Airasia may drop to around 1.30 Earlier some bought on false hope of a privatisation With no privatisation and oil price going back up..airasia likely to drop back to near previous level Those who low Iq and write low quality report -need to also check airasia debt..its debt and liabilies is around $16.5 billion !!
Airasia need to raise cash from its founder as it need to pay its huge debt.. and no other bank want to borrow them at good rates/terms as easily the huge debt can cause bankruptcy If not because of the lower oil price - airasia would already close to bankrupt Now with oil price going back up.. its a good price to sell airasia Before it go bankrupt
btw, I don't believe that Tony is forking out money to increase his shareholding to 30% (by way of placement)
no tycoon will do that in real life
tycoon like to make big money with small capital (for example : on hind sight, Gamuda issues WE because they anticipate securing huge contract soon).
Tony is not young, he will be stupid to commit so much capital at this stage of his life. If he wants to benefit from the up cycle, he would have tried to do it by warrants (for example : issue new warrants and try to swing a block to himself)
The current price of 1.83 has already assumed or factor in a privatisation exercise which never materialised Hence its a no brainer that it will drop ....
Haiyoyh, kk123 always pick the wrong timing to mop icon8888. R u not noticed that TONY (the whistle blower)going BIG BIG Bet ? Be smart lar buddy. Criticise oso use ur brain ma. i3 Readers here very smart nowaday .
You listen to icon, you go holland first! He needs you to push up the prices for him to unload his shares. Do you have any idea how 老千 works? First, established "credibility", then only the true colour appears. I have seen so many of this 老江湖 in the market. Prepared to be raped front and back again and again by this old fox.
Market expecting nothing less than privatisation ... .if tony is that confident he can go all-in and take it private.. Its a warning sign that no bank want to borrow airasia or its founder any more cash as existingly its debt is already at the highest level ever!!
kk123 Market expecting nothing less than privatisation ... .if tony is that confident he can go all-in and take it private.. Its a warning sign that no bank want to borrow airasia or its founder any more cash as existingly its debt is already at the highest level ever!! 01/04/2016 19:31
AAB can't convince any bank to lend again money to it after having so much debt, far more than its asset value, there is the only move. No future. Sell lah.
Good news or bad news? It depends on your (previous) view on the company.
I think it's good news because i was pessimistic before, now Tony is willing to take responsibility by giving full support to the company, thereby mitigate AA's cashflow problem and reduce earning risk. With enough capital, maybe they can "tahan" until AAI etc get listed, and solve problems like USD loan and buy more oil futures.
Tony is more matured now (hehe!). He talk less on share price and focus on doing his job. This is a good sign! Even if it goes to RM100 he also cannot sell one, un? He was hoping future dividend is enough to cover installment etc. So the 4c is a MUST! (Which may also mean more consistency on payout)
On the other hand, if you think the company is in great shape now, then Tony just rob you.
By the way, did he do something on monday or tuesday? (Small people's heart) Monday unexpectedly went up so much he got to press it down?
The new planes ordered by Airasia has an NEO (New Engine Option), which will improve fuel efficiency by a lot. But it needs lots of $$ to smooth the transition (sell old planes and buy new ones!), and he can't do it without enough bullet. Airasia will be on the lead again once they got this done. (You know, a lot of AA's older "innovation" has been successfully copied by competitors).
No doubt the aviation oil price has come down. However, the competition from other carriers especially Malindo will be getting stronger with time. Malindo is flying to Perth and will start flying to China, India and Japan (direct competition to Air Asia). Other local and foreign full service carriers are also reducing their air ticket prices if you follow their recent advertisements in the mass media. Being an low cost carrier, Air Asia has to be cheaper than them. Therefore, what I can say is that the benefits that it may derive from low aviation oil price is not as great.
Actually the number of air passengers in Asia and the whole world is reducing and expected to stay subdued for short to medium term due to the current regional and world economy conditions. The carriers in competition are fighting to grab the diminishing pool of passengers. Therefore, even if Air Asia may become profitable again, its earning per share will not be high.
Furthermore, the growth rate of Air Asia has tapered off in these few years. Just check which potential market that Air Asia has not explored. In addition to that, its expansions to other countries are not as successful as its home turf, Malaysia. Only AA Malaysia and AA Thai are profitable. AA India, AA Indonesia and AA Philippines are losing money. Their growth in their respective markets are slow as compared to Cebu Pacific and Lion Air. It is also doubtful that they may be profitable there.
I can say that its share price may go up or down being sentiment driven in short term. Medium term to long term, it will be an uphill battle for Air Asia.
The way he's doing it this time "boh swee." He shouldn't be allowed an issue of new shares, which causes dilution to other shareholders. If he wants to raise his stake, let him buy up the stock from the market, then there's no dilution to shareholders.
Let's think about what will happen to AA share price next Monday !? Move up due to major shareholder increase its stake through placement new share or move down due to dilution earning.......however, The fact that placement new 16% share at 1.84 is consider fair to retail shareholder as it marks to current market price .
But, these placement share at 1.84 may also limit and spoil AA current share upward momentum, which should be on track to trade above RM 2.00, or some even predict to go up RM 3.00 or RM 4.00.....these is because retail investor maybe perceived TF will get immediate surge profit on his latest placement 16% volume share at 1.84 instantly.....TF have past record dispose its stake under pledge margin account in open market.....if AA share surging now....instantly, TF will profiting immediately which may prompt him to sell his placement share back to open market....
if Tony and co buy share using pleadged collateral but not cash it will not only dilute earning but cause unnecessary margin call if share price drop. Let just wait for more details before jump into conclusion
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Posted by bearbear11 > 2016-04-01 18:39 | Report Abuse
Please check on previous private placement on 2009. Price surge after the right issue.
Analysts positive on AirAsia placement plan
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2009/08/01/analysts-positive-on-airasia-placement-plan/