Posted by Flintstones > 2016-10-11 13:36 | Report Abuse

Wah, the article ended with a cool quote. Thumbs up!

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-10-11 13:48 | Report Abuse

Price has gone up too much
No company can grow forever especially klse company mostly sustain for a short terms of 1 year

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-10-11 13:53 | Report Abuse

In views of election coming closer
Crude oil will be stable, no one want to see Dow Jone collapse ahead of election
And the president want to protect the country from importing goods, build a wall
:)

Posted by soojinhou > 2016-10-11 13:56 | Report Abuse

Steady, u dare to stick your neck out and make a precise forecast. Power to u!

Posted by Jeff Lee > 2016-10-11 13:59 | Report Abuse

i forecast tguan to have a EPS of 70 cts

Posted by Jeff Lee > 2016-10-11 14:00 | Report Abuse

next 2 quarters 18 cts , 18 cts = 36 cts

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-10-11 14:01 | Report Abuse

Will it fall like a Geshen again?

Posted by Jeff Lee > 2016-10-11 14:02 | Report Abuse

geshen is not an established company

thong guan is in the line for almost 30 yrs

It is different

Posted by YiStock > 2016-10-11 14:05 | Report Abuse

soojinhou,

Trying my luck.

Posted by soojinhou > Oct 11, 2016 01:56 PM | Report Abuse

Steady, u dare to stick your neck out and make a precise forecast. Power to u!

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-10-11 14:06 | Report Abuse

It used to be lcth and it pass the baton to the geshen next baton will be?

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-10-11 14:11 | Report Abuse

:)

Posted by chankp7010 > 2016-10-11 14:29 | Report Abuse

For YiStock, your article is indeed very detailed and in-depth with so much technical information that I am hardly able to comprehend. Your conclusion on core earning at around RM20-25 millions for Q3 2016 should be realistic. Thank you very much. What about possible losses on disposal of old plant and machinery?

Posted by YiStock > 2016-10-11 14:31 | Report Abuse

chankp7010, tguan machinery are old and i believe has fully depreciated in value. Therefore, any such disposal should end up with gain. Good example is like Q2 2016

Posted by michaelwong > 2016-10-11 14:58 | Report Abuse

As pertaining to your forecast and explanation with thanks to YiStock , the estimated cored earnings for Q3 could maintained at 20 to 25 millions profits despite with the fluctuations in resins that could be absorbed . So could you roughly account for tguan current valuation eps and its TP standing precisely ?
Thnks bro !

Posted by YiStock > 2016-10-11 15:11 | Report Abuse

michael, i strongly believe following Mr Kcchongnz valuation is the most reliable one. Personally, so far, i choose to hold to believe the management TP of 1 billion market cap.

Posted by michaelwong > 2016-10-11 16:51 | Report Abuse

YiStock , noted with thnks !

Posted by chl1989 > 2016-10-12 00:50 | Report Abuse

YiStock, actually it is not entirely true that resin price moves in tandem with natural gas. In fact, we can produce polyethylene resin from both crude oil and natural gas:
1. Oil > naphtha > ethylene > polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE & HDPE)
2. Gas > ethane > ethylene > polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE & HDPE)

Not to mention the non-conventional way of producing resin i.e. Coal to Olefin technology in China.

Posted by chl1989 > 2016-10-12 00:53 | Report Abuse

Ethylene plays a major role in supporting polyethylene price now. Production cost to convert ethylene to polyethylene is about usd300/mt. But the market spread now is only about usd150/mt.

Posted by chl1989 > 2016-10-12 00:56 | Report Abuse

if not wrong, Q1 average LLDPE price CFR SEA was about USD1100/mt.
Q2 average about USD1200/mt. Q3 average about USD1150/mt.
FYI, LLDPE is used to produce stretch film.

Posted by YiStock > 2016-10-12 08:51 | Report Abuse

chl1989, resin price never move in tandem with natural gas. It is influence by the natural gas movement. Not sure why you think they move in tandem.

in general, resin is a product from natural gas. Currently there is an supply glut in resin and this supply glut is expected to last for quite a long time in view of many new facility is going on line.

Posted by chl1989 > Oct 12, 2016 12:50 AM | Report Abuse

YiStock, actually it is not entirely true that resin price moves in tandem with natural gas. In fact, we can produce polyethylene resin from both crude oil and natural gas:
1. Oil > naphtha > ethylene > polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE & HDPE)
2. Gas > ethane > ethylene > polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE & HDPE)

Not to mention the non-conventional way of producing resin i.e. Coal to Olefin technology in China.

Posted by YiStock > 2016-10-12 08:53 | Report Abuse

When there is a supply glut, the spread will be squeezed. This is common in all commodity i believe.


Posted by chl1989 > Oct 12, 2016 12:53 AM | Report Abuse

Ethylene plays a major role in supporting polyethylene price now. Production cost to convert ethylene to polyethylene is about usd300/mt. But the market spread now is only about usd150/mt.

Posted by YiStock > 2016-10-12 08:55 | Report Abuse

I think your price is the beginning value and end value of Q1 to Q2, not average figures. I'm not sure.

Yeah, LLDPE is for stretch film. And the data i used is based on most comment butene based LLDPE.


Posted by chl1989 > Oct 12, 2016 12:56 AM | Report Abuse

if not wrong, Q1 average LLDPE price CFR SEA was about USD1100/mt.
Q2 average about USD1200/mt. Q3 average about USD1150/mt.
FYI, LLDPE is used to produce stretch film.

Posted by riskabsorber > 2016-10-12 11:46 | Report Abuse

For YiStock, your article is too detailed with so much technical information. Thanks for your effort. Just not really understand that the chart of resin cost with share price. Do you mean that Q3's profit margin will be squeezed ?

Posted by YiStock > 2016-10-12 12:03 | Report Abuse

Riskabsorber,

Above chart is not resin price, it is the "change" of resin price. i.e. up or down.

Point 1 and Point A represented Q2 2016, the gross profit margin has already been squeezed in Q2. That's why the gross profit drop in Q2 2016 even though the revenue registered was higher Q-to-Q and Y-O-Y.

For Q3 2016, i personally anticipated an "expansion" of gross profit margin back to normal or higher as cost past through usually delayed 1 quarter.

The similar has happened in year 2004 quarter 4 if not mistaken.



Posted by riskabsorber > Oct 12, 2016 11:46 AM | Report Abuse

For YiStock, your article is too detailed with so much technical information. Thanks for your effort. Just not really understand that the chart of resin cost with share price. Do you mean that Q3's profit margin will be squeezed ?

Posted by valuelurker > 2016-10-12 18:34 | Report Abuse

Sounds like another bookworm...at least attempt a sensitivity analysis not this koon-based short-term profit forecast

Posted by joekit > 2016-10-13 09:18 | Report Abuse

after posting this article the share price of tguan collapse.lol

Posted by ahbeng77 > 2016-10-13 09:19 | Report Abuse

not really understand what you trying to say! Anyway, is a good try!

Posted by popo92 > 2016-10-19 00:42 | Report Abuse

Good effort, Yistock. Many negatives point has been converted into positive views. Hope your optimistic parts coming true anyway!

Posted by YiStock > 2016-10-19 07:33 | Report Abuse

Please do not follow me. I'm extra patient with the companies i invested in.

Above is just my own forecast. It may or may not be true. I'm more fancy to the business itself then the share price up and down. And i'm pretty sure i only know the biz, the most, 10% only.

So, i'm considered high risk taker.