He is awaken after listening to long long TA lullaby music in his dream...everyday watching price and volume chart up and down....TA is merely a supplement to investors or value traders.
All the Balance Sheet ratios, all the income ratios will not help you to avoid disasters if you have no concept of the PEG ratios.
All the export counters that gave you 6 star ratings on fundamental analysis yet drop 30 to 50% and you lost money on them because you have no concept of PEG .
Have PEG will travel No PEG......100 fundamental analysis will not help you.
I have seen many value investor wannabes but they all fail because they got no PEG.
Of course....if you buy a single project company which have a finite life and value the earnings as if it goes on to infinity...........you are just being arrogant and treats the stock market with disdain.
Why do I have the sense that people in I3 seem to think that stock market analysis starts and stops at FA and TA?
20 formulas and 5 valuation methods will not help you at all if you have no sense of PEG, no sense of business cycles, no sense of the future, no sense of forecasting, ......and being too arrogant.
Stock market do not start and stop at Balance sheet analysis and income statement analysts or even chart analysis.
Stock market is not a Maths problem to be solved
Stock market is about human beings and the future.
The future is unknowable and cannot be quantified.
But some calls themselves a sifu and completely ignores the future and focused on 100 financial analysis of the past using balance sheet ratio and income statement ratios from the past.
Looks impressive but also misleading.
If it is misleading better not to have than to have.
Trump's make America Great will actually destroy all that is good about America.
You don't really appreciate the intention of the writer. Don't think we can above anyone...you know that stock market is the results of actions of human being. Do you think you can escape from emotion being effected through reading news, watching price movement, chi-chat in forum....?
Investment is an art. KC appreciate it so he has demonstrated one of a systematic way to handle his investment without putting too much emotion on it. He just let the system to take care his stocks. Don't you think this is a wise way?
Why do I have the sense that people in I3 seem to think that stock market analysis starts and stops at FA and TA?
20 formulas and 5 valuation methods will not help you at all if you have no sense of PEG, no sense of business cycles, no sense of the future, no sense of forecasting, ......and being too arrogant.
Stock market do not start and stop at Balance sheet analysis and income statement analysts or even chart analysis.
Stock market is not a Maths problem to be solved
Stock market is about human beings and the future.
Sometimes, we base on our instinct to make a buy and sell decision. If you don't have sufficient knowledge, experience and hardwork FA &TA, how can you rely on your instinct? You still can feel it but the question is how reliable of your feel. Use guts all the times?
One person I know is KC Chong. Do you have other people in mind? Perhaps should analyse whether his recommended counters has good future like what he analysed base on past.
Posted by stockmanmy > Jul 7, 2016 01:11 PM | Report Abuse The future is unknowable and cannot be quantified.
But some calls themselves a sifu and completely ignores the future and focused on 100 financial analysis of the past using balance sheet ratio and income statement ratios from the past.
Looks impressive but also misleading.
If it is misleading better not to have than to have.
CPteh. Making money in stock market is just the end products in investment. What important is the process (knowledge, skills, experience and strategy) you have undertaken which would lead you to money makes money. It takes time to develop a system suit to yourself and a proven system through some track records .
Start with crawling, stand-up and follow by walking before running. If you don't believe then you try to jump queue and see what would happen next...probably in next 24 months. You could make money initially due to lucky by following someone recommendation but the lucky star won't get along at all times. Instead, your greed would sneak in leading you to longkang.
Building a strong foundation will lead your base stronger and be more conservative in investing hence you won't over confident. Your knowledge, skills and experience will be accumulated over days by days. If you are really frank to yourself, you can have own self review your performance to identify the pitfalls.
BY the time you have acquired sufficient knowledge, skills, experience and enough comparison stocks in a industry, you would understand PER, Gearing, EV, DY....can be very flexible in application. Low doesn't mean give you an edge every time. High doesn't mean not good. It all depends on the situation at that time..lol
please don't get emotional over criticism on what you think is correct. learn to take people's criticism constructively, and you'll find out the other truth out there.
if taking stockmanmy's comment that PEG is in the guts, then my gut tells me that the G in PEG is definitely one of the factors in what made Warren Buffet where he is today.
Be careful of stepping on a landmine! It is a disaster if you have identified G in a wrong counter....very tricky one. There are many good examples witnessed in the past few months. lol
Don't play generic phrases here la. Here is not a corporate world. You won't get much benefits from this forum even though you play taichi unless you intention is to become famous here and give seminars to newbies charging a fee.
as long as I have pointed out that the PEG has been under-utilised by the technicians who uses FA and TA and sifus who charges newbies.,,,my job is done.
Stockman. We all know that PEG is very important for value traders. To be a real value trader, you have to do extensive of research of the companies. It would have taken a lot of time. You think so easy meh? You got to do a lot of recording of some companies: - grow is still on going. - have reached maturity stage. - temporary halt growth. - going down to Holand. - making a return. - attached with high gearing and no dividend... I don't think many got the time to keep track so many companies. You got to keep update your database....Sorry to say that...Try to do it yourself in real life then you can taste it. From my observation in exchanging information in Tek Seng forum, you gave me an impression that theoretically, you like growth companies but you refuse to take higher risks due to gearing, business operation....People ask you to suggest a PEG company but you played taichi... Come on! this is a cybercafe for chit-chat. what were you worrying? Are you an accountant?
If you are a very defensive PEG investors then you can go for blue chips like Carlsbg, Dlady, F&N, Heim, Nestle, PBB, Litrak but don't blame for high PER this and that.
Aiyoo, hard to find a selfless sifu around. Majority of the sifu here are reluctant to impart their expertise knowledge to us on FOC as they worry that once their winning system is being propagated n popularized just like EW, fib,bol, etc, their rice bowl will be jeopardized. Hard to get a wise man here. Look like have to search elsewhere or paying tuition fee to be a smart investor. A sad reality the newbies like us is facing. Sigh.
Kheng. If you really got the passion to learn and willing to go through the hard work in investing. You would find the way. It doesn't help much if you are relying on a sifu recommendation. You should get a mentor instead of sifu. haha
I like sifu tj's humor and integrity trait displayed albeit some may think that he's talking crap at times or his behavior pretty close to insanity. I love his straight-forward nonsensical talk to spike up my day.
a quick rule of thumb is 1 to 1. that is.....if you are convinced the G will be 20% for each of next few years, a PER of 20 is justifiable.
Up_down > Jul 7, 2016 09:55 PM | Report Abuse
If you are a very defensive PEG investors then you can go for blue chips like Carlsbg, Dlady, F&N, Heim, Nestle, PBB, Litrak but don't blame for high PER this and that.
a quick rule of thumb is 1 to 1. that is.....if you are convinced the G will be 20% for each of next few years, a PER of 20 is justifiable.
but if the G is negative , a quick rule of law is -2 to -1 for if a share drops by 50% you need the share to go up by 100% to reach the starting point.
any thing with a negative G is very very punishing.
a quick rule of thumb is 1 to 1. that is.....if you are convinced the G will be 20% for each of next few years, a PER of 20 is justifiable.
but if the G is negative , a quick rule of law is -2 to -1 for if a share drops by 50% you need the share to go up by 100% to reach the starting point.
any thing with a negative G is very very punishing.
illustration,
if a share trades at PER 10 but G is expected to be -10%...then if you take the highest profits and the lowest target price, you must be prepared to expect a PER as low as 8.
if a share trades at PER 10 but G is expected to be -20%...then if you take the highest profits and the lowest target price, you must be prepared to expect a PER as low as 6.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
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Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-07-07 05:46 | Report Abuse
Finally CP Teh started learning instead of dreaming
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