Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2016-12-17 13:35 | Report Abuse

Bravo! Another concern is Airasia's cashflow. After another 1b is taken, low on cash reserve.

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-17 13:45 | Report Abuse

supersaiyan, no cash need to be spend, just some accounting exercise.
If there is any, probably is all owing by IAA to AAC have to transfer to MAA, as AAC going to be spinned-off soon.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2016-12-17 14:19 | Report Abuse

oic

Posted by Apollo Ang > 2016-12-17 15:46 | Report Abuse

air asia stock still 2.50,so damn expensive shu be less than RM 2.00 now. USD up,oil price up.profit sure will down next quarter

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-17 15:47 | Report Abuse

Cruger, I checked that too.It wouldn't, as per accouting standard MFRS128.
Why after last year subscription, MAA straight away book a RM 625 million loss? That's because IAA has accumulated losses more than what MAA has invested before last year subscription. MFRS128 allow for mother company not to recognise any other losses more than money they have previously invested. In other word, when mother company invest more, mother company must immediately recognise all those previous unrecognised losses.

The accumulated unrecognised loss up to 2Q15 is RM474.2 million, while in 3Q15 the 49% of current loss is RM 155.7 million. When MAA invest (via PCS) IDR 2,058 billion in IAA in 3Q15, they must now recognise those unrecognised losses, up to IDR 2,058 billion.

I will paste the MFRS128 in the article above with this explanation.

Posted by cruger12345 > 2016-12-17 16:15 | Report Abuse

Valuegrowth .. Thank you for your explanation. That helps a lot. Appreciate that.

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-17 16:38 | Report Abuse

learn a lot from you too =)

Posted by r°Moi > 2016-12-17 16:44 | Report Abuse

.


Post 1st PCS... post Q315... post 1st PCS exhaustion... from Q415 to Q316 there is accumulated losses isnt it??


Anyway... r°Moi is lazy... you check and see... if there is anomaly... when IAA is in shareholders fund deficit... MAA can recognise profits?


.

Posted by Apollo Ang > 2016-12-17 16:49 | Report Abuse

quickly sell airasia before next year TP of RM 2.00

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-17 16:59 | Report Abuse

rMoi, yes there are losses in 4Q15 & 2Q16, and profit in 1Q16 & 3Q16. All of them have been recognised.

Posted by r°Moi > 2016-12-17 17:03 | Report Abuse

.

Post 1st PCS... post Q315... post 1st PCS exhaustion... from Q415 to Q316 there is accumulated losses isnt it??


There is net accumulated losses isnt it??


Post 1st PCS exhaustion... cost of investment would be 0 isnt it?

.

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-17 17:08 | Report Abuse

But also take note a small trick : based from available report, FY2015 is loss making, however in 1Q16 MAA recognise about RM 119 million profit from FY2015, which mean the losses in FY2015 is actually much lesser than what we know now. The answer will disclose in 4Q2016, when they indicate in comparison table.

Posted by SALAM > 2016-12-17 17:11 | Report Abuse

Bravo, with the current scenario, do you think there is still unearthed value @ RM2.50

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-17 17:15 | Report Abuse

Yes, should be 0 but they continue to recognise, not consistent enough, but it would make the figure more conservative as it reduce MAA's profit.
They may have know something when preparing FY2015 result but choose to recognise the loss. If incoming FY2016 result didn't reverse/reduce the 4Q15 loss, then there is something wrong, MAA may quietly invest more in IAA last year but didn't disclose it.

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-17 17:19 | Report Abuse

Salam, I believe with what TF said, AA worth RM6 per share, but that's before his private placement and depreciate of ringgit from RM4.10 to RM4.47.
After private placement and ringgit depreciation, it worth about RM4.00.

Posted by r°Moi > 2016-12-17 17:19 | Report Abuse

So you are saying in MAAs balance sheet the cost of investment in IAA is negative??

Posted by SALAM > 2016-12-17 17:21 | Report Abuse

GREAT !! Bro, Appreciate

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-17 17:56 | Report Abuse

Not for now.
As MAA recognise RM 119 million (or IDR 392.7 billion, from FY2015) in 1Q16, that mean the total losses for IAA in FY2015 must have reduced by IDR 800 billion. As MAA already recognise all previous losses up to 3Q15, the combine of 800 billion with TTM results we know make the TTM IAA result become a profit of IDR 159 billion.

Posted by r°Moi > 2016-12-17 18:16 | Report Abuse

Suddenly... reduced by 800b

r°Moi is lazy... to go check and see... hope your figures have high accuracy

Posted by Apollo Ang > 2016-12-17 22:13 | Report Abuse

next year should be bad for air asia, a lot of their loan is in USD, ringgit low many msian think twice about travelling,oil up to average 50 now bad for air asia. likely to fall to below RM 2.00 next year. better sell before it's too late

Posted by RainT > 2016-12-18 10:59 | Report Abuse

The oil price aa already hedge 75% at usd50 per barrel
Forex they also hedge some
Study first before comment la

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-18 11:10 | Report Abuse

Apollo, Net gearing of AirAsia have reduced from peak of 2.50 in 2014 to current level of 1.47. Including RM1,006 mil private placement from TF&KM, it would be 1.12.
If AirAsia continue to reduce USD debt at TTM rate (average RM 658 mil net repayment per quarter) and make RM 400 mil PAT in 4Q16, the net gearing will reduce to about 1.

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-18 11:14 | Report Abuse

By end of this year, the NTA of AirAsia will be around RM2.20, so I don't share the same view with you. Anyway, if you think RM2 is fair value of AirAsia, you could wait for it, =)

Posted by 股海無涯 > 2016-12-19 09:46 | Report Abuse

i think Valuegrowth analysis is right with support of fact and figure, salute. after all, just some accounting games from AA. what i concern more is cashflow, and same like last time, actually no cash outflow at all occur on this PCS. and infact, i believe there will be net cash inflow from indonesia 2017.

Posted by cruger12345 > 2016-12-19 12:19 | Report Abuse

After some thoyught, I must say that this is a very smart move. The PSC could be converted into AAI share. Once AAI enlarge it share during IPO, I think its MAA share will be more than 49%... probably 96% is all the PSC is to be converted. Then during IPO, MAA just sell the share into the market to comply with the 49% rule. That could fetch higher price than the invested money ( PSC which is actually money due to MAA ). But of course that is just a wild guess. I doubt the 51% major share holder will agree with that. But who knows. In corporate world it is big fish eat small fish.

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-19 13:34 | Report Abuse

The conversion doesn't need IAA's approval as stated in the t&c.
During the non-redemption period of the Series 2 issuance, the Subscriber shall have the right (but not the obligation), at its absolute discretion and opinion, to convert the whole or a portion of the outstanding amount of the securities, into fully paid-equity shares of IAA, at IDR 1,000,000 par value or at such par value then applicable due to change(s).

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-19 13:35 | Report Abuse

I think Indonesia law is at any time MAA cannot hold more than 50%.

Posted by cruger12345 > 2016-12-19 14:41 | Report Abuse

Yeap .... aggree ... they can still do it at the IPO ... convert PSC into share and then sell it to the public and pare it down to 49% during IPO

Posted by cruger12345 > 2016-12-19 18:27 | Report Abuse

as on today AA group flied 57.25 millins passengers. From Q1 to Q3 2016 total pasengers carried are ( 40.7 mil with average 13.57 millions per Q ). hence by right the Q4 passengers carried are about 16.55 millions passengers. Hence Q4 shall be very good...

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-19 22:19 | Report Abuse

I am thinking whether those number inclusive of AAX passengers, as some of photo show destination only operate by AAX. But if that the case, the result will be very bad, which i think highly unlikely when the PLF so high.

Posted by cruger12345 > 2016-12-20 09:37 | Report Abuse

I think unlikely. Even though it is the max AAX can carry is 1.5 mil which is it seat capacity. If it incused AAX then the figure shall be around 16.55-1.20 = 15.35 which is still 13% higer than the average. Let hope for the best.

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-20 10:17 | Report Abuse

AirAsia share is falling again, very good chance to buy low. Think to buy even more.

Posted by valuegrowth > 2016-12-20 10:21 | Report Abuse

never thought that airasia will drop so much again. Peter Lynch is right, we will always have chance to buy lower, patient is key.

Posted by iloveshare128 > 2016-12-20 10:40 | Report Abuse

nice sharing... i am buying more AA now...