Posted by BabyTurtle > 2014-08-20 15:41 | Report Abuse

bro yong y market suddenly drop? is it investor from US tarik their fund?

Posted by yong888 > 2014-08-21 08:25 | Report Abuse

BabyTurtle ,
GOOD Morning , penny stocks are mostly affected by the sell down on both PDZ and Sumatec yesterday afternoon.

It may be a healthy correction for the penny stock, they need to rest for awhile prior to next Goreng,

Meanwhile, we shall concentrate on ctr with good Fundamentals......

Posted by yong888 > 2014-08-21 08:29 | Report Abuse

EU futures weakens slightly last night, while US market remains to be positive,
Now Asia opens Neutral with positive biased.

Hopefully, Bursa can continue to be Bullish today lor....

Posted by yong888 > 2014-08-21 08:34 | Report Abuse

Today I am watching Tenaga, and no stock pick for now until Bursa opening shortly

Posted by yong888 > 2014-08-21 08:51 | Report Abuse

Asia futures now open in Positive mood,.... korea, hong kong, autralia, Neikki, Autralia........ are all god good positive,

Bursa shall be still Positive today lor

Happy trading

Posted by yong888 > 2014-08-21 10:14 | Report Abuse

US dollar rally started on about July 10 and since then has gained at least 2.3% against every major currency except one – the Australian dollar. AUD/USD is still down 1.1% in that period but the relative resilience of the Aussie says something about underlying demand. As the NZ dollar extends losses across the board and breaks below a key trend line, our AUDNZD long pusjes further into the green.
The reason that betting on the second best performer in a trend is that the hot money tends to flood into the leader. In this case it's the US dollar and on some metrics that moves is beginning to look overdone. When the inevitable correction comes, second best is the safe place to be.
Last night, , the US dollar continued to outperform following the FOMC minutes. The knee jerk came on headlines that said “many” Fed officials said job gains could bring a sooner rate rise. The market generally moves on the headlines and looks deeper later. The actual text was more nuanced saying that “if” progress toward objectives was quick “it might” be appropriate to hike sooner.
In any case, the market voted for the US dollar, sending USD/JPY to 103.85 (near the April high) while the euro and cable continued to trace out cycle lows.

We argued for US dollar strength early in the week but the market will now laser in on Yellen's speech and the dollar bulls sitting on profits are likely to head to the exits.

AUD/USD is one spot a retracement could materialize but in the short-term the risks come with the HSBC China PMI at 0145 GMT.

Posted by investorvincent > 2014-08-22 10:10 | Report Abuse

hi yong888, need your help to identify good fundamental Healthcare stock. Got to know that medical centers in M'sia will include the GST 6% in their bill to patients although they are GST exempted.
This is due to the supplies that they purchased is inclusive of GST 6%, and they are suppose to reverse it in their account prior charging the patients. However, this process/ procedure is costly & troublesome. As such, the easy way was selected.
As such, I believe the additional 6% will be reflected in their P&L which can be substantial (if manage well).. correct me if I am wrong.
TQ

Posted by yong888 > 2014-08-23 15:55 | Report Abuse

Gold, will it go Down to USD 1000 near terms ????

Pls look at the Gold chart below,

http://gyazo.com/ffe864a4d8d99d837dad6fc7ff5919f6

with the complete overview from Sept 2011 high I am concluding that we are still in larger Wave 4 correction forming 1st Zigzag to Dec 2011 low followed by wxy move to October 2012 high as larger X wave.

Since then we have 5 wave decline to June 2013 low as wave A, followed by a triangle to recent high forming wave B and now we could be in early development of wave C unfolding in 5 wave decline. Hence new downside target could be well below last 3 lows namely 1100 as conservative or even 1000 as round number. This could be the despair phase leading to potential "beheading" low...... oooh , dear

Upon completion of this double zigzag we should resume the major uptrend to retest Sept 2011 high or make new higher high.

This is in contrast to many Elliotwave Analyst expecting this entire move from Sept 2011 high to be 5 waves decline suggesting a multi year sideways to bearish decline.

Please do note that before you decide to trade Gold, You are advised to do your own analysis , my view above can be wrong too.

Happy trading

Posted by yong888 > 2014-08-23 16:24 | Report Abuse

S&P 500, Is her peak 2100 is near?? and her prominent crashing to BELOW 1500 in next few months from now ??

Pls look at the BELOW chart for S&P500

http://gyazo.com/8df8485e6cc29b234f1410811a36a767

From my chart you can see that we are only couple of months away to form truly generational "TOP" that really is unlikely to be retested for more than generation. In fact we might spend another 15-20 years or so cascading down before forming a lasting low at a level likely below 2009 low near 650???. is it crazy ??

So the wind will change may be by Early Sept to late October with SP500 hitting 2000 zone and could spike into 2030 area.

Could the end of Tapering and prospect of rising interest rate be the catalyst? I wonder.

Likewise could Gold bottom by then ???

Happy trading

Posted by yong888 > 2014-08-23 16:44 | Report Abuse

investorvincent ,

Yeap, I will look at them shortly..

Happy trading

Posted by jm678 > 2014-08-24 01:04 | Report Abuse

Sifu Yong888, It is very nice for your sharing that even newbies may learn and excel. I have just started reading the EW notes provided by Alexofb2b. Your Gold chart and S&P 500 Chart look really scary. While it may be golden opportunity for forex/gold/index traders to sell short or take put position, newbie to Bursa market like me may have no choice but hands off. Would appreciate your further guidance.

Posted by yong888 > 2014-08-26 00:42 | Report Abuse

Wow, S&P 500 crosses 2000 first time lor.......... DJIA is also all time high ........... long long long is the day for traders

Tuesday Bursa may rebound and turning Green hopefully...

Happy trading

Posted by Joyous > 2014-08-26 15:24 | Report Abuse

Hi Yong, how do you see bimb-wa? Thanks

Posted by countfind > 2014-08-28 07:53 | Report Abuse

May universal healing light be with your dad Yong8888

Posted by newbie2013 > 2014-09-01 16:46 | Report Abuse

I have been following your forum but not that closely. Would appreciate your advice on these 2 penny stocks- nicorp and yfg.
Thank you

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-02 22:53 | Report Abuse

I am sorry for my late reply as I hv just recovered from a bad Cold/Lung Infection in Singapore.

i am Saying sorry and Thank you to :-

countfind,
newbies2013
Joyous
jm678,
investorvincen
BabyTurtle ,

Pls give me 1-2 more days for my reply... Thank you again.

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Analysis on The Crude Oil prices Near terms .....

It has been a rough summer for the crude oil bulls. Way back in June as Middle East violence began to flare and reports of Russian meddling in Ukraine took center stage, the price of oil peaked at over $107. For a while, it looked like the August 2013 high of $112.24 was the next stop, but fortunes quickly changed.

As prices rallied from $100 at the beginning of June open interest, the total number of open positions in oil futures exploded higher. That open interest moved from 1.654 million contracts on June 1 to 1.76 million by the end of the month, an increase of 6.4%. Much of that increase was speculative long positions jumping on what they thought was the next big bullish move in crude oil, but they were wrong. By the end of June, the price of crude oil began moving lower.

A very bearish summer for crude...

As news kept coming fast and furiously from the Middle East and Ukraine, something appeared wrong to the oil bulls.

The price fell throughout July, picking up speed in August. As crude oil moved lower, those buyers threw in the towel and open interest fell to 1.554 million contracts by end of August. From high to low, open interest fell 11.7% in eight weeks to the lowest level since January 2013. The price of crude oil fell 9.1% during the same period. The longs lost money during the summer of 2014, but that is only a small part of the oil story.

Contango versus Backwardation

Commodity traders have a language of their own. The structure of a market is simply the price differentials between delivery months of futures contracts. When a market is tight nearby supplies are limited. A tight market can result in a backwardation. This is a market condition where deferred prices are lower than nearby prices. Other terms for backwardation include, negative carry, tightness or a premium market. Many times backwardation in a commodity market means that there are not enough current supplies or a fear that current supplies may not be able to satisfy current demand.

A normal market is the converse. Commodity traders refer to this condition as contango. While this may bring about thoughts of some new dance contango is a market condition where deferred prices are higher than nearby prices. Other terms for contango include positive carry, normal or a discount market. Market structure, contango or backwardation in commodity markets is often one of the most important clues when it comes to underlying supply and demand fundamentals.

In many circumstances, a market moving from contango to backwardation or vice versa is more important than price moves in the active month contracts themselves. During those eight weeks when the crude oil price dropped, that price correction was only a part of the story, actually a very small indicator of the overall health of the fundamental picture for crude.

The price fell, the spreads tanked...

A 9.1% drop in eight weeks is a big price move for a commodity, but during the same time, and with very little media coverage, the market structure for crude underwent dramatic change. Since August 2012, the crude oil market was in backwardation. Nearby prices were higher than deferred prices. The highest price for crude was the active month contract price and all future delivery months out to ten years became progressively lower.

The backwardation increased through 2012 and 2013, peaking in June 2014. As the chart illustrates, the backwardation became so wide that in June 2014 the differential between the futures contracts for crude oil for delivery in October 2014 and crude oil for delivery in December 2017 moved to $17.75 per barrel. That amounts to almost a 17% premium for nearby crude on the futures exchange over crude oil for delivery in late 2017.

As the active month price of crude oil dropped, that differential spread plunged an eye-popping 76%. From high to low, the differential moved from $17.75 to just over $4 in only eight weeks. There was a recovery in the spread during the last few days of the month. It closed at $8.09 on Friday, August 29, down almost 55% from the beginning of July. The crude oil market, given the current trend, appears to be steamrolling on a course from big backwardation to contango. This is a significant change in the structure of the market.

There are fundamental issues at play...

When news that traditionally has been bullish does not affect price, one must take notice. Geopolitical turbulence has not caused the price of oil to rally. Throughout 2014, Russia and the Middle East have been hardly stable. Brent is the benchmark price for crude oil from these regions.

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-02 22:54 | Report Abuse

Continues from last posting above


Brent crude traded from a $14 premium to NYMEX light sweet crude oil at the beginning of 2014 down to a premium of $7.23 as of Friday 8/29, a decrease of almost 50%. Russian and Middle Eastern instability has had no effect on the premium of Brent crude; in fact, the premium has decreased as tensions have risen. During the same period, as illustrated by the narrowing of the backwardation, the oil market has decided that there is no potential for any supply issues or tightness in crude given the current state of supply and demand fundamentals.
There are many reasons for lower crude prices. Active month crude oil never traded above $41.15 per barrel until 2004. Higher prices have brought higher-priced production from areas like The Permian Basin, The Bakken Region and Canadian tar sands. At lower prices, this production will become uneconomic. More production in the US and Canada has resulted in oil independence for the countries, but it has also resulted in increasing supplies and reserves of the commodity.
Global economic growth has been tepid. While the US is showing some signs of growth, European growth has been weak. Growth in the world's largest commodity consumer, China, has been below estimates all year. Lower growth equals lower demand for energies such as crude oil. Over recent weeks, we have seen the price of oil products -- gasoline and heating oil -- move lower with crude. The only fuel price that has remained strong is jet fuel.
What is market structure saying about crude oil today?
The last time crude oil was in a contango, the active month price traded in a range from $77-$90 per barrel. The recent quick and decisive destruction of a backwardation that lasted over two years may well be a sign that crude oil has not yet found a bottom. In markets, the trend is your friend. The trend in crude oil and crude oil spreads could be flashing an important signal -- crude oil is heading lower.
With the bulls washed out of the market and open interest at the lowest levels of the year, perhaps it is time to wait for the shorts to come back. If crude oil drops to a level where new production is not economic, prices should find a bottom. In that case, crude oil might once again be more responsive to traditionally bullish geopolitical events. In the meantime, keep your eyes on the entire crude oil picture -- the price of active month crude oil, product prices and the deferred spreads. If crude oil spreads move into a contango, lower prices are ahead and consumers will be dancing all the way to the bank.

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I will post my EW chart for Crude oil shortly as I just can’t hv a good access to my office server’s database , as I will only be discharged from the hospital by tomorrow noon time, …. Thanks God.

Good Night and happy trading …….. bye………….

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-02 23:10 | Report Abuse

take care abang yong888,

wish u all de best!

warm regards,
duit

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-03 09:34 | Report Abuse

Very good morning to you abang yong888,

Welcome home!
Wanna go fishing today? I wanna fish some peacock and piranha today.

Piranha - PUC, WINTONI
Peacock - GOODWAY, ECPNBHD

Tell me if u wanna go fishing as well.

Happy trading!

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-03 10:14 | Report Abuse

duitKWSPkita , adik Duit, good morning,

You must be the very first to read my above posting....., and I think you hv been waiting for my posting since last week.........., i am sorry for this late delivery.

I really don't mind whether you are superlady or superman, as i respect and appreciate every individual who are God's creation.

I hv a rare opportunity to re-assess/ redefine the meaning of life since I hv 4 days of peaceful/quiet utopia on the hospital's bed.. In fact , I hv almost 24 hrs of lost consciousness last week, nearly saying good bye to this beautiful world.....,..
I will curtail many of my involvements in various companies, websites, training activities, But I will expand and continue my work on Charity activities of all types instead .......
But I still think our lives are too beautiful to be missed, just like the glorious morning sunlight, and We must enjoy life to its fullest.

I will be discharged from hospital today and my dad will be alright to be back to KL by this weekend.

Wishing you happy and be beautiful always lor....... will chat with you later,....... Happy trading and bye........., bye

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-03 10:21 | Report Abuse

""""""But I will expand and continue my work on Charity activities of all types instead .......""""""


you are what you create! SALUTE! Must always sacrifice ourselves for others!

bring my "best luck" together with you and to your daddy too. Support u always!


yes yes yes.... I hav waited for so long about ur crude oil analysis. I wan to learn I wan to compare your findings with mine. WE SHALL NOT take things for granted as US FED and China, HONGKONG have "activated" the market crash alarm last week. The slow down of Crude oil demand reflected the early sign of market melt down.

I will post a long long essay in sooner.

Have a nice day ahead!

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-03 21:31 | Report Abuse

Do you know how much it costs to produce one barrel of oil ?????

Oil is the single most traded commodity on our planet. As some derivative of oil can be found in nearly all products of daily life, it is hardly possible to exaggerate the importance of oil for our civilization.

Not all enterprises that are called "oil companies" actually produce oil. The oil and gas industry is commonly divided into three parts: upstream, midstream and downstream. Only the upstream industry (also called E&P - exploration and production) produces oil. Midstream is active in transportation and downstream is involved in refining of crude oil. Most companies are involved in more than one of these sectors.

Companies active in upstream can be roughly divided into two groups: NOCs and IOCs.

IOC is standing for International Oil Company. Here one can find well-known names like Exxon Mobil, Shell or BP . The operations of these companies are not confined to a particular region, so they produce a variety of different blends. All of these companies are traded publicly, so it is easy to get detailed and reliable information about their figures as they have to publish them in their annual report.

NOCs are National Oil Companies. Among this group are giants like Saudi Aramco, Pemex or China National Petroleum Corporation. Some of these companies are totally government-owned (Saudi Aramco, KPC). There also exists some kind of hybrid, a company that had once been state-owned but was then partially privatized. In this case the government still holds a certain amount of shares, normally sufficient for blocking minority. NOCs generally tend to confine their operations to their country of origin. It is much harder to get information about their production and cost data. Hence, I will confine myself in the evaluation of production costs on IOCs.

The oil and gas industry is a very concentrated industry. As a newcomer would need a lot of money and know-how to start its operations, moat is very deep. Hence, the number of companies in this sector remains very stable and most enterprises have decade-long experience.

Oil is hardly ever produced as pure liquid. Normally it comes as a mixture with natural gas and gas condensate. Although I only consider companies here that mainly lift oil, they also produce significant amounts of gas. Hence, it does not make much sense to apply costs to the production of oil alone. To deal with this issue the concept of barrel oil equivalent (BOE) has been perceived. 6000 cubic feet of gas at standard conditions are about one boe. All costs mentioned below refer to one boe, meaning that are the costs related to the production of 1 bbl of oil, 6000 scf of natural gas or a combination of both.

Cost model

Commonly, costs are divided in costs that can directly be related to production (cost of sales) and costs that cannot directly be related to output (overhead). However, many oil companies are also active in downstream and midstream or other economic sectors (e.g. Exxon Mobil in chemical engineering). Hence, I have divided sales, general and administration expenses (SG&A) by total revenues and multiplied it with the revenue of the E&P division to get SG&A for E&P. I did the same for any similar type of cost (marketing expenses, R&D) and for financial expenses. Depreciation of assets, on the other hand, can be directly linked to oil production.

Costs of sales are divided into 3 sub-categories:

Exploration costs
Lifting costs
Non-income related taxes
Lifting costs are the costs associated with the operation of oil and gas wells to bring hydrocarbons to the surface after wells (facilities necessary for the production of oil) have been drilled. This figure includes labor costs, electricity costs and maintenance costs.

Exploration costs are costs related to all attempts to find hydrocarbons. This category includes cost for geological surveys and scientific studies as well as drilling costs.

Non-income related taxes: as production of hydrocarbons is such a lucrative business, governments also want to have their shares. There exists an abundance of different model how the state can profit from hydrocarbon production (profit sharing, royalties, etc.).

It might be, that different companies use different categories for the same type of expenses, but eventually the sum of all costs should be their total cost for producing 1 boe.

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-03 21:31 | Report Abuse

Application on the 4 most important IOCs
I have applied the cost model on the world's 4 most important IOCs: Exxon Mobil, BP, Chevron and Shell. Together they were responsible for 9% of the world's oil production in 2012. I only have used the figures from their annual statement for 2013.
The results can be found in the list below:
Total costs: ExxonBobil 37.88 ,, BP, 43.38,, Chevron 38.37,.. Shell 41.28 ( in $/boe)
Implications for the investor
Total costs per boe for the 4 most important IOCs moved in a similar range with small advantages for Exxon Mobil and Chevron, while BP and Shell had slightly higher production costs. I want to note that I did not include any impairment in my calculation. I also did not take into account the costs related to BP's Deepwater Horizon accident, which are still significant. The aftermath of this incident, combined with the highest production costs among the biggest oil producers, makes BP the least attractive investment in this group.
Additionally, the results suggest a lower boundary for the oil price. It can never fall below production costs in the long term. It is reasonable to assume that other IOCs will also have similar cost per boe. Hence, it is highly unrealistic for oil prices to fall below $50 (if one adds a certain profit margin). Lifting costs and exploration costs are rising, as companies went for the easy-to-reach oil reserves first. This tendency was especially visible in the period between 2011 and 2013, when average lifting costs for the 4 major IOCs rose by 26.7%.


happy trading

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-03 21:41 | Report Abuse

Hahahha..... well done! complete petroleum system and petrochemical industry lecture by Maha guru yong888.


I wanna be ur first murid to learn about oil & gas industry.

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-03 21:50 | Report Abuse

duitKWSPkita
Aiyooo, adik,i am surprised that you are my silent reader and strong supporter.. Thanks, but i am not a guru lor..... hihi, we share what i know lah........ hahah, how are you ??

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-03 22:02 | Report Abuse

Hi yong888,

good that you are fully discharged and charged with market energy now.

Yes yes yes.... I am everyone's silent reader especially like a hantu gadis following you... Faster tell me u r frightened now.

Actually I m silent reader for most of the experts here. I am quite new in this market so must make sure I learn new things everyday.

maha guru. when free may I invite you to my kindergarten analysis at http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/901291335.jsp?fp=10

I know it is very lousy work. I really hope to get your comment so I can improve myself.

Thanks in advance abang yong888 for ur kind feedback.

Posted by motomoto > 2014-09-03 22:04 | Report Abuse

Dear sifus... pls kindly advise on censof.

Proposed warrants issue? is there any effect?

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-03 22:05 | Report Abuse

My Next posting will be :-

"The Economic outlook of EU in next 3 years".............

Happy trading and good night to you all.........., bye bye

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-03 22:07 | Report Abuse

sorry abang yong888,

very sorry to tell that I got nothing good..... nothing I can share with you..... I m still in learning stage. Jz like a sponge now....

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-03 22:11 | Report Abuse

abang yong888,

May I add some points? Please correct me if I m wrong since drilling & exploration and lifting costs are "trade secret" in the commodities world. Do you think is it possible for ExxonMobil they "purposely" declare "higher than actual" total cost even though their actual cost is much lower.

Rationale is they have pretty much "sweeter" crude so they will strategies to declare higher cost to create "barganing power of supplier" in the market.


Ohhhh no... I might be too childish to think overly. Thanks for your kind clarification.

Happy trading!

Posted by chiongster1234 > 2014-09-03 22:18 | Report Abuse

Sini oil n gas post a? Well done Yong, wish you recover well and take a good rest.

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-03 23:04 | Report Abuse

duitKWSPkita ,

adik, i hv just post my comment on Boilermech in your thread.

Adik Duit, it is possible for Exxon Mobile to declare inflated figures for some specific purpose...... but if you look at the other 3 IOC members,the average costing is still quite near 40 dollars/barrel, it shall serve as a guideline/ baseline......

Happy trading

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-03 23:05 | Report Abuse

chiongster1234,

thank you

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-03 23:07 | Report Abuse

motomoto ,

will reply your post tomorrow,

thank you

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-03 23:09 | Report Abuse

thanks abang yong888,

rest well.

see u in battle field tomorrow.

good night!

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-03 23:12 | Report Abuse

adik Duit, good night....... bye

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-04 00:36 | Report Abuse

my top pick for today daytrading (Thursday):-

Glotec
Frontkn
Pmcorp
Wintoni
DGB
Tenaga & Tenaga-C7
Mahsing & Mahsing-WA
SUMATEC-WB (Shorting),

will hv updates on them while trading IS in progress........

happy trading to you all

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-04 00:51 | Report Abuse

For my reader who wants to know some basic Elliott wave (EW), PLS GO TO THE LINKS BELOW :---

http://proelliottwave.com/free-elliott-wave-resources/elliott-wave-principle-basics/

http://www.slideshare.net/shaned30/traders-worldmagazine-elliottwaveunveiledwwwdl4allcom?related=1

more links will be shown later.....

happy trading, good night .... bye bye,...

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-04 17:08 | Report Abuse

Respected expert insider,

Could you please guide me this?

Trillion thanks abang yong888.



Posted by duitKWSPkita > Aug 31, 2014 11:02 AM | Report Abuse X
Dear Respected aBang yong888,

Good day to you. May I consult you something? I believe in your superman networking could give me a help.

I would like to learn more about "Blackout Periods" aka "Closed Period" stated ai Bursa Main Market LR Chapter 14 if not mistaken.

Referring to the Chapter 14. Part B- Definitions under the Context at (b) (1) and (2) the "closed period" means a period commencing 30 calendar days before the targeted date of announcement up to the date o fthe announcment of the following to the Excahnge-

(b)(1) - in relation to a listed issuer, its quarterly results; or
(b)(2) - in relation to a listed issuer which is a collective investment scheme, the fund's quarterly results or annual reports;

---------------------------------------------------------------------
AFter I vet through the terminology and definition of "dealing" I could not find the clear statement/clause for "dealing in announcemnt of restructuring". Please read my question as below:

1) Is the upliftment PN17 falls under Chapter 14, "If NOT" then the substancial shareholder probably can manipulate to BRING UP(pre-announcement) or BRING DOWN sharply(few days before PN17 approval information in order to vacumm back those shares in lowest price).

2) In your view, do you think our nation's trading regulation ie Chapter 14 Dealings in listed securities need to be reviewed? I believe you are fully aware of recent complanints to Bursa Malaysia about the abusement of Closed Period trading as many listed company top management lift up the price(they knew the good result will be announced) and perform "SELL ON NEWS".......Again, many investors kena trapped!



Million thanks to you in advance for your valuable times for explanation. I wish to learn more and more from you.

Best Regards,
newbie duit

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-04 23:14 | Report Abuse

duitKWSPkita ,

adik , just read your above posting......

1) The announcement of pn17 status is not covered in chapter 14 of the Bursa's act.Yeap, you are spot on, that is what you saw recently on Ho Hup and Sumatec , All the directors are FAT CATS now.

.... let's look at the criteria for uplifting PN17 status,...

5.2 If a PN17 Company undertakes a regularization plan which will not result in a significant change in the business direction or policy of the PN17 Company, it must –
(a) submit to the Exchange the plan and obtain the Exchange’s approval to implement the plan within 12 months from the date of the First Announcement;
(b) complete the implementation of the plan within 6 months from the date the plan is approved by the Exchange. However, for cases which involve court proceedings, a PN17 Company has up to 12 months from the date the plan is approved by the Exchange, to complete the implementation of the plan; and
(c) record a net profit in 2 consecutive quarterly results immediately after the completion of the implementation of the plan. In this regard, the PN17 Company must ensure that the relevant quarterly results are subjected to a limited review by an external auditor before they are announced to the Exchange.

Note: it is extremely easy to "make" a "good" financial report , even achieving a EPS 0f RM 0.002 is good enough...( for Sumatec, her average EPS for her latest 2 qtrly report is RM0.0015) .

The problem is on the Enforcement , as the classifications on "sensitive information" rule as highlighted in Chapter 14 is sufficient.



2) On the so called dealings in Closed period / Off market deals are so rampant recently, an effective enforcement is the only solution to clean up our present mess... Our Bursa regulation rules on Chapter 14, are almost the copy cat of London stock exchange , with some modifications to suit Malaysia ........

so we need neutral / impartial and hard working Bursa officers to do a good job.......

Happy trading

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-04 23:49 | Report Abuse

Global economic outlook......(part 1 on USA)

Historically, August tends to be a quiet month characterized by lackluster trading and/or an overall decline in prices, sometimes precipitously in both areas. There is one exception however, depending on the macroeconomic health of the US economy.

In financial trading, August can either strengthen the trend preceding it, especially in the case of cyclical bull markets, or August can paint a bleak picture of what's to come. Within global macro circles, market behavior during the eight month of the year is examined relative to index fund inflows. While it's understandable for volume to drop-off when most of the financial industry vacations in August because the school year is about to commence,

With the Bears Away the Bulls Can Play: Identifying a Cyclical Bull Market

If the overall economy is not only healthy, but firmly in the midst of recovering from the depths of a deep recession, the data should show a continued inflow of new money in index funds. Present indicators suggest the economy is firing on all cylinders. Coupled with a lack of regulatory intervention (i.e. tightening monetary and/or fiscal policies), the economy will continue to show improvements both in employment and in rising incomes. The net effect is continued capital flows into index funds, and as recent data shows, August saw significant inflows. As global macro practitioners, this little nugget of knowledge is crucial. The general health of the stock market, even as far back as the Dow Theory, depends on a healthy economy that's creating jobs and raising incomes. If a bull market is genuinely cyclical, the correlation between vacationing traders in August and declining stock prices would be severed. It's been a while since this little qualifier has materialized, but recently released numbers for August inflows presents bulls with a strong case for a cyclical bull market in stocks. Keep in mind however that "cyclical" is a long-term view while traders are more often concerned with the short term picture.

We certainly did see a substantial drop in overall volume for the month of August. Combined with strong fund inflows into index funds, and as you'll read below, massive Chinese household buying of US Treasuries, stocks may have actually experienced an exaggerated rally due to a lack of short selling, a practice most often employed by Wall Street Hedge Funds and generally taken for granted by Main Street as either "un-American" or "anti-capitalistic behavior". Although an upward push in August is good news for the bulls, it should raise alarms in the short term, especially with volatility at extreme lows. A potential counter-move or correction going into October would be healthy, though the degree of any correction depends on the move preceding it. In this particular case, a decline could be so sharp that we may witness another "flash crash", a neo-contemporary phenomenon of market behavior almost guaranteed to re-occur as long as the same micro-structure market regime remains firmly in place. Behavioral finance played an important role in the October crashes of past. It seems to be an accepted truism that markets will fall, often precipitously, in the month of October. This assumption manifests itself into reality compliments of the herd and behavioral economics.

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-04 23:50 | Report Abuse

The Proof is in the Pudding
Proof the economy is firing on all cylinders and the Fed is not rushing to tap the brakes, the dollar jumped to its highest level this year against the yen on Tuesday following strong U.S. economic data coupled with lackluster volume. Concurrently, the yield on 10 year Treasury's rose following the same news.


Markets are disregarding any geo-political risks stemming from Russia and her standoff with Ukraine, as well as beheadings in the Middle East by insane religious fanatics. The real picture was influenced by concerns demand from Europe and China is declining as their economies are growing more vulnerable to a recession. However, the general trend in crude remains sideways prices at these levels can be more effective at taking money out of the system because the effect is almost immediate whereas adjusting the short-end of the curve takes one or two quarters to produce results. This may be why the Fed remains sidelined and isn't worried enough to take any action yet. Should a catalyst push crude towards $150 or higher, it would actually threaten the recovery. In this writer's opinion, the Fed is staying on the sidelines because geo-political tensions are rising in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe. Event with demand from Europe and China declining, as we approach the winter months, refinery output will shift from petroleum to heating oil.
There's also the strengthening US dollar, which could keep a lid on crude prices to offset any geo-political premium. In other words, we may see order through chaos.
Geo-Politics, Declining Demand in China and Europe, Fund Flow Data

In early July, the yield on ten-year US Treasury's was around 2.55%. Yields have fallen further, to around 2.40% at the time of writing, continuing a trend in place since the start of the year, and one which is expected to continue through year-end. US Treasuries are likely benefiting from safe-haven demand. Rising geo-political tensions make US Treasuries an attractive alternative to bunds. Ten-year bunds are currently yielding well under 1%, resulting in record spreads so wide traders are driving trucks through while they can. However, the idea that investors are entering a "risk off" mode would be at odds with the pricing of most other asset classes coupled with measures of implied volatility in particular.
The Variant View
An alternative explanation focuses on other types of flows. It turns out that the reduction in FOMC purchases has not been the only cooler talk. Faced with a slowdown in economic growth, the Chinese have been pushing the renminbi lower during the first half of the year. This has added to foreign demand for US Treasuries if anything. Net purchases of US Treasuries by Chinese residents have been stepped up dramatically in 2014, currently running close to $30 billion per month. Moreover, the US federal government deficit has narrowed dramatically over the past few years thus the net supply of US Treasuries are significantly less now than they once were.
Net Net of it All
The reduction in 10 year US Treasury yields over the past two months has been a surprise, but if employment and inflation continue to firm, then in our judgment 10 year US Treasury yields are more likely to rise than to fall. Until the Fed is well into a tightening cycle, expect stocks to continue what we believe can be defined as a cyclical bull market.

.....HAPPY TRADING

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-05 09:48 | Report Abuse

today picks

Frontkn,
Dnex,
DGB

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-06 06:08 | Report Abuse

Now, the US bull's market has crossed 2000 days' mark, What is next ???? can the S&P 500 BE FURTHER BULLED UP TO 3000 as forecast by Stanley Morgan.?????.....

My next posting is on the way............ happy trading...

bye bye ........... Happy Moon cake festival and do enjoy this DAY WITH YOUR LOVED ONE............

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-06 19:43 | Report Abuse

HAPPY Moon cake Festival to ALL in i3-forum........

....cheers and be happy always....

Wishing you all the best...... bye bye

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-06 21:07 | Report Abuse

Is the major correction in US stock market getting NEARER ?????

The QE #3 is expected to end in October this year. What will be the immediate impact on Stock markets ????

Again the stock markets are forever cyclical, cyclical bulls are always followed by cyclical bears. The average size and duration of a cyclical bull within a sideways-grinding secular bear like we've seen in the stock markets since 2000 is a doubling in 35 months. Today's bull has nearly tripled, up 196.1%, in 66 months! It is far too big and far too old, meaning a selloff's highest-probability outcome is the next cyclical bear.

Cyclical bears tend to cut stock prices in half over a couple years or so, they are dangerous beasts not to be trifled with. And once QE3 is done, there is no more Fed backstop in place to motivate traders to instantly buy every minor dip. the Fed has no room to cut interest rates to arrest a stock-market swoon. And again QE4 is very unlikely in this political environment.

Rising stock markets make Americans feel better about everything, so we are more likely to vote for incumbents for more of the same. But we feel worse when stock markets are weaker, making us more prone to kick out the bums in hopes for change.


The major corrections when QE1 and QE2 ended actually began a little earlier in anticipation, and it is reasonable to expect stock traders to start selling ahead of QE3's rapidly-approaching end too. And since the Fed won't risk the political wrath of the Republicans who will likely soon control the full Congress again, it isn't going to launch a QE4 soon. So any stock selloff won't have any hope of a Fed rescue!

Thus the end of QE3 is exceedingly ominous for these lofty stock markets. A major SPX selloff, whether it is merely a 20% correction or a new cyclical bear, will drive devastating losses in everything from the high-flying momentum stocks to the conservative SPX-tracking ETFs like SPY . And it has been so long since we've seen any material selloffs that the resulting hit to complacent and euphoric sentiment will be massive.

How can you protect yourself in this coming swoon? Buy gold. The entire precious-metals sector was abandoned and left for dead during the Fed's QE3-driven SPX levitation. But alternative investments will return to vogue in a big way once normal stock-market behavior including selloffs resumes. The gains coming in the beaten-down precious-metals sector will be vast as flight capital floods in looking for safe havens.

The big risk of serious inflation igniting thanks to QE's huge monetizations remains too, which will act like rocket fuel for gold. Even when QE3's new buying ends soon, the Fed will still have $3.5t of bonds stuck on its balance sheet! That means $3.5t of new money injected into the economy that could start bidding on goods and services and driving up prices any time until the Fed can unwind its QE bonds bought.

The bottom line is the Fed's third quantitative-easing campaign is due to end in late October. QE3 has massively boosted the stock markets, driving their extraordinary levitation of the past year-and-a-half or so along with the Fed's jawboning. Once QE3 ends, so does the Fed's implied backstop of stocks. Any selloff can't be met with rate cuts , and a new QE4 is extremely risky politically for the Fed.

So the overdue stock-market selling pressure is likely to cascade with the Fed no longer available to arrest it. Major stock-market corrections emerged as both QE1 and QE2 ended, and the stock markets are far more extreme today as QE3 winds down. And once again this end-of-QE selling is likely to start in anticipation of the actual event, an ominous omen for stocks that mirrored QE3's Fed balance-sheet growth.

Watch out the declining path for the major US stock market correction NEAR TERMS........

Happy trading

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-06 22:42 | Report Abuse

Abang yong888,
great great forecast!
so amazing!
thanks abang Yong for great sharing always.

salute,
duit

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-09 06:37 | Report Abuse

Can we start buying Gold and Silver Now ???????

The way that gold moves inversely to the strength of the USD seems to be putting undue pressure on the metal, as we feel like regardless of the dollar's strength, it's a losing battle the paper currency is fighting in the long run

We also watched pricing of the commodity deflate after the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting showed that they were potentially thinking about raising rates sooner. Again, we believe just the opposite should have occurred, and gold should have walked up on these sentiments as equities are likely to be negatively affected from a rate hike.

In addition, we also like silver here. Like aluminum, silver has significant avenues for usage outside of simply being a commodity that people hold. Silver is also being pressured downward towards its lows of the year.

With the geopolitical tensions overseas, we still think gold is a prim and proper hedge for investors. Traditionally, on a global scale, gold has had the most success in holding its value during times of turmoil throughout the world.


The strength of the dollar continues to rise.
We believe the strength in the dollar is to be based on reasonable good fundamentals,and one of them is also due to ECB's asset purchasing plan.

We find the irony of the situation quite funny, actually. Due to the ECB's stimulus, people should be reminded that gold is a great hedge against central banks creating too much paper money. Instead, just the opposite is happening in the U.S., people are moving away from gold. We believe this to be a shortsighted view and continue to believe that gold is an opportunity on the ECB created "fake dollar strength."

There is also the extremely important argument of whether or not banks are moving away from the USD as a reserve currency and buying gold instead .

With gold at its support near $1,275, we are considering a position in the commodity as a hedge for the next couple of years. But then Gold may head into the 1100 region in next 1-2 months. So I will start buying God SLOWLY from now on…….. I will Long Gold / Silver aggressively when Gold is in the 1100 -1000 channel.

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-09 06:49 | Report Abuse

Todate my picks for DAY TRADING :-

Frontkn
Mahsing
DGB
Glutec
AWC
GLANFLO
DIGISTA
INSAS
TENAGA

Happy trading................

Posted by chiongster1234 > 2014-09-09 06:52 | Report Abuse

Buy buy buy, gold gold gold.