report Abuse

KC has been genuine and has contributed so much in this forum and has provided us with so much insight and learning curve. Anyway a person preference in stock selection is much various than food selection or music preference. It is amazingly different taste.

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-03 16:45 | Report Abuse

There is why there is always Buyer and Seller. Because always one side say Boom One side say Bust. No mater at what price One side would say sell and the other side would say Buy. Once everybody understands this, there is no need to be angry and argue.

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-03 16:47 | Report Abuse

Dont believe me. Look at everyday volumn it is amazing. Everyday there are people selling Nestle, Public, LPI. It is amazing.

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-03 16:59 | Report Abuse

so there is different mindset and approach in investment and speculation by asking ourselves few questions below:

1. Have I ever Hold any stock more than 10 years?
2. Do I read the market price on daily basis OR only on MONTHEND closing price? Well sometimes I reckon that price might drop 20% in a month right?
3. Do i always calculate my profit and loss or stock performance even on yearly basis?
4. Do i welcome stock drop more than 20%?
5. Do I always look for undervalue stocks instead of Great Business? Well now we know that all good company has fetched higher price, so we have no alternative But to look for undervalued company?

So I guess most of us are just speculators. BE a professional one then. Be sure to know when you are wrong and when to get out.

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-03 17:15 | Report Abuse

IF nobody can be a saint then be a good man faithful to the family right? If nobody can be a Great investor, then be more professional speculators. Right? So we better list down all comprehensive risk associated with this Business and more importantly our capital downside risk as at times price moves before fundamental changes=insider trading.For example below Rm2 we cut loss that is 10% downside. Well nowadays there is 20% gap down then you lose 20% at market open and you still need to cut...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-03-03 21:51 | Report Abuse

Kkchongnz I strongly back you for posting the article on i3. Without people like you and Uncle Koon, the forum is nothing but idle talks (including me) which sounds something like this : "lai Liao lai Liao", or "tomorrow sure up", or "buy buy buy, wave 4 coming, wave 5 coming", or "any news why it is up?".

You have done a great service to this forum by posting so much information here. I believe most of the people here are savvy and matured enough to ascertain whether your points are genuine or not.

Carry on the great work !!!!!

Posted by inwest88 > 2014-03-03 22:21 | Report Abuse

# Icon8888 - strongly concur with your comments. These are my thoughts all this while.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-03-03 22:39 | Report Abuse

It's a good fundamental company generating stable profit and paying decent dividend every year.

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-04 00:46 | Report Abuse

As i advised instead of saying i am right and market is wrong, respect the price as the way it is. Understand why it is lower priced first.

There are at least 3 things that we could not understand/estimate:

1. The magnitude of forces that keeps price at low range; How Big is the forces behind that would be able to keep price at lower range? Can you fight it?

2. The amount of effort of past 10 years that has been put in to push up the price But fail, dont you know everyday people has been trying for the past ten years by all means?

3. What is the right catalyst for the situation? If you dont know the diagnosis, how do you know the medicine right?

Posted by zan122208 > 2014-03-04 01:17 | Report Abuse

I'm quite new in i3, but already detect a virus forumner that keep spreading bad comments everywhere he goes. Can't this guy at least come up with good analysis to counter any detail analysis done by other forumner? Have you gained any respect so far by trashing other people analysis?

Posted by stockoperator > 2014-03-04 10:39 | Report Abuse

dividend plus stock performance could be 10% return company as its business is as such.

Posted by digiuser016 > 2014-03-04 12:38 | Report Abuse

Hi Kcchong,

When you evaluate a construction company, do you include property development cost and land held for porperty development as your invested capital?

Refers to the below link, If I take the figure of PPE and exclude property development cost and land held for property development, my ROIC >100%
http://postimg.org/image/k52uwbulp/

Thank you.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-03-04 13:23 | Report Abuse

Posted by digiuser016 > Mar 4, 2014 12:38 PM | Report Abuse

When you evaluate a construction company, do you include property development cost and land held for property development as your invested capital?


This is one of the best questions someone asked me. For sure you will never learn this in your financial accounting, investment, undergraduate or post graduate, or even in your CFA courses. Hence I am not 100% (not even 60%) sure my reply here is correct or not. Nevertheless I wish to simulate the interest of anyone who is interested in this subject to put forward his opinion to share.

I presume you are interested in invested capital (IC) to determine if the return (net income)of a company is good in relation to IC, or the percentage of free cash flow is high relative to IC etc. For me, the return of invested capital, or FCF/IC are some of the most important metrics to determine if a company is good, or has certain moat.

So you have to start from return (or FCF or whatever), what is the return made up of. Does is include profit from its property development. If so the development cost, especially the current development costs, should logically be included in the IC.

What about "land held for property development"? To me there is no immediate development of the land and hence no return yet from it now. It is a non-operating asset (for the moment). Inclusion of this asset in IC will unjustifiably lower the return from IC. Hence it should not be included in the IC.

So the principle is whether there is activity on the asset and return from it. Is it part of the ordinary business now? If the net profit includes incomes from those activities, the assets should be included in the IC.

The other thing is you must find out what this "return" is. You should also eliminate the one-time-off or non-recurring return to get a realistic picture of the true performance.

Posted by digiuser016 > 2014-04-20 21:01 | Report Abuse

Your interpretation of land held for development is correct .

If the land is held for development purposes, its value shall be carried at cost, less than any accumulated impariment losses.

This is persuant to Financial Reporting Standard 201, an accounting standard that also requires that land held for property development be classified as a non current assset, where no developent activities have been carried out or development acitivities are not expected to be completed within the nomral operating cycle.

Posted by ccs999 > 2014-09-30 20:57 | Report Abuse

IV RM3.48