Icon8888

Finally CP Teh started learning instead of dreaming

Give you a Big Like

Many of us here support and encourage your latest endeavor

2016-07-07 05:46

Icon8888

I am not saying that FA is more superior than your TA. All I am saying is that both also work

You should learn to make money from it

2016-07-07 05:47

yfchong

Bravo................, cheers

2016-07-07 06:14

Up_down

He is awaken after listening to long long TA lullaby music in his dream...everyday watching price and volume chart up and down....TA is merely a supplement to investors or value traders.

2016-07-07 09:58

stockmanmy

PEG is underutilized

All the Balance Sheet ratios, all the income ratios will not help you to avoid disasters if you have no concept of the PEG ratios.


All the export counters that gave you 6 star ratings on fundamental analysis yet drop 30 to 50% and you lost money on them because you have no concept of PEG .

Have PEG will travel
No PEG......100 fundamental analysis will not help you.



I have seen many value investor wannabes but they all fail because they got no PEG.

2016-07-07 12:26

stockmanmy

Of course....if you buy a single project company which have a finite life and value the earnings as if it goes on to infinity...........you are just being arrogant and treats the stock market with disdain.

2016-07-07 12:31

stockmanmy

Why do I have the sense that people in I3 seem to think that stock market analysis starts and stops at FA and TA?



20 formulas and 5 valuation methods will not help you at all if you have no sense of PEG, no sense of business cycles, no sense of the future, no sense of forecasting, ......and being too arrogant.



Stock market do not start and stop at Balance sheet analysis and income statement analysts or even chart analysis.


Stock market is not a Maths problem to be solved


Stock market is about human beings and the future.

2016-07-07 12:52

stockmanmy

The future is unknowable and cannot be quantified.

But some calls themselves a sifu and completely ignores the future and focused on 100 financial analysis of the past using balance sheet ratio and income statement ratios from the past.


Looks impressive but also misleading.

If it is misleading better not to have than to have.



Trump's make America Great will actually destroy all that is good about America.

2016-07-07 13:11

VenFx

以上 的 说法 有欠完整性 和 有 否认性
股市 其实 不复杂 不需 Rocket science

我们 需要的 是 计算
可承担 风险 先
再 预算 回酬 与 风险
和 时间 成本

2016-07-07 13:14

Up_down

Stockman.

You don't really appreciate the intention of the writer. Don't think we can above anyone...you know that stock market is the results of actions of human being. Do you think you can escape from emotion being effected through reading news, watching price movement, chi-chat in forum....?

Investment is an art. KC appreciate it so he has demonstrated one of a systematic way to handle his investment without putting too much emotion on it. He just let the system to take care his stocks. Don't you think this is a wise way?


Posted by stockmanmy > Jul 7, 2016 12:52 PM | Report Abuse

Why do I have the sense that people in I3 seem to think that stock market analysis starts and stops at FA and TA?



20 formulas and 5 valuation methods will not help you at all if you have no sense of PEG, no sense of business cycles, no sense of the future, no sense of forecasting, ......and being too arrogant.



Stock market do not start and stop at Balance sheet analysis and income statement analysts or even chart analysis.


Stock market is not a Maths problem to be solved


Stock market is about human beings and the future.

2016-07-07 13:21

VenFx

来去 也是, 在 什么 时候 做 什么 决定

入市前 - 探测 (潜能 和 风险)
在市时 - 跟踪 (继续持有 或 套利 亭损)
下市后 - 等待 (寻找 新的 发展 势头)

2016-07-07 13:26

stockmanmy

uodown

any discussion of stocks and shares is incomplete without PEG

if it is incomplete, it is misleading
if it is misleading, better not to have than to have.


Trump's make America Great will actually destroy all that is good about America.

2016-07-07 14:17

stockmanmy

silom
PEG is in the guts.
feel it,

2016-07-07 14:49

Up_down

Sometimes, we base on our instinct to make a buy and sell decision. If you don't have sufficient knowledge, experience and hardwork FA &TA, how can you rely on your instinct? You still can feel it but the question is how reliable of your feel. Use guts all the times?

2016-07-07 14:59

Icon8888

Lively discussions

2016-07-07 15:28

donfollowblindly

One person I know is KC Chong. Do you have other people in mind? Perhaps should analyse whether his recommended counters has good future like what he analysed base on past.

Posted by stockmanmy > Jul 7, 2016 01:11 PM | Report Abuse
The future is unknowable and cannot be quantified.

But some calls themselves a sifu and completely ignores the future and focused on 100 financial analysis of the past using balance sheet ratio and income statement ratios from the past.

Looks impressive but also misleading.

If it is misleading better not to have than to have.

2016-07-07 15:42

stockmanmy

Have PEG will travel

the PE is PEG is quantifiable and you can put in a formula.

the G in PEG is not easily quantifiable but if you ignore it.....all your 100 formulas based on historical data will only mislead you.

2016-07-07 17:42

stockmanmy

the G in PEG is not easily quantifiable but if you ignore it.....all your 100 formulas based on historical data will only mislead you.


and if the G is negative and you ignore it....that can be the end of your investment life.

2016-07-07 18:03

Up_down

CPteh. Making money in stock market is just the end products in investment. What important is the process (knowledge, skills, experience and strategy) you have undertaken which would lead you to money makes money. It takes time to develop a system suit to yourself and a proven system through some track records .

Start with crawling, stand-up and follow by walking before running. If you don't believe then you try to jump queue and see what would happen next...probably in next 24 months. You could make money initially due to lucky by following someone recommendation but the lucky star won't get along at all times. Instead, your greed would sneak in leading you to longkang.

Building a strong foundation will lead your base stronger and be more conservative in investing hence you won't over confident. Your knowledge, skills and experience will be accumulated over days by days. If you are really frank to yourself, you can have own self review your performance to identify the pitfalls.

2016-07-07 18:27

stockmanmy

silom

the old man never experienced G

2016-07-07 18:32

yfchong

A lot of positive comments is a begining. Cheers.

2016-07-07 18:33

Up_down

BY the time you have acquired sufficient knowledge, skills, experience and enough comparison stocks in a industry, you would understand PER, Gearing, EV, DY....can be very flexible in application. Low doesn't mean give you an edge every time. High doesn't mean not good. It all depends on the situation at that time..lol

2016-07-07 18:40

stockmanmy

It all depends on the situation at that time..lol


it all depends on the G Force in PEG.

2016-07-07 18:45

sting79

please don't get emotional over criticism on what you think is correct. learn to take people's criticism constructively, and you'll find out the other truth out there.

if taking stockmanmy's comment that PEG is in the guts, then my gut tells me that the G in PEG is definitely one of the factors in what made Warren Buffet where he is today.

2016-07-07 18:51

Up_down

Be careful of stepping on a landmine! It is a disaster if you have identified G in a wrong counter....very tricky one. There are many good examples witnessed in the past few months. lol

2016-07-07 18:54

Cakapkosong121

You are so wise, can you help us here? Can you give us shares that meet PEG?

Posted by stockmanmy > Jul 7, 2016 06:03 PM | Report Abuse

the G in PEG is not easily quantifiable but if you ignore it.....all your 100 formulas based on historical data will only mislead you.


and if the G is negative and you ignore it....that can be the end of your investment life.

2016-07-07 18:58

stockmanmy

Can you give us shares that meet PEG?

your money...you do it.

2016-07-07 19:17

Up_down

Don't play generic phrases here la. Here is not a corporate world. You won't get much benefits from this forum even though you play taichi unless you intention is to become famous here and give seminars to newbies charging a fee.

2016-07-07 19:56

stockmanmy

as long as I have pointed out that the PEG has been under-utilised by the technicians who uses FA and TA and sifus who charges newbies.,,,my job is done.

2016-07-07 20:17

Up_down

Stockman. We all know that PEG is very important for value traders. To be a real value trader, you have to do extensive of research of the companies. It would have taken a lot of time. You think so easy meh? You got to do a lot of recording of some companies:
- grow is still on going.
- have reached maturity stage.
- temporary halt growth.
- going down to Holand.
- making a return.
- attached with high gearing and no dividend...
I don't think many got the time to keep track so many companies. You got to keep update your database....Sorry to say that...Try to do it yourself in real life then you can taste it. From my observation in exchanging information in Tek Seng forum, you gave me an impression that theoretically, you like growth companies but you refuse to take higher risks due to gearing, business operation....People ask you to suggest a PEG company but you played taichi... Come on! this is a cybercafe for chit-chat. what were you worrying? Are you an accountant?

2016-07-07 21:37

Up_down

If you are a very defensive PEG investors then you can go for blue chips like Carlsbg, Dlady, F&N, Heim, Nestle, PBB, Litrak but don't blame for high PER this and that.

2016-07-07 21:55

Icon8888

Everybody knows G is important

However whether can get it right is a different story

Having said so, you don't need to get it right all the time

If you can get one out of let's say 5 right, and bet big on that one when further confirmation comes in, you can make big money

That is the best way to punt for me

2016-07-07 22:00

Kheng

Aiyoo, hard to find a selfless sifu around. Majority of the sifu here are reluctant to impart their expertise knowledge to us on FOC as they worry that once their winning system is being propagated n popularized just like EW, fib,bol, etc, their rice bowl will be jeopardized. Hard to get a wise man here. Look like have to search elsewhere or paying tuition fee to be a smart investor. A sad reality the newbies like us is facing. Sigh.

2016-07-07 22:06

tjhldg

Hahahahahh ...wanna cari sifu ka .. Pi tg rambutan or masuk hutan la ... Cari salah tempat Liao la u
Hehehehheh

2016-07-07 22:26

Up_down

Kheng. If you really got the passion to learn and willing to go through the hard work in investing. You would find the way. It doesn't help much if you are relying on a sifu recommendation. You should get a mentor instead of sifu. haha

2016-07-07 22:26

Kheng

I like sifu tj's humor and integrity trait displayed albeit some may think that he's talking crap at times or his behavior pretty close to insanity. I love his straight-forward nonsensical talk to spike up my day.

2016-07-07 22:43

stockmanmy

a quick rule of thumb is 1 to 1.
that is.....if you are convinced the G will be 20% for each of next few years, a PER of 20 is justifiable.


Up_down > Jul 7, 2016 09:55 PM | Report Abuse

If you are a very defensive PEG investors then you can go for blue chips like Carlsbg, Dlady, F&N, Heim, Nestle, PBB, Litrak but don't blame for high PER this and that.

2016-07-08 10:08

stockmanmy

a quick rule of thumb is 1 to 1.
that is.....if you are convinced the G will be 20% for each of next few years, a PER of 20 is justifiable.


but if the G is negative , a quick rule of law is -2 to -1 for if a share drops by 50% you need the share to go up by 100% to reach the starting point.



any thing with a negative G is very very punishing.

2016-07-08 10:15

stockmanmy

a quick rule of thumb is 1 to 1.
that is.....if you are convinced the G will be 20% for each of next few years, a PER of 20 is justifiable.


but if the G is negative , a quick rule of law is -2 to -1 for if a share drops by 50% you need the share to go up by 100% to reach the starting point.



any thing with a negative G is very very punishing.


illustration,

if a share trades at PER 10 but G is expected to be -10%...then if you take the highest profits and the lowest target price, you must be prepared to expect a PER as low as 8.




if a share trades at PER 10 but G is expected to be -20%...then if you take the highest profits and the lowest target price, you must be prepared to expect a PER as low as 6.

2016-07-08 10:29

stockmanmy

and of course given enough time , any thing with a consistent negative G gets to zero.

2016-07-09 11:12