Posted by NOBY > 2016-03-09 12:56 | Report Abuse

Which means profit could be even higher since Icon's estimate is 100% hedge at USD 52

===================================================================
Posted by Mun Hong > Mar 9, 2016 12:47 PM | Report Abuse

also 52% of their fuel hedged at USD59 per barrel. u got ur numbers mixed up there. definitely need to correct ur analysis.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-03-09 12:58 | Report Abuse

airplanes are big ticket items.........lots of depreciation and finance charges.....no money for dividends one....every few years, there will be a right issue....good times or bad times.


Tony must sell some shares during good times so he can finance the rights issues.

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-03-09 13:01 | Report Abuse

Epf has been unloading like no tomorrow
Their stake only left with 4.5% @ 127m shares
Each day epf can dispose 26m shares
I believe epf can dispose all witha this week

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2016-03-09 13:28 | Report Abuse

Hi, Icon8888
Nice work you have done there. You clear my mind. Thank you!
Little bit of remarks, i will love you even more if you can adjust the figures, if you think i got a point(since i am very lazy).

1. Dec is the strongest quarter, so maybe you wanna adjust revenue slightly lower.
2. When oil price was higher they collect fuel surcharge. I guess if you substract the fuel surcharge away ( 669M in 2014 ), there will be no/little fuel saving??? (sorry, guys)
Tony already said many times in interviews, when oil price is low, ticket becomes more affordable. The net and/or main effect should be better load factor, lower average variable cost, etc.
However, in the coming quarters you can see the more realistic (sorry to use that word Icon8888) fuel savings as 1. some of the expensive hedge expired, 2. fuel prices did come even lower.
3. Now i can see why Tony is selling, he is just being rational. Previously i said RM6-8 target price is way too much.
4. The loss making associates will always be a problem(S). Airasia has all the resources and lower fuel prices doesn't change that much.

The good news is i got to keep my house(its a joke, ok!?).

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-09 13:32 | Report Abuse

Mun Hong, I have amended to reflect 59

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-03-09 13:39 | Report Abuse

as for me.....fair valuation of an airline in perfect times command a PE of 6......


AAX, no need to sailang...but 50% portfolio is justifiable.

AAX , PE 6 still got room to go. in the case of AAX, last quarter, they say they made 6 c..............PE of 6 means AAX gets to $1.00 even if Tony charges them higher fees.

Posted by r°Moi > 2016-03-09 13:40 | Report Abuse

No dividend... rights issue every few years.... sure or not? Taken a look at the accounts already or not??


Posted by stockmanmy > Mar 9, 2016 12:58 PM | Report Abuse

airplanes are big ticket items.........lots of depreciation and finance charges.....no money for dividends one....every few years, there will be a right issue....good times or bad times.


Tony must sell some shares during good times so he can finance the rights issues.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-03-09 13:42 | Report Abuse

you didn't read Warren Bufett bible?
dont get involved in such capital intensive stuffs.

They will have no dividends, only got rights issues....for expansions during good times, to pay bankers during bad times.




r°Moi > Mar 9, 2016 01:40 PM | Report Abuse

No dividend... rights issue every few years.... sure or not? Taken a look at the accounts already or not??

Posted by speakup > 2016-03-09 13:45 | Report Abuse

crude oil price rising. jet fuel price rising. maybe can play AA another 1 or 2 quarters only.

Posted by Ven Felix > 2016-03-09 13:51 | Report Abuse

stockmanmy, hope your chinwell & keinhin doing well. No more proton Ta yaa

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-03-09 13:51 | Report Abuse

股海無涯
135 posts
Posted by 股海無涯 > Mar 9, 2016 11:15 AM | Report Abuse

icon, good analysis, but jet fuel n crude oil price is diff, normally jet fuel is 10 to 15 usd higher then crude, u are using crude oil price for ur estimation.anyway, there is definitely a big save for airasia


THIS GUY SMART

Posted by Ven Felix > 2016-03-09 13:53 | Report Abuse

Doesnt matter lar,, winner shall take it all. Guess who is he ?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-03-09 13:55 | Report Abuse

THIS GUY SMART...not really.

a really smart chap will marry the daughter AAX and ditch the old mother.(airasia)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-09 13:56 | Report Abuse

Fuel surcharge was removed in January 2015

-------
Monday, 26 January 2015 | MYT 12:31 PM
AirAsia removes fuel surcharges effective Monday

KUALA LUMPUR: Low-cost carrier AirAsia has abolished the fuel surcharge with effect from Monday as crude oil price fell more than 50% since July 2014.

AirAsia said the abolishment of the surcharge was for all its airlines in the group, as well as its low-cost long haul affiliates AirAsia X, Thai AirAsia X and Indonesia AirAsia X, in line with declining global oil prices.

AirAsia’s group CEO Tan Sri Tony Fernandes said This decision was made in November 2014, which was in line with declining global oil prices.

“However, we are only able to implement it now, but we believe removing fuel surcharge and reducing travel costs will be a huge boost to the tourism industry. This will be a plus point for consumers, but the economy will also benefit from this as the tourism industry is a great job creator.”

AirAsia, he said, is a high-value, low-fare airline and it will continue to strive to make flying as affordable as possible.

Fernandes said the abolishment of fuel surcharge would further reduce travel costs and stimulate more demand for travel and tourism.

“With the removal of fuel surcharge from its fares, guests will be able to find domestic flights from as low as RM19 one way all-in, and international flights from RM49 one way all-in,” he said.

AirAsia was the first airline to abolish fuel surcharge for all its domestic and international flights back in 2008, however rocketing fuel prices forced the airline to re-introduce fuel surcharge into its fares in 2011.
TAGS / KEYWORDS:

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2016-03-09 13:57 | Report Abuse

Stockmanmy, you are right! Look closely in the P&L, really nothing left after paying all expenses(if your true business is selling plane tickets only).
As the sage of Omaha says, "0 sum game". His remarks on transportation also very useful, its good for the public but really profitable.
But since it is Tony, maybe he is a little bit better than that. At least you have to give him the credit of never/haven't ask for Right issue (that he can't afford to subscribe).

Posted by Ven Felix > 2016-03-09 13:58 | Report Abuse

Desa, are the smartest human above all creatures.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-09 14:10 | Report Abuse

AAX broke even in previous Q. All profit were exceptional items

I am writing

Posted by r°Moi > 2016-03-09 14:14 | Report Abuse

stockmanmy....why dont you write a piece on AAX too??

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-09 14:14 | Report Abuse

Ya loh

Posted by greatful > 2016-03-09 14:22 | Report Abuse

this person crazy if sell your car and house to buy any share.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-03-09 14:30 | Report Abuse

(Icon) Air Asia - Sell Your Car, Sell Your House. Time To Sailang

Icon, if Airasia cant move up how? You give me back my cars, houses?
I have 2 ferarri, 2 Lamborghini now, 10 terrace houses, 2 condos.
How?
You compensate me?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-03-09 14:31 | Report Abuse

Yes, will replace your paper cars and paper bungalow

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-03-09 14:35 | Report Abuse

is it? Nevermind lah, I burn to you Icon8888. When the Holland call you fallen

Posted by gray > 2016-03-09 14:37 | Report Abuse

zzzzzz. no steam liao...

Posted by gray > 2016-03-09 14:42 | Report Abuse

so boring. i tot got "explode like dynamites"

i take nap liao. if got explode pls call me
018-8899888

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-03-09 16:09 | Report Abuse

gray, I called your number but the lady picked up & said this is Tanjung Rambut.....

I did not finish listening but quickly hang up

Posted by setia2u > 2016-03-09 16:18 | Report Abuse

Thanks Icon8888! Selling cars and house will be too late to get the capital.... call up your credit card customer service and get a CashLine from them faster.

Posted by gray > 2016-03-09 16:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by gray > 2016-03-09 16:30 | Report Abuse

this stock very boring la. eat like sheet also same level.

Posted by 914601117 > 2016-03-09 16:37 | Report Abuse

I will call you SIFU if you wrote this earlier when price was RM 0.80

Posted by gray > 2016-03-09 16:39 | Report Abuse

call me sifu, i wrote at 90c. u can search when it was 90c-1.00 level.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-03-09 16:52 | Report Abuse

no need to write....it is all in the public domain......read the accounts.


no hanky panky one.....all above board, all very proper and approved.



r°Moi > Mar 9, 2016 02:14 PM | Report Abuse

stockmanmy....why dont you write a piece on AAX too??

Posted by tkp2 > 2016-03-09 16:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by andryong > 2016-03-09 17:37 | Report Abuse

he look like very smart but in reality very stupid and he look very stupid but in reality very smart. Is up to you to trust and judge

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-03-09 18:29 | Report Abuse

Icon wrong liao lah. TITLE should be:

ALL IN!! SELL ALL YOUR HOUSES AND CARS to ALL IN AIRASIA
FLYING INTO THE SKY, EVERYONE CAN FLY AND EARN NOW WITH AIRASIA
POTENTIAL 100000000% UPSIDE! SKY IS THE LIMIT WITH EXPANSION

Posted by dragonking > 2016-03-09 18:39 | Report Abuse

with free seats

Posted by i4investor > 2016-03-09 19:25 | Report Abuse

Why the boss sell ah? So good result but still sell the stock...mmm

Posted by i4investor > 2016-03-09 19:27 | Report Abuse

Anyway...my airsia 1.00 purchase still consider very safe...wish for 3.00

Posted by Koon Bee > 2016-03-09 20:37 | Report Abuse

Paperplame so cheapskate

Posted by 2721 > 2016-03-09 20:41 | Report Abuse

Sell Ur underwear as well hahaaha

Posted by bugle > 2016-03-09 21:55 | Report Abuse

yes, a very good writing indeed. your masterpiece is always a good reference for others. i guess lots of people would like to read yours more than others, hahaha, especially there are so many interested shareholders out there. wish everyone can fly!

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2016-03-09 23:50 | Report Abuse

I rerun the numbers again and what puzzle me is that the next quarter they will only make RM180M. And then i realise in fact this quarter they din't make any money if you take away the 728M lease charges recovered or whatever it is. Things will go better going forward but they start from ground zero.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-03-10 02:07 | Report Abuse

icon...


heard of the term garbage in garbage out.....

they paid Price Waterhouse 1 million $ to run the figures.....

why you need to rerun the figures?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-03-10 02:10 | Report Abuse

my dipstick tells me market cap of $5 billion is too much for AA already....

my dipstick made in Mars, very reliable.

Posted by gray > 2016-03-10 02:24 | Report Abuse

icon8888 would want to reinvent the wheel (by cut n paste) and claim as his.

Posted by r°Moi > 2016-03-10 08:18 | Report Abuse

Good morning stockmanmy

O... you know Price Waterhouse ah.. o... very good

Hope you can help r°Moi with this question which have been disturbing r°Moi..


Q: What are the criteria... how long must a debt be overdue.. before Price Waterhouse will ask for an allowance for doubtful debt to be made??

Tq

Posted by VenFx > 2016-03-10 08:25 | Report Abuse

All Icon8888 counter attacker has been more Fake ID, in i3...

Posted by Koon Bee > 2016-03-10 08:33 | Report Abuse

AirAsia will consolidate at range 1.65 - 1.78 for 1 month and move up again

Posted by fayeTan > 2016-03-10 08:47 | Report Abuse

hi icon, what is your assumption for Crude Oil in 2016? As my only concern is AIRASIA may lose money again if Brent recent uptrend continues...

Posted by yeohhh > 2016-03-10 08:49 | Report Abuse

1st, Airasia has hedged 50% of their fuel at USD 59 for year 2016. Therefore, it is actually half leg reached USD59.
2nd, jet fuel price is NOT the crude oil price you saw. Jet oil kerosene is now ard USD $48.

http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Singapore_Jet_Kerosene_Swap_Futures_(Platts)_Futures/JKS